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        壹 康波是什么？

        在上世紀(jì)二十年代，前蘇聯(lián)學(xué)者尼古拉·康德拉季耶夫提出，在資本主義經(jīng)濟生活中存在著45~60年的長期波動。這種長期波動被人們稱為康德拉季耶夫周期，也稱康波，它通常對應(yīng)著技術(shù)創(chuàng)新。一位已故著名經(jīng)濟學(xué)家曾經(jīng)說過“人生發(fā)財靠康波”的名言，使康波深入人心。

        貳 康波在中國宋代

        《白銀資本》的作者德國人貢德·弗蘭克研究發(fā)現(xiàn)其實在中國宋代就存在康波。從930年到1250年共320年間，中國一共經(jīng)歷了4個連續(xù)的康波，分別對應(yīng)著印刷術(shù)和造紙術(shù)，這都是中國人的創(chuàng)新。

        叁 中國是創(chuàng)新主導(dǎo)國

        雖然有學(xué)者認(rèn)為宋代之后技術(shù)創(chuàng)新轉(zhuǎn)移到了歐洲，但弗蘭克認(rèn)為事實并非如此。第5個到第12個康德拉季耶夫周期分別對應(yīng)著黑海貿(mào)易、威尼斯大帆船艦隊、胡椒、幾內(nèi)亞黃金、印度香料、波羅的海-大西洋貿(mào)易。第13 和14個周期分別對應(yīng)著種植園和美洲-亞洲貿(mào)易。在5-14個康德拉季耶夫周期中，弗蘭克認(rèn)為第6-14個周期除了幾內(nèi)亞黃金和波羅的海-大西洋貿(mào)易，其余的康波都與中國有關(guān)。歐洲的創(chuàng)新是歐洲人爭取從亞洲的經(jīng)濟活動中心謀取好處的漫長努力的反應(yīng)，是中國經(jīng)濟滲透發(fā)揮的作用?？挡ㄖ杏兄鲗?dǎo)國和創(chuàng)新的提法。無疑，中國在宋代始的幾個世紀(jì)都應(yīng)該是世界創(chuàng)新的主導(dǎo)國。第6個周期開始于1250年，第14個周期開始于1688年，結(jié)束于1740年。因此，中國至少在17世紀(jì)之前都是世界的經(jīng)濟和貿(mào)易中心。

        肆 衰落是暫時的

       由于中國在瓷器、絲綢和茶葉市場上的競爭優(yōu)勢，直到19世紀(jì)初中國還保持貿(mào)易順差。瓷器的英文CHINA也就是中國的意思，也在一定程度上印證了中國當(dāng)時的競爭優(yōu)勢。弗蘭克認(rèn)為由于中國的生產(chǎn)效率、人口增長速度和制度優(yōu)勢使得其在歷史上長久保持世界中心的地位。中國在19世紀(jì)和20世紀(jì)的衰落只是歷史長河中的短暫一瞬，終將重新引領(lǐng)世界。

      伍 市場綜述

      A股上漲，港股下跌。港股科技股下挫，因政府要求美團等平臺企業(yè)保障勞動者權(quán)益。周期股領(lǐng)漲兩市。美股道指和標(biāo)普500上漲，結(jié)束了連續(xù)5個交易日的下跌。美國新冠7天平均新增病例環(huán)比前一周下跌。但上周五發(fā)布的8月份生產(chǎn)價格指數(shù)同比上漲8.3%，為2010年10月以來的最高漲幅。周二晚將會發(fā)布8月份消費者價格指數(shù)數(shù)據(jù)。

I. What is Kondratiev cycle? 

Kondratiev cycle was brought up by Russia famous economist Nikolai Kondratiev. It refers to a long economic cycle that can last up to 40-60 years and is usually caused by technology innovation. A reknown economist in China ever said that one can only make a fortune by relying on Kondratiev cycle. 

II.Kondratiev cycle in China

Gunder Frank, a Germany economist, wrote in his popular book “Reorient-Global Economy in the Asian Age” that Kondratiev cycles had existed in China since the Song Dynasty. From 930 to 1250 there were four Kondratiev cycles in China,which corresponded to printing and paper-making technology innovation. The following 5th to 12th Kondratiev cycle corresponded to trade in Black Sea, Venetian galleon, pepper, Guinea gold, perfume in India, and trade between Baltic Sea and the Atlantic. The 13th and 14th Kondratiev cycle was caused by plantation and trade between the America and Asia. 

