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中國(guó)2季度經(jīng)濟(jì)增速環(huán)比上行。中國(guó)2季度GDP同比增速為7.9%，略低于市場(chǎng)預(yù)期。環(huán)比增速為1.3%，高于1季度的0.6%，但慢于去年4季度的2.6%。工業(yè)增加值同比增速為8.3%，預(yù)期為7.8%；社會(huì)消費(fèi)品零售總額同比增速為12.1%，高于預(yù)期的11%。2季度來(lái)看，無(wú)論工業(yè)、消費(fèi)還是出口都超出市場(chǎng)預(yù)期，顯示經(jīng)濟(jì)仍處在復(fù)蘇的態(tài)勢(shì)中。值得注意的是，2季度中國(guó)仍有疫情發(fā)生，但消費(fèi)已經(jīng)有明顯改善，一方面顯示我國(guó)應(yīng)對(duì)疫情的能力，另一方面則是疫情如控制得好，其對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)的負(fù)面影響可控。

疫情下的經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇。疫情下世界經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇呈現(xiàn)兩級(jí)分化。西方發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇進(jìn)程超預(yù)期，因?yàn)橐呙缃臃N率較高；而大多數(shù)發(fā)展中國(guó)家都因?yàn)闆](méi)有或缺少疫苗，經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇一波三折。近期受到Delta變異毒株的影響，多國(guó)新冠疫情蔓延態(tài)勢(shì)加速。世界銀行北京時(shí)間周四表示，東亞和太平洋地區(qū)(除中國(guó))今年GDP增速可能會(huì)低于此前預(yù)期，因該地區(qū)的許多國(guó)家面臨疫情再次大爆發(fā)和疫苗接種率不足的問(wèn)題。世界銀行行長(zhǎng)馬爾帕斯(David Malpass)周四稱，東亞和太平洋地區(qū)(除中國(guó))今年預(yù)計(jì)將增長(zhǎng)4%，低于3月份預(yù)測(cè)的4.4%，其中緬甸等飽受疫情沖擊的國(guó)家經(jīng)濟(jì)下滑幅度將超過(guò)預(yù)期。不過(guò)，馬爾帕斯表示，如果將中國(guó)涵蓋在內(nèi)，預(yù)計(jì)該地區(qū)今年經(jīng)濟(jì)增速將達(dá)到7.7%，高于3月7.4%的預(yù)測(cè)值。世衛(wèi)組織日前也指出受Delta變異病毒影響，全球正處在第三波疫情大爆發(fā)前夕。我們認(rèn)為美國(guó)等發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家所受影響將會(huì)較小。當(dāng)前，美國(guó)餐飲和出行需求已經(jīng)恢復(fù)到疫情前的水平，經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇穩(wěn)步進(jìn)行中。

A股和港股上漲，美股漲跌不一。受到隔夜美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)鴿派立場(chǎng)的提振，A股和港股上漲。美股漲跌不一，其中納指和標(biāo)普下跌，而道指上漲。美國(guó)發(fā)布二季度業(yè)績(jī)的公司基本均超預(yù)期，但股價(jià)漲幅有限，顯示利好已經(jīng)在股價(jià)中。隨著美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇進(jìn)一步推進(jìn)，美國(guó)10年期國(guó)債收益率有可能從低位向上，對(duì)以科技股為主的納斯達(dá)克指數(shù)將會(huì)有一定的沖擊，對(duì)A股的成長(zhǎng)股也會(huì)有沖擊。

2^ndquarter GDP grew quarter-on-quarter. China’s 2nd quarter GDP grew 7.9% year-on-year(yoy), slightly lower than expectation. It rose 1.3% quarter-on-quarter, which is faster than 0.6% in 1st quarter but slower than the 4th quarter 2020. The industrial value-added grew 8.3% yoy and retail sales grew 12.1%. Both were higher than expected. In the 2nd quarter industrial value-added, retail sales and import-export came in higher than market expectation. It is also noticeable that consumption recovered strongly despite that there were pandemic cases surging in several cities in China. This reflects that China has got to know how to deal with the pandemic without affecting economy too much.

Global economic recovery in pandemic is uneven.This is because vaccines are still in shortage. For those western countries that have purchased more than enough vaccines their economic recovery has been smoothly. For example, the US dining-out and airline traffic have come back to pre-pandemic levels. Yet in East Asia and Pacific region (excluding China) due to the Delta variant the economic growth would slow down significantly. The World Bank downgraded this region’s economic growth in 2021 from 4.4% to 4%.But if China is included the region’s growth rate would be raised from 7.3% to 7.7%. WHO also warned that due to the Delta variant the world would experience the third wave of COVID-19 pandemic. Yet the developed countries would suffer less than developing countries given that their vaccination rate is pretty high. 

