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       壹 股市長(zhǎng)牛的基礎(chǔ)

      美國二戰(zhàn)之后股市長(zhǎng)牛的基礎(chǔ)是科技創(chuàng)新?！秳蛎绹?jīng)濟(jì)史》第三卷分析了美國二戰(zhàn)后的科技創(chuàng)新。一個(gè)很重要的推動(dòng)者是美國二戰(zhàn)時(shí)期最著名的科學(xué)家和工程師之一和“曼哈頓計(jì)劃”的提出者范內(nèi)瓦·布什。他在1945年的報(bào)告《科學(xué)：永無止境的領(lǐng)域》中指出基礎(chǔ)研究是經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的最終源泉，提倡建立獨(dú)立的聯(lián)邦管理機(jī)構(gòu)，負(fù)責(zé)所有國防和非國防領(lǐng)域的基礎(chǔ)研究方面的投資，建議基礎(chǔ)軍事研究的發(fā)展方向是民用研究。

       貳 美國聯(lián)邦政府大力投入基礎(chǔ)研究

      二戰(zhàn)后，美國聯(lián)邦在國家研發(fā)總投資中占比巨大。1945到1969年，當(dāng)時(shí)世界上除美國外最大的四個(gè)工業(yè)國家--德國、法國、英國和日本在研究與開發(fā)上的累計(jì)總投資為11.3萬億美元，而美國為25.6萬億美元。1995年，聯(lián)邦政府投入到基礎(chǔ)研究中的資金占總投資的58%。

        叁  大學(xué)在基礎(chǔ)研究中發(fā)揮重要作用

        大學(xué)作為基礎(chǔ)研究項(xiàng)目的承擔(dān)者的重要性也提升了。統(tǒng)計(jì)顯示，1996年美國大學(xué)承擔(dān)了美國61%的基礎(chǔ)研究項(xiàng)目。而新興的小型公司在戰(zhàn)后美國創(chuàng)新體制中發(fā)揮了重要作用。這主要是因?yàn)榇髮W(xué)、政府和不少私營企業(yè)建立的大型基礎(chǔ)研究部門孕育了技術(shù)創(chuàng)新，這些技術(shù)隨著研究人員創(chuàng)立公司并將其商業(yè)化而走向社會(huì)。這種現(xiàn)象在生物技術(shù)、計(jì)算機(jī)和微電子領(lǐng)域特別明顯。這些新興公司的發(fā)展也離不開完備的私人融資體制，美國風(fēng)險(xiǎn)資本從20世紀(jì)50年代開始就對(duì)從事新興技術(shù)的公司進(jìn)行投資。

       肆 我國研發(fā)投入有提升空間

     對(duì)比美股，A股的長(zhǎng)牛也離不開科技創(chuàng)新。2020年，我國在研發(fā)的投資為2.44萬億人民幣，占GDP比例在2.4%。2019年，發(fā)達(dá)國家中研發(fā)占GDP比例最高的為韓國，為4.6%，其次為德國和日本，占比為3.2%，美國的占比為3.1%。但我國在基礎(chǔ)研究方面的投入占比較低。2020年，我國在基礎(chǔ)研發(fā)的投入為1504億人民幣，占總體研發(fā)投入的比例為6.2%，而美國這個(gè)比例約為15%。因此，我國無論在總體研發(fā)和基礎(chǔ)研究的投入上都有較大提升空間。而中小公司也會(huì)在科技創(chuàng)新中發(fā)揮重要作用，專精特新小巨人是經(jīng)濟(jì)長(zhǎng)青的基礎(chǔ)和股市長(zhǎng)牛的一個(gè)重要支柱。

       伍 市場(chǎng)綜述

       A股上漲，美股大漲。美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)九月議息會(huì)議結(jié)束，宣布縮減債券購買計(jì)劃將很快就會(huì)來到。市場(chǎng)預(yù)期聯(lián)儲(chǔ)11月份縮減債券購買計(jì)劃，12月份實(shí)施。

I. The foundation of a long bull market

The long bull markets of the US stocks were supported by technology innovation. In the Cambridge Economic History of the United States (Volume III), authors analyzed the innovation of the US after World War II. Vannevar Bush, who is one of the most famous scientists and engineers in the US during WWII and brought up Mahhattan Plan, pointed out in his “Science: The endless frontier” that basic study is the source of economic growth and suggested to set up an independent agency to shoulder the investment in both military and civil basic study. He also suggested that basic study in military should be applied to civil use. 

II. The federal government invested big in basic study

After WWII, the federal government invested huge in basic study. From 1945 to 1969 the most avanced nations in the world at that time including France, Germany, the UK and Japan invested a total of US$ 11.3 trillion. As a comparison the US invested US$ 25.6 trillion. In 1996 the federal government contributed 58% of the total investment in basic study. 

