精品网曝门白浆一区二区三区_国产精品线在线精品国语_亚洲国产三级在线观看看_日本在线一区二区三区免费观看_亚洲成a人片在线观看无遮挡_久久99精品久久久久婷婷_精品国产aⅴ_蜜臀av电影在线观看_欧美一区二区三区四区在线观看_狠狠色丁香婷婷久久综合考虑

股價(jià)見頂?shù)男盘?hào)之一。在《投資者的未來》一書中，沃頓商學(xué)院教授杰里米·西格爾描寫了他在網(wǎng)絡(luò)泡沫破滅之前因發(fā)表了一篇質(zhì)疑網(wǎng)絡(luò)股估值的文章而遭受的種種質(zhì)疑。他這篇文章在1999年4月19日發(fā)表于華爾街日?qǐng)?bào)，所舉的例子是美國在線。美國在線在2000年至2009年期間是美國時(shí)代華納的子公司，是著名的因特網(wǎng)服務(wù)提供商。在2000年美國在線和時(shí)代華納宣布合并，2001年1月11日該交易被聯(lián)邦貿(mào)易委員會(huì)證實(shí)。該公司在西格爾發(fā)表文章時(shí)靜態(tài)市盈率為700倍，動(dòng)態(tài)市盈率450倍，市值高達(dá)2000億美金。對(duì)于如此高的估值，美林的網(wǎng)絡(luò)股票分析師亨利·布洛杰特認(rèn)為這是有經(jīng)典的衡量標(biāo)準(zhǔn)作為依據(jù)的。西格爾卻認(rèn)為他是在愚弄大眾，他認(rèn)為“為一家科技類先鋒公司定價(jià)所需使用的工具和為IBM即過去的其他科技巨人定價(jià)所使用的工具并沒有什么區(qū)別”。西格爾的文章引發(fā)了投資人的強(qiáng)烈不滿。一些投資人認(rèn)為他對(duì)先進(jìn)的商務(wù)模式一無所知，在識(shí)別機(jī)遇方面的水平等同于幼兒。還有一些投資人認(rèn)為沃頓商學(xué)院應(yīng)該趕快讓他退休，否則商學(xué)院的名譽(yù)將受到損害。在遭遇這一切之后，西格爾意識(shí)到投資人愛上了他們所投資的股票，這其實(shí)也是股價(jià)見頂?shù)男盘?hào)之一。通常在股價(jià)接近或達(dá)到泡沫時(shí)期，投資人通常不會(huì)理性地看待股票，他們相信這次不一樣。但結(jié)果往往是泡沫破裂。周末爆出的A股半導(dǎo)體行業(yè)賣方分析師和實(shí)業(yè)界人士的爭(zhēng)論其實(shí)是西格爾所遭遇的一切的翻版。歷史不會(huì)重復(fù)，但會(huì)踏著同樣的韻腳。當(dāng)前A股的部分行業(yè)的股票估值也達(dá)到了幾百倍的市盈率，而投資人支付這么高的估值的理由也是這次不一樣。但是，歷史證明，這次不一樣是投資中最昂貴的一句話。美國在線在2015年被威瑞森通信收購，收購價(jià)格為45億美金，估值較2000年高點(diǎn)下跌98%。

A股巨量反彈，港股縮量上漲。A股申萬28個(gè)行業(yè)中僅有鋼鐵、采掘和休閑服務(wù)板塊下跌，建筑材料、汽車和國防軍工板塊領(lǐng)漲。港股12個(gè)行業(yè)中，只有公用事業(yè)行業(yè)下跌，原材料、工業(yè)和電訊行業(yè)領(lǐng)漲。美股尾盤跳水，因投資人擔(dān)憂疫情加劇影響經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇。10年期國債收益率下跌到1.17%。

A sign that stock price is peaking. Jeremy Siegel described what happened to him after he published an article on Wall Street Journal on April 19th 1999 about the high valuation of internet stocks. He cited American Online as an example. American Online is an internet provider and combined with Time Warner in 2001. The stock was valued at trailing-twelve-month price-to-earnings ratio of 700x and forward-looking price-to-earnings ratio 450x. Its market cap reached US$200billion at that time. The Merrill Lynch internet analyst Henry Blodget said that American Online was valued on classic valuation metric. Yet Siegel believed that he was just making a fool of common investors and insisted that there would be no major differences of valuation metric for a pioneer technology company such as American online and the past tech giant such as IBM. Siegel then suffered critics from many investors. Some sent email to tell him that he did not have the capabilities to understand new technology. Some asked Wharton School to let Siegel retire as soon as possible so that he would not hurt the reputation of the school. What happened to Siegel is very similar to what happened to a tech guy from a leading semiconductor company over the past weekend. He was also criticized by a sell-side analyst as knowing little about semiconductor sector. According to Siegel this usually means that investors fall in love with the stocks they invest. This is one of the signs that stock price is peaking. Currently in A-share there are also companies in semiconductor and other sectors valued at an extreme level.Investors believe that this time it is different, which turns out to be the most expensive words for investors. American Online was acquired by Verizon in 2015 at a price of US$4.5 billion, down 98% from its peak valuation in 1999.