III. China had long been the centre of innovation

Frank considered that except Guinea gold and trade between the Baltic Sea and the Atlantic, the other Kondratiev cycles were related with China. So he refuted the idea that innovation centre shifted to Europe after the Song Dynasty and believed that China has remained as the world economic center until the 18thcentury. China has enjoyed competitive advantage in production efficiency,population growth and advanced rules and arrangements. As a matter of fact China had maintained its competitive advantage in china, silk and tea and enjoyed trade surplus until early 1900s. Frank believed that China has long been the center of the world economy and innovation and considered that the setbacks in the 19th and 20th century as a short-term phenomenon. He expects China to come back soon. So do we.

IV. Market summary

A-share rose while HK stocks fell.Internet platform companies such as Meituan fell sharply on Monday as government required these companies to provide social security welfare to their employees. DOW and SP 500 rose, snapping a five-day losing streak. The average 7-day COVID-19 new cases last week fell week-on-week.

聲明：本市場點評由北京楓瑞資產(chǎn)管理有限公司（以下簡稱“楓瑞資產(chǎn)”）“楓瑞視點”微信公眾號提供和擁有版權(quán)，授權(quán)上海海獅資產(chǎn)管理有限公司轉(zhuǎn)載。在任何情況下文中信息或所表述的意見不構(gòu)成對任何人的投資建議，楓瑞資產(chǎn)不對任何人因使用本文中的內(nèi)容所引發(fā)的損失負(fù)任何責(zé)任。未經(jīng)楓瑞資產(chǎn)書面授權(quán)，本文中的內(nèi)容均不得以任何侵犯楓瑞資產(chǎn)版權(quán)的方式使用和轉(zhuǎn)載。市場有風(fēng)險，投資需謹(jǐn)慎。

        壹 美元將走強

      美聯(lián)儲很有可能在9月21、22日的議息會議后宣布縮減債券購買規(guī)模的決定。市場預(yù)期我國央行將在10月份降準(zhǔn)。一緊一松，中美兩國的貨幣政策將走向相反的兩個方向。從匯率的角度看，如果美國收緊流動性，對美元是有上行推動力的。但美元上行的幅度會有多大呢？或者反之人民幣貶值的幅度會在多少？我們在這次也許不一樣中分析過：由于通脹的高企，美國的實際利率可能較長時間保持在較低水平，這也意味著美元的上漲將不會有較強的支撐。

        貳 幅度也許有限

       當(dāng)然匯率不僅與貨幣流動性相對強弱有關(guān)，也受到兩國經(jīng)濟增長的相對強弱影響。從經(jīng)濟增長的角度看，美國經(jīng)濟很有可能在3季度達(dá)到此輪增長的頂點，此后將會下行。而中國經(jīng)濟在今年3月份達(dá)到增長的頂點，此后就開始下行。從庫存周期的角度看，美國經(jīng)濟的下行周期通常在12個月。因此，明年3季度大概率是美國經(jīng)濟的最低點。而從歷史看，中國經(jīng)濟下行周期通常持續(xù)一到兩年，因此經(jīng)濟增速的最低點最快有可能在明年2季度觸及，最晚有可能在2023年達(dá)到（具體請參見2021年A股投資展望，其中對中美兩國的庫存周期有比較詳細(xì)的論述）。所以，未來中美兩國經(jīng)濟都可能處在下行階段中。綜合考慮，美元上行的幅度可能是有限的，意味著人民幣貶值的空間也不會很大。

        叁 中國支持性政策不斷出臺

        近期國家出臺各種政策以支持經(jīng)濟發(fā)展。社融增速可能在年底之前同比增速會持續(xù)下行，但廣義貨幣同比增速觸底應(yīng)該是大概率事件。雖然未來隨著經(jīng)濟增速再下臺階，廣義貨幣有可能會再次突破8%的最低同比增速水平，但這應(yīng)該是一個平緩的過程，近期不會看到。政策支持下，經(jīng)濟應(yīng)不會太差，股市還有很多機會。

       肆 美股和A股今年表現(xiàn)差異較大

       進入9月份，各家投行紛紛下調(diào)標(biāo)普500年底前的目標(biāo)價，認(rèn)為在新冠疫情的沖擊下，美國經(jīng)濟將會走弱，美股年底前或面臨10%左右的調(diào)整。但年初以來我國資本市場與美股的表現(xiàn)差異巨大，美股如調(diào)整對A股和港股市場的沖擊應(yīng)是有限的。