III. Universities played a key role in basic study

Universities rose as a key role in basic study. In 1996 universities took up 61% of all of the basic study activities. Small companies contributed a lot to innovation, especially in medicine, electronic and computer sector. The reason is that those researchers in the universities brought their study results to commercial use by setting up small companies. Venture capital helped these start-ups a lot. 

IV. China's R&D investment has room to increase 

China’s research and development was 2.4% of GDP in 2020. Compared with 4.6% of South Korea, 3.2% of Germany and Japan and 3.2% of the US in 2019 our R&D has room to further increase. Moreover, our investment in basic study was only 6% of total R&D in 2020, compared with 15% of the US. We expect that the specialized, fined, peculiar and innovative little giants in China would also contribute to innovation and economic growth, just as their counter parties in the US. A long bull market with science as the solid foundation in A share would not be too far away. 

V. Market summary  

A share rose while the US stocks rallied.The September FOMC concluded and the Fed announced that tapering would come soon. Market expects the Fed to announce it in November and begin to execute it in December. 

聲明：本市場(chǎng)點(diǎn)評(píng)由北京楓瑞資產(chǎn)管理有限公司（以下簡(jiǎn)稱“楓瑞資產(chǎn)”）“楓瑞視點(diǎn)”微信公眾號(hào)提供和擁有版權(quán)，授權(quán)上海海獅資產(chǎn)管理有限公司轉(zhuǎn)載。在任何情況下文中信息或所表述的意見不構(gòu)成對(duì)任何人的投資建議，楓瑞資產(chǎn)不對(duì)任何人因使用本文中的內(nèi)容所引發(fā)的損失負(fù)任何責(zé)任。未經(jīng)楓瑞資產(chǎn)書面授權(quán)，本文中的內(nèi)容均不得以任何侵犯楓瑞資產(chǎn)版權(quán)的方式使用和轉(zhuǎn)載。市場(chǎng)有風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，投資需謹(jǐn)慎。

       壹港股大幅跑輸全球主要指數(shù)

      恒生指數(shù)繼7月份下跌9.94%，創(chuàng)下2018年10月以來最大月度跌幅，8月只是稍微喘了口氣，9月截止21日又下跌了6.64%。恒生指數(shù)年初至今下跌11%。全球16個(gè)主要國家和地區(qū)指數(shù)年初至今只有三個(gè)是下跌的，分別為深成指、巴西指數(shù)和恒生指數(shù)。深成指和巴西指數(shù)分別下跌0.4%和8%。漲幅最高的俄羅斯和印度指數(shù)上漲22-23%。因此，恒生指數(shù)遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)跑輸全球主要指數(shù)。

       貳 多個(gè)行業(yè)指數(shù)估值處在20年最低水平

      恒生綜合行業(yè)指數(shù)中很多估值都處在20年來的較低甚至最低水平。在恒生11個(gè)主要行業(yè)中，靜態(tài)市盈率估值處在50%以上分位的只有醫(yī)療和非必需消費(fèi)行業(yè)，分別處在歷史上91%和62%的分位。而綜合、原材料和工業(yè)處在歷史上44%、39%和19%的分位。除去以上5個(gè)行業(yè)，其余6個(gè)行業(yè)均處在10%以下分位。具體來說，資訊科技業(yè)、能源、公用事業(yè)、金融、電訊、地產(chǎn)分別處在歷史上8%、2%、1%、0.2%、0.2%和0.2%的分位。對(duì)于這些傳統(tǒng)行業(yè)，這個(gè)歷史可以追溯到2001年。

       叁 離岸市場(chǎng)

      港股估值如此之低一方面與其是離岸市場(chǎng)有很大關(guān)系，歐美機(jī)構(gòu)投資者主導(dǎo)這個(gè)市場(chǎng)。一有風(fēng)吹草動(dòng)，這些投資人就會(huì)甩賣離場(chǎng)，先觀望再做決策。

       肆 做空機(jī)制

      另一方面，也與沽空有很大關(guān)系。港股常年的沽空比例保持在10%左右。但當(dāng)市場(chǎng)面臨較大不確定時(shí)，沽空比率會(huì)迅速攀升。周一，港股市場(chǎng)沽空比例（沽空金額/可沽空股份成交額）為22.7%。因有香港地產(chǎn)商和內(nèi)地地產(chǎn)商的負(fù)面消息，資金做空港股。周二，該比率下降到18.7%，當(dāng)前沽空金額168.9億港幣，而可沽空股份成交金額為998.5億。可沽空股份成交金額一般小于市場(chǎng)總體成交量，因?yàn)橛行┕善辈荒鼙蛔隹?。有國際知名投資人近期因中國出臺(tái)的一些政策和發(fā)生的一些事件而明確表示做空中國股票，A股沒有做空機(jī)制，所以，大量的空單都跑到了港股。

