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周三A股上漲，港股微跌。A股申萬(wàn)28個(gè)行業(yè)中18個(gè)上漲，10個(gè)下跌。其中鋼鐵、化工和采掘漲幅居前，而休閑服務(wù)、商業(yè)貿(mào)易和非銀金融跌幅居前。港股12個(gè)綜合行業(yè)中9個(gè)上漲，其中能源、醫(yī)療保健和電訊行業(yè)漲幅居前，而金融、科技和非必需消費(fèi)業(yè)下跌。國(guó)家統(tǒng)計(jì)局發(fā)布的五月份消費(fèi)者價(jià)格指數(shù)同比上漲1.3%，低于預(yù)期；而生產(chǎn)者價(jià)格指數(shù)同比增速9%，為2008年8月以來(lái)最高增速，超出預(yù)期。消費(fèi)者價(jià)格指數(shù)漲幅低于預(yù)期主要是生豬價(jià)格下跌幅度過(guò)大造成的，我們認(rèn)為一輪豬周期還沒(méi)有走完，豬價(jià)同比跌幅應(yīng)至少延續(xù)到3季度末，拖了消費(fèi)者價(jià)格指數(shù)同比漲幅持續(xù)低于預(yù)期。而生產(chǎn)者價(jià)格指數(shù)的上漲主要是因?yàn)樯嫌沃芷诠缮蠞q造成的。下半年生產(chǎn)者價(jià)格指數(shù)很可能持續(xù)保持在高位，利好上游周期股。同時(shí)，名義GDP增速也將抬升。

美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)不可能完成的使命。美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)將在下周議息會(huì)議上討論削減債券購(gòu)買計(jì)劃。這個(gè)討論的過(guò)程將持續(xù)到7月份。目前，至少有5位美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)官員表達(dá)了需要削減債券購(gòu)買的意向。市場(chǎng)預(yù)計(jì)美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)將會(huì)在9-11月份之間宣布削減債券購(gòu)買計(jì)劃，而實(shí)施等到12月或明年1月份。削減債券購(gòu)買計(jì)劃不意味著美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)不購(gòu)買債券，美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)將會(huì)繼續(xù)購(gòu)買債券直到2022年，只不過(guò)購(gòu)買的規(guī)模縮小了，當(dāng)前每月購(gòu)買1200億美金債券。美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)將致力于避免產(chǎn)生2013年的債券縮減恐慌，即時(shí)任美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)主席伯南克暗示將進(jìn)行債券削減后，美國(guó)國(guó)債收益率大幅上揚(yáng)導(dǎo)致市場(chǎng)大幅調(diào)整。美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)認(rèn)為當(dāng)時(shí)之所以市場(chǎng)會(huì)如此反應(yīng)是因?yàn)槭袌?chǎng)預(yù)期美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)削減債券購(gòu)買之后就會(huì)加息，而這一次，美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)將會(huì)明確傳達(dá)削減債券購(gòu)買計(jì)劃的經(jīng)濟(jì)條件和加息的經(jīng)濟(jì)條件是完全不同的，從而達(dá)到抑制國(guó)債收益率上漲的目的。但如果通脹持續(xù)上升，這個(gè)使命可能無(wú)法完成。

美股下跌。美國(guó)總統(tǒng)拜登與共和黨人商討的基建計(jì)劃失敗，受益于基建計(jì)劃的工業(yè)股指數(shù)下跌1%。10年國(guó)債收益率跌到1.5%以下，為五月以來(lái)的首次，受此影響，金融股下跌。市場(chǎng)都在等待今晚發(fā)布的五月份的消費(fèi)者價(jià)格指數(shù)數(shù)據(jù)，據(jù)此判斷美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)何時(shí)收緊QE政策。

On Wednesday A-share rose while HK stocks fell slightly. Consumer Price Index rose 1.3% year-on-year (yoy)in May, lower than expected due to that swine prices dropped more than expected. Producer’s Price Index rose 9% yoy, the highest growth rate since August 2008 and mainly due to the high-flying commodity prices. Cyclical sectors rose the most and high-valued stocks fell in A-share. In HK energy sector rose the most while financials fell the most.

