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      壹 造假被嚴(yán)厲懲罰

      近期，A股的一家上市公司因為財務(wù)造假而被處罰。連帶責(zé)任下公司的實際控制人、董事會秘書、獨立董事以及相關(guān)的中介機(jī)構(gòu)包括會計師事務(wù)所和律師事務(wù)所等都受到牽連，需要支付巨額賠償金。市場歡呼A股市場上造假者終于能夠得到應(yīng)有懲罰。同時，這一案例也意味著擔(dān)任上市公司獨董需承擔(dān)法律風(fēng)險。周四爆出一家上市公司獨董辭職的消息。今后在A股市場這樣的新聞可能會接二連三, 造假在A股也將變得越來越難。

      貳 美國如何處理造假？

      美股市場上也曾發(fā)生過財務(wù)造假事件。2001年，安然公司財務(wù)造假，CEO和CFO被判刑入獄，為安然公司提供審計服務(wù)的安達(dá)信會計師事務(wù)所破產(chǎn)倒閉。投資者通過集體訴訟獲得了高達(dá)71.4億美元的和解賠償金。安然公司的高管、中介機(jī)構(gòu)以及投資銀行都受到重罰。美國花旗集團(tuán)、摩根大通和美洲銀行被判向安然受害投資者分別賠付20億美金、22億美金和6900萬美金。

      叁 《薩班斯法案》

      2002年美國出臺了《薩班斯法案》，該法案規(guī)定：對編制違法違規(guī)財務(wù)報告的刑事責(zé)任，最高可處500萬美元罰款或者20年監(jiān)禁。篡改文件的刑事責(zé)任，最高可處20年監(jiān)禁。證券欺詐的刑事責(zé)任，最高可處25年監(jiān)禁。此外，還設(shè)立了對上市公司欺詐行為的舉報獎，舉報者可以獲得罰款金額10-30%的獎勵金。

      肆 美國退市率高

      美國對造假行為的嚴(yán)厲處罰使得上市公司意識到：業(yè)績不好大不了退市；但是如果造假，那就要有坐穿牢底的思想準(zhǔn)備。因此，對造假的嚴(yán)厲懲處也在很大程度上推動了美國上市公司的退市步伐。根據(jù)世界證券交易所聯(lián)合會，從2007年到2018年10月，納斯達(dá)克上市公司退市2776家，退市率為7.6%；紐交所上市公司退市1823家，退市率為6.6%。

      伍 我國退市率有望提升

      相比而言，A股和港股的退市率均較低。同一期間，上證指數(shù)、深成指和恒生指數(shù)的退市率分別為0.3%、0.1%和1.2%。我國未來推行全面注冊制。注冊制中一個重要環(huán)節(jié)就是退市制度。隨著懲罰造假等制度安排日趨完善，退市在A股市場也將會成為一個常見的現(xiàn)象。

      陸 A股缺乏方向

      A股和港股下跌。A股國防軍工、鋼鐵和有色漲幅領(lǐng)先，而前期表現(xiàn)較好的傳媒、休閑服務(wù)和家用電器領(lǐng)跌。A股和港股當(dāng)前都缺乏明確的方向，板塊輪動也很快。美股3季報即將發(fā)布完成，80%的公司業(yè)績超預(yù)期。美股科技股上漲。

I. Financial fraud was punished

Recently an A-share company has attracted market focus. Due to financial fraud its owner, secretary of the board, independent directors along with its audit firm and legal firm were sentenced to pay a big amount of money to its stock investors. On Thursday an independent director of a listed company resigned, which might be due to the legal joint responsibility. We foresee that there might be more independent directors to resign from the listed company as they do not want to shoulder the potential legal risks.

II. Financial fraud in the US 

Financial fraud also happened in the US. In 2001 Enron Corporation was found to make financial fraud.Its CEO, CFO along with audit firm and investment banks were sentenced to pay US$740 million to investors. In 2002, the US issued Sarbanes-Oxley Act. Under this Act those who make financial fraud would be sentenced up to 20 years and be fined as much as US$ 5 million. Moreover, those whistleblowers would be awarded 10-30% of those fined money. 

III. High delisting ratio in the US

From then on, financial fraud has become rare in the US. Those senior managers and owners of a company are faced with delisting due to lackluster performance. But it would be better than to be in jail due to financial fraud. Actually from 2007 to October 2018 the delisting ratio of Nasdaq Stock Exchange was 7.6%. An aggregated 2776 companies were delisted from Nasdaq. The delisting ratio in New York Stock Exchange (NYSE)was 6.6% and an aggregated 1823 companies delisted from NYSE. 

