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企業(yè)盈利的增長(zhǎng)來自哪里？企業(yè)盈利的增長(zhǎng)來源于兩個(gè)方面：收入增長(zhǎng)和利潤(rùn)率提升。收入增長(zhǎng)來自于產(chǎn)品價(jià)格提升和銷量增加。去年以來，周期性行業(yè)的股價(jià)上漲就是由產(chǎn)品價(jià)格上漲推動(dòng)的。而銷量通常是行業(yè)增長(zhǎng)加上企業(yè)擴(kuò)大市場(chǎng)份額的結(jié)果。利潤(rùn)率提升來源于毛利率提升和費(fèi)用率下降。而毛利率提升又來源于產(chǎn)品價(jià)格上漲和成本下降；而費(fèi)用率下降則主要是由于企業(yè)經(jīng)營(yíng)管理改善造成的。行業(yè)競(jìng)爭(zhēng)到最后就是看誰(shuí)成本低，成本低的活下來，成本高的被淘汰出局。每個(gè)行業(yè)都有周期，從萌芽期到成長(zhǎng)期、成熟期，最后到達(dá)衰退期。所有的夕陽(yáng)行業(yè)都曾經(jīng)成長(zhǎng)過，所有的朝陽(yáng)行業(yè)未來都會(huì)走向衰退。20年前，百貨行業(yè)是高增長(zhǎng)行業(yè)，百盛百貨享有50-60倍的市盈率，投資人對(duì)它的未來發(fā)展前景保持很高的信心。如今，百貨公司估值在幾倍的市盈率。百貨行業(yè)在過去10年遭遇到電商的重大沖擊。同樣受到?jīng)_擊的還有電器零售行業(yè)，曾經(jīng)火爆一時(shí)的國(guó)美和蘇寧也在電商的沖擊下節(jié)節(jié)敗退。蘇寧近期也因?yàn)楣芾聿簧茖?dǎo)致大股東出局。如何在股票市場(chǎng)抓住處于盈利增速最快時(shí)期的股票？對(duì)于成長(zhǎng)股，從行業(yè)角度找到增速較快的行業(yè)。當(dāng)前，中國(guó)很多行業(yè)都進(jìn)入了成熟或者衰退期，只有為數(shù)不多的細(xì)分行業(yè)還處在成長(zhǎng)階段，比如醫(yī)藥研發(fā)外包制造行業(yè)，就是CRO和CDMO行業(yè)。新能源汽車行業(yè)也處在增速較高的階段。這些行業(yè)的股票估值也都很高，市場(chǎng)給予他們的估值就是市場(chǎng)景氣階段的估值。當(dāng)然，景氣過后，估值也一定會(huì)回落的，而回落的幅度也取決于他們的盈利增速下降的程度。股票市場(chǎng)也有很多細(xì)分行業(yè)曇花一現(xiàn)，高增長(zhǎng)一兩年之后行業(yè)天花板就達(dá)到了。這些行業(yè)很難產(chǎn)生市值很大的公司，在這些行業(yè)也只能賺一時(shí)的錢。賺很多錢的行業(yè)通常都是在食品飲料和醫(yī)藥等行業(yè)，但這些行業(yè)估值也都處在較高水平，未來可能需要很長(zhǎng)時(shí)間消化估值。

A股和美股上漲，港股下跌。美10年期國(guó)債收益率下降到1.296%，美國(guó)大型科技股上漲，能源和銀行股下跌。A股周三反彈，CXO板塊縮量上漲。港股科技股調(diào)整，滴滴出行對(duì)科技板塊的負(fù)面影響仍存。國(guó)務(wù)院提出為支持經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展將結(jié)構(gòu)性降準(zhǔn)。

Where does earnings growth come from? A company grows its earnings from both top-line and bottom-line.Top-line growth comes from product price increase, sales volume expansion and gross margin improvement. For example: the upstream sectors grew their earnings fast in 1H2021 due to product prices increase. Sales volume expansion is usually boostedby sector growth and market share increase. Gross margin improvement is usually associated with technology improvement or cost efficiency. Bottom-line growth is driven by top-line growth and margin improvement. Apart from gross margin improvement, a company can cut off its sales expense, R&D and general administration cost to improve margin, that is to improve its management to a higher standard. Every sector has initial stage, growth stage, develop stage and decline stage. In 2005-06 when department store sector was in growth stage the listed companies such as Parkson Retail Group enjoyed price-to-earnings ratio as high as 50-60x. Now it’s valued at price-to-book ratio of 0.16x and has been losing money for years. With China’s economy slowing down most of the sectors have come into decline stage. Some small sectors could grow fast in a short period of time and soon find the growth ceiling. In these sectors it is hard to grow a big market-cap company. Market is now very optimistic about new energy sector, contract research organization (CRO） and contract developmentand manufacturing organization（CDMO）. Companies in these sectors are valued at high levels. Yet these sectors have ups and downs as well. When the sector growth comes down the listed companies valuation would come down as well.

