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周二A股和港股均探底回升。A股申萬28個(gè)行業(yè)中7個(gè)上漲，21個(gè)下跌,漲幅居前的為醫(yī)藥生物、休閑服務(wù)和紡織服裝。恒生12個(gè)綜合行業(yè)中7個(gè)上漲，5個(gè)下跌，原材料行業(yè)繼續(xù)領(lǐng)漲，公用事業(yè)、能源和金融行業(yè)跌幅居前。北上和南下資金分別凈流入35億人民幣和8.3億港幣。貴州茅臺(tái)一季度凈利潤同比上升6.6%，為2015年以來的最低增速。

美團(tuán)將被處罰但影響不大。摩根·斯坦利認(rèn)為市場(chǎng)監(jiān)管總局對(duì)美團(tuán)的調(diào)查并不令市場(chǎng)感到意外，美團(tuán)之前已經(jīng)完成了募資，罰款風(fēng)險(xiǎn)應(yīng)是可控的。野村認(rèn)為美團(tuán)可能會(huì)因違反反壟斷法被國家市監(jiān)局定罪。按壟斷法規(guī)定，罰款額為上年度綜合營業(yè)額的1%-10%。如罰款是按上一年銷售額的4%(如阿里巴巴的情況)，美團(tuán)將可能被罰款46億元人民幣(約7.06億美元)，相當(dāng)于美團(tuán)凈現(xiàn)金余額180億美元的約4%，包括最近發(fā)行股票和可換股債券籌集的100億美元，預(yù)計(jì)潛在罰款對(duì)美團(tuán)的業(yè)務(wù)影響有限。該行維持美團(tuán)買入評(píng)級(jí)，目標(biāo)價(jià)404港元。美團(tuán)股價(jià)周二早盤下跌，之后轉(zhuǎn)漲。

買入周期股并不晚。過去一個(gè)月，周期股總體跑輸市場(chǎng)。自去年9月份直到四月中旬，美股的價(jià)值股跑贏成長股20個(gè)百分點(diǎn)。但根據(jù)美國銀行，在經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇的早期階段，價(jià)值股通常跑贏成長股60個(gè)百分點(diǎn)。通脹和對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)敏感的股票的表現(xiàn)通常緊密相關(guān)。對(duì)未來五年的通脹預(yù)期已經(jīng)從去年9月份的1.5%上升到2.4%。成長和價(jià)值股之間的估值差異也反應(yīng)股市并沒有反應(yīng)經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇。成長股對(duì)價(jià)值股的估值差與危機(jī)剛開始的時(shí)候是一樣的，比2008年金融危機(jī)以來的中位數(shù)水平要高。銀行是對(duì)利率非常敏感的周期股。當(dāng)經(jīng)濟(jì)好轉(zhuǎn)時(shí)，對(duì)貸款的需求會(huì)增加。同時(shí)隨著經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇，利率曲線將更為陡峭，銀行的凈息差會(huì)提升。盡管美國國債收益率上升，但銀行的表現(xiàn)并沒有完全反應(yīng)經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇的樂觀前景。對(duì)上游周期股而言，銅鋁等金屬價(jià)格從去年3月份的低點(diǎn)已經(jīng)或接近翻倍。金屬類上市公司都有較大的經(jīng)營杠桿，因此，他們的凈利潤增速應(yīng)遠(yuǎn)大于收入增速，后者受金屬價(jià)格的驅(qū)動(dòng)。這類周期股應(yīng)該還有上漲空間。

美股漲跌不一。2月份房屋價(jià)格同比上漲12%，15年來最大漲幅。

Major indexes in both A-share and HK market rose slightly on Tuesday. Trading volume was lower than on Monday in both markets. 7 out of 28 sectors rose with bio-medicine, leisure service and textile sector rising the most. In HK market 7 out of 12 sectors rose with raw material sector still rising the most. Utilities, energy and financial sector fell the most. North-bound and south-bound capital saw net inflow of RMB3.5billion and HK$ 830 million respectively. Morgan Stanley (MS) believed that it was not out of expectation that Meituan was investigated by the State Administration for Market Regulation for monopolistic business behavior. MS thought the likely punishment to Meituan would not have big impact on its business. Nomura estimated that Meituan might be fined RMB 4.6 billion, 4% of its revenue (same as what Alibaba has been fined). Meituan has raised RMB 10 billion recently via stock and bond issuance and its net cash balance is RMB18 billion.  