Fed’s mission impossible. The Fed is in the early stages of a campaign to ready markets for reducing its $120 billion in monthly asset purchases to stimulate the economy. While the discussion may take place, an announcement of a decision to actually taper would be several months later, perhaps in late summer or early fall. That announcement would then put the beginning of the asset reduction further out,perhaps by year-end or early next year. Since the Fed will taper its purchases,that is, reduce the amount it buys by some amount each month, that timeline would still see the Fed purchasing billions of dollars of assets well into 2022, though at an increasingly slower pace. Behind the glacial pace of reducing asset purchases is a deliberate attempt to avoid another so-called taper tantrum, the sharp spike in bond yields in 2013 that came after Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke hinted asset purchases could wind down. One view inside the Fed is that the taper tantrum occurred because it failed to adequately separate in the market’s mind the timelines for hiking interest rates and for reducing asset purchases. This time, the Fed is creating a long runway for tapering, making clear that rate increases only come after this process. It also has set a higher standard of economic improvement required for rate increases than it has for asset purchase reductions. But a persisting inflation would break Fed’s plan.

The US stocks fell.  Market is waiting for the US May CPI data to gauge when the Fed will begin to taper. 

聲明：本市場(chǎng)點(diǎn)評(píng)由北京楓瑞資產(chǎn)管理有限公司（以下簡(jiǎn)稱“楓瑞資產(chǎn)”）“楓瑞視點(diǎn)”微信公眾號(hào)提供和擁有版權(quán)，授權(quán)上海海獅資產(chǎn)管理有限公司轉(zhuǎn)載。在任何情況下文中信息或所表述的意見不構(gòu)成對(duì)任何人的投資建議，楓瑞資產(chǎn)不對(duì)任何人因使用本文中的內(nèi)容所引發(fā)的損失負(fù)任何責(zé)任。未經(jīng)楓瑞資產(chǎn)書面授權(quán)，本文中的內(nèi)容均不得以任何侵犯楓瑞資產(chǎn)版權(quán)的方式使用和轉(zhuǎn)載。市場(chǎng)有風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，投資需謹(jǐn)慎。

周二A股和港股均下跌。A股食品飲料板塊下跌4.2%, 為跌幅最大的行業(yè)，其次是有色金屬和化工；而國(guó)防軍工和汽車行業(yè)領(lǐng)漲。近期，A股一些熱門板塊不斷調(diào)整，對(duì)投資情緒有較大打擊。港股12個(gè)綜合行業(yè)3個(gè)上漲，9個(gè)下跌。其中地產(chǎn)建筑、金融和公用事業(yè)上漲，原材料和綜合行業(yè)領(lǐng)跌。北上資金凈流入3億人民幣，南下資金繼續(xù)凈流出,凈流出金額為16.6億港幣。