A-share and the US stocks rose while HK stocks fell. The US 10-year treasury yield fell to 1.296% and mega-tech companies rose. CXO sector in both A-share and HK market rebounded with contracted volume. In HK market tech sector was still under pressure with Didi affair. The State Council said that to support economy it would cut down reserve ratio, which is positive for stock market. 

聲明：本市場(chǎng)點(diǎn)評(píng)由北京楓瑞資產(chǎn)管理有限公司（以下簡(jiǎn)稱“楓瑞資產(chǎn)”）“楓瑞視點(diǎn)”微信公眾號(hào)提供和擁有版權(quán)，授權(quán)上海海獅資產(chǎn)管理有限公司轉(zhuǎn)載。在任何情況下文中信息或所表述的意見不構(gòu)成對(duì)任何人的投資建議，楓瑞資產(chǎn)不對(duì)任何人因使用本文中的內(nèi)容所引發(fā)的損失負(fù)任何責(zé)任。未經(jīng)楓瑞資產(chǎn)書面授權(quán)，本文中的內(nèi)容均不得以任何侵犯楓瑞資產(chǎn)版權(quán)的方式使用和轉(zhuǎn)載。市場(chǎng)有風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，投資需謹(jǐn)慎。

價(jià)值股將再度崛起。周二最堅(jiān)硬的抱團(tuán)板塊CXO大跌。國(guó)家藥監(jiān)局藥審中心日前發(fā)布《以臨床價(jià)值為導(dǎo)向的抗腫瘤藥物臨床研發(fā)指導(dǎo)原則》征求意見稿，市場(chǎng)認(rèn)為該指導(dǎo)原則將會(huì)打擊醫(yī)藥研發(fā)中的偽創(chuàng)新，增加創(chuàng)新藥上市的難度，間接利空為創(chuàng)新藥做研發(fā)和臨床試驗(yàn)的CXO板塊。但不可否認(rèn)的是CXO板塊經(jīng)過持續(xù)兩年多的上漲，很多公司都漲了10倍以上，當(dāng)前板塊估值處在極高的水平。因此，基本面的一點(diǎn)利空就對(duì)股價(jià)構(gòu)成重大利空。抱團(tuán)股中的新能源汽車和半導(dǎo)體行業(yè)仍舊如火如荼，而白酒和醫(yī)藥板塊則接連遭遇重挫。我們認(rèn)為抱團(tuán)股很可能要就此低迷一段時(shí)間：一方面，如果美國(guó)收緊流動(dòng)性，高估值板塊將會(huì)面臨較大壓力；另一方面，抱團(tuán)股二季度業(yè)績(jī)有待驗(yàn)證，如果業(yè)績(jī)不及預(yù)期，則股價(jià)將會(huì)進(jìn)一步調(diào)整。而與之相對(duì)應(yīng)的是，年初以來，價(jià)值股只是在3月份之前有所表現(xiàn)，之后再度低迷。但隨著二季度業(yè)績(jī)來臨，我們認(rèn)為價(jià)值股將會(huì)有較好表現(xiàn)。很多價(jià)值股在2020年遭遇疫情沖擊，業(yè)績(jī)不及預(yù)期。今年盡管疫情仍時(shí)有發(fā)生，但是，總體上要好過2020年同期水平。因此價(jià)值股的業(yè)績(jī)有很大概率超預(yù)期，同時(shí)價(jià)值股的估值仍處在歷史最低水平。因此，一旦業(yè)績(jī)超預(yù)期，股價(jià)就將會(huì)有較好表現(xiàn)。投資人對(duì)成長(zhǎng)股耳熟能詳，而對(duì)價(jià)值股卻有些陌生。其實(shí)，大金融、地產(chǎn)、上游周期等板塊都是價(jià)值股的典型代表。這些板塊中的大部分從新冠危機(jī)以來鮮有表現(xiàn)，個(gè)別板塊近期屢創(chuàng)新低，顯示市場(chǎng)對(duì)他們的預(yù)期極度悲觀。但未來認(rèn)為隨著業(yè)績(jī)提升，這些板塊的估值也將會(huì)有提升，價(jià)值股終將會(huì)有較好表現(xiàn)。