Both A-share and HK stocks rose due to the dovish Fed. The US market was mixed with DOW rising and SP 500 and Nasdaq falling. With strong economic recovery the US treasury yield could go up from current low levels. This would cause correction of the mega-tech stocks in the US as well as growth stocks inA-share and HK market. 

聲明：本市場(chǎng)點(diǎn)評(píng)由北京楓瑞資產(chǎn)管理有限公司（以下簡(jiǎn)稱“楓瑞資產(chǎn)”）“楓瑞視點(diǎn)”微信公眾號(hào)提供和擁有版權(quán)，授權(quán)上海海獅資產(chǎn)管理有限公司轉(zhuǎn)載。在任何情況下文中信息或所表述的意見(jiàn)不構(gòu)成對(duì)任何人的投資建議，楓瑞資產(chǎn)不對(duì)任何人因使用本文中的內(nèi)容所引發(fā)的損失負(fù)任何責(zé)任。未經(jīng)楓瑞資產(chǎn)書面授權(quán)，本文中的內(nèi)容均不得以任何侵犯楓瑞資產(chǎn)版權(quán)的方式使用和轉(zhuǎn)載。市場(chǎng)有風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，投資需謹(jǐn)慎。

白馬股不香了嗎？上證50指數(shù)中的50只權(quán)重股都是所謂白馬股。近期，這些白馬股迭創(chuàng)新低引發(fā)市場(chǎng)的關(guān)注。在這50個(gè)權(quán)重股中，權(quán)重最大的是貴州茅臺(tái)，占比15.8%，前10大權(quán)重股合計(jì)權(quán)重占指數(shù)的57%。今年以來(lái)前10大權(quán)重股表現(xiàn)較好的僅有隆基股份和藥明康德，年初以來(lái)分別上漲33%和44%。而其他八只股票要么下跌要么持平。其中跌幅較大的有恒瑞醫(yī)藥、中國(guó)平安、中信證券和萬(wàn)科企業(yè)，年初以來(lái)分別下跌35%、32%、20%和19%。貴州茅臺(tái)年初至今股價(jià)是持平的。無(wú)論中國(guó)平安還是萬(wàn)科企業(yè)，其估值都處在歷史較低或者最低的水平。為什么這些公司的股價(jià)表現(xiàn)如此疲弱呢？主要原因是基本面存在較大風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。但是基本面的弱勢(shì)其實(shí)已經(jīng)反應(yīng)到股價(jià)里了。如果未來(lái)基本面有好轉(zhuǎn)，股價(jià)將會(huì)有較好表現(xiàn)。當(dāng)然，上證50的內(nèi)部分化其實(shí)是今年A股市場(chǎng)分化的一個(gè)體現(xiàn)。今年以來(lái)漲幅最高的行業(yè)是化工，上漲28.8%；而跌幅最大的行業(yè)是非銀金融，下跌19.8%?；す傻纳蠞q主要是新能源汽車相關(guān)個(gè)股推動(dòng)的，而非銀金融中無(wú)論保險(xiǎn)還是券商今年的表現(xiàn)都不佳。保險(xiǎn)板塊因?yàn)楸ＹM(fèi)增速不及預(yù)期，行業(yè)處在低迷期。但券商板塊業(yè)績(jī)?cè)鏊倨鋵?shí)并不差，但一直被市場(chǎng)所拋棄。如何看待這種現(xiàn)象呢？這與投資者結(jié)構(gòu)有很大關(guān)系。A股市場(chǎng)中的個(gè)人投資者眾多，同時(shí)基民也很多。無(wú)論個(gè)人投資者還是基民都是趨勢(shì)投資者。市場(chǎng)上漲或者基金凈值上漲才會(huì)入市。因此，上漲的板塊似乎永遠(yuǎn)有上漲的動(dòng)力；而下跌的板塊永遠(yuǎn)有殺跌的動(dòng)力。但是，只要是趨勢(shì)就會(huì)有逆轉(zhuǎn)的那一天。一旦趨勢(shì)逆轉(zhuǎn)，無(wú)論上漲還是下跌也都會(huì)非常劇烈。所以，做好心理準(zhǔn)備，市場(chǎng)有可能會(huì)發(fā)生巨震。