IV. Delisting in A-share would become common in the future 

Compared with the US the delisting ratio in both A-share and HK market was low. It was 0.3%, 0.1%and 1.2% for Shanghai Stock Exchange, Shenzhen Stock Exchange and HK Stock Exchange respectively during the same period. China is on the way to a comprehensive registering system in A-share. The punishment for wrongdoings in listed companies would encourage more companies to choose delisting in the future.

V. No direction for A-share at this moment

Both A-share and HK stocks fell.Both markets are at a loss as to which direction to go. The US tech stocks rose. 80% of those SP 500 companies that reported 3Q2021 earnings beat expectation. The tech stocks rallied.

聲明：本市場點評由北京楓瑞資產(chǎn)管理有限公司（以下簡稱“楓瑞資產(chǎn)”）“楓瑞視點”微信公眾號提供和擁有版權(quán)，授權(quán)上海海獅資產(chǎn)管理有限公司轉(zhuǎn)載。在任何情況下文中信息或所表述的意見不構(gòu)成對任何人的投資建議，楓瑞資產(chǎn)不對任何人因使用本文中的內(nèi)容所引發(fā)的損失負(fù)任何責(zé)任。未經(jīng)楓瑞資產(chǎn)書面授權(quán)，本文中的內(nèi)容均不得以任何侵犯楓瑞資產(chǎn)版權(quán)的方式使用和轉(zhuǎn)載。市場有風(fēng)險，投資需謹(jǐn)慎。

      壹 別人家的股市

      我們在2021年8月發(fā)表了別人家的股市。自8月以來，別人家的股市表現(xiàn)越來越好，而A股和港股則表現(xiàn)持續(xù)落后。在全球16個主要國家和地區(qū)的指數(shù)中，有6個國家和地區(qū)指數(shù)年初以來漲幅超過20%，法國、俄羅斯、印度SENSEX30、標(biāo)普500、納斯達(dá)克和中國臺灣地區(qū)分別上漲28.8%、27.4%、25.7%、25.2%、23.9%和20.2%。4個國家的指數(shù)上漲超過10%但低于20%，德國DAX、道瓊斯、英國富時100和澳大利亞標(biāo)普200指數(shù)分別上漲18.4%、18.1%、13.4%和11.9%。上漲低于10%的是日經(jīng)225、韓國綜合指數(shù)、深成指、上證指數(shù)，分別上漲8.2%、3.7%、1.9%和1.7%。恒生指數(shù)和巴西股指是僅有的兩個下跌的股指，分別下跌5.8%和12.3%。

      貳 上漲有上漲的理由

      發(fā)達(dá)國家股市漲幅較高，一方面是發(fā)達(dá)國家一直保持著支持經(jīng)濟(jì)的寬松政策，對股市提供了流動性支持。具體可參見為什么美元和人民幣同步走強(qiáng)？另一方面，發(fā)達(dá)國家的經(jīng)濟(jì)周期慢于我國經(jīng)濟(jì)周期。今年前三季度，歐美日的經(jīng)濟(jì)仍處于庫存周期上行期，企業(yè)業(yè)績增速喜人，支撐股市上漲。但3季度以后，發(fā)達(dá)國家的經(jīng)濟(jì)周期也會逐漸進(jìn)入下行期，這意味著股市也可能會面臨下行壓力。但是，這種下行也要視經(jīng)濟(jì)走勢。近期，美國通過了1.2萬億美金（約7.7萬億人民幣）的基建法案，而日本也將推出價值2.4萬億人民幣一攬子支持經(jīng)濟(jì)計劃。因此未來即使經(jīng)濟(jì)下行，可能也會較平緩。俄羅斯股市走強(qiáng)應(yīng)與原油價格上漲緊密相關(guān)，而印度股市走強(qiáng)則是強(qiáng)有力的貨幣政策支撐。

      叁 對A股和港股無需過度悲觀

      A股走平，港股小熊市，主要是因為我國相對嚴(yán)謹(jǐn)?shù)呢泿耪吆拓斦咭约敖?jīng)濟(jì)進(jìn)入下行周期。7月份以來的一些政策變化也引發(fā)了市場風(fēng)險偏好的降低。我們預(yù)判經(jīng)濟(jì)應(yīng)該在明年1-2季度企穩(wěn)，之前預(yù)期的刺激政策也會隨著經(jīng)濟(jì)的下行壓力增加而逐漸出臺。因此，當(dāng)前估值水平下，我們認(rèn)為對市場不應(yīng)該過于悲觀。