A-share rallied with big trading volume while HK stocks rose with contracted volume. The US stocks dived at the final trading hour as investors were concerned that Delta variant could hamper economic recovery. The US 10-year treasury yield fell to 1.17% and oil prices fell sharply as well. 

聲明：本市場(chǎng)點(diǎn)評(píng)由北京楓瑞資產(chǎn)管理有限公司（以下簡(jiǎn)稱“楓瑞資產(chǎn)”）“楓瑞視點(diǎn)”微信公眾號(hào)提供和擁有版權(quán)，授權(quán)上海海獅資產(chǎn)管理有限公司轉(zhuǎn)載。在任何情況下文中信息或所表述的意見不構(gòu)成對(duì)任何人的投資建議，楓瑞資產(chǎn)不對(duì)任何人因使用本文中的內(nèi)容所引發(fā)的損失負(fù)任何責(zé)任。未經(jīng)楓瑞資產(chǎn)書面授權(quán)，本文中的內(nèi)容均不得以任何侵犯楓瑞資產(chǎn)版權(quán)的方式使用和轉(zhuǎn)載。市場(chǎng)有風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，投資需謹(jǐn)慎。

股市里沒有永遠(yuǎn)的神。近期白酒板塊大幅下跌，引發(fā)投資人的熱議。我們之前曾多次在楓瑞視點(diǎn)微信公眾號(hào)中討論過這一板塊，具體請(qǐng)參見股票的定價(jià)不能建立在遙遠(yuǎn)的未來、A股市場(chǎng)的割裂等。在某賣方上調(diào)某著名消費(fèi)股目標(biāo)價(jià)的時(shí)候，分析了牛市中賣方分析師的作用。我們一直想傳達(dá)的是：投資中最重要的就是盈利和估值的匹配。市場(chǎng)火熱的時(shí)候，投資人通常都關(guān)注趨勢(shì)不關(guān)注估值。這些投資人很容易在趨勢(shì)逆轉(zhuǎn)的時(shí)候，產(chǎn)品業(yè)績(jī)受到?jīng)_擊。有投資人問追逐成長股難道不是一個(gè)很好的投資策略嗎？確實(shí)，至少在過去十年，成長股策略是遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)跑贏價(jià)值股的。一個(gè)典型的例子就是作為股神的巴菲特，近些年來收益率較低，與其堅(jiān)守價(jià)值股而沒有配置科技成長股有很大的關(guān)系。但是，成長股有成長股的煩惱。一個(gè)就是快速成長的時(shí)間不會(huì)是永久的。通常而言，一家公司能有幾年的高增長就是很好的公司了。其次，由于投資人都喜歡成長股，估值一般都比較高。尤其2008年金融危機(jī)以來，成長股的估值遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)高于價(jià)值股。這是由于2008年金融危機(jī)以來，全球經(jīng)濟(jì)低速成長，成長股變得很稀缺有很大關(guān)系。但是，今年情況發(fā)生了逆轉(zhuǎn)。很多周期股的業(yè)績(jī)?cè)鏊俣即蟪A(yù)期，而且估值都很低。這對(duì)傳統(tǒng)的消費(fèi)醫(yī)藥成長股構(gòu)成了沖擊。今年消費(fèi)醫(yī)藥行業(yè)業(yè)績(jī)?cè)鏊儆兴啪?，抱團(tuán)基金逐漸減倉這些板塊，有的加倉到周期性行業(yè)上，有的選擇其他成長賽道。所以，股市里沒有一直漲的股票，也沒有永遠(yuǎn)的神。時(shí)刻對(duì)市場(chǎng)保持敬畏。

疫情下中美經(jīng)濟(jì)面臨下行風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。中國7月官方制造業(yè)采購經(jīng)理人指數(shù)回落，美經(jīng)濟(jì)2季度增速低于預(yù)期。全球Delta 病毒肆虐，預(yù)計(jì)對(duì)3季度經(jīng)濟(jì)增長可能造成一定沖擊。從周期來看，中國經(jīng)濟(jì)已經(jīng)進(jìn)入庫存周期的下行期，美國經(jīng)濟(jì)有可能在3季度進(jìn)入庫存周期下行期。中央政治局工作會(huì)議釋放出的政策信號(hào)對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)友好，下半年財(cái)政政策應(yīng)偏積極，4季度隨著經(jīng)濟(jì)下行壓力加大，貨幣政策有進(jìn)一步放松可能。