美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)將會(huì)維持當(dāng)前貨幣政策。美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)主席鮑威爾認(rèn)為當(dāng)前通脹還是短暫的，未來(lái)將會(huì)趨于平穩(wěn)。但如果通脹高于預(yù)期，美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)將會(huì)調(diào)整貨幣政策。就業(yè)達(dá)到目標(biāo)仍然需要比較長(zhǎng)的時(shí)間，因此削減債券購(gòu)買可能也要等一段時(shí)間。鑒于美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)的鴿派立場(chǎng)，道指和標(biāo)普500上漲，而納指下跌，10年期國(guó)債收益率下降。A股和港股因美國(guó)6月通脹超預(yù)期擔(dān)憂美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)收緊流動(dòng)性而下跌，新能源相關(guān)板塊跌幅居前。

Blue chips did not perform. SSE 50 Index fell to new lows year-to-date (the same below). This index is composed of 50 blue-chip stocks. Kweichow Moutai has the largest weighting at 15.8%. The top-ten stocks contribute 57% of  the index weighting. Among the top-ten stocks only 2 stocks, i.e., Longi Green Energy Technology and Wuxi Apptec performed well. Wuxi Apptec rose 44% and Longi Green Energy rose 33%. The remaining 8 either fell sharply or was flat. Jiangsu Hengrui Pharmaceutical, China Ping’an, CITIC Securities and Vanke Property fell the most at 35%, 32%, 20% and 19% respectively. Some of these stocks are faced with challenges to grow their earnings such as insurance stocks. Others are faced with valuation contraction despite good earnings growth such as brokerages. While the divergence in SSE 50 Index is obvious, it actually reflects the broad market. In A-share the best-performing sector rose 28.8% while the worst-performing sector fell 19.6%.The reasons behind is that most of the individual investors and those buy mutual funds are trend-followers. They will chase those stocks and funds that perform well. This has caused the phenomenon that the better performance of the funds or stocks the more money come in and the worse performance the more money come out. Yet with the valuation of those stocks that performs well reaching the peak levels and that of those stocks that perform poorly reaching the historical low levels the divergence would narrow. Once this happens the rise or fall of stocks would be very sharp. Better be prepared for this.  

The Federal Reserve remained dovish. Fed chairman Powell said that the inflation would moderate after being at high levels for some time and the Fed would not taper until employment made progress. DOW and SP 500 rose while Nasdaq fell slightly. The 10-year treasury yield fell at the Fed’s dovish tone.Both A-share and HK stocks fell as June inflation in the US was higher than expected and market concerned that the Fed would take back liquidity earlier than expected.  New energy sector fell the most. 

聲明：本市場(chǎng)點(diǎn)評(píng)由北京楓瑞資產(chǎn)管理有限公司（以下簡(jiǎn)稱“楓瑞資產(chǎn)”）“楓瑞視點(diǎn)”微信公眾號(hào)提供和擁有版權(quán)，授權(quán)上海海獅資產(chǎn)管理有限公司轉(zhuǎn)載。在任何情況下文中信息或所表述的意見(jiàn)不構(gòu)成對(duì)任何人的投資建議，楓瑞資產(chǎn)不對(duì)任何人因使用本文中的內(nèi)容所引發(fā)的損失負(fù)任何責(zé)任。未經(jīng)楓瑞資產(chǎn)書面授權(quán)，本文中的內(nèi)容均不得以任何侵犯楓瑞資產(chǎn)版權(quán)的方式使用和轉(zhuǎn)載。市場(chǎng)有風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，投資需謹(jǐn)慎。

下半年經(jīng)濟(jì)增速要看政策的力度。下半年美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)能不能回收流動(dòng)性在很大程度上左右全球資產(chǎn)動(dòng)向。屆時(shí)，如果中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)增速下行，我們認(rèn)為中國(guó)的貨幣和財(cái)政政策將會(huì)發(fā)揮更大的支持作用。2020年新冠疫情發(fā)生以來(lái)，中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)增速領(lǐng)先全球，但我們的貨幣和財(cái)政政策都沒(méi)有像西方發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家那樣用盡全力。2020年歐美國(guó)家財(cái)政赤字都達(dá)到了雙位數(shù)，而中國(guó)的廣義財(cái)政赤字率只有8.2%。今年以來(lái)，貨幣和財(cái)政政策持續(xù)收緊。貨幣政策上，社融增量同比增速持續(xù)走低；財(cái)政政策上，專項(xiàng)債發(fā)行也不及預(yù)期。但未來(lái)隨著經(jīng)濟(jì)下行壓力加大以及美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)收回流動(dòng)性，市場(chǎng)認(rèn)為專項(xiàng)債的發(fā)行將會(huì)提速。而貨幣政策方面，廣義貨幣M2的同比增速已經(jīng)觸底回升，我們認(rèn)為3、4季度將會(huì)保持穩(wěn)健增長(zhǎng)的水平，同時(shí)不排除如經(jīng)濟(jì)超預(yù)期下行和美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)超預(yù)期回收流動(dòng)性的前提下，貨幣和財(cái)政政策超預(yù)期發(fā)力。我國(guó)6月進(jìn)出口數(shù)據(jù)再超預(yù)期，反應(yīng)國(guó)外的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)仍然強(qiáng)勁；進(jìn)口增速環(huán)比下行主要是去年的基數(shù)抬升造成的。