It’s not late to buy cyclicals. Cyclicals lagged behind the overall market in April. Cyclicals outperformed growth stocks by 20 percentage point from last September till mid-April. But they usually outperform growth stocks by 60 percentage point in early stage of economic recovery, according to Bank of America. Valuation gap between growth and value stocks is the same as the pandemic began and higher than the median levels from 2008 global financial crises till now. Banks are sensitive to economic recovery and interest rate. When economy recovers demand for loans increases. Meanwhile, banks’ net margin will expand as interest rate will rise with economy going up. Although the US treasury yields have risen two times from their lows in last August, banks’ stock performance is lagging behind. So do the metal stocks. Metal listed companies have big operating leverage, which will drive their earnings to grow much higher than metal prices.

The US stocks mixed. Home prices in February rose 12% year-on-year, the biggest gain in 15 years.

聲明：本市場(chǎng)點(diǎn)評(píng)由北京楓瑞資產(chǎn)管理有限公司（以下簡稱“楓瑞資產(chǎn)”）“楓瑞視點(diǎn)”微信公眾號(hào)提供和擁有版權(quán)，授權(quán)上海海獅資產(chǎn)管理有限公司轉(zhuǎn)載。在任何情況下文中信息或所表述的意見不構(gòu)成對(duì)任何人的投資建議，楓瑞資產(chǎn)不對(duì)任何人因使用本文中的內(nèi)容所引發(fā)的損失負(fù)任何責(zé)任。未經(jīng)楓瑞資產(chǎn)書面授權(quán)，本文中的內(nèi)容均不得以任何侵犯楓瑞資產(chǎn)版權(quán)的方式使用和轉(zhuǎn)載。市場(chǎng)有風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，投資需謹(jǐn)慎。

A股周一下午跳水，港股小幅下跌。A股成交量創(chuàng)下3月16日以來的新高達(dá)到9000億人民幣以上。申萬28個(gè)行業(yè)中只有3個(gè)上漲，分別是采掘、有色金屬和化工。恒生12個(gè)綜合行業(yè)中只有原材料行業(yè)上漲，其余11個(gè)行業(yè)均下跌，其中必需消費(fèi)、地產(chǎn)建筑和公用事業(yè)跌幅領(lǐng)先。北上和南下資金分別凈流入32億人民幣和19.8億港幣。周一收盤后，市場(chǎng)監(jiān)管總局發(fā)消息稱將對(duì)美團(tuán)涉嫌“二選一”壟斷行為進(jìn)行調(diào)查。無論是中國還是美國的網(wǎng)絡(luò)股今年都面臨監(jiān)管壓力,從而影響他們的股價(jià)表現(xiàn)。

