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一個(gè)笑話(huà)。巴菲特曾經(jīng)在互聯(lián)網(wǎng)泡沫破滅之前進(jìn)行過(guò)一次公開(kāi)演講，他講了一個(gè)笑話(huà)。一個(gè)石油勘探者死后進(jìn)了天堂，圣彼得對(duì)他說(shuō)：“你符合所有的條件，但這里人以群分，石油勘探者的居住區(qū)已經(jīng)滿(mǎn)了，我沒(méi)有地方提供給你。”商人問(wèn)：“您不介意我說(shuō)五個(gè)字吧”。“可以。”于是商人把手?jǐn)n在嘴邊，大聲說(shuō)：“地獄里有油！”所有的石油勘探者都直往下沖，地方被騰空了。圣彼得說(shuō)好吧，現(xiàn)在這塊地方全都是你的了。商人停了一會(huì)兒，說(shuō)：“哦，不了，我還是跟著他們?nèi)サ鬲z吧，畢竟空穴不來(lái)風(fēng)。”這個(gè)笑話(huà)是巴菲特諷刺在股市里隨波逐流的投資群體。它永不過(guò)時(shí)，因?yàn)樗羁痰亟沂玖巳诵?。首先，股市里很多投資人并不是運(yùn)用自己的判斷力，或者缺乏判斷力，而買(mǎi)入或者賣(mài)出股票。即所謂追漲殺跌。其次，牛市或者熊市都會(huì)比預(yù)期的時(shí)間長(zhǎng)，因?yàn)榕まD(zhuǎn)集體的情緒需要很長(zhǎng)的時(shí)間。最后，對(duì)于真正的價(jià)值投資者，在某些時(shí)候堅(jiān)持自己的投資理念通常會(huì)遭遇較大的挑戰(zhàn)。巴菲特認(rèn)為自己在互聯(lián)網(wǎng)泡沫中的投資成績(jī)是不及格的，但是隨著互聯(lián)網(wǎng)泡沫破裂，他的投資業(yè)績(jī)?cè)俅巫C明股神就是股神。愛(ài)德文·利弗莫爾在《股票大作手回憶錄》一書(shū)的最后寫(xiě)道：沒(méi)有人能夠持續(xù)不斷的超越市場(chǎng)。不管一位交易員如何的富有經(jīng)驗(yàn)，虧錢(qián)的可能性總是存在，因?yàn)橥稒C(jī)不可能100%的安全。任何自然或人為的災(zāi)難都不如內(nèi)幕信息更容易摧毀一個(gè)交易員。無(wú)論在華爾街還是其他任何地方取得成功都沒(méi)有容易走的柏油馬路。所以，無(wú)論投資還是投機(jī)，都要對(duì)市場(chǎng)保持謙卑。在市場(chǎng)面前，任何人都是渺小的。

 周二A股和港股均下跌，美股微漲。港股周二是期指結(jié)算日，市場(chǎng)一般在期指結(jié)算日都波動(dòng)較大。恒生12個(gè)綜合行業(yè)中只有工業(yè)上漲，11個(gè)行業(yè)下跌，能源行業(yè)領(lǐng)跌，因油價(jià)下跌。A股申萬(wàn)28個(gè)行業(yè)中只有電氣設(shè)備、紡織服裝和化工上漲，25個(gè)行業(yè)下跌，國(guó)防軍工、通信和家用電器領(lǐng)跌。美國(guó)知名分析師和投資人擔(dān)心美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)可能落后于通脹而不得不在未來(lái)采取補(bǔ)救措施，而這可能導(dǎo)致經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退。但當(dāng)前的5年和10年期損益平衡通脹率都已經(jīng)拐頭向下，意味著市場(chǎng)并不認(rèn)為通脹是長(zhǎng)期可持續(xù)的。