美國(guó)6月份消費(fèi)者價(jià)格指數(shù)上漲再超預(yù)期。美國(guó)6月份消費(fèi)者價(jià)格指數(shù)同比上漲5.3%，超出市場(chǎng)預(yù)期的4.9%，創(chuàng)下2008年8月份以來(lái)的最快漲幅。因去年6月份的消費(fèi)者價(jià)格指數(shù)已經(jīng)不是一個(gè)低基數(shù)，因此，當(dāng)前價(jià)格的上漲說(shuō)明通脹處在較高水平。環(huán)比數(shù)據(jù)可以不受去年低基數(shù)的影響。除去食品和能源的核心消費(fèi)者價(jià)格指數(shù)4-6月份平均每月上漲0.8%，意味著年化10.1%的增速，這無(wú)論如何都是一個(gè)很高的數(shù)據(jù)。通脹是暫時(shí)的還是持久的仍是當(dāng)下?tīng)?zhēng)論的焦點(diǎn)。對(duì)于那些認(rèn)為通脹是暫時(shí)的，6月份的數(shù)據(jù)也提供充分的例證。占消費(fèi)者價(jià)格指數(shù)1/3的二手汽車和卡車的價(jià)格6月份環(huán)比5月份上漲了10.5%，而這主要是由于疫情打斷供應(yīng)鏈導(dǎo)致芯片等生產(chǎn)汽車的關(guān)鍵零部件短缺所造成。如果剔除掉二手車的價(jià)格上漲，則6月份的消費(fèi)者價(jià)格指數(shù)環(huán)比5月份上漲0.5%，而核心消費(fèi)者價(jià)格指數(shù)將會(huì)上漲0.4%。美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)主席鮑威爾將于周三和周四在國(guó)會(huì)作證，市場(chǎng)預(yù)計(jì)他仍會(huì)堅(jiān)持通脹是暫時(shí)的說(shuō)法，至于暫時(shí)會(huì)持續(xù)多久仍不可知。因美國(guó)6月通脹數(shù)據(jù)超預(yù)期，美股市場(chǎng)從高位回落。

China’s economic growth in 2H2021 would largely depend on fiscal and monetary policy. When and how the Federal Reserve takes back liquidity wouldaffect global financial assets. China’s fiscal and monetary policy would becomemore proactive if China’s economy slows down more than expected and the Fed takes back liquidity earlier than expected. In 2020 China’s broad fiscal ratio of deficit was 8.2% compared with double-digit of ratio of deficit in the western developed nations. The People’s bank of China (PBOC) began to take back liquidity in 2H2020. Since the beginning of 2021 fiscal policy has been tight. The issuance of special bond has lagged behind schedule. In 2H2021 the issuance of special bond will hurry up to prevent the economy from sliding too fast. Moreover, money supply will grow steadily in 2H2021, as mentioned by the PBOC  recently. Hence, it is no need to worry too much about the Fed’s tapering in2H2021. The June export and import data in China was above expectation.

June CPI grew higher than expected in the US. Total CPI rose 5.4%in June after rising 5% in May, which was the fastest increase from August 2008. It is noticeable because June 2020 was not a low base as May 2020. Month-on-month comparison is a better reading as it excludes base effect. From April to June CPI increased at an average 0.8% per month, which translates into 10.1% annually. Hence,whether inflation is transitory or persisting is still a focus in the market. Forthose arguing that inflation is transitory the used car and truck prices provides support. In June the used car and truck prices increased 10.5% from May mainly due to the supply chain disruption. The used car and truck prices  ccount for one third of CPI. Excluding used vehicle prices, CPI would haverisen 0.5% and 0.4% in June from May. The Fed chairman Powell will testify before the congress on Wednesday and Thursday. Market expects that he maintains that inflation is transitory. Though it is unknown how long transitory inflation would last.  The US stocks retreated from record high. The 10-year treasury yield went up. 