A股和港股均探底回升，美股漲跌不一。美股能源和銀行股下跌，而科技股上漲。10年期國(guó)債收益率下跌至1.36%，為2021年2月以來的最低點(diǎn)。美國(guó)6月供應(yīng)管理協(xié)會(huì)制造業(yè)采購(gòu)經(jīng)理人指數(shù)低于預(yù)期，市場(chǎng)認(rèn)為美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)可能正在接近峰值。A股和港股尾盤在金融股的推動(dòng)下回升。中辦國(guó)辦印發(fā)《關(guān)于依法從嚴(yán)打擊證券違法活動(dòng)的意見》，打擊違法犯罪活動(dòng)，嚴(yán)格執(zhí)行強(qiáng)制退市制度對(duì)股市是重大利好，將會(huì)有助于價(jià)值股的崛起。

The come back of value stocks is on the way. CXO sector fell sharply on Tuesday as Centre for Drug Evaluation of National Medical Products Administration issued a draft for comments of “Guideline Principles of Clinical Research and Development of Anti-oncology Medicines”.This draft could hit fake innovation in medicine R&D and make it hard for innovation drugs to be brought up to the market. Both are negative for CXO sectors. Yet in CXO sectors many stocks are ten baggers and their valuation is at an extreme level. Hence, a piece of negative news hit the sector hard. In group-holding stocks new energy and semi-conductor stocks are still rising well while spirits and medicine stocks have suffered big retreat recently. In the near future these group-holding stocks might perform poorly as the Federal Reserve could take back liquidity soon. Also with the second quarter earnings to be released some of those group-holding stocks’ earnings might disappoint the market. On the contrary, value stocks could come back again. On the one hand they have not performed well since March and valuation is still very low;on the other hand, their earnings in the 2nd quarter could surprise the market to the upside. Value stocks include those in financial, property and upstream cyclical sectors. Some stocks in these sectors have seen their prices fall to the lowest levels in years. Investors are pessimistic about their prospects. Yet this would be the best time to invest in these stocks.

A-share and HK stocks bottomed up while the US stocks were mixed on Tuesday. The June ISM Purchasing Manager’s Index in the US came in lower than expected. Market is concerned that the US economy might be peaking out. Energy and bank stocks fell while tech stocks rose in the US. The General Office of the Central Government Council and the State Council issued “The opinion about cracking down the illegal activities in capital market” on Tuesday. Delisting rules would be executed strictly. This is a big positive for A-share and would help value stocks to come back. 

聲明：本市場(chǎng)點(diǎn)評(píng)由北京楓瑞資產(chǎn)管理有限公司（以下簡(jiǎn)稱“楓瑞資產(chǎn)”）“楓瑞視點(diǎn)”微信公眾號(hào)提供和擁有版權(quán)，授權(quán)上海海獅資產(chǎn)管理有限公司轉(zhuǎn)載。在任何情況下文中信息或所表述的意見不構(gòu)成對(duì)任何人的投資建議，楓瑞資產(chǎn)不對(duì)任何人因使用本文中的內(nèi)容所引發(fā)的損失負(fù)任何責(zé)任。未經(jīng)楓瑞資產(chǎn)書面授權(quán)，本文中的內(nèi)容均不得以任何侵犯楓瑞資產(chǎn)版權(quán)的方式使用和轉(zhuǎn)載。市場(chǎng)有風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，投資需謹(jǐn)慎。