靠信仰支撐的股價(jià)遲早會(huì)下跌。A股有些板塊就是靠信仰來(lái)支撐的。之所以這么說(shuō)是因?yàn)樵诠乐蹈哌_(dá)幾十倍、上百倍市盈率的時(shí)候還有人認(rèn)為這是價(jià)值投資。這其實(shí)不是對(duì)價(jià)值投資的信仰，而是對(duì)投機(jī)的信仰。這些板塊的調(diào)整也不是意料之外，而是情理之中。稍微有點(diǎn)常識(shí)的人都會(huì)知道，任何公司的盈利都不可能長(zhǎng)期保持高增速，更不用說(shuō)100%的利潤(rùn)增速了。如果能夠這樣，人類早就可以移民火星了。正是因?yàn)槲覀冞€在地球上，人類的認(rèn)知還停留在常識(shí)層面，價(jià)值投資就是長(zhǎng)期投資最好的方法。企業(yè)的估值水平要對(duì)應(yīng)其盈利增速。而這個(gè)盈利增速應(yīng)該是中長(zhǎng)期的盈利增速，而不是一兩年的盈利增速。2008年全球金融危機(jī)以來(lái)，因?yàn)楹暧^經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)乏力，股市對(duì)成長(zhǎng)的稀缺性給予了很高的估值溢價(jià)。當(dāng)然，對(duì)于趨勢(shì)投資者而言，這些都不是重點(diǎn)。重點(diǎn)是短期股價(jià)有沒(méi)有很強(qiáng)的上漲動(dòng)力，這個(gè)動(dòng)力可以來(lái)自各個(gè)方面：政策面、資金面和企業(yè)的短期盈利增速。A股市場(chǎng)趨勢(shì)投資者眾多，大家對(duì)一些板塊的認(rèn)知很容易達(dá)成一致推動(dòng)板塊上漲。趨勢(shì)的終止也往往是由多種因素推動(dòng)的，業(yè)績(jī)不達(dá)預(yù)期、實(shí)控人減持以及資金面收緊等。趨勢(shì)一旦失去了動(dòng)力，股價(jià)下跌也是很凌厲的。年初以來(lái)，我們看到各種熱門股在短時(shí)間內(nèi)被腰斬，就是因?yàn)橼厔?shì)投資者迅速拋棄這類股票造成的。對(duì)投機(jī)的信仰當(dāng)然可以有，不過(guò)，要提防的是股價(jià)上漲容易，下跌更容易。

美股科技股繼續(xù)上漲。因美國(guó)疾控中心放松對(duì)61個(gè)國(guó)家的旅游限制，航空股上漲。美國(guó)4月份的空缺職位數(shù)達(dá)到930萬(wàn)，繼3月之后再度創(chuàng)出2000年以來(lái)的新高。美經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇持續(xù)，關(guān)注下周美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)的議息會(huì)議。

On Tuesday bothA-share rose and HK stocks fell.  Spirits stocks in A-share dropped sharply andwas the worst-performing sector. In HK market raw material and conglomeratessector fell the most while property and financials rose the most. North-bound capitalsaw net outflow of RMB 300 million. South-bound capital saw net outflow of HK$ 1.66billion, the second-day net outflow in a row.

Those stocks supported by pure belief are doomed to fall. In stock markets there are some stocks and sectors whose prices are purely supported by the belief that they would go up. These stocks are doomed to fall sooner or later. It sounds absurd that buying a stock whose price-to-earnings ratio above 100x is based on the principles of value investment. Common sense tells us that a company can grow its earnings at 100% for a couple of years but not for a long time. If a company can grow earnings at 100% per annum for years, the world would change dramatically and human could even live in the Mars. From the 2009 global financial crises, the world economy grew at low rates for years. Investors hence provided high premium to growth stocks as growth becomes scarcity. Another reason is that there are a lot of trend-followers in the stock markets. They only chase those stocks with possible catalysts from policy, sector and fundamentals.The stock prices would rise very fast when investors reach a consensus. But they would fall quickly as well when the catalysts disappear or negative catalysts come up. Year-to-date a lot of hot stocks have witnessed their prices to behalved due to that their earnings are disappointed, policy changes or liquidity crunch. Speculation is a reasonable way to make money in the stock market. Yet it is worth reminding that speculation has its own risks. Value investment has proved to be more resilient.  Picking stocks from common sense is a good way to defend the market turbulence.

The US stocks were mixed.  Tech stocks continued to rise as 10-year treasury yield fell. The US job openings in April reached a new high from 2000.