       伍 A股中秋假期之后怎么走？

      港股周一大跌，而周二上漲；美股周一大跌，周二小跌。市場(chǎng)關(guān)注美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)議息會(huì)議的結(jié)果和A股中秋假期后的表現(xiàn)。拭目以待。

I. HK market performed poorly 

Hang Seng Index fell 9.94% in July, the biggest monthly fall from Oct. 2018. It fell another 6.4% in September and fell 11% year-to-date by September 21st. Among the 16 global major stock indexes, it’s the worst-performing index. There are three indexes out of 16 that fell year-to-date, which are Shenzhen Composite Index and Brazil IBOVESPA Index along with Hang Seng Index. Shenzhen Composite Index and Brazil IBOVESPA Index fell 0.4% and 8.3% respectively year-to-date. As a comparison the best-performing index year-to-date are Russia and India stock index, which rose 23% and 22% respectively so far this year. 

II. Sectors' valuation are at 20-year lows

Among Hang Seng 11 composite sector indexes, six have a price-to-earnings valuation at 10% percentile historically. They are technology, energy, utilities, telecom, financial,and property, whose percentile are 8%, 2%, 1%, 0.2%, 0.2% and 0.2%. Some traditional sectors such as financial and property are valued from 2001, i.e.,their valuation are at 20-year lows.

III. An off-shore market

That HK market performed poorly is due to that it is an off-shore market. The investors that have pricing power in this market are those institutional investors from the European and the US. They would sell the market when there are any uncertainties. From July some policies that targeted equality and common wealth have caused panic among those investors. 

IV. Short mechanism is another reason

And short mechanism in HK market further exacerbates the situation. Some reknown international investors have announced that they are shorting Chinese stocks.A-share does not have short arrangements. So they put all of their shorting orders in HK market. The short ratio, which is the total shortable stocks’ trading value divided by short position, has been maintained at around 10% in HK market for years. Yet when risks loom, the ratio can go as high as more than 20%. On Monday this ratio shot up to 22.7% while on Tuesday it fell to 18.7%.

V. A-share is the focus after the Mid-Autumn festival

HK market recovered partially on Tuesday following big sell-off on Monday while the US stocks failed to rebound on Tuesday. Investors are watching how A-share will perform after the Mid-Autumn festival as well as the FOMC results, which would come out earlier Thursday morning in Asia time. 

聲明：本市場(chǎng)點(diǎn)評(píng)由北京楓瑞資產(chǎn)管理有限公司（以下簡(jiǎn)稱“楓瑞資產(chǎn)”）“楓瑞視點(diǎn)”微信公眾號(hào)提供和擁有版權(quán)，授權(quán)上海海獅資產(chǎn)管理有限公司轉(zhuǎn)載。在任何情況下文中信息或所表述的意見不構(gòu)成對(duì)任何人的投資建議，楓瑞資產(chǎn)不對(duì)任何人因使用本文中的內(nèi)容所引發(fā)的損失負(fù)任何責(zé)任。未經(jīng)楓瑞資產(chǎn)書面授權(quán)，本文中的內(nèi)容均不得以任何侵犯楓瑞資產(chǎn)版權(quán)的方式使用和轉(zhuǎn)載。市場(chǎng)有風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，投資需謹(jǐn)慎。

       壹 港股大跌與香港地產(chǎn)商

      港股周一大跌，因受到香港地產(chǎn)和內(nèi)地金融地產(chǎn)行業(yè)的拖累?！堵吠浮吩缜耙鋈恢饕禺a(chǎn)開發(fā)商和一位知情本鋼特區(qū)政府顧問，本港開發(fā)商被告知，要運(yùn)用資源及影響力維護(hù)國家利益，更要回饋社會(huì)，協(xié)助解決住房短缺問題。

       貳 住宅供應(yīng)增加是大趨勢(shì)

      香港大地產(chǎn)商都囤積了大量土地。截止2019年底，香港五大地產(chǎn)商的土地儲(chǔ)備總計(jì)為660萬平米，占香港私人住宅用地面積的38.8%。香港住宅供應(yīng)增加將是未來的大趨勢(shì)。摩根·斯坦利今年4月曾發(fā)表報(bào)告稱供應(yīng)是壓抑樓價(jià)上升及令住屋可負(fù)擔(dān)的最有力工具，三個(gè)潛在解決供應(yīng)的方案為農(nóng)田轉(zhuǎn)換、填海和增加地積比。其中農(nóng)田轉(zhuǎn)換近期已有所加快，如新地收購了古洞新發(fā)展區(qū)首塊公開招標(biāo)農(nóng)地(歷時(shí)15年規(guī)劃)。