       伍 上周市場綜述

     上周A股和港股在全球漲幅居前。上證指數(shù)和深成指分別上漲4.2%和3.4%，在全球16個主要國家和地區(qū)指數(shù)漲幅居第2和第3位。美股道指連續(xù)下跌5天。

I.The US dollar would appreciate 

Market now expects that the Federal Reserve would announce taper at the FOMC on Sept 22nd this year and begin to implement it before the end of this year. In the mean time many analysts predicted that the People's Bank of China would cut bank reserve rate in October to boost the slowing economy. So China and the US would diverge in monetary policy with the US to strengthen it while China to loosen it. In this case the US dollar would appreciate and the RMB would depreciate. In “This time could be different(這次也許不一樣)” we have pointed out that due to the high inflation the real interest rate in the US might be maintained at low levels. Hence, the US dollar would not appreciate as much as previous. 

II.But not that much

But how much the US dollar appreciates and the RMB depreciates also depends on the economy growth rate of the US and China. China’s economy reached its peak level in March this year and the US economy is expected to reach the top in 3Q2021. After that both China and the US economy would come down for some time. In the US the economy slow-down in an inventory cycle usually takes 12 months, i.e., the US economy would likely reach its lowest point of growth rate in 3Q2022. And China’s economy would take one or two years to get to the bottom, which is 1H2022 or early 2023. In short economy growth rate does not support a very strong US dollar as well as a very weak RMB. 

III. A-share would not go down with the US stocks

Moreover, China has implemented many policies to stimulate economy. The broad monetary supply(M2)  growth rate has been at a very low level and would not go further lower in the near term. Fiscal policies are becoming more accomodative. Recently many houses in the US downgraded SP 500 price target at the end of this year due to Delta variant and the likely taper.Yet year-to-date the US and China stock markets performed quite differently. We do not expect that the US market correction would have a negative impact on both A-share and HK stock markets.

IV. A-share and HK stocks led the global markets last week

Both A-share and HK stocks rose last week. Among the 16 major indexes globally Shanghai Composite Index and Shenzhen Composite Index were ranked at the second the third in terms of rise range. 

聲明：本市場點評由北京楓瑞資產(chǎn)管理有限公司（以下簡稱“楓瑞資產(chǎn)”）“楓瑞視點”微信公眾號提供和擁有版權(quán)，授權(quán)上海海獅資產(chǎn)管理有限公司轉(zhuǎn)載。在任何情況下文中信息或所表述的意見不構(gòu)成對任何人的投資建議，楓瑞資產(chǎn)不對任何人因使用本文中的內(nèi)容所引發(fā)的損失負(fù)任何責(zé)任。未經(jīng)楓瑞資產(chǎn)書面授權(quán)，本文中的內(nèi)容均不得以任何侵犯楓瑞資產(chǎn)版權(quán)的方式使用和轉(zhuǎn)載。市場有風(fēng)險，投資需謹(jǐn)慎。

       壹 上一輪超級周期

      大宗商品的超級周期是指大宗商品價格長期且大范圍的持續(xù)上漲。從上世紀(jì)初至今一共有4輪大宗商品的超級周期。最近這輪大宗商品的超級周期起始于1999年，在2008年達(dá)到最高點。之后開始了長達(dá)12年的下跌，直到2020年4月達(dá)到此輪周期的最低點。以CRB大宗商品指數(shù)衡量，CRB指數(shù)在此輪周期的上行階段累計上漲了3倍多一點，而在下行階段下跌了67%。各種商品在超級周期的上漲階段漲幅不一。原油上漲了14倍，銅上漲了6.6倍，黃金也上漲了6.6倍。但原油是2008年達(dá)到歷史高點的，而銅和黃金則是在2011年，2011年是大宗商品價格的次高點。

     貳 中國因素推動

    上一輪大宗商品的上漲主要是由于中國加入WTO之后，受益于全球化紅利，制造業(yè)投資和需求強勁增長。同時，國內(nèi)房地產(chǎn)和基建需求旺盛。這些因素一起推動了一輪大宗商品的上漲。

     叁 對此輪周期的爭議

     去年4月大宗商品價格創(chuàng)出10年左右新低之后開啟強勢上漲。一些分析師認(rèn)為大宗商品超級周期卷土重來。但也有一些分析師持與之不同的觀點，認(rèn)為大宗商品價格的上漲只是貨幣推升和結(jié)構(gòu)性短缺情況下的短期現(xiàn)象。由于新能源轉(zhuǎn)型還需要持續(xù)數(shù)年，其對大宗商品所產(chǎn)生的額外需求不足以推動一輪超級周期。