A joke. Warren Buffett told a joke at a speech before the internet bubble burst. The joke goes like this: An oil explorer went to the heaven after he passed away. St. Peter told him that there was no room for him because so many oil explorer were in heaven. He asked to speak five words and then said:there is oil in hell. All of the oil explorers went to the oil at once. OK. Sothis place is all for you, said St. Peter. Oh, no, I’d better go to the hell aswell. This joke is for the stock market and it reveals human nature deeply. Firstly, a lot of investors can’t judge whether the stocks are a buy or sell on their own. They make their decisions purely on the stock price’s up and downs. Secondly, the bull or the bear market can last much longer than expected as it would be hard to turn the hot market to cool and vice versa. Finally, value investors would be faced with big challenges to stick to their investment principles. Buffett considered his investment return unqualified as a professional investor. Yet he then achieved good return after the internet bubble burst and proved what he did in internet bubble was right. Edwin Lefevre wrote at the end of his famous book “Reminiscences of A Stock Operator” that no man can consistently and continuously beat the stock market. No matter how experienced a trader is the possibility of his making losing plays is always present because speculation cannot be made 100% safe. Inside tips will break a man more quickly than famine or what might be called normal accidents. There is no asphalt boulevard to success in Wall Street or anywhere else. This is so true. So be humble in the market all the time.

Both A-share and HK stocks fell while the US stocks rose slightly. June 29thwas the future settlement day for HK market. Market is usually down on these days. Energy sector fell the most in both A-share and HK market as oil prices went down. There is a lot of argument as to whether inflation is transitory or persistent. But the breakeven treasury yields have turned their corners, signaling that rates market does not expect inflation to last for a long time.  

聲明：本市場(chǎng)點(diǎn)評(píng)由北京楓瑞資產(chǎn)管理有限公司（以下簡(jiǎn)稱(chēng)“楓瑞資產(chǎn)”）“楓瑞視點(diǎn)”微信公眾號(hào)提供和擁有版權(quán)，授權(quán)上海海獅資產(chǎn)管理有限公司轉(zhuǎn)載。在任何情況下文中信息或所表述的意見(jiàn)不構(gòu)成對(duì)任何人的投資建議，楓瑞資產(chǎn)不對(duì)任何人因使用本文中的內(nèi)容所引發(fā)的損失負(fù)任何責(zé)任。未經(jīng)楓瑞資產(chǎn)書(shū)面授權(quán)，本文中的內(nèi)容均不得以任何侵犯楓瑞資產(chǎn)版權(quán)的方式使用和轉(zhuǎn)載。市場(chǎng)有風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，投資需謹(jǐn)慎。

投機(jī)盛行意味著什么？在牛市的后期，投機(jī)盛行，IPO市場(chǎng)是一個(gè)鮮明的體現(xiàn)。根據(jù)彭博數(shù)據(jù)，今年上半年，全球IPO市場(chǎng)共募集金額3500億美金，超過(guò)去年下半年的2820億美金，創(chuàng)出歷史新高。一些熱門(mén)概念股漲幅驚人，如新能源概念股三峽能源兩周前上市，只用了10個(gè)交易日股價(jià)上漲就超過(guò)200%?？焓?021年2月份上市以來(lái)雖然股價(jià)從最高點(diǎn)下跌50%，但據(jù)其發(fā)行價(jià)仍有50%的上漲空間。當(dāng)然，也有一些表現(xiàn)較弱的股票。如百度也是在2021年2月份上市，但當(dāng)前股價(jià)較發(fā)行價(jià)已經(jīng)跌了40%。IPO市場(chǎng)的火爆反應(yīng)的是股票市場(chǎng)的熱度。在牛市中后期，投資人的情緒亢奮，一些傳統(tǒng)的估值方法已經(jīng)無(wú)法衡量熱門(mén)股票。投資人會(huì)找出各種理由支撐股價(jià)的上漲。這與互聯(lián)網(wǎng)泡沫時(shí)期對(duì)互聯(lián)網(wǎng)企業(yè)的估值如出一轍。這是要小心的時(shí)候，而不是要勇敢的時(shí)候。特別是當(dāng)有投資人聲稱(chēng)投資不需要看估值的時(shí)候，就更要小心了。通常這種言論發(fā)出的時(shí)候，熱門(mén)股票見(jiàn)頂也不會(huì)遠(yuǎn)。巴菲特在2000年互聯(lián)網(wǎng)泡沫破滅之前對(duì)投資者說(shuō)：歸根結(jié)底，財(cái)富只能由企業(yè)創(chuàng)造出來(lái)，這是唯一的渠道。投資者作為一個(gè)整體想要變得富有，只有企業(yè)才能讓他們達(dá)到目的。巴菲特認(rèn)為許多互聯(lián)網(wǎng)公司的股票估值實(shí)在是太荒唐可笑了。當(dāng)大量的參與者一起投入一個(gè)總數(shù)持續(xù)增加的游戲，就會(huì)創(chuàng)造出一種表面上的真實(shí)。這樣的情況也可能會(huì)持續(xù)相當(dāng)長(zhǎng)的時(shí)間，但不可能永遠(yuǎn)持續(xù)下去。投機(jī)不可能持續(xù)，價(jià)值投資才可以。