聲明：本市場(chǎng)點(diǎn)評(píng)由北京楓瑞資產(chǎn)管理有限公司（以下簡(jiǎn)稱“楓瑞資產(chǎn)”）“楓瑞視點(diǎn)”微信公眾號(hào)提供和擁有版權(quán)，授權(quán)上海海獅資產(chǎn)管理有限公司轉(zhuǎn)載。在任何情況下文中信息或所表述的意見(jiàn)不構(gòu)成對(duì)任何人的投資建議，楓瑞資產(chǎn)不對(duì)任何人因使用本文中的內(nèi)容所引發(fā)的損失負(fù)任何責(zé)任。未經(jīng)楓瑞資產(chǎn)書面授權(quán)，本文中的內(nèi)容均不得以任何侵犯楓瑞資產(chǎn)版權(quán)的方式使用和轉(zhuǎn)載。市場(chǎng)有風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，投資需謹(jǐn)慎。

中證500和創(chuàng)業(yè)板指均放量突破。周一中證500上漲1.47%，超越了2020年7月14日的前期高點(diǎn)。中證500指數(shù)中除了天賜材料市值接近800億人民幣（下同），酒鬼酒和科沃斯市值略超500億，其余497只權(quán)重股的市值均在400億以下，市值最低的重慶燃?xì)夂椭袖X國(guó)際市值僅有11-12億。中證500當(dāng)前的靜態(tài)市盈率為22倍，處在2007年1月以來(lái)6.34%的分位點(diǎn)，即從2007年1月以來(lái)的14年多的時(shí)間里，僅有6.34%的時(shí)間中證500的估值是低于當(dāng)前水平的。雖然指數(shù)的估值水平較低，但是內(nèi)部估值差異較大。年初以來(lái)漲幅較好的新能源、半導(dǎo)體和人工智能相關(guān)板塊的估值水平較高，均在100倍市盈率以上，比如天賜材料、特銳德、士蘭微、科沃斯等?？苿?chuàng)板上市的股票估值也較高，比如微芯生物等。有32只股票仍然虧損，包括受疫情沖擊較大的酒店、航空和鐵路等企業(yè)。其余有盈利的股票中，361只的市盈率在0-50倍之間，其余109只股票市盈率在50倍以上。中證500中低估值股票占比較高。我們認(rèn)為未來(lái)指數(shù)將會(huì)持續(xù)上行，一方面中小市值公司在經(jīng)濟(jì)下行的過(guò)程中受到的沖擊較大公司而言要小，另一方面，去年以來(lái)對(duì)大市值核心資產(chǎn)的炒作已經(jīng)達(dá)到一個(gè)極致?tīng)顟B(tài)，抱團(tuán)股的籌碼松散之后必然要尋找新的方向。在中證500指數(shù)中的百億市值公司中還是能找到一些短期業(yè)績(jī)確定增長(zhǎng)的股票，這些也成為資金追捧的方向。周一創(chuàng)業(yè)板指也放量突破了2015年5月以來(lái)的高點(diǎn)，也是受到了新能源等熱門行業(yè)的帶動(dòng)。創(chuàng)業(yè)板指靜態(tài)市盈率為63.6倍，處于2010年6月份指數(shù)成立以來(lái)80%的分位。其100個(gè)權(quán)重股中55只的靜態(tài)市盈率超過(guò)50倍。資金在追捧新能源等熱門股的熱情如達(dá)到極限，高估值的股票可能面臨較大壓力。相比而言，我們更看好中證500中的低估值個(gè)股。創(chuàng)業(yè)板指未來(lái)可能會(huì)面臨估值回調(diào)的壓力。

全面降準(zhǔn)對(duì)A股和港股市場(chǎng)的帶動(dòng)有限。上證指數(shù)和恒生指數(shù)上漲略超0.6%，市場(chǎng)仍擔(dān)憂經(jīng)濟(jì)下行。美股標(biāo)普500和納斯達(dá)克再度創(chuàng)出新高。周二摩根大通、高盛和百事將會(huì)發(fā)布二季度業(yè)績(jī)。因去年疫情造成的低基數(shù)，二季度業(yè)績(jī)?cè)鏊賹?chuàng)出歷史新高。