     肆 也許是不一樣的周期

     那么這次有沒有超級周期呢？目前為止，還看不到全球?qū)Υ笞谏唐沸枨蟮膹妱旁鲩L。但隨著各國經(jīng)濟復(fù)蘇，對大宗商品的需求也在溫和復(fù)蘇。同時，大宗商品價格在經(jīng)過數(shù)年的下跌之后，產(chǎn)能已經(jīng)去化到較低的水平。而疫情對大宗商品的供給又產(chǎn)生了抑制作用。因此，我們判斷此輪大宗商品的價格取決于邊際供給和需求的變化。這可能是此輪大宗商品超級周期（如有）區(qū)別于以前超級周期的地方。

      伍 市場綜述

      A股上漲，港股下跌。港股互聯(lián)網(wǎng)企業(yè)因被約談而大幅下跌，帶動整體市場大幅調(diào)整。港股當(dāng)前估值處在歷史較低水平，我們認(rèn)為投資價值已經(jīng)顯現(xiàn)。具體請參見現(xiàn)在可以開始和港股做時間的朋友。中國8月消費者價格指數(shù)同比低于預(yù)期，因生豬價格繼續(xù)回落。而生產(chǎn)者價格指數(shù)同比上漲超預(yù)期。市場對滯漲擔(dān)憂加劇，黃金股票在數(shù)據(jù)公布后上漲，大宗商品股票全天領(lǐng)漲A股和港股。因投資人擔(dān)憂經(jīng)濟增長前景，美國股票連續(xù)第四天下跌。但上周初次申請失業(yè)救濟人數(shù)回到2020年3月時的水平，顯示就業(yè)恢復(fù)良好。

I. The last super cycle 

The super cycle of commodities refers to that commodity prices rise for a long period and across the board. There have been four super cycles of commodities since the beginning of last century. The most recent super cycle started in 1999 and reached the peak levels of prices in 2008. CRB commodity index rose more than 300% over this period and then began a 12-year decline until April 2020, when it finally reached the lowest point of this cycle and fell 67% in total. All of the commodities rose during the rising period of the super cycle but at different range. Oil rose 1500% from 1999 to 2008 when it reached the highest price at US$147 per barrel. Copper and gold rose 600% respectively but reached the highest point in 2011, which saw the high of CRB Index only second to the peak in 2008.

II. China drove the last cycle

This recent super cycle was driven by China demand. In 2001 China joined WTO and began to take part in global trade and manufacturing. This promoted investment in manufacturing. Moreover, with the economy booming demand for infrastructure and property also rose fast. All of these helped a super cycle of commodity. 

III. Likely a different cycle 

Currently we do not see the strong demand for commodity as that in the last super cycle. However, with 10-year plus commodity prices decline, commodity production capacity has been cut off to relatively low levels. Moreover, pandemic disrupted commodity production from time to time. Yet with the economy recovery from the pandemic going on the demand for commodity is increasing at a moderate rate. So this time if there is a commodity super cycle, it would be determined by the marginal changes of supply and demand. This might be the difference of this super cycle from the previous ones. 

IV. Market summary

A share rose while HK stocks fell. HK stocks fellsharply as gaming and media companies were summoned by government. We have pointed out that HK stocks are valued at low levels from history. And it might be a good timing to bottom fish in the HK market. The US DOW fell for the fourth day in a row as investors worried about Delta variant. The European Central Bank announced that it would slow the pace of pandemic bond-buying program in 4Q2021. 

聲明：本市場點評由北京楓瑞資產(chǎn)管理有限公司（以下簡稱“楓瑞資產(chǎn)”）“楓瑞視點”微信公眾號提供和擁有版權(quán)，授權(quán)上海海獅資產(chǎn)管理有限公司轉(zhuǎn)載。在任何情況下文中信息或所表述的意見不構(gòu)成對任何人的投資建議，楓瑞資產(chǎn)不對任何人因使用本文中的內(nèi)容所引發(fā)的損失負(fù)任何責(zé)任。未經(jīng)楓瑞資產(chǎn)書面授權(quán)，本文中的內(nèi)容均不得以任何侵犯楓瑞資產(chǎn)版權(quán)的方式使用和轉(zhuǎn)載。市場有風(fēng)險，投資需謹(jǐn)慎。