周一A股和港股微跌，美股漲跌不一。疫情對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇股造成壓力，航空股和博彩股均下跌。因豬糧價(jià)比跌破1:5的預(yù)警現(xiàn)，國(guó)家將啟動(dòng)生豬收儲(chǔ)，養(yǎng)殖股大漲。但豬價(jià)并不會(huì)因此而止跌，其真正止跌需產(chǎn)能充分去化，而這不僅僅是散戶(hù)的退出，個(gè)別大型養(yǎng)殖場(chǎng)倒閉可能才是豬價(jià)止跌的信號(hào)。對(duì)于吉利汽車(chē)撤回A股科創(chuàng)板上市申請(qǐng)，美銀證券認(rèn)為主要原因是吉利汽車(chē)決定不收購(gòu)富豪汽車(chē)及其新能源車(chē)品牌Zeekr將可能有自身融資計(jì)劃。美股納斯達(dá)克和標(biāo)普500再創(chuàng)新高，道指在交通和能源股帶動(dòng)下下跌。美國(guó)國(guó)債收益率全線(xiàn)下跌，10年期國(guó)債收益率再次回落到1.48%，利好科技股。

What does it imply when speculation prevails? Speculation prevails when the bull market goes into the late part. According to Bloomberg, in 1H2021 there was a total of US$ 350 billion raised via IPO worldwide, surpassing the record US$282 billion in 2H2020. Some stocks performed quite well after IPO such as Three Gorges Energy, which rose 200% in just 10 trading days after it was listed two weeks ago. Some performed poorly such as Baidu, whose stock price fell 40% from its IPO price when it was listed in Feb.2021. The booming IPO market reflects investors’ sentiment, which is usually quite hot during the late part of a bull market. The traditional valuation methodology does not work in the hot market. Investors would find a lot of excuses to explain the high valuation of a hot sector or stock. It is actually a signal that danger is looming. Warren Buffett told investors that fortune can only be created by listed companies and investors can become rich only via investing in those companies that can create value. But one should look at valuation when he or she invests in the stock market. In the short run the stock market is a voting machine. In the long run it is a weighting machine. The game that all of the people chase a small number of stocks can last for some time but not for all the time. In summary speculation can not prevail forever but value investment can.

Both A-share and HK stocks fell slightly while the US stocks were mixed on Monday. Due to the spread of Delta variant COVID-19 worldwide gaming and airline stocks fell. China government announced that it would begin to purchase swine as reserve as the ratio of corn-to-pork price fell below the warning line. We judge that pork prices would only rebound when some big swine farm goes bankruptcy. Nasdaq and SP 500 reached another record high while DOW fell dragged down by energy and transportation stocks.  The 10-year Treasury yield fell to 1.48% once again and boosted tech stocks. Facebook won the antitrust cases that were brought up by the Federal Trade Commission. Stock rose 4% on Monday. 