      肆 美股調(diào)整

      A股縮量上漲，港股縮量下跌。A股26個行業(yè)中，19個行業(yè)上漲，7個行業(yè)下跌。新能源板塊領(lǐng)漲，銀行、食品飲料和農(nóng)林牧漁跌幅居前。因勞動力短缺和材料成本上升，美國10月新屋開工數(shù)下跌0.7%，折年率降至152萬套。受經(jīng)濟(jì)數(shù)據(jù)低于預(yù)期影響，美股調(diào)整。股神巴菲特?fù)?jù)報道連續(xù)四個季度凈賣出股票。

I. Other people's stock market 

We published “Other people’s stock market”別人家的股市 in August 2021. From then on major stock market indexes continued to diverge. Among the 16 global major stock indexes 6 rose above 20% year-to-date (the same below). They are France,Russia, India Sensex30, SP500, Nasdaq and China Taiwan, which rose  28.8%、27.4%、25.7%、25.2%、23.9% and 20.2% respectively. Four stock indexes rose between 10-20%. They are Germany DAX, Dow Jones, FTSE100 and Australia SP200, which rose 18.4%、18.1%、13.4% and 11.9%.  Fourstock indexes rose less than 10%. They are Nikkei 225,  South Korea, Shenzhen Composite Index and Shanghai Composite Index, which rose 8.2%、3.7%、1.9% and 1.7% respectively. There are only two stock indexes falling. They are Brazil and Hang Seng Index, which fell 12.3% and 5.8% respectively. 

II. The reasons behind the rally

That developed nations performed well this year was due to both supporting monetary policy and economic cycle. Their economies are on an upward stage of an inventory cycle before 3Q2021. Yet from 3Q2021 developed nations would go on the downward stage of an inventory cycle. Hence, their stock markets might be pressured in the future. Russia stocks performed well due to the rising oil prices. India stock market was boosted mainly by easing monetary policy. 

III. No need to be too pessimistic 

The lackluster performance of A-share and HK stocks was caused by stringent monetary and fiscal policy partly. Also China’s economy was on a downward stage of an inventory cycle. Moreover, some regulations from July decreased market risk preference to some extent. We are optimistic that supporting policies would come out eventually with the economy activities cooling down further. Hence, one should not be too pessimistic about China's stock market.

IV. The US stocks corrected

A-share rose while HK stocks fell with contracted volume.The October housingstarts in the US came in lower than expected due to high building material costs and labor shortage. The US stocks corrected. It was reported that Warren Buffett has been selling stocks this year.

聲明：本市場點評由北京楓瑞資產(chǎn)管理有限公司（以下簡稱“楓瑞資產(chǎn)”）“楓瑞視點”微信公眾號提供和擁有版權(quán)，授權(quán)上海海獅資產(chǎn)管理有限公司轉(zhuǎn)載。在任何情況下文中信息或所表述的意見不構(gòu)成對任何人的投資建議，楓瑞資產(chǎn)不對任何人因使用本文中的內(nèi)容所引發(fā)的損失負(fù)任何責(zé)任。未經(jīng)楓瑞資產(chǎn)書面授權(quán)，本文中的內(nèi)容均不得以任何侵犯楓瑞資產(chǎn)版權(quán)的方式使用和轉(zhuǎn)載。市場有風(fēng)險，投資需謹(jǐn)慎。

      壹美元上漲

      近期美元和人民幣同步上漲引起很多投資者的關(guān)注。截止11月16日，美元指數(shù)上漲到95以上，創(chuàng)下2020年7月以來的新高。年初至今，美元指數(shù)上漲6.2%。美元上漲主要是受到加息預(yù)期的推動。當(dāng)前市場期待明年7月份美聯(lián)儲第一次加息?；仡?013年的第一次縮減債券規(guī)模，美元指數(shù)也是在加息預(yù)期升溫后開始直線上漲。具體請參見這次也許不一樣。

      貳 歐洲和日本量化寬松政策持續(xù)

      此次美元指數(shù)上漲與歐元和日元走弱也有一定關(guān)系。不同于美聯(lián)儲回收流動性的舉措，歐央行和日本央行都表示將會持續(xù)支持經(jīng)濟(jì)，量化寬松無止境。歐央行早前更是提到了2011年的歐債危機(jī)中所犯的提早收回支持經(jīng)濟(jì)的錯誤，表示絕不會再次犯下相同的錯誤。日本央行總裁黑田東彥強(qiáng)調(diào)，央行已準(zhǔn)備好維持大規(guī)模的刺激措施。自去年疫情以來，日本央行便開足馬力買入日本股市，推動股指一路上行，日經(jīng)225指數(shù)最大漲幅已超過88%。11月12日，日經(jīng)新聞報道，日本政府計劃實施規(guī)模超40萬億日元（約合人民幣2.24萬億元）的新一輪經(jīng)濟(jì)刺激計劃，這一規(guī)模接近日本2020年4月創(chuàng)紀(jì)錄的新冠援助方案。