       壹 創(chuàng)新行業(yè)引領(lǐng)市場

       近期市場上元宇宙概念股表現(xiàn)出色，投資人也紛紛學(xué)習(xí)了解元宇宙這個突如其來的概念。威廉·歐內(nèi)爾在《笑傲股市》一書中指出：強勢行業(yè)孕育超級牛股，順應(yīng)行業(yè)趨勢至關(guān)重要。對于一個創(chuàng)新主導(dǎo)的經(jīng)濟體，新興創(chuàng)新者通常會引領(lǐng)市場。這在美國股市上得到驗證。

       貳 創(chuàng)新隨時代而變化

      從美國股票歷史看，強勢行業(yè)跟隨創(chuàng)新的趨勢而變化。在上世紀(jì)50-60年代，航空航天曾經(jīng)多年獨領(lǐng)風(fēng)騷。上世紀(jì)80年代到2000年，計算機、食品醫(yī)藥等為強勢行業(yè)。牛市中的主導(dǎo)行業(yè)通常會產(chǎn)生外溢效應(yīng)。20世紀(jì)60年代末，航空產(chǎn)業(yè)由于噴氣式飛機的引進而進入復(fù)興時期，航空公司股票暴漲。

       叁 創(chuàng)新具有外溢效應(yīng)

       航空公司的增長在持續(xù)幾年后外溢到酒店業(yè)，游客對住宿需求的增加使酒店業(yè)股票強勢上漲。20世紀(jì)90年代，隨著互聯(lián)網(wǎng)的騰飛，消費者對網(wǎng)絡(luò)訪問速度和帶寬的需求增加。網(wǎng)絡(luò)產(chǎn)業(yè)的股票暴漲，而專供光纖產(chǎn)業(yè)的公司股票也隨之上漲。歐內(nèi)爾將上述情況稱為股市里的跟進效應(yīng)。還有一種被稱為親戚股票，這在制造業(yè)中很常見。比如20世紀(jì)60年代隨著航空需求的崛起，波音公司出售了大量噴氣式飛機。每一個噴氣式飛機都有一個莫納格萊姆公司制造的洗手間。該公司利潤上漲了2倍，股票最高上漲了10倍。

      肆 A股的創(chuàng)新行業(yè)

      A股市場也是創(chuàng)新行業(yè)引領(lǐng)市場。跟進效應(yīng)和親戚股票現(xiàn)象在A股里也比比皆是。比如A股中航空和酒店通常表現(xiàn)一致：航空好，則酒店也表現(xiàn)好。反之亦然。元宇宙概念股中也能看到跟進效應(yīng)：游戲產(chǎn)業(yè)股票表現(xiàn)好，光纖產(chǎn)業(yè)股票也表現(xiàn)好，因為VR、AR游戲?qū)捰休^高要求。隨著新能源和光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)的火爆，不僅鋰電池股票表現(xiàn)較好，制造新能源電池和光伏材料的原材料價格都強勢上漲。創(chuàng)新行業(yè)引領(lǐng)市場，經(jīng)常會給人以“蕭瑟秋風(fēng)今又是，換了人間”的感覺。但如果沒有業(yè)績支撐，炒作終將停止。

      伍 市場綜述

      A股和港股下跌?？苿?chuàng)50跌幅1.8%，創(chuàng)業(yè)板指跌近1個百分點，上證指數(shù)微跌。港股博彩股漲幅領(lǐng)先，因粵澳新通道青茂口岸周三開通。隨著粵港澳繼續(xù)開放通關(guān)，低估值的博彩股有望持續(xù)受益。美股道指連續(xù)第三天下跌，紐約聯(lián)儲主席發(fā)表講話認(rèn)為年底前開始縮減債券購買是合適的舉措。

I. Innovation sectors led the market rally 

Mettaverse-concept stocks have rallied recently in A-share. Investors participated in meetings and conferences to learn about the new concept. In his popular book “How to make money in stocks ” William O’neil pointed out that strong-performing sectors lead stock markets and to follow the market trend is key to make money. Those strong-performing sectors are usually innovation-driven.

II. Innovation sectors change from time to time 

At different times innovation drives different sectors. In the 1950 to 1960s, airlines led the market rally. From 1980 to 2000, computer sector was one of the best-performing sectors that drove the broad market. 