聲明：本市場(chǎng)點(diǎn)評(píng)由北京楓瑞資產(chǎn)管理有限公司（以下簡(jiǎn)稱“楓瑞資產(chǎn)”）“楓瑞視點(diǎn)”微信公眾號(hào)提供和擁有版權(quán)，授權(quán)上海海獅資產(chǎn)管理有限公司轉(zhuǎn)載。在任何情況下文中信息或所表述的意見不構(gòu)成對(duì)任何人的投資建議，楓瑞資產(chǎn)不對(duì)任何人因使用本文中的內(nèi)容所引發(fā)的損失負(fù)任何責(zé)任。未經(jīng)楓瑞資產(chǎn)書面授權(quán)，本文中的內(nèi)容均不得以任何侵犯楓瑞資產(chǎn)版權(quán)的方式使用和轉(zhuǎn)載。市場(chǎng)有風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，投資需謹(jǐn)慎。

周一A股上漲，港股下跌。A股和港股并未受到上周五美股上漲的影響，開盤下跌。A股因?yàn)楸局苡芯揞~解禁以及周末宣布的部分上市公司大股東減持的消息而承壓，港股則因?yàn)閺V州疫情擴(kuò)散的影響而下跌。北上和南下資金分別凈流出39.7億人民幣和14.5億港幣。5月以美元計(jì)價(jià)的出口金額同比增速為27.9%，低于市場(chǎng)預(yù)期，概因廣州和深圳疫情對(duì)港口處理貨物的能力造成影響。疫情偶發(fā)不斷，對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)的負(fù)面影響也持續(xù)存在，這在一定程度上也擾亂了經(jīng)濟(jì)自身的周期性規(guī)律。未來(lái)經(jīng)濟(jì)的好轉(zhuǎn)需要疫情完全處于控制之下，而這需要疫苗接種率達(dá)到80%的水平，我國(guó)可能年底前才可能做到。

高通脹將擠破資產(chǎn)泡沫。通脹在股票市場(chǎng)已經(jīng)到了讓人談虎色變的程度。但通脹并非一無(wú)是處。在經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇階段，通脹上升其實(shí)反應(yīng)旺盛的需求。一般而言，3%以下的通脹水平是溫和的，可以接受的。就如同美國(guó)財(cái)政部長(zhǎng)耶倫所說(shuō)，過(guò)去10多年來(lái)，美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)一直在與通縮對(duì)抗，通脹的到來(lái)有利于美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)。超過(guò)3%的通脹一般被視為惡性通貨膨脹。惡性通貨膨脹通常會(huì)擾亂正常的經(jīng)濟(jì)運(yùn)行秩序，抑制消費(fèi)，同時(shí)引發(fā)收入分配的不均衡。所以，各國(guó)政府都會(huì)打壓惡性通貨膨脹。美國(guó)4月消費(fèi)者價(jià)格指數(shù)為4.2%，已經(jīng)達(dá)到惡性通貨膨脹的區(qū)間。4月個(gè)人消費(fèi)支出物價(jià)指數(shù)（PCE）同比上漲3.58%，而核心PCE上漲3.06%，連續(xù)4個(gè)月超出市場(chǎng)預(yù)期，也超過(guò)了美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)設(shè)定的2%的通脹目標(biāo)。本周將發(fā)布5月份的通脹數(shù)據(jù)，如超出預(yù)期，對(duì)美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)的寬松貨幣政策將會(huì)構(gòu)成一定程度的壓力。通脹的上漲通常伴隨著利率的上升，而利率上升對(duì)高估值股票會(huì)構(gòu)成壓力。上世紀(jì)70年代的漂亮50泡沫破裂后，其估值從高達(dá)90多倍下跌到10多倍，其中一個(gè)重要因素就是通脹上升導(dǎo)致利率上升，從而刺穿了估值的泡沫。所以，高估值的股票有較大風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。此輪經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇過(guò)程中通脹到底漲到什么水平以及利率能夠上到多高是未知的。但歷史經(jīng)驗(yàn)看，任何泡沫都會(huì)破滅,只是何時(shí)破滅無(wú)法確定。

美股科技股上漲，周期股回落。聯(lián)儲(chǔ)議息會(huì)議前市場(chǎng)謹(jǐn)慎。G7會(huì)議決定全球征收15% 的最低所得稅率打擊大型科技股，因其當(dāng)前繳納稅率低于15%。

On Monday A-share rose while HK stocks fell.  In A-share some high-valued stocks announced that major shareholders will sell stocks. In HK market the pandemic in Guangdong Province caused market concern on economic recovery. North-bound and south-bound capital saw net outflow of RMB 3.97 billion and HK$ 1.45 billion respectively.