上周（ 下同）A股和港股領(lǐng)跌全球。上證指數(shù)、深成指和恒生指數(shù)分別下跌4.98%、4.3%和3.69%。港股通凈流出227億人民幣，創(chuàng)下港股通開通以來的最大周度凈流出。這一方面與港股大跌有關(guān)，另一方面港股自8月1日上調(diào)交易印花稅。

There is no the invincible in stock markets. With the broad market declining that liquor sector fell more than any other sector has provoked a lot of discussion. We have discussed liquor in our official wechat “Maple Insights” in “Stocks should not be valued based on a far future”, “The divergence in A-share” and “What a sell-side analyst usually does in a bull market”. We want to convey the idea that a stock should be valued in line with its earnings growth rate. However, in a bull market few investors pay attention to valuation as the upward trend seems to last forever. As such when the trend reverses investors would suffer big losses. From 2008 global financial crises global economy was in low growth rate mode. High growth has become a scarcity and growth stocks are valued at an extreme level. Yet since the pandemic the low-valued cyclical sectors has seen earnings growth accelerate. Also in 2021 consumption and healthcare stocks saw their growth rate come down. As a result those funds huddled in these two sectors flied away. They either put their money in cyclical sectors or other growth sectors. So no stocks can rise forever. We should pay attention to valuation when investing in a stock and always remain humble in the stock market.  

Delta variant poses downside risk to global economic growth.  China July official manufacturing Purchasing Manager’s Index showed that economy was slowing down. Moreover, Delta variant caused new cases to surge both at home and abroad. China has seen inventory cycle to begin a downward trend in March while the US is still waiting for the peak of its economy, which might come in 3Q2021. Yet China’s fiscal policy might become more accommodative in 2H2021. And if economy faces more challenges in 4Q2021 monetary policy could become more easing, for example, by cutting interest rate. Last week A-share and HK stocks fell the most among the global 16 major indexes. HK-connect saw the largest weekly net outflow since it began both due to the stock market tumble last week and that HK will raise stamp duty for stock trading from August 1st . 

聲明：本市場(chǎng)點(diǎn)評(píng)由北京楓瑞資產(chǎn)管理有限公司（以下簡(jiǎn)稱“楓瑞資產(chǎn)”）“楓瑞視點(diǎn)”微信公眾號(hào)提供和擁有版權(quán)，授權(quán)上海海獅資產(chǎn)管理有限公司轉(zhuǎn)載。在任何情況下文中信息或所表述的意見不構(gòu)成對(duì)任何人的投資建議，楓瑞資產(chǎn)不對(duì)任何人因使用本文中的內(nèi)容所引發(fā)的損失負(fù)任何責(zé)任。未經(jīng)楓瑞資產(chǎn)書面授權(quán)，本文中的內(nèi)容均不得以任何侵犯楓瑞資產(chǎn)版權(quán)的方式使用和轉(zhuǎn)載。市場(chǎng)有風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，投資需謹(jǐn)慎。