III.Spill-over effects

These strong sectors usually have spill-over effects. Take the example of airline sector in the last 1950-60s. Due to that jets were created airline sectors grew very fast. The travelling demands from consumers eventually pushed up demands for hospitality.  Hotel sector benefited and rallied along with the airline stocks. In the 1990s, with the booming of internet sector demands for internet speed and band grew very fast. The internet stocks rallied and those companies who provided optical fiber and cable rose as well. O’neil called the above phenomenon as follow-on effect. There is another effect which he called cousin stocks, which is especially true in manufacturing sector. While jets became popular in the 1960s, every jet had atoilet manufactured by Monagramm. The company saw its earnings grow 2 times andstock prices rose 10 times. 

IV. The same in A-share

In A-share both follow-on effect and cousin stocks exist. When mettaverse stocks rose, those fiber and cable producers' stocks also rallied. In new energy sector, the battery producer stock rallied. And its raw material providers’ stocks also rose quite a lot. It seems to investors that the market changes fast. But once these companies’ earnings growth slow down the stocks also lose momentum to go up.

V. Market summary

A share and HK stocks fell. STAR50 Index and Chinext Index fell 1.8% and 0.97% while Shanghai Composite Index fell slightly.The US DOW Index fell for the third day. Biege Book showed that economy moderated in July and August due to Delta variant. 

聲明：本市場點評由北京楓瑞資產(chǎn)管理有限公司（以下簡稱“楓瑞資產(chǎn)”）“楓瑞視點”微信公眾號提供和擁有版權(quán)，授權(quán)上海海獅資產(chǎn)管理有限公司轉(zhuǎn)載。在任何情況下文中信息或所表述的意見不構(gòu)成對任何人的投資建議，楓瑞資產(chǎn)不對任何人因使用本文中的內(nèi)容所引發(fā)的損失負(fù)任何責(zé)任。未經(jīng)楓瑞資產(chǎn)書面授權(quán)，本文中的內(nèi)容均不得以任何侵犯楓瑞資產(chǎn)版權(quán)的方式使用和轉(zhuǎn)載。市場有風(fēng)險，投資需謹(jǐn)慎。

        壹 8月份進出口數(shù)據(jù)超預(yù)期

        8月份出口數(shù)據(jù)超市場預(yù)期，出口以美元計同比上漲25.6%，超出是市場預(yù)期的17.1%，也高于7月份的19.3%。對各個國家和地區(qū)的出口都有增長，但最主要的是對歐盟的出口增速較高。進口同比上漲33.1%，也超市場預(yù)期。

        貳 經(jīng)濟也許不太差

       一方面海外疫情尤其是東南亞疫情導(dǎo)致部分訂單轉(zhuǎn)移到國內(nèi)，另一方面，因為運力受限，部分國內(nèi)和海外訂單提前。半導(dǎo)體等產(chǎn)品的出口增速也較快。8月份數(shù)據(jù)顯示出口仍是經(jīng)濟增長的動力。超預(yù)期的出口也許意味著我國經(jīng)濟可能并不太差。海外疫情連綿不斷造成供應(yīng)鏈被打破，我國當(dāng)前可能是全球唯一能夠保持正常生產(chǎn)的國家。如果出口持續(xù)超預(yù)期，我國經(jīng)濟在3、4季度下行的速率可能會很平緩。

         叁 全球通脹超預(yù)期

        歐元區(qū)通脹率已經(jīng)達(dá)到3%，為10年來的最高水平。德國消費者價格指數(shù)上漲3.9%，為1993年12月以來的最高水平。德國在魏瑪共和國時期曾經(jīng)發(fā)生過惡性通貨膨脹。因此，德國從那之后一直把通脹視作大敵。當(dāng)前無論是美聯(lián)儲還是歐央行都認(rèn)為通脹是暫時的，因為通脹中的較大上升來自于供應(yīng)鏈的破壞。但這個暫時要持續(xù)多久沒有人知道。歐美疫情控制不力很可能使供應(yīng)鏈再次遭到打擊。同時，很多大宗商品價格持續(xù)飆升，對通脹也構(gòu)成壓力。

        肆 央行如何應(yīng)對？

        如果通脹不是暫時的，則各國央行面臨較大挑戰(zhàn)。如果過早收回流動性，經(jīng)濟復(fù)蘇將會夭折。歐央行在2008年全球金融危機之后就曾經(jīng)犯過這樣的錯誤，導(dǎo)致歐洲經(jīng)濟陷入二次衰退。但如果落后于通脹，則通脹有失控的風(fēng)險。經(jīng)濟不那么差，通脹可能會很高，這種情況下我國央行會如何應(yīng)對呢? 也許市場期待的對經(jīng)濟支持的政策要等得更久一點。