聲明：本市場(chǎng)點(diǎn)評(píng)由北京楓瑞資產(chǎn)管理有限公司（以下簡(jiǎn)稱(chēng)“楓瑞資產(chǎn)”）“楓瑞視點(diǎn)”微信公眾號(hào)提供和擁有版權(quán)，授權(quán)上海海獅資產(chǎn)管理有限公司轉(zhuǎn)載。在任何情況下文中信息或所表述的意見(jiàn)不構(gòu)成對(duì)任何人的投資建議，楓瑞資產(chǎn)不對(duì)任何人因使用本文中的內(nèi)容所引發(fā)的損失負(fù)任何責(zé)任。未經(jīng)楓瑞資產(chǎn)書(shū)面授權(quán)，本文中的內(nèi)容均不得以任何侵犯楓瑞資產(chǎn)版權(quán)的方式使用和轉(zhuǎn)載。市場(chǎng)有風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，投資需謹(jǐn)慎。

大金融和地產(chǎn)板塊。金融中的保險(xiǎn)、銀行和券商自新冠疫情發(fā)生以來(lái)分別上漲0.3%、17%和26%，而房地產(chǎn)下跌6%。而漲幅居前的旅游綜合、電源設(shè)備和醫(yī)療服務(wù)分別上漲219%、179%和169%，差距甚大。股價(jià)上漲有上漲的原因，下跌也有下跌的原因。作為傳統(tǒng)行業(yè)，大金融和地產(chǎn)板塊被認(rèn)為發(fā)展前景與新興行業(yè)相比沒(méi)有吸引力。確實(shí)，與新能源車(chē)的每年30%的增速相比，無(wú)論是大金融和地產(chǎn)板塊都無(wú)法實(shí)現(xiàn)如此高的業(yè)績(jī)?cè)鏊?。但估值水平其?shí)也反應(yīng)了市場(chǎng)的預(yù)期。保險(xiǎn)、銀行和券商板塊的靜態(tài)市盈率都處在歷史較低水平，分別為1.6、0.72和1.8倍，分別位于歷史上4.3%、8%和48%的分位。房地產(chǎn)靜態(tài)市凈率0.96倍，位于過(guò)去20年來(lái)0.05%的分位，基本上就是歷史最低值。所有的行業(yè)都曾經(jīng)經(jīng)歷過(guò)市場(chǎng)最悲觀的時(shí)刻以及最樂(lè)觀的時(shí)刻。白酒板塊也一樣。在2013年板塊估值最低時(shí)曾達(dá)到2.6倍，當(dāng)前為11.6倍，處在歷史96.2%的分位。悲觀和樂(lè)觀都反應(yīng)在股價(jià)里面了。二者的區(qū)別是如果前者業(yè)績(jī)有一點(diǎn)超預(yù)期，股價(jià)就會(huì)大幅上漲；而后者業(yè)績(jī)有點(diǎn)低于預(yù)期，股價(jià)就會(huì)大幅下跌。前者較戴維斯雙擊，后者較戴維斯雙殺。白酒也曾在塑化劑事件及限制公款消費(fèi)后業(yè)績(jī)持續(xù)低迷。但2014年隨著業(yè)績(jī)好轉(zhuǎn)，股價(jià)迎來(lái)連續(xù)幾年的上漲。所以，行業(yè)都存在低迷期，大金融和地產(chǎn)會(huì)否一直低迷下去呢？在當(dāng)前較低的估值水平下，值得跟蹤。

上周全球股市多數(shù)上漲。上周全球16個(gè)主要國(guó)家和地區(qū)指數(shù)中14個(gè)上漲，資源國(guó)巴西和澳大利亞下跌。美股漲幅居前，市場(chǎng)從對(duì)美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)縮減債券購(gòu)買(mǎi)規(guī)模的恐慌中緩解。受環(huán)球股市上漲影響，且中國(guó)人民銀行釋放流動(dòng)性，A股和港股均上漲，深成指漲幅僅次于道瓊斯工業(yè)指數(shù)，位居16個(gè)主要指數(shù)漲幅第二名。行業(yè)方面，A股鋼鐵、電氣設(shè)備和電子漲幅居前；港股原材料、醫(yī)療保健和能源漲幅居前。上周北上資金凈流入209.7億人民幣，為一個(gè)月以來(lái)周度資金凈流入最大；南下資金凈流入50.5億人民幣，結(jié)束了連續(xù)兩周的凈流出。上周五發(fā)布的5月份美國(guó)消費(fèi)指數(shù)物價(jià)指數(shù)同比上漲3.4%，與市場(chǎng)預(yù)期一致，為1992年以來(lái)最大幅度上漲。