滬深300分化嚴(yán)重。滬深300年初以來下跌2.4%。300只權(quán)重股中133只上漲，167只下跌。其中中遠(yuǎn)?？睾腿A熙生物上漲超過100%，31只股票漲幅在30-70%之間，62只股票的跌幅在20-60%。下跌的股票中有很多是知名的賽道股，如三一重工和恒力液壓，分別下跌23.7%和24%，長(zhǎng)春高新和恒瑞醫(yī)藥分別下跌20.8%和32%，而海天味業(yè)下跌21%。對(duì)賽道股的狂熱追捧今年體現(xiàn)在了醫(yī)美板塊，所以，整體醫(yī)美的漲幅都較大。而創(chuàng)新藥今年因?yàn)榈谖宕螄?guó)家藥品集中采購(gòu)，有些醫(yī)藥公司的品種未能進(jìn)入集采，導(dǎo)致股價(jià)調(diào)整幅度較大。難道這些賽道變化了嗎？其實(shí)并沒有。只是去年市場(chǎng)計(jì)入了行業(yè)的所有利好，所以股價(jià)漲幅較大；而今年各種負(fù)面因素來襲，市場(chǎng)終于看到了行業(yè)的真正面目，股價(jià)開始反應(yīng)負(fù)面因素。即使增速很高的行業(yè)也會(huì)面臨增長(zhǎng)的挑戰(zhàn)，只不過市場(chǎng)有些時(shí)候完全看不到這些負(fù)面因素，有些時(shí)候又將負(fù)面因素計(jì)入股價(jià)中太多。記得A股市場(chǎng)一位知名分析師曾經(jīng)說過：對(duì)市場(chǎng)無需悲觀，也無需樂觀，只需客觀。悲觀和樂觀才是人之常情，這是符合人性的。而客觀對(duì)人的要求是很高的，并不符合人性。另外，客觀的看待股價(jià)，你用什么作為判斷的準(zhǔn)繩呢？很多人都無法給出答案。一些基金經(jīng)理認(rèn)為估值是動(dòng)態(tài)的，現(xiàn)在估值貴了，企業(yè)業(yè)績(jī)?cè)鏊俑撸瑢砭捅阋肆?。但將來企業(yè)業(yè)績(jī)也有可能負(fù)增長(zhǎng)。高估值的股票完全不考慮這種可能性，估值的基礎(chǔ)因而是不牢固的。一旦有一點(diǎn)風(fēng)吹草動(dòng)，股價(jià)就大幅調(diào)整。

A股和美股上漲，港股下跌。因滴滴出行被調(diào)查，其股東騰訊和阿里的股價(jià)均受到影響。港股科技指數(shù)下跌2.28%，接近5月中旬的低點(diǎn)。截止7月5日，港股科技指數(shù)年初以來下跌8.47%，是A股和港股主要指數(shù)中表現(xiàn)最差的。美國(guó)獨(dú)立投資人戴維·羅什認(rèn)為現(xiàn)在投資中國(guó)科技股面臨很大風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，除了中美貿(mào)易戰(zhàn)，還有中國(guó)政府對(duì)互聯(lián)網(wǎng)公司加強(qiáng)監(jiān)管。對(duì)互聯(lián)網(wǎng)企業(yè)的監(jiān)管加強(qiáng)是全球趨勢(shì)。互聯(lián)網(wǎng)企業(yè)壟斷之后對(duì)創(chuàng)新帶來了負(fù)面效應(yīng)，這不符合社會(huì)進(jìn)步的原則。中美兩國(guó)都在采取措施加強(qiáng)監(jiān)管。

Divergence in CS300 Index. Year-to-date (the same below) CS300 Index fell 2.4%. Among the 300 weighting stocks, 133 stocks rose while the remaining 167 stocks fell. COSCO Shipping Holding and Bloomage Biotechnology are the only two stocks that rose above 100%. 31 stocks rose between 30-60% while 62 stocks fell between 20-60%. Many of so-called “good track” stocks fell. For example, Sany Heavy Industry and Jiangsu Hengli Hydraulic fell 23.7% and 24% respectively. Changchun Hi-tech Industry and Hengrui Pharmaceuticals fell 23% and 32%. Haitian Flavoring and Food fell 21%. The good tracks stocks were chased in mania in 2020 as investors took these stocks as those that can be held for ever. However, it turns out that even those fast-growing sectors might be faced with challenges to grow further. Some medicine companies failed to win the bid in the Fifth National Centralizing Drugs Purchase. Good tracks are still there. But that does not mean these good tracks would go smoothly. When investors like these stocks, they do not see the issues in these good tracks. And when they dislike these stocks, they do not see the merits in these good tracks. One famous analyst in A-share ever said that one needs to be objective in the stock market rather than be pessimistic or optimistic. Yet, it is very hard to be objective. On the one hand to be objective one should know how to value a company. Some investors thought that the stocks are expensive now. But with their earnings growth their valuation would become reasonable in the future.Yet, these companies’ earnings can decline. Without considering all aspects of the fundamentals, the high valuation of these good tracks’ stocks are not solid enough to defend any negatives. It is no strange that they fell so much this year. 

A-share and the US stocks rose while HK stocks fell.  Due to that Didi was censored by Chinese government tech stocks in HK market fell sharply. Both China and the US are strengthening their supervision regarding tech companies,which have hampered innovation after they become monopolistic. 