       叁 香港樓市或下跌

      摩根·斯坦利預(yù)估對(duì)地產(chǎn)商的最差情景為政府公布積極的供應(yīng)目標(biāo)，如由目前每年供應(yīng)3.5萬個(gè)增至超過10萬個(gè)，則香港樓價(jià)至明年底估計(jì)或會(huì)下跌20%。其基本情景假設(shè)為今年樓價(jià)會(huì)上升9%，明年則升5%。如果樓市下跌，則地產(chǎn)商的利潤也會(huì)承壓。香港本地開發(fā)商周一股價(jià)跌幅都在10%左右。

       肆 外資怎么看某內(nèi)地房地產(chǎn)公司

      瑞銀估計(jì)該房地產(chǎn)公司債務(wù)規(guī)模在3130億美金，其中190億美金為境外債券。貝萊德、瑞銀和匯豐是該房地產(chǎn)公司最大的境外債券持有者。周一匯豐的信貸違約掉期上升了16%。市場(chǎng)擔(dān)憂該公司債務(wù)問題會(huì)傳染到全球市場(chǎng)，甚至認(rèn)為將會(huì)影響美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)的貨幣政策。也有分析師認(rèn)為該公司債務(wù)只是中國的問題，政府會(huì)采用債轉(zhuǎn)股等方式解決。彭博社報(bào)道，部分銀行已經(jīng)為該公司的倒閉做好了準(zhǔn)備，通過計(jì)提壞賬準(zhǔn)備等。凱投宏觀分析師認(rèn)為從中國政府處理包商銀行和2015年股災(zāi)和貨幣貶值事件中可以看出，中國政府會(huì)允許短暫的金融混亂，但最終都會(huì)出手平息大規(guī)模的債務(wù)拖欠。

       伍 市場(chǎng)綜述

      周一歐美市場(chǎng)也大幅下跌，也側(cè)面反應(yīng)了投資者對(duì)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)傳染的擔(dān)憂。美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)的議息會(huì)議結(jié)果將會(huì)在周三出爐，市場(chǎng)在不安中等待其是否會(huì)開啟縮減債券購買計(jì)劃的消息。截止上周五，美股已連跌三周，有分析師認(rèn)為當(dāng)前為買入良機(jī)。

I. HK market crashed

HK market crashed on Monday. One reason is that HK local property developers were told to contribute to the welfare of society and could not maintain their monopolistic positions. This means that they would not have the high margin as previously. All of the HK property developers' stocks fell at around -10%. 

II. Housing supply is to increase 

Both analysts from JP Morgan and Morgan Stanley believed that the best way to contain the high housing prices were to increase supply. The property developers have a big land reserve. By the end of 2019 the five largest property developers have a land reserve at 660 square meters,which is 38.8% of the total land supply for private housing market. The increase of housing supply is certain in the future.

III. Housing prices to fall

Morgan Stanley estimated that if government can increase property supply from current 35,000 to 100,000 the housing prices would drop 20%. But the base case scenario they assume is that housing prices would increase 9% this year and then 5% in2022. 

IV. International investors view a Chinese property company differently

UBS estimated that the property developer had US$313 billion debt with US$19 billion off-shore bond. Blackrock,UBS and HSBC are the largest off-shore bond holders of the company. HSBC’s Credit Default Swap, a derivative that measures risk of default, rose 16% on Monday. Some analysts worried that the debt issue would spread to the US and even make the Fed delay tapering. Others believed that this would be strictly a China issue.

V. Still no consensus so far 

Capital Economics thought that Chinese government would allow temporary crisis in financial conditions but would intervene in case of large-scale default.They judged this from both Baoshang Bank and the drop of equities and RMB currency in 2015. There is no consensus on this issue. Market is waiting for news on restructuring in the coming weeks. The European and the US market also crashed. Investors wait for the results of the FOMC, which will conclude on Wednesday

聲明：本市場(chǎng)點(diǎn)評(píng)由北京楓瑞資產(chǎn)管理有限公司（以下簡(jiǎn)稱“楓瑞資產(chǎn)”）“楓瑞視點(diǎn)”微信公眾號(hào)提供和擁有版權(quán)，授權(quán)上海海獅資產(chǎn)管理有限公司轉(zhuǎn)載。在任何情況下文中信息或所表述的意見不構(gòu)成對(duì)任何人的投資建議，楓瑞資產(chǎn)不對(duì)任何人因使用本文中的內(nèi)容所引發(fā)的損失負(fù)任何責(zé)任。未經(jīng)楓瑞資產(chǎn)書面授權(quán)，本文中的內(nèi)容均不得以任何侵犯楓瑞資產(chǎn)版權(quán)的方式使用和轉(zhuǎn)載。市場(chǎng)有風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，投資需謹(jǐn)慎。