About the financial sector and property sector. Banking, brokerage and insurance sector along with property sector performed poorly in A-share and HK markets. Take the example of A-share,banking, brokerage and insurance sector rose 26%, 17% and 0.3% respectively from the low in March 2020 to last Friday. Property sector fell 6% during the same period. This compared with leisure service, power supply equipment and medi-care sector that rose 219%, 179% and 169% respectively. Market is pessimistic about the growth prospects of financial and property sector. Yet the valuation has fully reflected this pessimism. The bank, brokerage and insurance sector is valued at 0.72, 1.6 and 1.8x trailing-twelve-month price-to-book (TTW PB). This put them at the percentile of 8%, 48% and 4.3% in history respectively. Property sector is valued at 0.96x TTW PB, which put it at the percentile of 0.05% over the last 20 years. Every sector has ever experienced low times. The liquor sector was valued at 2.6x TTW PB when it suffered plasticizer affair and the sales drop from restrictions on consumption using public funds in 2013. From 2014 the liquor sector’s earnings growth rate improved gradually and the sector’s stock prices rose from then till now. It is valued at 11.6x TTW PB currently and at 96% percentile in history. Going forward the key is whether liquor sector would see its earnings grow at a high speed. If not, its valuation would come down sharply. As for financial and property sector, if their earnings can surprise to the upside, their valuation would increase along with earnings growth. Pay attention to these sectors’ development from now on.

Major indexes rose globally.14 out of 16 global major indexes rose last week with Brazil and Australia stock index falling. The panic from the Federal Reserve to take back liquidity has relieved to some extent. Both A-share and HK market rose last week as the People’s Bank of China released liquidity. Last week the north-bound capital saw net inflow of RMB21 billion, the largest weekly net inflow in a month. South-bound capital saw net inflow of HK $ 5.1 billion, concluding two weeks net outflow in a row. 

聲明：本市場(chǎng)點(diǎn)評(píng)由北京楓瑞資產(chǎn)管理有限公司（以下簡(jiǎn)稱(chēng)“楓瑞資產(chǎn)”）“楓瑞視點(diǎn)”微信公眾號(hào)提供和擁有版權(quán)，授權(quán)上海海獅資產(chǎn)管理有限公司轉(zhuǎn)載。在任何情況下文中信息或所表述的意見(jiàn)不構(gòu)成對(duì)任何人的投資建議，楓瑞資產(chǎn)不對(duì)任何人因使用本文中的內(nèi)容所引發(fā)的損失負(fù)任何責(zé)任。未經(jīng)楓瑞資產(chǎn)書(shū)面授權(quán)，本文中的內(nèi)容均不得以任何侵犯楓瑞資產(chǎn)版權(quán)的方式使用和轉(zhuǎn)載。市場(chǎng)有風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，投資需謹(jǐn)慎。