      叁 與經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇進(jìn)程有關(guān)

      在2008年全球金融危機(jī)之后，美、歐、日三個發(fā)達(dá)經(jīng)濟(jì)體的經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇進(jìn)程就以美國最快，日本次之，而歐洲最慢。此次新冠危機(jī)，從三個經(jīng)濟(jì)體目前的情況看，仍然是美國表現(xiàn)最佳。美元指數(shù)中歐元和日元占比是最大的兩個貨幣，分別為57.6% 和13.6%。鑒于歐洲和日本持續(xù)的寬松政策和相對緩慢的經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇進(jìn)程，未來歐元和日元承壓而美元走強(qiáng)是大概率事件。

      肆 人民幣走強(qiáng)

      近期，人民幣兌美元匯率持續(xù)上漲，達(dá)到6.38，為2021年6月以來的最高水平。人民幣匯率上漲應(yīng)與10月份的經(jīng)濟(jì)數(shù)據(jù)表現(xiàn)超預(yù)期有關(guān)，具體請參見如果經(jīng)濟(jì)增速放緩...。同時，近期中美關(guān)系不斷出現(xiàn)改善信號，外資對中國資產(chǎn)的熱情重新點燃。這也是人民幣匯率走強(qiáng)的原因之一。

      伍 喝酒吃藥行情

      A股繼續(xù)調(diào)整，港股上漲。醫(yī)藥和消費板塊表現(xiàn)較好，喝酒吃藥行情再現(xiàn)。而周期行業(yè)和前期熱門板塊跌幅較大。北京交易所股票在經(jīng)歷周一的大幅上漲后，周二大多調(diào)整。港股連續(xù)6個交易日上漲，前期備受打擊的醫(yī)藥、科技和教育板塊漲幅領(lǐng)先。美國10月零售數(shù)據(jù)超預(yù)期，顯示盡管通脹水平很高，但消費者依然在消費。美股上漲。

I. The US dollar was strong

Recently both RMB exchange rate against the US dollar and the US dollar index rallied. The US dollar index was above 95 on Tuesday and rose 6.2% year-to-date. The recent rally of the US dollar index was mainly driven by the expectation of interest rate lift in 2022. Currently market expects the Federal Reserve to raise interest rate in July 2022. In the first taper in 2013 and 2014 the US dollar index began to rally in the mid-2014 when market began to price in the interest rate lift expectation. 

II. The European Central Bank would maintain its supporting policies 

Moreover, the US withdrew liquidity earlier than Europe and Japan. The US dollar index is composed of 57.6% Euro and 13.6% Japan Yen and other currencies. The Euro and Japan Yen are the largest two components of the US dollar index. Recently the European Central Bank has reiterated its support for economy and said that it would not repeat the mistake made in 2011. In 2011 due to that the European Central Bank exited from quantitative easing policy earlier than expected, the Euro economy fell into depression again after the 2008 global financial crises.

III. So would Japan

The Japanese Bank also expressed the opinion that it would inject liquidity into economy if needed without hesitation. Moreover, Japanese government brought up with a new stimulus package valued at Japanese Yen 40 trillion (RMB 2.24 trillion). Given the quantitative easing policy of Europe and Japan, the Euro and Japanese Yen would be faced with downward pressure and the US dollar would strengthen. 

IV. RMB strengthen is supported by economy 

The RMB against the US dollar has been strong recently and reached 6.38 on Tuesday, which was the level in June 2020. It should be due to the better-than-expected economy datain October. Also international investors showed enthusiasm to Chinese assets.

V. Spirits and medicine sector rose in A-share

A-share fell while HK stocks rose. The spirits and medicine sector led A-share and HK market. HK stocks rose for six days in arow. The US retail sales in October came in higher than expected, which shows that despite the high inflation the US consumers still spent. The US stocks rose due to the better economic data. 