       壹 富可敵國的對(duì)沖基金

      塞巴斯蒂安·馬拉比的《富可敵國》一書刻畫了近代金融史上著名的對(duì)沖基金。這些對(duì)沖基金憑借管理人的能力做到了富可敵國。所有的對(duì)沖基金都曾經(jīng)遭遇過重大挫敗，而挫敗的原因各不相同。

       貳 長(zhǎng)期資本管理公司、老虎基金和量子基金

       像長(zhǎng)期資本管理公司，它的失敗不是由于衡量風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的方法過于簡(jiǎn)單，而是由于它想要對(duì)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)進(jìn)行準(zhǔn)確測(cè)量，而這是不可能實(shí)現(xiàn)的。有一些對(duì)沖基金規(guī)模太大，市場(chǎng)崩潰時(shí)沒有辦法跑掉。比如2000年互聯(lián)網(wǎng)泡沫破滅時(shí)的量子基金和老虎基金。這兩只基金在20世紀(jì)90年代末是美國最大的兩只對(duì)沖基金，盡管他們當(dāng)時(shí)的規(guī)模只有200億美金。老虎基金奉行價(jià)值投資理念，認(rèn)為科網(wǎng)股的泡沫遲早會(huì)破裂，因此重倉了美國航空公司。可隨著美國航空公司的利潤下降，股價(jià)在1999年初的三周內(nèi)下跌了29%。由于老虎基金重倉該股票，很難拋售出來。老虎基金的風(fēng)格就是重倉持有最多十只股票，在2000年互聯(lián)網(wǎng)泡沫危機(jī)發(fā)生時(shí)，人人都知道他們持有的是什么股票。競(jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)手選擇在他們之前拋售這些股票?；ヂ?lián)網(wǎng)泡沫直到2000年3月份才開始破滅，再次印證了凱恩斯所說的“市場(chǎng)保持非理性的時(shí)間總是比人們預(yù)期的長(zhǎng)”。堅(jiān)持價(jià)值投資的老虎基金被迫關(guān)閉。與老虎基金相反，量子基金是由于重倉科網(wǎng)股而在泡沫破滅后遭遇重大損失，不得不關(guān)閉。

        叁 風(fēng)險(xiǎn)和收益是對(duì)等的

        還有一些對(duì)沖基金購買了流動(dòng)性不足的資產(chǎn)，在一個(gè)流動(dòng)性不充分的市場(chǎng)中，會(huì)有大量的便宜貨，但因?yàn)殄e(cuò)誤所付出的代價(jià)也常常是巨大的?？v觀歷史上成功的對(duì)沖基金，無論成功或者失敗都是因?yàn)橹貍}某一股票或投資品種造成的。所以，投資里風(fēng)險(xiǎn)和收益總是對(duì)等的。想要收獲多大收益，就要付出多大風(fēng)險(xiǎn)?？傊瑳]有免費(fèi)的午餐。

        肆  市場(chǎng)綜述

        A股和港股再次下跌。港股本周再次遭遇股災(zāi)式下跌，指數(shù)全面跌破一倍凈資產(chǎn)。房地產(chǎn)、互聯(lián)網(wǎng)、博彩等板塊遭到全面拋售。這應(yīng)該是恒生指數(shù)歷史上第四次跌破一倍凈資產(chǎn)。歷史上看，每次恒指破凈后都會(huì)有表現(xiàn)較好的時(shí)期。A股因新能源板塊下跌。大幅美股探底回升。雖然8月份的零售數(shù)據(jù)環(huán)比上漲超市場(chǎng)預(yù)期，但部分原因是因?yàn)檎{(diào)低了7月份的基數(shù)所致。投資人對(duì)9月份的市場(chǎng)表現(xiàn)仍然保持謹(jǐn)慎態(tài)度。

I. More money than God

In “More money than God” Sebatian Mallaby described how those famous hedge funds rose and fell. The funds that lost a big sum of money and were forced to be closed made the same type of mistakes.

II. Three hedge funds that went bust

Long-term capital management tried to price risks which turned out to be impossible. Some hedge funds were too big to escape from the market. Tiger Fund and Quantum Fund were among them. Tiger Fund was a value investor and held a big chunk of America Airline stock. When the airline’s profit began to turn negative the stock price fell 29% in three weeks. Tiger Fund could not sell it out due to its big exposure. Quantum Fund was a trend follower and exposed to internet stocks heavily before the internet bubble went bust. It could not escape from the bubble. Both funds were closed in 2000. 