The high inflation would cause the asset bubble to burst.  Inflation has become the top concern for investors worldwide. Yet when economy is recovering inflation actually reflects strong demand. And if inflation is below 3% it is acceptable. As Yellen, the Ministry of Finance in the US, said on Monday that inflation is good for the US economy. After all, the Federal Reserve of the US fought with deflation over the last decade in vain. But if inflation is above 4% it is called hyperinflation and is usually considered as vicious. Governments would take measures to fight the hyperinflation as it would cause disorder of economy including pressing demand and unfair income allocation. The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 4.2% year-on-year (yoy) in April into the hyperinflation levels. The Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE), an inflation benchmark that Fed follows, rose 3.58% yoy andcore PCE rose 3.06% yoy in April. Both are higher than the 2% target set by Fed.Next week CPI in May would be released. If that’s higher than market expected,the Fed is under pressure to take back liquidity. High inflation usually drives up interest rate, which would cause stock valuation to fall. A case in point is the Nifty-Fifty in the 1970s, when the hyperinflation caused interest rate to fly and the Nifty-Fifty’s valuation to fall from 90x price-to-earnings ratio （PE） to 10x PE in ten years. We don’t know how high the inflation would rise ultimately as well as the interest rate. But high-valued stocks would come under pressure with the inflation and interest rate going up. Bubbles will burst for sure with the interest rate climbing.  

Tech stocks rose while cyclical sectors fell in the US.  Market is cautious ahead of the Fed meeting next week. 

聲明：本市場(chǎng)點(diǎn)評(píng)由北京楓瑞資產(chǎn)管理有限公司（以下簡(jiǎn)稱“楓瑞資產(chǎn)”）“楓瑞視點(diǎn)”微信公眾號(hào)提供和擁有版權(quán)，授權(quán)上海海獅資產(chǎn)管理有限公司轉(zhuǎn)載。在任何情況下文中信息或所表述的意見不構(gòu)成對(duì)任何人的投資建議，楓瑞資產(chǎn)不對(duì)任何人因使用本文中的內(nèi)容所引發(fā)的損失負(fù)任何責(zé)任。未經(jīng)楓瑞資產(chǎn)書面授權(quán)，本文中的內(nèi)容均不得以任何侵犯楓瑞資產(chǎn)版權(quán)的方式使用和轉(zhuǎn)載。市場(chǎng)有風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，投資需謹(jǐn)慎。

上周（下周）全球主要指數(shù)漲多跌少。資源國(guó)指數(shù)漲幅領(lǐng)先，巴西、俄羅斯和澳大利亞分別上漲3.6%、2.6%和1.7%，位居全球16個(gè)主要國(guó)家和地區(qū)指數(shù)漲幅前三名。只有上證指數(shù)、恒生指數(shù)和日經(jīng)指數(shù)下跌，分別下跌0.2%、0.7%和0.7%。A股和港股年初以來(lái)漲幅落后全球其他主要國(guó)家和地區(qū)指數(shù)，A股主要受到流動(dòng)性回收的影響，而港股主要受到疫情的沖擊，但港股表現(xiàn)總體好于A股。A股申萬(wàn)28個(gè)行業(yè)中17個(gè)上漲，11個(gè)下跌，化工、通信和采掘領(lǐng)漲，而休閑服務(wù)、家用電器和休閑服務(wù)領(lǐng)跌；港股12個(gè)綜合行業(yè)4個(gè)上漲，8個(gè)下跌。其中科技、醫(yī)療保健和能源行業(yè)上漲，而原材料、金融和公用事業(yè)跌幅領(lǐng)先。北上資金凈流入89億人民幣，南下資金凈流入43.7億港幣。北上和南下凈流入金額較前一周均有所減少。