聲明：本市場點評由北京楓瑞資產(chǎn)管理有限公司（以下簡稱“楓瑞資產(chǎn)”）“楓瑞視點”微信公眾號提供和擁有版權(quán)，授權(quán)上海海獅資產(chǎn)管理有限公司轉(zhuǎn)載。在任何情況下文中信息或所表述的意見不構(gòu)成對任何人的投資建議，楓瑞資產(chǎn)不對任何人因使用本文中的內(nèi)容所引發(fā)的損失負(fù)任何責(zé)任。未經(jīng)楓瑞資產(chǎn)書面授權(quán)，本文中的內(nèi)容均不得以任何侵犯楓瑞資產(chǎn)版權(quán)的方式使用和轉(zhuǎn)載。市場有風(fēng)險，投資需謹(jǐn)慎。

      壹 周一A股和港股調(diào)整

      周一A股和港股并沒有延續(xù)上周的強(qiáng)勁走勢雙雙調(diào)整。A股創(chuàng)業(yè)板跌幅居前，有可能是受到北京證券交易所開市的影響。房地產(chǎn)板塊也在上周大幅上漲后調(diào)整，A股和港股房地產(chǎn)板塊分別下跌0.9%和0.8%。但是，A股與房地產(chǎn)相關(guān)的建材、家電和家居板塊均延續(xù)上漲態(tài)勢，這些板塊在很大程度上與存量地產(chǎn)帶來的更新需求有關(guān)。受到房地產(chǎn)板塊走勢拖累，這些板塊的估值也達(dá)到較低水平。

      貳 十月經(jīng)濟(jì)數(shù)據(jù)喜憂參半

      10月份經(jīng)濟(jì)數(shù)據(jù)顯示工業(yè)生產(chǎn)和消費均超市場預(yù)期。10月份社會消費品零售總額數(shù)據(jù)同比增長4.9%，與2020年兩年平均增速為4.6%，高于市場預(yù)期。但4.6%的同比增速仍是1995年有數(shù)據(jù)以來的最低水平。工業(yè)增加值同比增速為3.5%，與2020年兩年平均為5.2%，仍處在歷史較低水平。投資方面，基建投資增速同比轉(zhuǎn)正，但是因缺乏優(yōu)質(zhì)基建項目，對未來基建投資增速的回升市場沒有很高的預(yù)期。1-10月房地產(chǎn)開發(fā)投資同比增長7.2%，較1-9月份增速8.8%回落?？紤]到目前房企的資金緊張狀況，預(yù)計未來半年到一年房地產(chǎn)開發(fā)投資有可能會持續(xù)回落，對經(jīng)濟(jì)也會造成拖累。制造業(yè)投資向好，1-10月份制造業(yè)投資同比增長14.2%，兩年平均為4.45%，恢復(fù)到2019年3月的水平。綜上，10月的經(jīng)濟(jì)數(shù)據(jù)有喜有憂。但是，工業(yè)增加值、消費及制造業(yè)投資超預(yù)期能否持續(xù)到年底可能存疑。

      叁 刺激政策有可能出臺

      考慮到未來房地產(chǎn)市場仍有下行壓力，政府可能會考慮出臺政策措施，從而保持經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的穩(wěn)定性。有可能受益于政策刺激的板塊包括消費、制造業(yè)投資相關(guān)板塊等。

      肆 標(biāo)普500每股收益與中國GDP的相關(guān)性為90%

      根據(jù)美國銀行策略分析師，中國占標(biāo)普500上市公司收入比例平均為5%，但在有些上市公司可能會高達(dá)60%。中國中產(chǎn)階級的人口超過美國總?cè)丝?。對美國公司而言，中國市場空間巨大。同時，這些公司利用中國的低制造成本取得了較快的盈利增速。過去30年，標(biāo)普500上市公司利潤率擴(kuò)張的80%來自于全球化。當(dāng)前中國經(jīng)濟(jì)放緩并沒有完全反應(yīng)到美股的估值上。來自中國的銷售收入占比排名的前50家標(biāo)普500公司，其當(dāng)前估值高于歷史平均估值一個標(biāo)準(zhǔn)差，因為這些公司的盈利增速要快于其他美國的跨國公司以及本土公司。

I. Both A-share and HK stocks corrected on Monday

Chinext Board fell the most, likely due to the opening of Beijing Stock Exchange. Property sector fell 0.9% and 0.8% respectively in A-share and HK market respectively after last week rally.But construction material, home appliance and furniture sector rose. These sectors are correlated with existing homes and their valuation has been pressed to very low levels due to market concern on property sector. 