抱團(tuán)股為什么又跌了？A股周一下午突發(fā)跳水，抱團(tuán)股領(lǐng)跌。抱團(tuán)股面臨雙重壓力，一是估值過高壓力。盡管春節(jié)后抱團(tuán)股股價(jià)有一些調(diào)整，但其估值仍處在歷史較高水平。這波拉估值行情始于2019年初，兩年時(shí)間資金將抱團(tuán)股估值推高到了歷史較高水平。以滬深300為例，其調(diào)整前最高點(diǎn)所對(duì)應(yīng)的靜態(tài)市盈率為17.4倍，僅次于2015年股災(zāi)發(fā)生前的市場(chǎng)最高點(diǎn)所對(duì)應(yīng)的靜態(tài)市盈率18.7倍。春節(jié)后至今，抱團(tuán)股股價(jià)調(diào)整了2個(gè)月。估值雖然有所下降，目前為14.9倍，但仍處于近10年來90%的分位。羅馬不是一日建成的，估值的抬升非一日之功，消化估值的過程也將會(huì)持續(xù)比較長的時(shí)間。以時(shí)間換空間對(duì)整體股市來說是一件好事情。如果以快速殺跌的方式調(diào)整估值，則對(duì)股市的沖擊較大。二是一旦抱團(tuán)股有一定幅度的上漲，基金面臨的贖回壓力就會(huì)加大。這主要是因?yàn)檫^去兩年無論公募還是私募基金都主要投資于抱團(tuán)股。為應(yīng)對(duì)贖回壓力，在其他股票都賣出之后，只能賣抱團(tuán)股。因此，未來抱團(tuán)股的股價(jià)如果不是下跌則至多是震蕩。從剛剛發(fā)布完畢的基金一季報(bào)可以看出，抱團(tuán)股已經(jīng)有瓦解跡象?；鸺觽}順周期板塊，對(duì)抱團(tuán)股的持倉水平總體回落。年初至今A股紅利指數(shù)的漲幅為7%，遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)領(lǐng)先其他風(fēng)格指數(shù)，也表明資金在向價(jià)值股轉(zhuǎn)移。上述表明，抱團(tuán)股所代表的大盤成長未來上漲空間不大，每次上漲都應(yīng)該是減倉的時(shí)機(jī)。

美股漲跌不一。標(biāo)普500中1/3的公司發(fā)布了2021年1季度業(yè)績，其中84%的公司盈利正增長。標(biāo)普和納斯達(dá)克指數(shù)創(chuàng)出歷史新高，道指回落。拜登本周將會(huì)宣布一系列對(duì)富人征稅的政策，包括提高資本利得稅至幾乎原來的兩倍。白宮方面認(rèn)為資本利得稅只會(huì)對(duì)0.3%的人口征收，因此影響不大。

A-share tumbled and HK stocks fell slightly on Monday . A-share dived on Monday afternoon. Only mining, non-ferrous metal and petrochemical sector rose out of 28 sectors rose in A-share. In HK market only raw material sector rose out of 12 sectors in HK. And consumer stable, property and utilities sector fell the most.North-bound and south-bound capital saw net inflow of RMB3.2 billion and HK$1.98 billion respectively. The State Administration for Market Regulation announced that it would investigate Meituan for its monopolistic business behavior of “Choosing one from two”. This year both Chinese and the US mega-tech firms are faced with supervision measures, which would dent their stocks rally.

Why group-holding stocks fell again? The dive of A-share on Monday afternoon was mainly due to the sell-off of group-holding stocks, which are faced with two challenges. Firstly, their valuation is still at hefty levels.Take the example of CS300, its trailing-twelve-month price-to-earnings ratio(TTW PE) was 17.4x, which was only second to the highest level-18.7x before market crash in 2015 over the last 10 years. Group-holding stocks began correction after the Chinese New Year. After two months’ correction CS300 is valued at 14.9x, which puts it at 90% percentile over the last 10 years. Secondly,redemption pressure rose with the group-holding stocks rising. As so many mutual funds have put their money in group-holding stocks, they have to sell them when faced with redemption pressure. Hence, group-holding stocks’ prices would at best bounce up and down if not go down sharply. 1Q2021 reports of mutual funds showed that they are moving away from group-holding stocks. They increased exposure to cyclical stocks while cut exposure to group-holding stocks. In summary, any bounce of group-holding stocks are the chances of getting out of them.

The US stocks mixed. Dow fell while SP 500 and Nasdaq hit record levels.