美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)能否退出寬松貨幣政策？美國2季度GDP實(shí)際年化增速為6.4%，雖然較1季度的6.3%有所提高，但大幅低于市場(chǎng)預(yù)期的8.4%。同時(shí)，周四披露的上周初次申請(qǐng)失業(yè)救濟(jì)人數(shù)為40萬，這大概是疫情前初次申請(qǐng)失業(yè)救濟(jì)人數(shù)的2倍，同時(shí)高于市場(chǎng)預(yù)期的38萬人。雖然美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)在7月份的議息會(huì)議上明示將要考慮削減債券購買，但美國10年期國債收益率仍回落到1.264%的低水平。10年期國債收益率代表聯(lián)邦基金利率的終極水平。該收益率回落意味著市場(chǎng)不相信美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)能夠重復(fù)15-18年的加息周期。在這個(gè)加息周期中，美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)9次加息，最終聯(lián)邦基金利率在2018年11月達(dá)到3.2%的高水平。美國當(dāng)前的國債規(guī)模接近30萬億美金（下同），而每年的GDP增速在2-3%之間。20萬億GDP意味著每年的GDP增量?jī)H為4000-6000億。這就是說美國的聯(lián)邦基金利率不能超過2%，否則美國經(jīng)濟(jì)增量連還利息都不夠。從歐洲和日本的經(jīng)驗(yàn)看，寬松貨幣政策一旦實(shí)施都很難退出。因?yàn)榻?jīng)濟(jì)體對(duì)低利率產(chǎn)生依賴性之后，流動(dòng)性收緊對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)體會(huì)造成較大風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。首先，利率上升會(huì)刺破資產(chǎn)泡沫。以美國為例，如果流動(dòng)性收緊超出預(yù)期，股市泡沫就面臨破滅的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。美國2008年次貸危機(jī)爆發(fā)，也是因?yàn)榧酉⒋唐屏朔康禺a(chǎn)泡沫。其次，歐美等發(fā)達(dá)國家消費(fèi)占GDP比重較高，通常在70-80%,而消費(fèi)信貸是支撐經(jīng)濟(jì)的一個(gè)重要工具。如果利率上升，對(duì)消費(fèi)不利，進(jìn)而阻礙GDP增速。美國2008年金融危機(jī)發(fā)生后開始實(shí)行寬松的貨幣政策。2015年開始退出寬松貨幣政策，主要是因?yàn)槊绹?jīng)濟(jì)增速強(qiáng)勁，也使美國成為唯一一個(gè)能夠退出寬松貨幣政策的發(fā)達(dá)國家。而日本實(shí)行了一輪又一輪的寬松貨幣政策，經(jīng)濟(jì)始終沒有較好表現(xiàn)，無奈只能繼續(xù)寬松。日本央行成為日本股票市場(chǎng)最大的持有者。從2季度GDP增速以及其他經(jīng)濟(jì)數(shù)據(jù)看，美國經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇并沒有想象中的強(qiáng)勁。有鑒于此，美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)有 可能會(huì)不斷推遲退出寬松貨幣政策的時(shí)間點(diǎn)。

A股和港股都大幅反彈。因美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)維持0利率，美股上漲。Delta病毒在美國和英國造成死亡病例的抬升。英國宣布全部接種疫苗的歐美國家人員無需隔離。英國因限制海外游客，每天承擔(dān)的經(jīng)濟(jì)損失達(dá)到6.39億英鎊。

It might be challenging for the Federal Reserve to exit from quantitative easing policy (QE). The 2nd quarter GDP annualized growth rate in the US came in at 6.8%, though higher than 6.3% in the 1st quarter but significantly lower than 8.4% market expected. The initial jobless claim last week was 400,000, higher than 380,000 expected too. In the meantime the 10-year treasury yield, which is considered as the terminal rate of Fed fund rate, came down to 1.264%. Traders don’t see the Fed repeating the 2015-2018 hiking cycle, which brought the policy rate band to 2.25%-2.50% in December 2018, and a peak 10-year rate of 3.2% in November 2018. The US government debt is close to US$30 trillion. Its GDP is atUS$20 trillion and could grow at 2-3% annually, meaning that the incremental value of GDP is US$40-60 million. This implies that the Fed fund rate should not be higher than 2%. Otherwise the US can not repay interest of its government debt, not to mention principal. The Bank of America forecast 10y rates at 1.9% at the end of 2021 but with downside risk. In 2013 the US gradually exited from QE that began from 2008 global financial crises due to its strong economic growth and becomes the first nation that successfully exited QE in history. Economy would become reliant on QE. Hence, if exiting it a nation would risk bubble burst and economic growth slowing down. Take the example of Japan it can not exit QE due to weak economic growth and has to pump liquidity into the economy again and again. The Bank of Japan has become the largest holder of Japanese stocks. The Federal Reserve might face the same challenges if the US economy can not grow robustly.

Both A-share and HK stocks rebounded strongly. Chinext Index in A-share and Tech Index in HK led the rally. The US stocks rose to record high as the Fed kept zero interest rate policy. Delta variant has caused death cases to rise in both the US and UK. Despite this, the UK government announced that it would not require those fully vaccinated from the US and Europe to be quarantined. 

聲明：本市場(chǎng)點(diǎn)評(píng)由北京楓瑞資產(chǎn)管理有限公司（以下簡(jiǎn)稱“楓瑞資產(chǎn)”）“楓瑞視點(diǎn)”微信公眾號(hào)提供和擁有版權(quán)，授權(quán)上海海獅資產(chǎn)管理有限公司轉(zhuǎn)載。在任何情況下文中信息或所表述的意見不構(gòu)成對(duì)任何人的投資建議，楓瑞資產(chǎn)不對(duì)任何人因使用本文中的內(nèi)容所引發(fā)的損失負(fù)任何責(zé)任。未經(jīng)楓瑞資產(chǎn)書面授權(quán)，本文中的內(nèi)容均不得以任何侵犯楓瑞資產(chǎn)版權(quán)的方式使用和轉(zhuǎn)載。市場(chǎng)有風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，投資需謹(jǐn)慎。