III. Risk and return are associated closely

Other funds invest in assets that were not liquid. The pricing of these illiquid assets might imply big mistakes and when things changed the prices could fall sharply. From the ups and downs of these famous hedge funds we can see that risk and return are positively related in investment. The higher return one would like to pursue, the higher risk he or she needs to take. In a word there is no free lunch.

IV. Hang Seng Index fell to 1x PB

A-share and HK stocks fell. HK stock market suffered crash this week. Property, gaming and tech sectors all fell sharply.Hang Seng Index’s valuation fell to 1x price-to-book (PB) for the fourth timein history. Every time Hang Seng Index falls below 1x it would perform well for some time. A-share fell due to the rumors that raw material for new energy sector might be procured in centralized manner. This sounds unlikely given that China does not own much Li-mines. The new energy sector rose quite a lot thisyear and investors might take profit before the Mid-autumn Festival holidays. 

V. Investors in the US market are still cautious

The US stocks bottomed out. Retail sales in August rose 0.7% month-on-month versus down 0.8% expected. Yet the retail sales beat came after the intial estimate forJuly was revised down sharply from a month-over-month gain of 0.5% to a decline of 0.8%. Investors are still cautious about the market in September, which is historically performed poorly.

聲明：本市場(chǎng)點(diǎn)評(píng)由北京楓瑞資產(chǎn)管理有限公司（以下簡(jiǎn)稱“楓瑞資產(chǎn)”）“楓瑞視點(diǎn)”微信公眾號(hào)提供和擁有版權(quán)，授權(quán)上海海獅資產(chǎn)管理有限公司轉(zhuǎn)載。在任何情況下文中信息或所表述的意見不構(gòu)成對(duì)任何人的投資建議，楓瑞資產(chǎn)不對(duì)任何人因使用本文中的內(nèi)容所引發(fā)的損失負(fù)任何責(zé)任。未經(jīng)楓瑞資產(chǎn)書面授權(quán)，本文中的內(nèi)容均不得以任何侵犯楓瑞資產(chǎn)版權(quán)的方式使用和轉(zhuǎn)載。市場(chǎng)有風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，投資需謹(jǐn)慎。

      壹 庫存周期

       庫存周期的上行期通常對(duì)應(yīng)股市的上漲，而庫存周期的下行期通常對(duì)應(yīng)股市的下跌。庫存周期的下行期通常包括經(jīng)濟(jì)的滯漲期和通縮期。股市在滯漲期可能上漲也可能下跌，但是在通縮期一般而言都是下跌。

      貳 庫存周期中股市的表現(xiàn)

     根據(jù)一位著名分析師的統(tǒng)計(jì)，從1996年到2011年五次庫存周期的上行階段，分別是1996年4月到1997年1月，1999年5月到2000年8月，2002年1月到2004年2月，2005年8月到2008年1月和2009年1月到2011年5月，上證指數(shù)分別上漲73%、78%、2.7%、299%和51%。而在五次庫存周期的下行期，分別是1997年2月到1999年4月，2000年9月到2001年12月，2004年3月到2005年7月，2008年2月到2008年12月以及20011年6月到2012年8月，上證指數(shù)分別上漲16%、-18%、-35%、-58%和-25%。

       叁 特殊情況

       1997年2月到1999年4月的庫存周期下行期，股市延續(xù)了1996年的牛市，是牛市的筑頂階段，因此上漲。當(dāng)時(shí)的經(jīng)濟(jì)和政策環(huán)境是消費(fèi)者價(jià)格指數(shù)處在較低水平，貨幣政策相對(duì)寬松。而2002年1月到2004年2月的庫存周期上行期，上證指數(shù)僅僅上漲了2.7%，主要是受到國有股減持和股權(quán)分置改革的相關(guān)制度性約束。

       肆 最近一輪庫存周期

      我們判斷最近的一輪庫存周期上行期始于2020年2月，上行高點(diǎn)在2021年3月。在此階段，通脹保持在較低水平，特別是消費(fèi)者價(jià)格指數(shù)，沒有明顯過熱的表現(xiàn)，經(jīng)濟(jì)增速也保持在一個(gè)合理穩(wěn)健的水平。同期，股市上漲38%，幅度相對(duì)溫和。當(dāng)前股市處在庫存周期下行期的滯漲階段，終端需求較弱，而通脹高企，漲價(jià)是一個(gè)重要的主題。經(jīng)濟(jì)在滯漲之后將走向通縮，屆時(shí)股市可能要進(jìn)行較大幅度的調(diào)整，只有防御類股票才能獲得相對(duì)收益。在庫存周期的下行期，高估值股票面臨較大壓力。白馬股春節(jié)后的調(diào)整印證了這一點(diǎn)。