非農(nóng)就業(yè)數(shù)據(jù)再度不及預(yù)期。5月非農(nóng)就業(yè)人數(shù)仍然低于市場(chǎng)預(yù)期，這是在4月份之后連續(xù)第二月低于市場(chǎng)預(yù)期。而且低于預(yù)期的原因也都是一樣的：首先是疫情期間發(fā)放的救濟(jì)金太好，美國(guó)人連工作的動(dòng)力都沒(méi)有了；其次，學(xué)校還沒(méi)開學(xué)，需要大人在家里面看孩子；最后，還有很多人覺(jué)得疫情還沒(méi)控制住，不想冒著風(fēng)險(xiǎn)去工作。這三個(gè)因素可能都需要時(shí)間來(lái)解決。對(duì)于救濟(jì)金過(guò)高的問(wèn)題，美國(guó)目前已經(jīng)有25個(gè)州選擇停止發(fā)放州政府的失業(yè)救濟(jì)金，而聯(lián)邦政府的失業(yè)救濟(jì)金需要等到9月份才能停止發(fā)放。而學(xué)校也需要等到9月份才能開學(xué)，屆時(shí)家長(zhǎng)們才可能出來(lái)找工作。最后，預(yù)計(jì)美國(guó)到秋季可以實(shí)現(xiàn)疫苗接種覆蓋所有成年人，疫情也能夠得到有力控制。5月非農(nóng)就業(yè)數(shù)據(jù)再度低于預(yù)期，有可能會(huì)延遲美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)縮減債券購(gòu)買計(jì)劃的時(shí)機(jī)，因?yàn)槊缆?lián)儲(chǔ)將就業(yè)視為主要的政策目標(biāo)，即使下周公布的消費(fèi)者價(jià)格指數(shù)漲幅超出預(yù)期，也不會(huì)促使其回收流動(dòng)性。5月非農(nóng)就業(yè)數(shù)據(jù)對(duì)美元構(gòu)成壓力，預(yù)計(jì)美元近期將走弱。人民幣可能還會(huì)面臨一定的升值壓力，有利于A股。而美元走弱，有利于港股，具體請(qǐng)參見我們2020年12月發(fā)表在楓瑞視點(diǎn)微信公眾號(hào)上的文章港股明年大概率跑贏A股。

美股上周五上漲。FAANG股票領(lǐng)漲，國(guó)債收益率走低。

Most of the global major indexes rose last week (the same below). Commodity countries including Russia, Brazil and Australia saw their indexes rally. A-share fell while HK stocks rose slightly and both lagged behind other major indexes. North-bound and south-bound capital saw net inflow of RMB 8.9 billion and HK$ 437 million. Both were lower than the net inflow in previous week.

Non-farm payrolls in May came in lower than expected.  The reasons include that enhanced employment benefits have made it harder for employers to fill low-paying jobs, working parents continue to struggle with child care, and some workers are sitting out because of the pandemic concerns. Now 25 states have opted out of enhanced unemployment insurance payments ahead of the federal expiration, which would come in September. In September schools will reopen and parents can go out to look for jobs. Moreover, by September all of the adults in the US should be vaccinated fully, meaning that the pandemic could be under well control. But before that non-farm payrolls might continue to come in short of expectation despite the strong demand of workers. Market believed that Fed would delay its tapering plan due to the lower-than-expected non-farm payrolls data. Despite that Consumer Price Index in May, which would be released this week, might come in higher than expected, Fed would not take back liquidity as it takes full employment as the primary policy target. Because of the lower-than-expected non-farm payrolls the US dollar weakened while 10-year Treasury yield fell. The weakening US dollar is beneficial to both A-share and HK stocks. The RMB might face appreciation pressure again. The weakening US dollar is good for HK stocks as analyzed in “The HK market could outperform A-share in 2021” published in official wechat--Maple Insights in Dec. 2020.