華爾街沒(méi)有暑假。約翰·加爾布雷斯在《1929年大崩盤(pán)》中描述了1929年前股市過(guò)度繁榮的種種表現(xiàn)，從為在股市低迷時(shí)為投機(jī)者提供杠桿資金的國(guó)民城市銀行董事局主席查爾斯·E·米切爾，到對(duì)鋼鐵股不懂裝懂的家庭婦女，從刊登在《婦女家庭報(bào)》上的文章《大家都能成為富人》，到屢次看空、屢次失敗的《紐約時(shí)報(bào)》，刻畫(huà)了一幅投機(jī)氛圍濃厚的股市眾生相。讓人印象深刻的還有美國(guó)參議院委員會(huì)詰問(wèn)高盛公司的創(chuàng)始人之一薩克斯關(guān)于高盛在牛市期間創(chuàng)建的高盛貿(mào)易公司。該公司從事投資信托業(yè)務(wù)，即為投資人提供杠桿資金參與股市。其IPO價(jià)格為104美元，牛市崩盤(pán)幾年后該公司股價(jià)跌到了1.75 美元。華爾街沒(méi)有暑假，但到了1929年秋天就迎來(lái)了史上最嚴(yán)重的股市暴跌和經(jīng)濟(jì)蕭條。雖然美國(guó)經(jīng)歷過(guò)1929年股市大崩盤(pán)，但并不能阻止1987年黑色星期一和2008年全球金融危機(jī)的發(fā)生。為什么呢？因?yàn)槿诵允窍嗤ǖ?，無(wú)論是生活在20世紀(jì)20年代還是80年代，抑或是21世紀(jì)。人類(lèi)不曾從歷史中吸取任何教訓(xùn)，因?yàn)槲覀儧](méi)辦法杜絕人性。近期，某熱門(mén)餐飲股股價(jià)被腰斬再腰斬，創(chuàng)始人坦誠(chéng)不能夠保證公司未來(lái)業(yè)績(jī)的持續(xù)增長(zhǎng)。該公司去年疫情剛結(jié)束就大干快上，大舉提升開(kāi)店步伐。一年時(shí)間過(guò)去，發(fā)現(xiàn)過(guò)于密集開(kāi)店造成翻臺(tái)率下跌、新開(kāi)門(mén)店爬坡期過(guò)長(zhǎng)，而為了提高利潤(rùn)而對(duì)菜品加價(jià)、降低菜品質(zhì)量等舉措加劇了顧客的流失率。該公司在股價(jià)巔峰時(shí)對(duì)應(yīng)的市凈率接近40倍，而現(xiàn)在16倍的市凈率其實(shí)也不低。不過(guò)回望山巔，還是覺(jué)得40倍的市凈率真是不可思議。這種感覺(jué)就像在1929年股市崩盤(pán)之后的幾年，持有高盛貿(mào)易公司股份的投資人（如果還持有的話(huà)），怎么也無(wú)法想象這個(gè)公司股價(jià)曾經(jīng)高達(dá)100多美金。是的，有的時(shí)候在股市賺不到錢(qián)就是想象力不夠。

周四A股和港股均小幅上漲，美股再創(chuàng)新高。央行三個(gè)月以來(lái)首次加大逆回購(gòu)資金量，以緩解季末資金緊張局面。A股成交量連續(xù)5天超過(guò)萬(wàn)億人民幣。美國(guó)總統(tǒng)拜登與兩黨達(dá)成基建刺激計(jì)劃。雖然刺激規(guī)模為1萬(wàn)億美金，但是加上額外支出有可能達(dá)到2萬(wàn)億美金。美股標(biāo)普500和納斯達(dá)克指數(shù)創(chuàng)出歷史新高。

There is no summer break in Wall Street. John Galbraith, the famous economist, presented a picture of a booming stock market before the big crash in 1929 in “The Great Crash 1929”. He depicted how the big shot and the common people behaved as well as those media that expected either a bull or a bear market. One part is about Goldman Sachs Trading Company, which was listed during the bull time before the big crash with IPO price at US$ 104 per share. Several years after the big crash, the stock was trading at US$1.75. There was no summer break in Wall Street in 1929. Yet the stock market soon saw the fiercest crash in history and the economy entered the most severe depression that ever happened. Although the US stock market experienced the big crash in 1929, it suffered the Black Monday in 1987 and the Great Recession in 2008. The reason behind is that human nature has never changed whether it was in the 1920’s, 1980’s or the 21st century. Recently a famous catering stock listed in HK saw its stock price fall by more than 70% over the last couple of months. The stock price boomed last year due to its big expansion plan all of China. But it turned out that this strategy was wrong as more new stores caused table turnover rate to drop and it took longer time for new stores to become profitable. Moreover, it raised products’ prices and lowered their quality, resulting in the customer loss. The company was valued at price-to-book (PB) ratio of 40x when its stock was at peak levels. Now it was valued at 16x PB, which is still pretty high.The founder of the company recently admitted that he did not expect a sustainable earnings growth in the near future. That’s quite true. A company can grow its earnings at a high speed for some time but not all the time.