外資對(duì)中國市場(chǎng)的態(tài)度不一。巴倫周刊刊發(fā)文章指出，近期中國政府對(duì)科技和教培公司的整治對(duì)股市構(gòu)成沉重打擊，明晟中國市場(chǎng)指數(shù)從2月份高點(diǎn)下跌了30%。海外投資人還擔(dān)心中美關(guān)系可能在未來6-12個(gè)月對(duì)股市構(gòu)成更大風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。中國政府有可能出臺(tái)的不可靠實(shí)體清單會(huì)進(jìn)一步惡化中美關(guān)系。鑒于中美關(guān)系不確定性以及對(duì)中國政府有可能出臺(tái)更多打擊個(gè)別行業(yè)的政策，外資在衡量股價(jià)的安全邊際是多少。瑞銀全球財(cái)富管理部門的首席策略師認(rèn)為機(jī)構(gòu)投資者在評(píng)估當(dāng)前中國政府對(duì)科技和教培行業(yè)的政策風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，這可能會(huì)需要幾周的時(shí)間。他傾向認(rèn)為機(jī)構(gòu)投資者在評(píng)估結(jié)束后會(huì)清倉中國股票，因而股市仍有下行風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，當(dāng)前并不是抄底的好時(shí)機(jī)。但是需關(guān)注下面三種情況是否能夠推動(dòng)股市上行。一個(gè)是7月底的政治局經(jīng)濟(jì)工作會(huì)議；第二個(gè)是如果中國經(jīng)濟(jì)增速放慢，則政府可能會(huì)轉(zhuǎn)而刺激經(jīng)濟(jì)，政策風(fēng)險(xiǎn)將會(huì)降低；第三個(gè)是中美關(guān)系能否短期內(nèi)大幅改善。摩根大通私人銀行的策略分析師相對(duì)更看好A股，因?yàn)锳股沒有互聯(lián)網(wǎng)平臺(tái)公司上市，而且外資持股比例相對(duì)較低，外資流出的沖擊相對(duì)較小。他認(rèn)為碳中和中國本地化的政策取向會(huì)使A股上市公司受益。摩根大通還將中國政府與韓國政府從1980年打擊課外培訓(xùn)進(jìn)行對(duì)比。因?yàn)檠a(bǔ)課需求仍然存在，之后韓國政府放松了相關(guān)的政策。當(dāng)前無法預(yù)知中國政策的下一步走向。隨著A股和港股市場(chǎng)的大跌，人民幣和港幣匯率都大幅回落。人民幣兌美元匯率截止周二亞洲交易時(shí)間收盤較上周五下跌1%，周三有所恢復(fù)。港幣兌美元匯率也下跌到4月以來的新低--7.7849。瑞穗銀行認(rèn)為人民幣匯率將會(huì)在雙向波動(dòng)中趨勢(shì)走軟。據(jù)彭博社報(bào)道，中國證監(jiān)會(huì)周三召集國際投行中國區(qū)負(fù)責(zé)人開會(huì)，傳達(dá)針對(duì)教培和互聯(lián)網(wǎng)平臺(tái)的政策不會(huì)外溢到其他行業(yè)。中國資本市場(chǎng)是全球資本市場(chǎng)的有機(jī)組成部分，中國不會(huì)尋求與全球資本市場(chǎng)脫鉤，特別是與美國市場(chǎng)。

港股反彈，A股小幅下跌。港股前期備受打擊的醫(yī)藥、教培、物業(yè)管理板塊大幅反彈。A股申萬28個(gè)行業(yè)中6個(gè)上漲，醫(yī)藥、食品飲料、銀行板塊漲幅領(lǐng)先。美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)7月議息會(huì)議結(jié)束，美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)主席鮑威爾認(rèn)為經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇強(qiáng)勁，但還沒到削減債券購買的時(shí)候。美股漲跌不一，納指上漲，道指和標(biāo)普500小幅回落。

International investors view China stock market differently. Barron’s published an article, in which it said that international investors were cautious about China’s stocks after MSCI China Indexfell 30% from the high reached in Feb. this year. Investors also worry that tensions between China and the US might put another dent to the stock market in 6-12 months. They also worry that the unreliable entity list that Chinese government might bring up could hurt the capital markets further. The UBS Wealth Management Chief Investment Officer thought that international investors are in the process of valuing Chinese stocks under the new circumstances. But he believed that they might liquidate Chinese stocks after the evaluation and it is not the time to bottom-fish Chinese stocks. He also mentioned three catalysts for a good run of Chinese stocks. The first is the political bureau meeting at the end of July. The second is that if Chinese economy slows down the policy focus would shift to boost economic growth. The third is that the significant improvement of the Sino-US relationship. JP Morgan viewed Chinese stocks differently from UBS. It thought A-share would perform better than HK stocks as there are no platform internet companies listing in A-share and that A-share is less exposed to international funds. China's decarbonization and localization policy would benefit onshore market. With RMB and HK$ to US dollar depreciating,Mizuho Bank predicted that RMB would continue depreciation though in a volatile mode in the future. Bloomberg reported that Chinese Securities Regulatory Committee held a virtual meeting with major international banks on Wednesday. The key takeaways are that policies targeted education, property, fintech and anti-trust are for a brighter future of China. China is well aware that Chinese capital markets are integrally tied into global markets and none of the policies are meant to decouple from global markets, particularly the US markets.