Both CSI 500 and Chinext Index rose to new high. CSI 500 small-cap index (CSI 500) rose 1.47% on Monday above the previous high set on July 14th 2020. Among the weighting stocks in this index 497 stocks have a market cap below RMB 40 billion. Guangzhou Tinci Material has a market cap which is close to RMB 80 billion, the largest market cap in CSI 500. Jiugui Liquor and Ecovacs Robotics have a market cap of a little more than RMB 50 billion. The trailing-twelve-month price-to-earnings ratio (TTW PE) of CSI 500 is 22.6x, which put it at 6.34% percentile since Jan.2007. The valuation gap is obvious within the index, though. Stocks in hot sectors including new energy, semi-conductor and artificial intelligence have TTW PE above 100x. 361 stocks’ TTW PE is between 0-50x. 109 stocks have a TTW PE above 50x. We believe that going forward the index will be driven by those low-valued stocks. The first is that as economy slows down small- to mid-sized companies will perform better than big ones. The second is that group-holding stocks have faced with challenges to attract new money. Money into the stock market would have to seek alternative investment opportunities. CSI 500 is a good place to be as there are many companies with market cap above RMB 5 billion that can deliver good earnings growth this year. Chinext Index also reached new high from June 2015. But different from CSI 500 Chinext Index is valued at TTW PE 63.6x, which put it at 80% percentile since June 2010 when the Index was set up. Among the 100 weighting stocks in the index, 55 have a TTW PE above 50x.This index might face some headwinds going forward given its high-valuation.

Both A-share and HK stocks rose. Shanghai Composite Index and Hang Seng Index rose a little above 0.6%. Market is still concerned about the likely slowdown of economy. The US stocks rose with SP 500 and Nasdaq reaching new high. JP Morgan and Goldman Sachs along with Pepsi will report 2Q2021 earnings on Tuesday. Market is focused on their outlook for the remaining of this year rather than the blockbuster 2Q earnings due to the low base in 2020. 

聲明：本市場(chǎng)點(diǎn)評(píng)由北京楓瑞資產(chǎn)管理有限公司（以下簡(jiǎn)稱“楓瑞資產(chǎn)”）“楓瑞視點(diǎn)”微信公眾號(hào)提供和擁有版權(quán)，授權(quán)上海海獅資產(chǎn)管理有限公司轉(zhuǎn)載。在任何情況下文中信息或所表述的意見(jiàn)不構(gòu)成對(duì)任何人的投資建議，楓瑞資產(chǎn)不對(duì)任何人因使用本文中的內(nèi)容所引發(fā)的損失負(fù)任何責(zé)任。未經(jīng)楓瑞資產(chǎn)書面授權(quán)，本文中的內(nèi)容均不得以任何侵犯楓瑞資產(chǎn)版權(quán)的方式使用和轉(zhuǎn)載。市場(chǎng)有風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，投資需謹(jǐn)慎。

不宜悲觀。在6月份社融數(shù)據(jù)超預(yù)期以及下半年大宗商品價(jià)格可能見(jiàn)頂回落的情況下全面降準(zhǔn)讓市場(chǎng)猜測(cè)經(jīng)濟(jì)比預(yù)期的差。本周四將公布6月份和2季度的經(jīng)濟(jì)數(shù)據(jù)，屆時(shí)將會(huì)對(duì)市場(chǎng)的預(yù)期做出回應(yīng)。我們的判斷是經(jīng)濟(jì)確實(shí)進(jìn)入了下行期，但是下行的幅度比較緩慢，不應(yīng)過(guò)度悲觀。從景氣指標(biāo)官方制造業(yè)采購(gòu)經(jīng)理人指數(shù)看，我們可以看到小企業(yè)該指數(shù)幾乎從2012年以來(lái)就基本處在收縮的狀態(tài)，處在擴(kuò)張區(qū)間的時(shí)間較少。而6月份的小企業(yè)官方制造業(yè)采購(gòu)經(jīng)理人指數(shù)還有所改善，從5月份的48.8%上行到49.1%。但是上半年大宗商品價(jià)格的上漲確實(shí)對(duì)中小企業(yè)而言壓力巨大，另外疫情也影響了很多從事餐飲服務(wù)的中小企業(yè)。從經(jīng)濟(jì)周期看，庫(kù)存周期下行期一般對(duì)應(yīng)著降準(zhǔn)降息?？梢哉f(shuō)這次為應(yīng)對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)潛在下行，政府確實(shí)是做到了未雨綢繆。那當(dāng)前估值割裂的市場(chǎng)接下來(lái)會(huì)如何演繹呢？我們認(rèn)為成長(zhǎng)和價(jià)值股均有機(jī)會(huì)，但是估值低的彈性會(huì)更大。并且如果指數(shù)能上行甚至突破前期高點(diǎn)，一定是低估值價(jià)值股帶領(lǐng)的，而不是高估值的成長(zhǎng)股。我們?nèi)钥春弥芷诠?、低估價(jià)值股。經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇股當(dāng)前預(yù)期過(guò)低，個(gè)別板塊接近2020年3月的低點(diǎn)，有一點(diǎn)催化劑板塊就會(huì)有較好的漲幅。