The US stocks rallied last Friday. Big tech companies—FAANG stocks rose the most as treasury yield fell. 

聲明：本市場(chǎng)點(diǎn)評(píng)由北京楓瑞資產(chǎn)管理有限公司（以下簡(jiǎn)稱“楓瑞資產(chǎn)”）“楓瑞視點(diǎn)”微信公眾號(hào)提供和擁有版權(quán)，授權(quán)上海海獅資產(chǎn)管理有限公司轉(zhuǎn)載。在任何情況下文中信息或所表述的意見不構(gòu)成對(duì)任何人的投資建議，楓瑞資產(chǎn)不對(duì)任何人因使用本文中的內(nèi)容所引發(fā)的損失負(fù)任何責(zé)任。未經(jīng)楓瑞資產(chǎn)書面授權(quán)，本文中的內(nèi)容均不得以任何侵犯楓瑞資產(chǎn)版權(quán)的方式使用和轉(zhuǎn)載。市場(chǎng)有風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，投資需謹(jǐn)慎。

周四A股和港股繼續(xù)下跌。A股融資余額連續(xù)兩日超過(guò)1.7萬(wàn)億人民幣（下同），上次融資余額超過(guò)1.7萬(wàn)億是2015年4-6月，即股災(zāi)發(fā)生之前。2015年6月融資余額達(dá)到歷史最高點(diǎn)2.07萬(wàn)億。2015年從年初到4月僅僅幾個(gè)月融資余額就從1萬(wàn)億上漲到1.7萬(wàn)億，而今年年初以來(lái)融資余額就在1.6-1.7萬(wàn)億之間，上漲速度較平穩(wěn)，應(yīng)不會(huì)造成像2015年那樣一旦流動(dòng)性收緊股市大幅調(diào)整的影響。周四A股28個(gè)行業(yè)中11個(gè)上漲，17個(gè)下跌。其中電信、鋼鐵和采掘行業(yè)領(lǐng)漲，而電氣、軍工和家用電器領(lǐng)跌。港股主要指數(shù)下跌均在1個(gè)百分點(diǎn)左右，恒生12個(gè)綜合行業(yè)全線下跌，原材料和科技行業(yè)跌幅居前。北上和南下資金凈流入分別為15.2億人民幣和4.4億港幣。

中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)仍在擴(kuò)張區(qū)間。6月1日公布的5月財(cái)新中國(guó)制造業(yè)采購(gòu)經(jīng)理人指數(shù)（PMI）錄得52，較4月微升0.1個(gè)百分點(diǎn)，為2021年以來(lái)最高。5月財(cái)新中國(guó)通用服務(wù)業(yè)經(jīng)營(yíng)活動(dòng)指數(shù)（服務(wù)業(yè)PMI）錄得55.1，較4月的高點(diǎn)56.3有所下滑，但仍超過(guò)50，服務(wù)行業(yè)已連續(xù)13個(gè)月在擴(kuò)張區(qū)間。支撐5月經(jīng)營(yíng)活動(dòng)擴(kuò)張的因素是銷售持續(xù)增長(zhǎng)。調(diào)查樣本企業(yè)反映，中國(guó)成功遏制疫情，客戶需求得以繼續(xù)復(fù)蘇；同時(shí)，還有企業(yè)提到新產(chǎn)品問(wèn)世促進(jìn)了銷售。財(cái)新PMI主要衡量的是中小企業(yè)以及私營(yíng)企業(yè)的狀況，而中國(guó)官方PMI主要是衡量大型企業(yè)和國(guó)有企業(yè)的狀況。5月份中國(guó)官方制造業(yè)和非制造業(yè)PMI也都在擴(kuò)張區(qū)間。但是無(wú)論是官方還是財(cái)新PMI都顯示外需訂單的回落。未來(lái)外貿(mào)出口能否在內(nèi)需回落的情況下支撐中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)需要觀察。美國(guó)小非農(nóng)就業(yè)數(shù)據(jù)超預(yù)期。美國(guó)自動(dòng)數(shù)據(jù)處理公司自動(dòng)發(fā)布的私營(yíng)部門就業(yè)數(shù)據(jù)被稱為“小非農(nóng)”，一般在每月第一周的周三發(fā)布，而非農(nóng)就業(yè)數(shù)據(jù)在每月第一周的周五發(fā)布。因此，小非農(nóng)就業(yè)數(shù)據(jù)常常被視為對(duì)非農(nóng)就業(yè)數(shù)據(jù)的一個(gè)指引。但事實(shí)上二者有時(shí)候差異巨大。五月小非農(nóng)顯示美國(guó)私營(yíng)部門就業(yè)增加了978,000，較4月份的654,000大幅上漲，為2020年6月以來(lái)的最大增幅。受此消息刺激，美元指數(shù)上漲至90以上，同時(shí)黃金等貴金屬和銅等工業(yè)金屬價(jià)格大幅下挫。美股開盤大跌，但隨后反彈。截止收盤道指和標(biāo)普500小幅下跌，而納指跌幅較大。周五將發(fā)布的非農(nóng)就業(yè)數(shù)據(jù)將會(huì)對(duì)市場(chǎng)走向產(chǎn)生重要影響。