HK stocks rebounded strongly while A-share fell slightly.The sectors falling sharply including tutoring and healthcare led the rebound. 

聲明：本市場(chǎng)點(diǎn)評(píng)由北京楓瑞資產(chǎn)管理有限公司（以下簡(jiǎn)稱“楓瑞資產(chǎn)”）“楓瑞視點(diǎn)”微信公眾號(hào)提供和擁有版權(quán)，授權(quán)上海海獅資產(chǎn)管理有限公司轉(zhuǎn)載。在任何情況下文中信息或所表述的意見不構(gòu)成對(duì)任何人的投資建議，楓瑞資產(chǎn)不對(duì)任何人因使用本文中的內(nèi)容所引發(fā)的損失負(fù)任何責(zé)任。未經(jīng)楓瑞資產(chǎn)書面授權(quán)，本文中的內(nèi)容均不得以任何侵犯楓瑞資產(chǎn)版權(quán)的方式使用和轉(zhuǎn)載。市場(chǎng)有風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，投資需謹(jǐn)慎。

沒有躺贏，更不能躺平。當(dāng)公平成為資本市場(chǎng)的主旋律時(shí)，效率可能會(huì)受到一定的影響。這也是這兩天港股互聯(lián)網(wǎng)板塊大跌的原因之一。公平首要目標(biāo)是消除壟斷，因此互聯(lián)網(wǎng)平臺(tái)首當(dāng)其沖的成為整治對(duì)象。無論是騰訊還是美團(tuán)、阿里巴巴都在各自的領(lǐng)域處于絕對(duì)壟斷地位。這與美國的情況如出一轍。谷歌、亞馬遜、臉書分別在搜索、電子商務(wù)和社交平臺(tái)上的市場(chǎng)份額超過70%，處于絕對(duì)壟斷地位。大科技公司處于壟斷地位不僅壓制了小公司的成長，而且有可能會(huì)阻礙創(chuàng)新。一個(gè)充滿活力的經(jīng)濟(jì)體，顯然不能讓大企業(yè)躺贏。當(dāng)然，也不能讓年輕人因?yàn)榻?jīng)濟(jì)壓力巨大而躺平。我們的鄰國日韓兩國，年輕人都因?yàn)榻?jīng)濟(jì)壓力巨大而躺平，對(duì)社會(huì)和經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展造成嚴(yán)重的負(fù)面影響。沒有躺贏，意味著社會(huì)可以依靠創(chuàng)新而進(jìn)步；沒有躺平，就意味著經(jīng)濟(jì)活力可以長久的保持。

恐慌下跌之后反彈將隨時(shí)展開。周二港股在互聯(lián)網(wǎng)、教育板塊和房地產(chǎn)公司的帶動(dòng)下一路走低。周一和周二兩天合計(jì)，港股恒生12個(gè)行業(yè)中只有公用事業(yè)板塊上漲，其余11個(gè)板塊下跌。跌幅居前的是醫(yī)療保健、資訊科技、非必需消費(fèi)和房地產(chǎn)，分別下跌17%、16.2%、9.1和8%，這幾個(gè)板塊分別對(duì)應(yīng)著“新三座大山”和互聯(lián)網(wǎng)平臺(tái)。港股市場(chǎng)有外資持續(xù)流出，因擔(dān)憂對(duì)個(gè)別板塊可能再出針對(duì)性的政策，譬如醫(yī)藥行業(yè)等。A股申萬28個(gè)行業(yè)周一和周二兩個(gè)交易日累計(jì)全部下跌，跌幅居前的是食品飲料、建筑材料、休閑服務(wù)和房地產(chǎn)，分別下跌10%、7.9%、7.7%和7.7%。A股沒有互聯(lián)網(wǎng)平臺(tái)公司上市，K12教育上市公司也較少，所以A股下跌的邏輯跟港股有所不同，主要是來自于抱團(tuán)股的瓦解，食品飲料、建筑材料以及休閑服務(wù)都是抱團(tuán)集中的行業(yè)。從估值看，港股估值已經(jīng)到了較低的水平。恒生指數(shù)估值為1.1倍的靜態(tài)市凈率，處于2000年以來14%的分位。我們認(rèn)為當(dāng)前不該恐慌拋售，而應(yīng)擇機(jī)買入。A股抱團(tuán)股雖有調(diào)整，但整體估值水平仍然較高，且未來可能會(huì)有持續(xù)調(diào)整的可能，因此不建議介入。一些不受政策影響的行業(yè)和個(gè)股估值已經(jīng)到了歷史較低水平，在這些低估值的板塊中尋找長線投資機(jī)會(huì)可能是A股當(dāng)下更好的選擇。