聲明：本市場(chǎng)點(diǎn)評(píng)由北京楓瑞資產(chǎn)管理有限公司（以下簡(jiǎn)稱“楓瑞資產(chǎn)”）“楓瑞視點(diǎn)”微信公眾號(hào)提供和擁有版權(quán)，授權(quán)上海海獅資產(chǎn)管理有限公司轉(zhuǎn)載。在任何情況下文中信息或所表述的意見不構(gòu)成對(duì)任何人的投資建議，楓瑞資產(chǎn)不對(duì)任何人因使用本文中的內(nèi)容所引發(fā)的損失負(fù)任何責(zé)任。未經(jīng)楓瑞資產(chǎn)書面授權(quán)，本文中的內(nèi)容均不得以任何侵犯楓瑞資產(chǎn)版權(quán)的方式使用和轉(zhuǎn)載。市場(chǎng)有風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，投資需謹(jǐn)慎。

對(duì)大跌的反思。上周五A股放量大跌，與央行回收流動(dòng)性有一定關(guān)系。A股申萬28個(gè)行業(yè)中只有兩個(gè)行業(yè)上漲，分別是有色金屬和商業(yè)貿(mào)易，其余26個(gè)行業(yè)下跌。其中跌幅居前的是休閑服務(wù)、醫(yī)藥生物和食品飲料，也即抱團(tuán)股集中的行業(yè)。一方面，這些股票從3月份以來反彈的幅度較高，其中部分個(gè)股漲幅翻倍；另一方面，這些抱團(tuán)股的估值也重新回到了歷史最高水平。對(duì)于炒股票而言，只要公司不斷出利好，股價(jià)就可以上漲，無需看估值。但是，如果基本面變差了，這些股票的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)也很大。特別是一些賽道股，如果賽道的邏輯發(fā)生變化，對(duì)股價(jià)而言就是慢慢熊途。所以，估值的重要性就是它提供了安全邊際。而買入有安全邊際的股票是保護(hù)本金安全的一個(gè)重要方面。A股市場(chǎng)因?yàn)閭€(gè)人投資者占比較高，市場(chǎng)趨勢(shì)交易者眾多，博弈色彩濃重，先跑路就是賺到的意識(shí)是市場(chǎng)很多交易者的心理寫照。一旦群體情緒疊加負(fù)面因素，市場(chǎng)隨即發(fā)生大跌。所以，A股市場(chǎng)如能保持長(zhǎng)期投資的理念，還是可以賺到錢的。因?yàn)椋袌?chǎng)總會(huì)出現(xiàn)個(gè)股低估的機(jī)會(huì)。總之，投資就要做正確的事情。很多人不清楚投資中什么是正確的事情。投資中第一正確的事情是不要追逐泡沫。如何判斷泡沫？問問周圍的人都拿了什么股票。如果都拿著同樣的股票，說明這只或者這類股票已經(jīng)有泡沫了。人多的地方通常就是風(fēng)險(xiǎn)大的地方。

如何看待美國(guó)6月非農(nóng)就業(yè)數(shù)據(jù)超預(yù)期？6月非農(nóng)就業(yè)數(shù)據(jù)看起來很完美。新增就業(yè)85萬人，超市場(chǎng)預(yù)期。但是私營(yíng)部門就業(yè)仍低于預(yù)期，同時(shí)勞動(dòng)參與率也與5月持平。盡管現(xiàn)在有20多個(gè)州已經(jīng)或?qū)⒁K止州政府300美金的失業(yè)補(bǔ)貼，但70%的勞動(dòng)力不會(huì)受到這個(gè)因素的影響。由于勞動(dòng)力供應(yīng)不足，時(shí)薪工資已經(jīng)較一年前上漲了4.5%。市場(chǎng)預(yù)計(jì)美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)在8月份的杰克遜年會(huì)上宣布縮減債券購(gòu)買計(jì)劃，但是制約勞動(dòng)力短缺的因素短時(shí)間并不會(huì)消失。有分析師認(rèn)為可能需要等到11月份才有可能見到勞動(dòng)力市場(chǎng)的真實(shí)情況。不過美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)真的能等那么久嗎？

Reflection on A-share tumble last Friday. One reason possible is that the People’s Bank of China withdrew liquidity. Only 2 out of 28 sectors in A-share rose, which were non-ferrous metal and textile sector. Leisure service, bio-medicine and food and beverage fell the most. These sectors are full of group-holding stocks. Some stock prices in these sectors doubled over the last two months and valuation was over-stretched.For those investors who chase stocks they only care whether companies can grow their earnings at a fast rate and do not care about their valuation. This is especially true in A-share as many investors are trend-followers. The risk is that if trends are going down, then stock prices can fall sharply. So buying stocks with safety margin is very important in investment. By doing so one can protect his or her principle. In investment the most important thing is to do right things and the foremost right thing is not to chase bubbles.