      伍 市場(chǎng)綜述

      A股和港股再次下跌。8月經(jīng)濟(jì)數(shù)據(jù)除了出口外，全面低于預(yù)期，其中既有疫情的影響，也有周期下行的壓力。港股博彩股大幅下跌，因《新博彩法》咨詢文本在賭牌數(shù)量、賭牌期限、博彩監(jiān)管的法定要求、持股比例、推動(dòng)非博彩業(yè)務(wù)發(fā)展等方面超出市場(chǎng)預(yù)期，強(qiáng)監(jiān)管的趨勢(shì)明顯。美股大漲，市場(chǎng)似乎在從連續(xù)的下跌中走出來。

I. An inventory cycle and stock market 

The upward period of an inventory cycle usually corresponds to the stock market rally while the downward period of an inventory cycle corresponds to the stock market tumble. 

II.Study five inventory cycles in history

Based on the analysis of a famous analyst in China there were five upward periods of inventory cycles from 1996 to 2012. Shanghai Composite Index rose 73% (from April 1996 to Jan. 1997), 78%(from May 1999 to August 2000)、2.7% (from Jan. 2002 to Feb. 2004)、299%(from August 2005 to Jan. 2008) and 51%( from Jan. 2009 to May 2011) respectively. There were also five downward periods of an inventory cycle during the same period. Shanghai Composite Index rose 16% (from Feb 1997 to April 1999)，-18%( from Sept. 2000 to Dec. 2001)，-35% (from March 2004 to July 2005)，-58% (from Feb 2008 to Dec 2008) and- 25% (from June 2011 to August 2012) respectively. 

III. Two special cases

From Jan. 2002 to Feb. 2004 China began to implement state share sale reformation and the stock market performed poorly during this period. That’s why Shanghai Composite Index only rose 2.7% during this upward period. From Feb. 1997 to April 1999 the stock market was at the end of a bull market. That’s why it rose despite the economy was in a downward period of an inventory cycle. 

IV. The most recent inventory cycle 

We judge that the most recent upward period of an inventory cycle began in March 2020 and ended in March 2021. During this period the inflation in consumer side was moderate and economic growth was steady.Shanghai Composite Index rose 38%. Currently we are in the downward period an inventory cycle. It includes two stages, i.e., stagflation and deflation. In stagflation a key theme is price increase. High-valued stocks usually do not perform well during the downward period of an inventory cycle

V. Market summary 

A-share and HK stocks fell. Macau gaming stocks fell sharply as the new laws in consulting point to more strict supervision for gaming sector. The US stocks rallied after falling for more than a week. Market waits for August retail sales to judge the temperature of the economy.

聲明：本市場(chǎng)點(diǎn)評(píng)由北京楓瑞資產(chǎn)管理有限公司（以下簡(jiǎn)稱“楓瑞資產(chǎn)”）“楓瑞視點(diǎn)”微信公眾號(hào)提供和擁有版權(quán)，授權(quán)上海海獅資產(chǎn)管理有限公司轉(zhuǎn)載。在任何情況下文中信息或所表述的意見不構(gòu)成對(duì)任何人的投資建議，楓瑞資產(chǎn)不對(duì)任何人因使用本文中的內(nèi)容所引發(fā)的損失負(fù)任何責(zé)任。未經(jīng)楓瑞資產(chǎn)書面授權(quán)，本文中的內(nèi)容均不得以任何侵犯楓瑞資產(chǎn)版權(quán)的方式使用和轉(zhuǎn)載。市場(chǎng)有風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，投資需謹(jǐn)慎。

       壹 美國8月通脹回落

        美國8月份的消費(fèi)者價(jià)格指數(shù)同比和環(huán)比漲幅均低于預(yù)期: 同比上漲5.3%，預(yù)期5.4%；環(huán)比上漲0.3%，預(yù)期0.4%。7月份消費(fèi)者價(jià)格指數(shù)環(huán)比上漲0.5%，8月的環(huán)比漲幅較7月份也是回落的。但消費(fèi)者價(jià)格指數(shù)的回落可能受到疫情的影響，因?yàn)轱w機(jī)票價(jià)和酒店住宿價(jià)格分別較7月份下跌9.1%和3.3%。這也意味著一旦疫情好轉(zhuǎn)，這些價(jià)格很可能再度上漲。

       貳 美國消費(fèi)領(lǐng)域通脹更重要

      上周五發(fā)布的美國生產(chǎn)者價(jià)格指數(shù)同比漲幅超市場(chǎng)預(yù)期。作為一個(gè)消費(fèi)占GDP比重高達(dá)80%的國家，市場(chǎng)對(duì)美國消費(fèi)者價(jià)格指數(shù)的關(guān)注程度遠(yuǎn)高于生產(chǎn)者價(jià)格指數(shù)，制造業(yè)在美國經(jīng)濟(jì)中占比僅為12%。