II. The October economic data came in mixed 

Industrial value-added and retail sales were above expectation but still at low levels in history. Industrial value-added grew 3.5% year-on-year(yoy) in October. Combined 2020 and 2021 industrial value-added grew 5.2% yoy,which is still at a relatively low level in history. Retail sales grew 4.9% yoy. Combined 2020 and 2021 retail sales grew 4.6% yoy, which is the lowest level from 1995 when the data began to be released. Manufacturing investment grew 14.2% from January to October 2021. Combined 2020 and 2021 manufacturing investment grew 4.45% yoy, which was the level in March 2019. Property investment grew 7.2% from January to October 2021, down from 8.8% in September. 

III. There might be stimulus measures 

Given the capital constrains of property developers, property investment might see declining growth rate in the next 6-12 months. We judge that government would bring up with more stimulus measures, given the down pressure due to the property sector’s slowdown. Consumption and manufacturing should benefit from these policies.

IV. The US stocks correlate with China economy 

China accounts for an average of 5% of SP 500 companies’ sales and more than 60% for some. According to Bank of America the correlation between SP 500 earnings per share and China economy is 90%. Also more than 80% of margin expansion for the SP500 is due to globalization over the last 30 years. Currently those companies ranked at the top 50 based on their revenue from China are valued at one standard deviation higher than their historical average and also higher than other multinationals and domestic companies in the US.

聲明：本市場點評由北京楓瑞資產(chǎn)管理有限公司（以下簡稱“楓瑞資產(chǎn)”）“楓瑞視點”微信公眾號提供和擁有版權(quán)，授權(quán)上海海獅資產(chǎn)管理有限公司轉(zhuǎn)載。在任何情況下文中信息或所表述的意見不構(gòu)成對任何人的投資建議，楓瑞資產(chǎn)不對任何人因使用本文中的內(nèi)容所引發(fā)的損失負(fù)任何責(zé)任。未經(jīng)楓瑞資產(chǎn)書面授權(quán)，本文中的內(nèi)容均不得以任何侵犯楓瑞資產(chǎn)版權(quán)的方式使用和轉(zhuǎn)載。市場有風(fēng)險，投資需謹(jǐn)慎。

      壹 A股和港股邊際企穩(wěn)

      上周因為10月社融數(shù)據(jù)呈現(xiàn)企穩(wěn)跡象、央行推出碳減排貸款以及政府對房地產(chǎn)行業(yè)的政策有放松跡象，A股和港股上漲。同時周末傳出中美關(guān)系有進(jìn)一步改善的跡象和外資在3季度增持中概股的消息。從11月到明年1月份，A股處于業(yè)績真空期。根據(jù)以往經(jīng)驗，A股在經(jīng)歷了近兩個月的調(diào)整之后很有可能進(jìn)入冬季躁動期。我們認(rèn)為從情緒面上看，A股確實已經(jīng)到了一個相對低點，疊加政策面的刺激，對年底前的走勢可以樂觀一些。

      貳 廣義貨幣增速和社融企穩(wěn)

      從貨幣供應(yīng)量的角度看，10月份的社融存量同比增速保持在9月份的水平為10%，M2的同比增速為8.7%，高于9月份的9.3%，表明信用擴(kuò)張應(yīng)該已經(jīng)開始。這也可以從居民購房貸款審批加快以及專項債發(fā)行提速等消息中得到印證。

      叁 狹義貨幣增速走弱

      我們判斷社融和M2的增速可能會保持穩(wěn)定向上，但M1的增速很可能會繼續(xù)走弱。10月份M1同比增速為2.8%，為2020年2月以來的最低水平。從2010年至今11年間，M1同比增速只在2014年1月、2018年10月到2019年2月、2020年4月低于當(dāng)前水平，M1同比增速在這四個時間段分別為1.2%、0.4-2.7%和0%。M1同比增速在2020年11月、12月和2021年1月份分別為10%、8.6%和14.7%，處在較高水平。因此，我們判斷未來三個月M1的同比增速還會下行，并很有可能在2022年1月份也接近0%。彼時M1同比增速見到最低點。

      肆 股市低點可期

      對股市而言，M1同比增速達(dá)到最低點通常會預(yù)示股市企穩(wěn)或者開始反彈。歷史上看，M1同比增速與上證指數(shù)低點基本重合或者領(lǐng)先幾個月的時間。據(jù)此判斷，上證指數(shù)在明年年初或1季度見底的概率較大。投資人如果想?yún)⑴c當(dāng)前的反彈，我們認(rèn)為還是尋找估值和基本面匹配的行業(yè)，如大金融、地產(chǎn)相關(guān)產(chǎn)業(yè)鏈等。成長股中也有很多業(yè)績增速較高且估值較低的品種，需要自下而上進(jìn)行挖掘。