Big companies should not make money effortless. Fairness has replaced efficiency to be the top goal in stock market. This has a big impact on platform technology companies. China has been facedwith the same situation as the US where big tech firms including Facebook,Amazon and Google taking absolute monopolistic position in social platform,e-commerce and search sector respectively. This has proved to make small technology companies hard to grow up and hamper innovation. And under the heavy living pressure young people have given up all efforts to make life better. This would also have big negative impact on social progress and economic development from what happens in Japan and South Korea. As such it is necessary to make policy change for a brighter future in China.

The rebound of A-share and HK stocks could come at any time.Both HK and A-share fell sharply over Monday and Tuesday. Only 1 sector rose in HK during these two trading days, which is utilities.Healthcare, tech, discretionary consumption and property sector fell the most at 17%, 16.2%, 9.1% and 8% respectively. International investors sell stocks in these sectors, worrying that more policy that target some sectors could come out. There are no platform technology companies and K12 education companies listed in A-share.The falling of A-share over the last two trading days is mainly caused by selling pressure of group-holding stocks. Food and beverage, construction material, leisure service and property sector fell the most in A-share at 10%, 7.9%, 7.7% and 7.7% respectively. Apart from property sector the other three sectors are where group-holding stocks concentrate. Hang Seng Index is now valued at trailing-twelve-month price-to-book ratio 1.1x, which put it at 14% percentile since 2000. In A-share some sectors also valued at historical low levels. Given the low valuation levels it should be a good timing to buy stocks in these sectors. Group-holding stocks,although falling sharply, are still valued at high levels. They might continue to fall in the future. Hence, it might not be a good time to bottom fish these stocks.

聲明：本市場(chǎng)點(diǎn)評(píng)由北京楓瑞資產(chǎn)管理有限公司（以下簡(jiǎn)稱“楓瑞資產(chǎn)”）“楓瑞視點(diǎn)”微信公眾號(hào)提供和擁有版權(quán)，授權(quán)上海海獅資產(chǎn)管理有限公司轉(zhuǎn)載。在任何情況下文中信息或所表述的意見不構(gòu)成對(duì)任何人的投資建議，楓瑞資產(chǎn)不對(duì)任何人因使用本文中的內(nèi)容所引發(fā)的損失負(fù)任何責(zé)任。未經(jīng)楓瑞資產(chǎn)書面授權(quán)，本文中的內(nèi)容均不得以任何侵犯楓瑞資產(chǎn)版權(quán)的方式使用和轉(zhuǎn)載。市場(chǎng)有風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，投資需謹(jǐn)慎。