How to look at the non-farm payroll data in June? The US non-farm payroll in June was 850,000, higher than expected. However, private payroll numbers were 662,000, lower than 1 million expected. Moreover, the labor-force participation rate was flat in June despite better hiring than in May. There are 20+ states that are cutting or going to cut the extra US$300 a week in unemployment insurance ahead of the federal program’s Sept. 6 expiration. But 70% of the working population would not be affected by this.  As such, wage inflation has become very severe.In June average hourly earnings went up by 4.5% from a year ago. Over the past three months, overall wages are up an annualized 6% due to labor shortage. The situation of supply constraints in labor market would continue for some time as unemployment benefits, child-care and pandemic, which are factors that prevent people from seeking jobs, would continue into September. Some analysts expect the Federal Reserve to take actions to cut off bond purchasing in Jackson Hole annual meeting.  But others expect the Fed to take actions only when labor market becomes more clear. The earliest that Fed would take any actions would be in November.

聲明：本市場(chǎng)點(diǎn)評(píng)由北京楓瑞資產(chǎn)管理有限公司（以下簡(jiǎn)稱“楓瑞資產(chǎn)”）“楓瑞視點(diǎn)”微信公眾號(hào)提供和擁有版權(quán)，授權(quán)上海海獅資產(chǎn)管理有限公司轉(zhuǎn)載。在任何情況下文中信息或所表述的意見不構(gòu)成對(duì)任何人的投資建議，楓瑞資產(chǎn)不對(duì)任何人因使用本文中的內(nèi)容所引發(fā)的損失負(fù)任何責(zé)任。未經(jīng)楓瑞資產(chǎn)書面授權(quán)，本文中的內(nèi)容均不得以任何侵犯楓瑞資產(chǎn)版權(quán)的方式使用和轉(zhuǎn)載。市場(chǎng)有風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，投資需謹(jǐn)慎。

投資的信仰。時(shí)逢中國(guó)共產(chǎn)黨成立百年，百年風(fēng)華，成就偉業(yè)。光輝的事業(yè)需要堅(jiān)定的信仰，才能不忘初心，放得始終。做好投資也需要信仰。市場(chǎng)波動(dòng)隨時(shí)都有可能發(fā)生，如何應(yīng)對(duì)？首先，要樹立正確的信仰。中國(guó)共產(chǎn)黨成立之時(shí)，中國(guó)有很多黨派，都致力于救中國(guó)。但最后只有中國(guó)共產(chǎn)黨從只有20幾人發(fā)展到現(xiàn)在的9500萬人，因?yàn)橹袊?guó)共產(chǎn)黨信奉的“馬克思主義行”。投資也要樹立正確的信仰。投資中正確的信仰就是要堅(jiān)持價(jià)值投資理念，堅(jiān)持公司的股價(jià)是由盈利驅(qū)動(dòng)的，而不是估值驅(qū)動(dòng)的。其次，要堅(jiān)守信仰。中國(guó)共產(chǎn)黨歷經(jīng)艱難險(xiǎn)阻，創(chuàng)造出人類文明史上的矚目成就，就是堅(jiān)守馬克思主義信念，堅(jiān)持為人民服務(wù)的精神。堅(jiān)守信仰十分不易，要?dú)v經(jīng)殘酷的考驗(yàn)。共產(chǎn)黨員為堅(jiān)守信仰，拋頭顱，灑熱血。投資堅(jiān)守信仰也十分不易，在市場(chǎng)波動(dòng)中投資信仰會(huì)時(shí)時(shí)面臨考驗(yàn)。2020年春節(jié)后新冠疫情導(dǎo)致的A股大跌，我們于2020年2月10日在官方微信公眾號(hào)楓瑞視點(diǎn)上發(fā)表了價(jià)值投資是抵御市場(chǎng)波動(dòng)的利器，對(duì)此進(jìn)行了分析。如“一根陽(yáng)線改變情緒，兩根陽(yáng)線改變觀點(diǎn)，三根陽(yáng)線改變信仰”，投資就陷入追漲殺跌的怪圈中，想賺錢也不太可能。要堅(jiān)持正確的投資理念并堅(jiān)守，才能在市場(chǎng)波動(dòng)中獲得較好的回報(bào)。