中美金融周期短暫趨同。美國(guó)目前仍處在大放水時(shí)期，而中國(guó)的貨幣政策也開(kāi)始趨向?qū)捤伞Ｖ忻澜鹑谥芷跁簳r(shí)趨同，對(duì)人民幣的升值壓力減輕。上周五收盤后我國(guó)央行宣布全面降低存款準(zhǔn)備金0.5個(gè)百分點(diǎn)，人民幣匯率應(yīng)聲走軟。從5月底央行開(kāi)始出手抑制人民幣升值以來(lái)，人民幣貶值幅度達(dá)到1.86%。但美國(guó)有可能在今年下半年開(kāi)始收縮流動(dòng)性，而中國(guó)則因?yàn)榻?jīng)濟(jì)下行貨幣政策不太可能過(guò)緊，中美兩國(guó)的金融周期將會(huì)再度背離。受到中美金融周期背離的影響，人民幣也許將會(huì)在下半年見(jiàn)到更大幅度的貶值，但是幅度應(yīng)有限。人民幣過(guò)度貶值將會(huì)導(dǎo)致外資持續(xù)流出，對(duì)我國(guó)股市和債市都不利。我們之前提到過(guò)今年不是2018年，主要原因是中國(guó)的經(jīng)濟(jì)形勢(shì)本身強(qiáng)于2018年，另外貨幣和財(cái)政政策也較2018年更加友好。這意味著中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)整體承受沖擊的能力強(qiáng)于2018年，大可不必?fù)?dān)憂股災(zāi)再度發(fā)生。

No need to be pessimistic. As June aggregate social financing came in above expectation and that commodity prices are expected to peak out in 2H2021, the news that People’s Bank of China (PBOC) cut the reserve ratio for all banks was out of expectation. Market then became concerned that economy might be worse than expected. The June and 2nd quarter economic data will be released on Thursday. We do not expect too much downside risk. Although China’s economy has been on a downward trend it would go down gradually rather than sliding. To cut reserve ratio is actually to help the small- to mid-sized enterprises (SMEs). The official manufacturing Purchasing Manager’s Index for small businesses in June showed that SMEs were on the contraction area. This might be due to the pandemic, which made SMEs in catering sector faced with difficulties to find customers. Moreover, high-flying commodities prices also made them difficult to maintain a profit. Banks can lower the interest cost of SMEs after reserve ratio becomes lower. For stock market both value stocks and growth stocks would perform in an easing monetary environment. Yet if the stock market can go higher, the value stocks would perform better than growth stocks as the latter’s valuation is already over-stretched.

The convergence of monetary policy of China and the US. That PBOC has lowered reserve ratio for all banks means that China’s easing monetary policy. This is in line with the US, which is still in easing monetary policy. RMB has depreciated 1.86% against the US dollar since the end of May. Market expects the Federal Reserve to take back liquidity in 2H2021. This would cause the divergence of monetary policy of China and the US again. As such RMB might depreciate further in 2H2021 but we deem that it would not depreciate too much as what happened in 2018. On the one hand the financial deleveraging has made big progress; on the other hand China’s economy in 2H2021 would be better than in 2018. So again this year would not be a repeat of 2018.

聲明：本市場(chǎng)點(diǎn)評(píng)由北京楓瑞資產(chǎn)管理有限公司（以下簡(jiǎn)稱“楓瑞資產(chǎn)”）“楓瑞視點(diǎn)”微信公眾號(hào)提供和擁有版權(quán)，授權(quán)上海海獅資產(chǎn)管理有限公司轉(zhuǎn)載。在任何情況下文中信息或所表述的意見(jiàn)不構(gòu)成對(duì)任何人的投資建議，楓瑞資產(chǎn)不對(duì)任何人因使用本文中的內(nèi)容所引發(fā)的損失負(fù)任何責(zé)任。未經(jīng)楓瑞資產(chǎn)書面授權(quán)，本文中的內(nèi)容均不得以任何侵犯楓瑞資產(chǎn)版權(quán)的方式使用和轉(zhuǎn)載。市場(chǎng)有風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，投資需謹(jǐn)慎。