       伍 過去幾年美股九月份是上漲的

       因8月出口數(shù)據(jù)超預(yù)期，A股和港股上漲。上證指數(shù)已經(jīng)逼近前期高點，有策略師看到4000點。美股因擔(dān)憂Delta疫情的負(fù)面影響而下跌。高盛調(diào)低美國2021年經(jīng)濟增速預(yù)測至5.7%，市場普遍預(yù)期在6.2%。摩根·斯坦利將美國股市評級下調(diào)到低配，認(rèn)為9、10月份股市將會面臨調(diào)整壓力。9月份歷史上看確實是一個調(diào)整的月份，但是過去幾年9月份都是上漲的。

I. Export-import data was better than expected 

China export in August jumped 25.6% year-on-year, better than 17.1% expected and higher than 19.3% in July. Export grew across the board but thatto Europe grew the fastest. Import grew 33.1%, higher than expected as well.The better-than-expected import-export data was because that overseas orders shifted from Southeast Asia to China as COVID-19 pandemic made countries in Southeast Asia hard to organize mass production. Moreover, due to the shipping challenges orders for the Christmas festival were made earlier than previous. Export growth in China could be maintained at a relatively high level in the remaining four months of this year. This is mainly due to the pandemic. Around the world only China can control the spread of Delta variant in an efficient way. As such the 3rd and 4th quarter economic growth might not slow down too much in China. 

II. Inflation is higher than expected

Yet inflation is still a concern around the world. Germany saw its Consumer Price Index (CPI) inAugust rose 3.9% year-on-year, the highest reading from Dec. 1993. The CPI in Euro-region reached 3% year-on-year, the highest in 10 years. Germany ever suffered hyperinflation in history. Hence, policy makers in Germany always take inflation as their top policy target.

III. Challenges for central banks 

However, at this moment both the Federal Reserve in the US and the European Central Bank (ECB) consider inflation as transitory.Yet, it is hard to make it clear how long the transitory inflation would last.This actually poses big challenges for these policy makers. ECB made a mistake in 2011 by withdrawing supporting policies earlier and caused the Euro-region tobe in depression for the second time after 2008 global financial crises. This time they wowed not to make the same mistake. Yet given the high inflation,they might risk acting too late. For China if economy is better than expected,then the supporting policies might come later than expected.

IV. Market summary

The better-than-expected export-import data in August boosted both A-share and HK stocks. DOW and SP500 fell due to concern on the pandemic.

聲明：本市場點評由北京楓瑞資產(chǎn)管理有限公司（以下簡稱“楓瑞資產(chǎn)”）“楓瑞視點”微信公眾號提供和擁有版權(quán)，授權(quán)上海海獅資產(chǎn)管理有限公司轉(zhuǎn)載。在任何情況下文中信息或所表述的意見不構(gòu)成對任何人的投資建議，楓瑞資產(chǎn)不對任何人因使用本文中的內(nèi)容所引發(fā)的損失負(fù)任何責(zé)任。未經(jīng)楓瑞資產(chǎn)書面授權(quán)，本文中的內(nèi)容均不得以任何侵犯楓瑞資產(chǎn)版權(quán)的方式使用和轉(zhuǎn)載。市場有風(fēng)險，投資需謹(jǐn)慎。

        壹 護城河是指什么？

       1999年，沃倫巴菲特在《財富》雜志發(fā)表了一篇文章，談到了護城河，并指出“被寬闊的、長流不息的護城河所保護的產(chǎn)品或服務(wù)能夠為投資者帶來烽火的回報”。企業(yè)的護城河包括無形資產(chǎn)（品牌、專利和監(jiān)管牌照）、成本優(yōu)勢、顧客粘性、規(guī)模效應(yīng)和進入壁壘等方面。

        貳 護城河五要素

       無形資產(chǎn)和成本優(yōu)勢都比較好理解。顧客粘性在很大程度上是指顧客使用產(chǎn)品的轉(zhuǎn)換成本。如果轉(zhuǎn)換成本很高，一般顧客很難轉(zhuǎn)換。比如一些手機零部件生產(chǎn)企業(yè)，通常在手機品牌商開始設(shè)計產(chǎn)品時就參與進來，這種情況下被換掉的概率較低。當(dāng)然也不排除表現(xiàn)不太好的被淘汰的可能性。規(guī)模效應(yīng)就是指增加新的客戶對企業(yè)帶來的額外生產(chǎn)成本是遞減的。通常，規(guī)模越大，企業(yè)的生產(chǎn)成本越低。當(dāng)然規(guī)模效應(yīng)是有邊界的。比如養(yǎng)奶牛的牧場可能幾千頭是合適的規(guī)模。萬頭牧場所帶來的環(huán)境污染以及對草場的壓力就會大很多，所以，規(guī)模大反而不經(jīng)濟，適度最好。進入壁壘通常是指巨額的資本投入或銷售費用的投入。比如芯片行業(yè)的投資動輒上千億美金，這就帶來了很大的進入壁壘。