看估值，看估值，看估值。周一A股和港股大跌，教育培訓(xùn)和房地產(chǎn)板塊下跌應(yīng)是意料之中。讓人想不到的是白酒板塊居然跌幅居前，白酒指數(shù)當(dāng)日下跌7.22%。很多人認(rèn)為白酒基本面良好，暴跌沒有理由。上周公布的公募基金二季報(bào)顯示：雖然食品飲料還是公募基金配置最大的一個(gè)板塊，截止2季度末公募基金配置比例為16.74%，但也是減倉幅度最大的一個(gè)板塊。二季度公募基金在食品飲料板塊減倉幅度達(dá)到2.12個(gè)百分點(diǎn)。其中中小公募基金減倉食品飲料的幅度最大，規(guī)模較大的基金減倉幅度較小，真正體現(xiàn)了“船大難掉頭，船小好調(diào)頭”?；鸲緢?bào)披露出來的信號(hào)就是抱團(tuán)已經(jīng)瓦解，而股價(jià)還沒有大跌主要是時(shí)機(jī)未到。周一股價(jià)大跌白酒等板塊大跌，一個(gè)催化劑就是來自對(duì)政策的擔(dān)憂。白酒板塊過去幾年表現(xiàn)靚麗，資本介入程度也較深。有些上市公司依靠轉(zhuǎn)型白酒而實(shí)現(xiàn)了“烏雞變鳳凰”。資本介入往往意味著泡沫較大?？茨持拙乒桑词挂呀?jīng)從高點(diǎn)下跌了31%，其靜態(tài)市盈率仍高達(dá)47.7倍。白酒板塊整體靜態(tài)市盈率為48.5倍，處在歷史上92.3%的分位。估值仍然處在較高水平也說明目前并不是抄底的好時(shí)機(jī)。水井坊的二季報(bào)也是引爆板塊暴跌的一個(gè)推手。作為醬香型白酒的一個(gè)代表，水井坊二季度凈利潤為負(fù)，主要因?yàn)橘M(fèi)用投放過高導(dǎo)致。這也意味著白酒行業(yè)內(nèi)部競(jìng)爭(zhēng)的加劇。估值高疊加基本面惡化導(dǎo)致板塊大跌。其他如醫(yī)美、CXO等板塊的下跌也有類似的邏輯。在年初買入這些熱門板塊的投資人很可能都站在了山崗上。歸根結(jié)底，投資還是要看估值的，也沒有可以持有一輩子的股票。即使有，也需要?dú)v經(jīng)波折的。如何避免站在山崗上呢？一方面，在買入股票時(shí)就要關(guān)注估值。正如我們之前多次指出的，沒有企業(yè)能夠長期保持盈利的高速增長。以短期的盈利高增長而給予股票高估值，這本身就是一種風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。另一方面，要關(guān)注行業(yè)和個(gè)股的基本面變化。一旦基本面拐點(diǎn)發(fā)生，股價(jià)就要掉頭向下了。

港股跌幅大于A股。在互聯(lián)網(wǎng)、房地產(chǎn)和教育板塊的帶領(lǐng)下，港股周一大跌。博彩板塊跌幅也較大，應(yīng)該跟疫情相關(guān)。南京疫情持續(xù)擴(kuò)散，珠海等地又發(fā)現(xiàn)新的病例。這波疫情對(duì)3季度經(jīng)濟(jì)增長恐怕會(huì)帶來一定的沖擊。

How to avoid being the last buyers of stocks? On Monday after-school training and property sector in A-share fell sharply due to policy impact. Yet spirit sector fell even more than these two sectors. The spirit index fell 7.2%, the worst performing index in A-share. Some investors thought that the fundamentals of spirit sector were solid and did not understand why the sector fell so much. The 2nd quarter report of mutual funds revealed that food and beverage sector, which spirit sector belongs to, remained as the largest holding for mutual funds. But it was also the largest sector that mutual funds cut exposure. In the 2ndquarter mutual funds cut 2.7 percentage point of food and beverage holdings. Most of the cut should be from spirits sector as this sector attracts the most mutual funds in A-share. And the bigger the funds are, the less exposure they cut; the smaller the funds are, the more exposure they cut. This means that spirit sector is no longer a group-holding one with so many funds exiting from the sector.Stocks would go lower with catalysts. On Monday one concern that market had about the spirit sector is that there is so much money flowing into this sector both in primary and secondary market. Hence, the sector has been in bubbles.Take the example of a famous spirit stock: it is still valued at 47.7x trailing-twelve-month price-to-earnings ratio (TTW PE) even after falling 31% from its peak reached earlier this year. The spirit sector is valued at 48.5x TTW PE and at 92.5% percentile in the past 10 years. Given such high valuation levels it is not a good timing to bottom fish the sector right now. In summary investors should learn about the valuation level of a stock before buying it. It could be a risk to buy a high-valued stock just because the earnings growth of the company is fast. A company can not grow its earnings at a fast pace for a very long time. Once its earnings growth slows down valuation would also come down. 

HK stocks fell more than A-share.One reason could be that pandemic from Nanjing has spread to other parts of China.

聲明：本市場(chǎng)點(diǎn)評(píng)由北京楓瑞資產(chǎn)管理有限公司（以下簡(jiǎn)稱“楓瑞資產(chǎn)”）“楓瑞視點(diǎn)”微信公眾號(hào)提供和擁有版權(quán)，授權(quán)上海海獅資產(chǎn)管理有限公司轉(zhuǎn)載。在任何情況下文中信息或所表述的意見不構(gòu)成對(duì)任何人的投資建議，楓瑞資產(chǎn)不對(duì)任何人因使用本文中的內(nèi)容所引發(fā)的損失負(fù)任何責(zé)任。未經(jīng)楓瑞資產(chǎn)書面授權(quán)，本文中的內(nèi)容均不得以任何侵犯楓瑞資產(chǎn)版權(quán)的方式使用和轉(zhuǎn)載。市場(chǎng)有風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，投資需謹(jǐn)慎。