Both A-share and HK stocks rose slightly while the US stocks rallied. The People’s Bank of China released liquidity via national debt reverse repurchasing to deal with  the liquidity demand at the end of June. President Biden stroke the infrastructure deal with a bipartisan group of senators. 

聲明：本市場(chǎng)點(diǎn)評(píng)由北京楓瑞資產(chǎn)管理有限公司（以下簡(jiǎn)稱(chēng)“楓瑞資產(chǎn)”）“楓瑞視點(diǎn)”微信公眾號(hào)提供和擁有版權(quán)，授權(quán)上海海獅資產(chǎn)管理有限公司轉(zhuǎn)載。在任何情況下文中信息或所表述的意見(jiàn)不構(gòu)成對(duì)任何人的投資建議，楓瑞資產(chǎn)不對(duì)任何人因使用本文中的內(nèi)容所引發(fā)的損失負(fù)任何責(zé)任。未經(jīng)楓瑞資產(chǎn)書(shū)面授權(quán)，本文中的內(nèi)容均不得以任何侵犯楓瑞資產(chǎn)版權(quán)的方式使用和轉(zhuǎn)載。市場(chǎng)有風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，投資需謹(jǐn)慎。

如何選擇價(jià)值股？有一種觀點(diǎn)認(rèn)為在價(jià)值股里選股比在成長(zhǎng)股里選股更難，因?yàn)閮r(jià)值股覆蓋了好和壞的公司。這種觀點(diǎn)印證了我們?cè)?/font>6月23日發(fā)表在楓瑞視點(diǎn)微信公眾號(hào)里的文章烏雞如何變鳳凰--論價(jià)值陷阱中所指出的，很多價(jià)值股其實(shí)是價(jià)值陷阱，有各種各樣的問(wèn)題使所謂價(jià)值股的估值并不像表面看上去那么便宜。說(shuō)到底，價(jià)值陷阱是毀滅價(jià)值的。要找到創(chuàng)造價(jià)值的股票，最終還是要看公司盈利增長(zhǎng)的速度和發(fā)展前景。因此，價(jià)值股選股有一點(diǎn)跟成長(zhǎng)股選股是一樣的，就是看公司未來(lái)成長(zhǎng)性。但成長(zhǎng)股通常估值較高，而價(jià)值股在危機(jī)或者企業(yè)出問(wèn)題的時(shí)候估值都較低，反應(yīng)投資人對(duì)其未來(lái)發(fā)展的低預(yù)期。此時(shí)如果投資者能夠買(mǎi)入并持有，就可以在未來(lái)乘著公司基本面改善的東風(fēng)而獲得較好收益。但是，價(jià)值股通常都不會(huì)一步到達(dá)估值底部。當(dāng)年，巴菲特買(mǎi)入華盛頓郵報(bào)，就用了三年的時(shí)間，股價(jià)在此期間下降了50%。所以，價(jià)值投資者經(jīng)常買(mǎi)在半山腰而不是絕對(duì)的底部，是因?yàn)楫?dāng)股價(jià)看似低估之后其實(shí)還有很大下跌空間。但當(dāng)最后一個(gè)看空的人賣(mài)出股票后，股價(jià)就開(kāi)始上漲了。所以，價(jià)值股里面選股很重要，買(mǎi)入時(shí)機(jī)也很重要。當(dāng)然，如果你的持有期限也像巴菲特一樣是永遠(yuǎn)，則買(mǎi)入時(shí)機(jī)就不用太計(jì)較了。有的投資人認(rèn)為在成長(zhǎng)股選股很容易，但是就如同我們?cè)?/font>增長(zhǎng)率陷阱中所指出的，投資者對(duì)成長(zhǎng)股的高預(yù)期正式成長(zhǎng)股收益落后于價(jià)值股的主要原因。就如同牛市里投資人往往虧錢(qián)一樣，成長(zhǎng)股也會(huì)誘惑投資人買(mǎi)入，但因其估值太高而導(dǎo)致最后的收益不如人意。所以，挖掘價(jià)值股還是比較安全的投資策略。找一下那些還躺在角落里的價(jià)值股，說(shuō)不定就是未來(lái)的白酒股。