通縮了嗎？A股和港股周四大跌，市場(chǎng)對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇有很大的疑慮。政府提出適時(shí)降準(zhǔn)可能表明經(jīng)濟(jì)增速不及預(yù)期。而市場(chǎng)擔(dān)心銀行將會(huì)再次向?qū)嶓w經(jīng)濟(jì)讓利，銀行股大跌。近期中美兩國(guó)的國(guó)債收益率均下行，美國(guó)10年期國(guó)債收益率周四早盤跌破1.25%，一些股票基金經(jīng)理可能會(huì)認(rèn)為經(jīng)濟(jì)有重大利空，相應(yīng)地要減持股票配置。而中國(guó)10年期國(guó)債收益率也在周四跌破了3%達(dá)到2.9975%，這是2020年8月24日以來(lái)10年期國(guó)債收益率首次跌破3%的水平。國(guó)債收益率下行，通常反應(yīng)市場(chǎng)的避險(xiǎn)情緒，側(cè)面反應(yīng)經(jīng)濟(jì)走弱。A股市場(chǎng)從上周開(kāi)始調(diào)整，港股市場(chǎng)過(guò)去8個(gè)交易日中6個(gè)下跌。資金撤離A股和港股市場(chǎng)是因?yàn)槊涝笖?shù)上行，導(dǎo)致資金逃離新興市場(chǎng)。對(duì)港股而言，年初的上漲主要是由經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇預(yù)期推動(dòng)的。經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇股3月份之后在港股表現(xiàn)不及預(yù)期，4月份是因?yàn)槭艿揭咔榈臎_擊，但5月份以來(lái)應(yīng)該是受到經(jīng)濟(jì)下行的擔(dān)憂。而A股只有個(gè)別板塊包括新能源和半導(dǎo)體表現(xiàn)，大部分板塊都處在下跌的走勢(shì)中。因此，無(wú)論A股還是港股其實(shí)都在反應(yīng)經(jīng)濟(jì)下行。我們之前判斷從官方制造業(yè)采購(gòu)經(jīng)理人指數(shù)看，該數(shù)據(jù)在3月份達(dá)到高點(diǎn)之后回落顯示中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)觸頂之后進(jìn)入了庫(kù)存周期下行期。中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)距離衰退應(yīng)還有距離。因此，當(dāng)前仍應(yīng)該配置股票。而美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)仍處在庫(kù)存周期沖頂?shù)碾A段，在美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)即將開(kāi)啟縮減購(gòu)買計(jì)劃的時(shí)機(jī)，美國(guó)國(guó)債收益率出人意料的下行猜測(cè)更多是技術(shù)層面而非基本面因素造成的。因此，通脹仍是當(dāng)前的主要問(wèn)題而不是通縮。也許四季度我們討論通縮會(huì)比較合適。

Is deflation coming? The tumble of both A-share and HK stocks reflects that investors are concerned that China’s economy might be on the downward trend. This seems to be verified by the news that government would lower reserve ratio for banks.Bank stocks dropped sharply as market worried that banks were asked to give out some profit to industries if economy goes down. Recently both China and the US treasury yield fell. In China 10-year treasury yield fell below 3% to 2.9975% on Thursday, the first time since August 24th 2020. The decrease of treasury yield usually means that market is risk-averse and treasury is taken as safe heaven.  The US 10-year treasury yield fell below 1.25% in the early trading hours on Thursday. Portfolio managers would take this as a signal that economy would come down sharply and cut off equity allocation. A-share began to correct last week while HK stocks fell for six sessions over the last 8 trading days. In A-share only a couple of sectors rose including new energy and semi-conductor. Other sectors fell sharply. In HK market sectors associated with economy recovery fell from mid-March due to the resurging pandemic. Yet from May they continued to fall due to the concern that economy might be weakening. Our judgment is that China’s economy has peaked out in March as shown by the official manufacturing Purchasing Manager’s Index. Yet it is still far from recession.Hence equity should still be the top-pick in asset allocation. Inflation is still dominant at this moment. We might need to consider deflation in the 4thquarter this year when economy comes down further.

Global stocks fell with VIX index rising. The initial jobless claim last week in the US was worse than expected. This along with June ISM PurchasingManger’s Index showed that the US economy might be slowing down. Also as Japan Olympics would not allow spectators to witness the matches investors worry that the pandemic might come back again. Financials and industrial stocks in the US fell the most. VIX index rose above 20. 

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