      叁 護城河被打破了？

     如果一家公司能夠通過競爭優(yōu)勢，維持至少10年賺取超額收益的能力，則該公司擁有比較寬廣的護城河。但護城河不是靜態(tài)的，而是動態(tài)發(fā)展的。年初至今，一些擁有寬廣護城河的公司跌幅較大。他們的護城河被打破了嗎？護城河其實沒有被打破，但某些方面確實變得不那么具有競爭力了。比如一家醫(yī)藥公司，其研發(fā)費用占收入的比例一直保持在雙位數(shù)，研發(fā)能力保持在市場前列。但是，由于藥品集采失利，研發(fā)能力無法體現(xiàn)到盈利上，導(dǎo)致企業(yè)的業(yè)績低迷，被投資者拋售。再比如一家食品飲料公司，其品牌優(yōu)勢明顯，但是由于產(chǎn)品價格高企導(dǎo)致客戶粘性下降，市場擔(dān)心這會影響未來的成長性。因此，有了護城河并不是一勞永逸，企業(yè)還需要不斷地努力以保持護城河的寬度和深度。否則，就有短期股價大幅調(diào)整的風(fēng)險。

      肆 全球股市上漲

     A股和港股在消費醫(yī)藥股帶領(lǐng)下大幅反彈，美股因勞動節(jié)休市。8月份中國經(jīng)濟數(shù)據(jù)即將發(fā)布，值得關(guān)注。

I. What is the moat?

In 1999 Warren Buffett published a famous article in Fortune magazine, in which he pointed out that a company with a broad moat that can last for a long time can make a lot of money for investors. The so-called moat of a company includes intangible assets such as brands, patents and supervision rules, cost advantage, viscosity of customers, scale effects and entry barriers. 

II. Five elements of a moat 

Intangible assets and cost advantage are easy to understand. A type of viscosity of customers refers to the high costs for a customer to shift to another producer or service provider. A case in point is in mobile components and parts producers. They usually participate in the mobile phone design of mobile brands from the beginning and adjust their production accordingly. Mobile brands would face big cost to shift to other components and parts producers. Scale effects are also familiar to investors. Yet scale effects have boundaries. It is not the truth that the bigger the scale the better the results. Take the example of raising milk cows, a couple of thousands milk cows have scale effects. But 10 thousand orabove would cause environmental issues and put a pressure to the grasslands. A type of entry barriers refer to big capital expenditure. This is especially true in foundry sector, in which US$ 100 billion capital expenditure is not unusual. 

III. The moat can change

The moat is not static but changes from time to time. Year-to-date stock prices of some companies with broad moats have fallen sharply, implying  that their moats are not strong in some aspects. Take the example of an innovative drug producer it has maintained its research and development cost to its sales ratio at double digits for years and enjoy competitive advantages in innovation drugs. However, due to that it lost in bids to national mass procurement of drugs its innovation advantage can not be turned into profits. In summary a company should make efforts to maintain its moat as long as possible.

IV. Global stock markets rose 

A share and HK stocks rose.Healthcare and food and beverage sector led the rally. The US stock market closed for Labor Day holiday.  

聲明：本市場點評由北京楓瑞資產(chǎn)管理有限公司（以下簡稱“楓瑞資產(chǎn)”）“楓瑞視點”微信公眾號提供和擁有版權(quán)，授權(quán)上海海獅資產(chǎn)管理有限公司轉(zhuǎn)載。在任何情況下文中信息或所表述的意見不構(gòu)成對任何人的投資建議，楓瑞資產(chǎn)不對任何人因使用本文中的內(nèi)容所引發(fā)的損失負(fù)任何責(zé)任。未經(jīng)楓瑞資產(chǎn)書面授權(quán)，本文中的內(nèi)容均不得以任何侵犯楓瑞資產(chǎn)版權(quán)的方式使用和轉(zhuǎn)載。市場有風(fēng)險，投資需謹(jǐn)慎。