 動(dòng)量交易無處不在。A股的創(chuàng)成長(zhǎng)指數(shù)上半年漲幅居于全球之首，該指數(shù)是動(dòng)量交易指數(shù)。其前十大市值成分股靜態(tài)市盈率均在80倍以上，包括寧德時(shí)代、愛爾眼科、億緯鋰能、卓勝微等。Meme 股票是新冠危機(jī)之后發(fā)明出來的一個(gè)新詞語(yǔ)，特指被散戶在網(wǎng)絡(luò)媒體瘋狂評(píng)論的美國(guó)股票。Meme股票包括游戲驛站、AMC、黑莓以及BBBY等基本面較差但股價(jià)卻很高的股票。游戲驛站今年2月份曾經(jīng)暴漲暴跌，并引發(fā)美國(guó)證監(jiān)會(huì)對(duì)交易平臺(tái)和交易保證金的調(diào)查。但該股票近期又大幅上漲。美林證券分析師發(fā)現(xiàn)游戲驛站股票的上漲與社交平臺(tái)中的談?wù)摯螖?shù)緊密相關(guān)。電影《大空頭》的原型邁克·巴里認(rèn)為Meme股票與2000年的互聯(lián)網(wǎng)股票、2008年次貸危機(jī)前的加杠桿購(gòu)房都是一樣的行為。泡沫終將破滅，動(dòng)量交易從來都不會(huì)持久。

What do you believe in in investment? China Communist Party celebrated its 100th birthday. Over the last 100 years it created a great cause, that is, to lead China to become a prosperous country from a poor and weak one. The main reason is that it has insisted on the right belief, which is Marxism. In investment the first thing is to find the right belief, which in our view is value investment. In value investment stock prices are driven by earnings growth rather than valuation improvement. Second, it is to insist on the right belief. China Communist Party experienced numerous setbacks and it is only because that it has been insisted on Marxism that it can accomplish great achievements. It goes the same in investment.Market can rise or fall unexpectedly. With value investment one can deal with these ups and downs in a right way. We published “Value investment is the strong weapon to deal with market ups and downs” in our official wechat “Maple Insights” on Feb. 10th, 2020. All in all, the right investment belief can help investor to earn good return, which is to stick to value investment rather than to speculate.

Momentum trading is all over the place. Chinext Momentum GrowthIndex achieved the best return worldwide in 1H2021. The top ten weighting stocks in this index are valued at trailing-twelve-months price-to-earnings ratio of 80x or above. Meme stocks, which refer to those stocks that individual investors talk about frequently in social platform, rose skyrocket high as well in 1H2021. Analysts from Merrill Lynch found that these meme stocks performed in line with how frequently they were talked about in the social platform. Michael Burry, whose experience can be found in Big Short, said that Meme stocks were the same as internet companies in internet bubbles and leveraged house-buyers in 2008 global financial crises. It would go bust for sure but when that can happen is uncertain. A-share fell while HK stock market closed for Handover Day on July 1st.The US stocks rose on the first trading day of 2H2021.

聲明：本市場(chǎng)點(diǎn)評(píng)由北京楓瑞資產(chǎn)管理有限公司（以下簡(jiǎn)稱“楓瑞資產(chǎn)”）“楓瑞視點(diǎn)”微信公眾號(hào)提供和擁有版權(quán)，授權(quán)上海海獅資產(chǎn)管理有限公司轉(zhuǎn)載。在任何情況下文中信息或所表述的意見不構(gòu)成對(duì)任何人的投資建議，楓瑞資產(chǎn)不對(duì)任何人因使用本文中的內(nèi)容所引發(fā)的損失負(fù)任何責(zé)任。未經(jīng)楓瑞資產(chǎn)書面授權(quán)，本文中的內(nèi)容均不得以任何侵犯楓瑞資產(chǎn)版權(quán)的方式使用和轉(zhuǎn)載。市場(chǎng)有風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，投資需謹(jǐn)慎。