      伍 上周A股和港股領(lǐng)漲全球

      受到政策利好因素刺激，A股和港股上周表現(xiàn)較好。而俄羅斯和美國三大指數(shù)表現(xiàn)落后。本周北京證券交易所正式開始交易。因北京證券交易所上市公司的估值較科創(chuàng)板和創(chuàng)業(yè)板上市公司的估值水平都低，市場對北交所開業(yè)后的公司股價表現(xiàn)有一定的期待。

I. Stocks rallied due to favorite policies  

Both A-share and HK stocks rallied last week due to that government loosened policy on property sector and that the People’s Bank of China promoted carbon emission loans. Over the weekend it was reported that Sino-US relationship has the possibility of further improvement and that international investors kept buying Chinese big internet giants. Both A-share and HK stocks could continue to rise given the positive policy environment and news catalysts. Yet based on history A-share might still have room to fall after the rally. 

II. ASF and M2 growth rate has reached bottom

In October the Aggregate Social Financing (ASF) rose 10% year-on-year (yoy), which was line with the growth rate in September. This signals that ASF growth rate might have reached bottom.The broad money M2 grew 8.7% yoy in October, which was higher than that in September. This could mean that M2 has bottomed out as well. 

III. M1 growth rate might fall further 

However, the narrow money M1 only grew 2.8% yoy in October. From 2010 there were three times when M1 yoy growth rate was lower than October 2021, which was Jan. 2014, from October 2018 to Feb.2019, and April 2020. M1 grew 10%, 8.6% and 14.7% yoy in Nov. 2020, Dec.2020 and Jan. 2021. Given the high base over these three months, we judge that the yoy growth rate of M1 might not reach the lowest point until Jan. 2022. The low growth point of M1 usually coincides with the low point of Shanghai Composite Index or lead by a couple of months. As such the low of A-share could be seen in 1Q2022. 

IV. Low-valued stocks and growth stocks are good choices

If investors want to participated in the rebound of stocks low-valued stocks such as financials and property etc could be good choices. There are also growth stocks with reasonable valuation which require bottom-up analysis.

V. Stocks in BSE could perform well

HK stocks and A-share led the global stock markets last week.Russia index along with the three major indexes in the US performed worst. Beijing Stock Exchange (BSE) will open on Monday this week. As stocks are valued at a discount in BSE versus those listed in STAR Board and Chinext Board market expects stocks in BSE to perform well.   

聲明：本市場點評由北京楓瑞資產(chǎn)管理有限公司（以下簡稱“楓瑞資產(chǎn)”）“楓瑞視點”微信公眾號提供和擁有版權(quán)，授權(quán)上海海獅資產(chǎn)管理有限公司轉(zhuǎn)載。在任何情況下文中信息或所表述的意見不構(gòu)成對任何人的投資建議，楓瑞資產(chǎn)不對任何人因使用本文中的內(nèi)容所引發(fā)的損失負(fù)任何責(zé)任。未經(jīng)楓瑞資產(chǎn)書面授權(quán)，本文中的內(nèi)容均不得以任何侵犯楓瑞資產(chǎn)版權(quán)的方式使用和轉(zhuǎn)載。市場有風(fēng)險，投資需謹(jǐn)慎。

      壹 房地產(chǎn)板塊大幅上漲

      受政策利好刺激，房地產(chǎn)板塊周四上漲5.85%，漲幅在A股28個行業(yè)中第一，其次是建筑材料和非銀金融，分別上漲5.42%和3.26%。房地產(chǎn)和建筑材料板塊很多公司都上漲了10厘米或者20厘米。

      貳 政策可能不盡如預(yù)期

      市場在歡呼房地產(chǎn)政策放松，但盤后一個關(guān)于某市放松房地產(chǎn)限購的傳聞被證偽。同時，遼寧省住房城鄉(xiāng)建設(shè)廳近日會同相關(guān)部門聯(lián)合印發(fā)《遼寧省持續(xù)整治規(guī)范房地產(chǎn)市場秩序行動方案》，重點整治未依法依規(guī)取得土地即開工建設(shè)，未按期動工或中止開發(fā)建設(shè)導(dǎo)致住宅項目用地構(gòu)成閑置土地，房屋存在滲漏、開裂、空鼓等突出質(zhì)量問題，未按房屋買賣合同約定如期交付，實際交付房屋與樣板間或銷售宣傳資料嚴(yán)重不一致等行為。這說明地方政府對房地產(chǎn)企業(yè)仍然采取比較嚴(yán)厲的監(jiān)管政策，也說明政策并不如市場期望的那樣寬松。