       叁 我國生產(chǎn)領(lǐng)域通脹影響更大

       作為一個(gè)制造大國，原材料上漲對(duì)我國經(jīng)濟(jì)產(chǎn)生重大影響。因此，生產(chǎn)者價(jià)格指數(shù)的漲幅為政府和市場(chǎng)所關(guān)注。上周公布的我國8月生產(chǎn)者價(jià)格指數(shù)的同比漲幅達(dá)到2008年8月以來最高水平，從環(huán)比看還有加速上升的態(tài)勢(shì)。我國消費(fèi)者價(jià)格指數(shù)的漲幅當(dāng)然也很重要。但一方面由于我國消費(fèi)者價(jià)格指數(shù)在相當(dāng)程度上是豬指數(shù)，而豬肉價(jià)格從今年年初以來持續(xù)下跌。因此，消費(fèi)者價(jià)格指數(shù)同比漲幅一直保持在較低水平。另外，由于貨幣政策的松緊程度一定程度上受到消費(fèi)者價(jià)格指數(shù)的制約。歷史上看，只要消費(fèi)者價(jià)格指數(shù)同比漲幅超過3%，貨幣政策就會(huì)傾向于收緊。

       肆 原材料價(jià)格可能長(zhǎng)期保持高位

       近期，有研究表明鋁的供應(yīng)在未來五年不可能有大幅度改善，電解鋁的價(jià)格有可能長(zhǎng)時(shí)間保持在較高水平。周二澳大利亞鋰精礦拍賣價(jià)格大幅超出市場(chǎng)預(yù)期，也再次點(diǎn)燃了新能源電池板塊的行情。種種跡象表明，幾乎所有上游原材料都受到供應(yīng)方面的制約，價(jià)格會(huì)較長(zhǎng)時(shí)間維持在較高水平。原材料價(jià)格上漲向下游傳導(dǎo)需6-9個(gè)月的時(shí)間。考慮到上游原材料價(jià)格從今年年初開始就處在較高水平，消費(fèi)者價(jià)格指數(shù)的上漲可能為期不遠(yuǎn)了。因此，通脹的回落也許僅是暫時(shí)的，上漲可能是長(zhǎng)期的。

       伍 市場(chǎng)綜述

      A股和港股均下跌。前期表現(xiàn)強(qiáng)勢(shì)的周期股領(lǐng)跌，醫(yī)藥消費(fèi)等白馬股上漲。澳門博彩股連續(xù)第二天下跌，因政府要加強(qiáng)對(duì)該行業(yè)的監(jiān)管。盡管通脹回落，美股仍收跌。標(biāo)普500指數(shù)連續(xù)第六個(gè)交易日收低于開盤價(jià)，這是2020年2月以來的首次。

I. August inflation in consumer-side rose less than expected in the US 

The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) in August came in lower than expected. CPI rose 5.3% year-on-year while 0.3% month-on-month versus 5.4% and 0.4% expected. In July CPI rose 0.5% month-on-month. Part of the fall was due to airfare and hotel prices, which fell 9.1% and 3.3% month-on-month respectively.In the US consumption takes up to 80% of GDP. Hence, inflation in consumer sectors has a big impact on the overall economy. Manufacturing is only 12% of the US GDP. Hence, inflation in producers’ side is not as important as in consumer side. 

II. Inflation in producer-side in China has a bigger impact

China is different from the US. Manufacturing takes more than one-third of GDP. Hence, inflation in producers’ side has a big impact on our economy. China’s Producers Price Index in August came in higher than expected at 9.5% year-on-year. It was the largest increase from August 2008. Yet due to supply constraints upstream raw material prices would be at high levels for years. China’s CPI is related with swine prices closely. Swine prices have been falling since the beginning of this year. As a result CPI has been maintained at a low level. CPI affects monetary policies. A rule of thumb is that once CPI rises higher than 3% year-on-year China’s monetary policy would strengthen. So now it is not the time to worry about monetary policy. 

III. The inflation is to be transmitted from producers to consumers

It is estimated that price increase would be transmitted from producer-sideto consumer-side in 6 to 9 months. Raw material prices rose to high levels at the beginning of this year. Hence, in 3Q we would see cost pressure in consumer products producers. So the fall of inflation might only be temporary while the rise of inflation would last for a long time.

IV. Market summary

A-share and HK stocks fell.Cyclical stocks tumbled.Macau gaming stocks fell for the second day in consecutive as government might impose more rules in this sector for its better development. The US stocks fell across the board. The SP 500 closed lower than its opening for the sixth trading day in a row, the first time from February 2020. The US 10-year treasury yield fell below 1.3% despite that the Fed might taper soon. 

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