上半年A股和港股表現(xiàn)落后。2021年上半年，在全球16個(gè)主要國(guó)家和地區(qū)的股票市場(chǎng)中，A股的上證指數(shù)和深成指漲幅分別排在倒數(shù)第一和第二名，恒生指數(shù)排名倒數(shù)第四。我們認(rèn)為這主要是因?yàn)槲覈?guó)去年10月份流動(dòng)性現(xiàn)拐點(diǎn)，導(dǎo)致A股估值無法提升。而港股表現(xiàn)落后主要是因?yàn)橐咔閷?duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇股的業(yè)績(jī)構(gòu)成壓力。但無論A股還是港股都不乏結(jié)構(gòu)性行情，A股創(chuàng)業(yè)板中的創(chuàng)成長(zhǎng)指數(shù)漲幅為27%，穩(wěn)居全球之首。在A股28個(gè)行業(yè)中，19個(gè)上漲，9個(gè)下跌。漲幅超過10%的行業(yè)有7個(gè)，分別是電氣設(shè)備、鋼鐵、化工、采掘、綜合、有色金屬和電子，他們的上漲幅度在11.8-23.8%之間。這7個(gè)行業(yè)大部分為周期性行業(yè)。下跌超過10%的行業(yè)有三個(gè)，分別為家用電器、非銀金融和國(guó)防軍工。A股4373只股票中，2007只股票上半年取得正收益，占比46%，其中119只股票收益超過100%。這119只股票中除周期股外，大部分估值都非常高，屬流動(dòng)性推動(dòng)的上漲。港股恒生12個(gè)綜合行業(yè)中，除科技和必需消費(fèi)下跌外，其余10個(gè)上漲，其中能源和醫(yī)療保健行業(yè)漲幅超過20%，綜合、工業(yè)、原材料和非必需消費(fèi)行業(yè)漲幅在10.8-16.7%,而公用事業(yè)、地產(chǎn)建筑、電訊和金融行業(yè)漲幅在2.2-8.6%。無論上證指數(shù)還是恒生指數(shù)，從估值來看都處在全球較低水平。如遭遇全球股市調(diào)整，A股和港股無疑也會(huì)跌幅相對(duì)較小。而且從歷史來看，二者估值也都處在較低水平。即使下半年我國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)和企業(yè)盈利下行，股市相對(duì)調(diào)整幅度應(yīng)該不會(huì)特別大。

周二A股上漲，港股下跌，美股漲跌互現(xiàn)。6月份官方制造業(yè)采購(gòu)經(jīng)理人指數(shù)確認(rèn)經(jīng)濟(jì)在緩慢下行。內(nèi)需走弱，而外需能否持續(xù)彌補(bǔ)內(nèi)需下行的壓力是未來需要關(guān)注的。港股博彩股上漲。據(jù)媒體報(bào)道，港澳有意在7月中旬恢復(fù)有限度通關(guān)，來回兩地?zé)o須檢疫。報(bào)道還指，香港方面希望與澳門通關(guān)后，與內(nèi)地商討通關(guān)工作可以更有利，有望三地通關(guān)。查理·芒格在接受CNBC采訪時(shí)稱贊中國(guó)在應(yīng)對(duì)新冠疫情上采取的嚴(yán)格隔離措施以及對(duì)螞蟻金服IPO叫停的舉措。美股漲跌不一，市場(chǎng)關(guān)注周五發(fā)布的非農(nóng)就業(yè)數(shù)據(jù)。如超預(yù)期，則有可能促使美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)加快收緊貨幣政策的步伐。美元指數(shù)上漲到92.35，觸及一個(gè)月以來的高點(diǎn)。美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)收緊流動(dòng)性會(huì)否造成2013年對(duì)新興市場(chǎng)的重大沖擊，我們之前在這次也許不一樣中對(duì)此做過分析。

Both A-share and HK stocks rose less than most of the major indexes worldwide in 1H2021. Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Composite Index and Hang Seng Index rose 3.4%, 4.8% and 5.9% respectively in 1H2021, ranked as the 16th,15th and 13th among 16 major indexes globally in terms of rise range. The reason behind is that for A-share China took back liquidity from October 2020. While for HK stocks the reason is due to the re-surging of COVID-19,which caused recovery stocks to fall. Yet there were a lot of opportunities in 1H2021. For example, Chinext Momentum Growth Index rose 27% and was the best-performing index globally. In A-share 19 out of 28 sectors rose with cyclical sectors rising the most. And in HK market 10 out of 12 sectors rose with energy and medicine sector rising the most. Shanghai Composite Index and Hang Seng Index are valued at the low levels globally. Hence, even if global stock markets might correct in 2H2021 A-share and HK stocks would not fall too much broadly speaking. Both is also valued low in history, implying that they might have partly priced in economic and earnings slowdown in 2H2021.

A-share rose and HK stocks fell while the US stocks were mixed on Wednesday. China official Purchasing Manager’s Index in June showed that economy is slowing down gradually. Going forward it is worth observing whether the export demand can make up the domestic demand slowdown. HK gaming stocks rallied due to the news that Macau and HK will reopen to each other. Charlie Munger thought of highly what China did in dealing with COVID-19 and the decision to call off Ant Group IPO when he and Warren Buffett were interviewed by CNBC. The US dollar Index rose to one-month high. Market is watching the non-farm payroll in June. If this data is higher than expected, the Federal Reserve might hasten its steps to exit the QE policy. We have analyzed whether this time Fed’s tapering would cause market panic in“This time might be different” published in our official wechat “Maple Insight”on May 16th 2021.

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