      叁 估值會提升

      我們判斷當(dāng)前政策力度僅是讓房地產(chǎn)企業(yè)能夠活下去，離全面寬松可能還有很長的一段路要走。同時，當(dāng)前放松政策并不會對房地產(chǎn)企業(yè)的基本面產(chǎn)生立竿見影的效果。因為現(xiàn)金流緊張，年底房地產(chǎn)企業(yè)不會積極參加土地拍賣。另外，房地產(chǎn)企業(yè)的銷售和新開工等數(shù)據(jù)在今年4季度和明年1季度也會面臨一定的挑戰(zhàn)，很可能會同比持續(xù)負(fù)增長。市場前期因政策等因素對房地產(chǎn)及相關(guān)板塊如建材家居等極其悲觀，導(dǎo)致這些板塊的估值回落到比較低的水平。我們認(rèn)為寬松政策有助于房地產(chǎn)及相關(guān)板塊估值的提升，隨后板塊應(yīng)等待業(yè)績底的確認(rèn)。

      肆 雙十一銷售情況良好

      阿里巴巴發(fā)布消息稱從11月1日到11日0時45分，已有382個品牌在天貓雙11的成交額超過1億元。京東也在推特上表示，從10月31日晚到11月11日，雙十一的銷售額達(dá)到人民幣3111億元。因為國家對互聯(lián)網(wǎng)企業(yè)的整治，今年雙十一沒有大規(guī)模的宣傳活動。同時，消費者也比較理性，而有些商品可能平時購買更劃算。網(wǎng)購已成為中國消費者一個重要的購物渠道，有沒有雙十一消費者都會在網(wǎng)上買東西。

      伍 美國通脹可能已到頂點

      周三美股科技股反彈。美國10月消費者價格指數(shù)漲幅超預(yù)期，但可能是頂點。作為消費者價格指數(shù)的領(lǐng)先指標(biāo)，干散貨運價指數(shù)在今年10月7日達(dá)到5650的十年多的歷史高點后，持續(xù)下跌。目前已下跌50%，達(dá)到6月以來的低點。

I. Property sector rallied 

A-share rallied on Thursday boosted by easing policies targeted property sector. Property sector rose 5.82%, the best-performing sector in A-share. Building material and non-bank financials were the second and third best-performing sector. Each rose 5.42% and 3.82% respectively. 

II. Policies might not be that favorite 

While market sentiment was boosted by policy, the news that some city loosened property purchasing policy proved to be a fake one. Moreover, Housing and Urban-rural Development Office of Liaoning Province issued “The action plan to continue the comprehensive improvement of housing markets in Liaoning Province” on Wednesday with an aim to punish those property developers that do not buy lands legally, do not build houses as regulated, and whose houses built have quality issues etc. This shows that local governments still regulate property developers strictly. 

III. Valuation would improve 

Nevertheless, the liquidity easing from central government would help improve the valuation levels of property developers and those related sectors such as building material sector etc.These sectors have suffered serious valuation contraction over the last couple of months due to regulation from both central and local governments. But the fundamentals of the property sector would still be faced with challenges in 4Q2021 and 1Q2022. The sales volume and new projects might decline year-on-year. Also property developers are not expected to buy land actively in the coming land auction due to their capital shortage and cash flow issues. It takes time for property developers to see their earnings bottom out.

IV. The inflation in the US might peak

Both A-share and HK stocks rose. The US tech stocks rebounded. Some analysts believed that the final two months of 2021 could see inflation ease as the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) has declined by 50% from its October peak and recently hit its lowest level since June, tracking a decline in global shipping rates. The US consumer price follows BDI closely.  

聲明：本市場點評由北京楓瑞資產(chǎn)管理有限公司（以下簡稱“楓瑞資產(chǎn)”）“楓瑞視點”微信公眾號提供和擁有版權(quán)，授權(quán)上海海獅資產(chǎn)管理有限公司轉(zhuǎn)載。在任何情況下文中信息或所表述的意見不構(gòu)成對任何人的投資建議，楓瑞資產(chǎn)不對任何人因使用本文中的內(nèi)容所引發(fā)的損失負(fù)任何責(zé)任。未經(jīng)楓瑞資產(chǎn)書面授權(quán)，本文中的內(nèi)容均不得以任何侵犯楓瑞資產(chǎn)版權(quán)的方式使用和轉(zhuǎn)載。市場有風(fēng)險，投資需謹(jǐn)慎。