Both A-share and HK stocks continued to fall on Thursday. The financing balance ofA-share in total reached above RMB 1.7 trillion, which caused some concerns among investors. Last time the financing balance above RMB 1.7 trillion was during April to June in 2015, just before the big crash of A-share. However, in 2015 the financing balance rose from RMB 1 trillion to RMB 1.7 trillion in only a few months. This time the financing balance grew gradually year-to-date and we believe it would not cause big turbulence in the market. North-bound and south-bound capital saw net inflow of RMB 1.52 billion and HK$ 440 million.

China economy is still expanding but export demand is weakening. Caixin manufacturing Purchasing Manager’s Index (PMI) was 52, the highest reading year-to-date.Caixin service PMI in May was 55.1, down from 56.3 in April but still above 50,which is the threshold for expansion. Caixin service PMI has remained above 50 for 13 months in a row. The earlier released official manufacturing and service PMI showed that China’s economy is expanding. Yet both official and Caixin PMI revealed that export demand is dwindling. Whether the export demand can make up the slowing domestic demand is the key to China’s economic growth in 2021.

ADP data boosted the USdollar. Automatic Data Processing (ADP) Company released jobs data, showing that the US economy added a total of 978,000 jobs in May. This is the biggest monthly increase since June 2020. The US dollar went strong at this news and gold and metals dropped sharply. Dow and SP 500 fell slightly while Nasdaq fell more than 1%. Market focus is on the non-farm payroll data to be released on Friday. If the data is better than expected Fed would begin to taper very soon. ADP measures the employment situation in private sectors while non-farm payroll measures the employment in both public and private sectors. ADP data is usually taken as a bellweather of non-farm payroll. But sometimes these two sets of data diverge.

聲明：本市場(chǎng)點(diǎn)評(píng)由北京楓瑞資產(chǎn)管理有限公司（以下簡(jiǎn)稱“楓瑞資產(chǎn)”）“楓瑞視點(diǎn)”微信公眾號(hào)提供和擁有版權(quán)，授權(quán)上海海獅資產(chǎn)管理有限公司轉(zhuǎn)載。在任何情況下文中信息或所表述的意見不構(gòu)成對(duì)任何人的投資建議，楓瑞資產(chǎn)不對(duì)任何人因使用本文中的內(nèi)容所引發(fā)的損失負(fù)任何責(zé)任。未經(jīng)楓瑞資產(chǎn)書面授權(quán)，本文中的內(nèi)容均不得以任何侵犯楓瑞資產(chǎn)版權(quán)的方式使用和轉(zhuǎn)載。市場(chǎng)有風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，投資需謹(jǐn)慎。