聲明：本市場(chǎng)點(diǎn)評(píng)由北京楓瑞資產(chǎn)管理有限公司（以下簡稱“楓瑞資產(chǎn)”）“楓瑞視點(diǎn)”微信公眾號(hào)提供和擁有版權(quán)，授權(quán)上海海獅資產(chǎn)管理有限公司轉(zhuǎn)載。在任何情況下文中信息或所表述的意見不構(gòu)成對(duì)任何人的投資建議，楓瑞資產(chǎn)不對(duì)任何人因使用本文中的內(nèi)容所引發(fā)的損失負(fù)任何責(zé)任。未經(jīng)楓瑞資產(chǎn)書面授權(quán)，本文中的內(nèi)容均不得以任何侵犯楓瑞資產(chǎn)版權(quán)的方式使用和轉(zhuǎn)載。市場(chǎng)有風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，投資需謹(jǐn)慎。

上周五A股和港股均上漲。上周（下同）A股28個(gè)行業(yè)中19個(gè)上漲，9個(gè)下跌。漲幅居前的是電氣設(shè)備、醫(yī)藥生物和食品飲料，跌幅居前的是商業(yè)貿(mào)易、紡織服裝和房地產(chǎn)。恒生12個(gè)綜合行業(yè)中8個(gè)上漲，下跌的行業(yè)為能源、公用事業(yè)、地產(chǎn)建筑和金融，醫(yī)療保健、原材料和工業(yè)領(lǐng)漲。印度疫情惡化引發(fā)A股和港股的醫(yī)療板塊崛起。北上資金凈流入210.2億人民幣，南下資金凈流入240億港幣。

三位數(shù)的市盈率和100倍的收益。2000年互聯(lián)網(wǎng)泡沫破滅之前，美國股市上一些大市值公司的市盈率都有三位數(shù)。這些公司包括思科、美國在線、甲骨文、北電網(wǎng)絡(luò)、太陽微系統(tǒng)公司、易安信、捷迪訊光電、高通和雅虎。這九家公司中美國在線、北電網(wǎng)絡(luò)、太陽微系統(tǒng)公司隨著互聯(lián)網(wǎng)泡沫破滅而消失，雅虎在2016年7月黯然退市。其余5家公司的股價(jià)在2000-2002年經(jīng)歷了大幅調(diào)整，個(gè)別股票的股價(jià)回落99%。但如果持有至今，也都有不錯(cuò)的收益。A股一位投資人2008年投資了某醫(yī)藥股，持有13年收益達(dá)到100倍。該消息引發(fā)A股市場(chǎng)對(duì)價(jià)值投資的討論。該股票在2008年時(shí)的市盈率為50倍左右，目前的市盈率也是在這一水平。因此，13年來股價(jià)的上漲基本是由盈利所驅(qū)動(dòng)，生動(dòng)詮釋了價(jià)值投資。但為什么2000年互聯(lián)網(wǎng)泡沫破滅后互聯(lián)網(wǎng)公司股價(jià)大跌，讓投資人損失慘重，而A股這家醫(yī)藥公司市盈率不算低卻能夠給投資人帶來豐厚的回報(bào)呢？原因在于盈利的可持續(xù)性。互聯(lián)網(wǎng)泡沫破滅在于商業(yè)模式出現(xiàn)了問題，只靠廣告支撐收入的商業(yè)模式在經(jīng)濟(jì)下行期遭遇了很大挑戰(zhàn)。當(dāng)然，泡沫破滅還有羊群效應(yīng)起作用，體現(xiàn)在投資人對(duì)權(quán)威的盲從以及無知和偏見，過于相信新科技帶來的商業(yè)模式，認(rèn)為互聯(lián)網(wǎng)企業(yè)的現(xiàn)金流問題可以在短期內(nèi)解決，相信市場(chǎng)不會(huì)崩潰。這種愚蠢和無知主導(dǎo)的偏見一旦被證偽后，最終必定是一地雞毛。而在遇到好的股票之后，能夠持有13年同樣也不是一件容易的事情。因此，做好價(jià)值投資需要獨(dú)立判斷和堅(jiān)守自己的投資理念。就像芒格所說，投資并不簡單。堅(jiān)持價(jià)值投資知易行難。

美股上漲。印度新冠病例數(shù)上升引發(fā)市場(chǎng)關(guān)注。但因?yàn)橛《仍谌蛸Q(mào)易中所占比重較小，只要其病毒沒有特別的傳染性，對(duì)全球經(jīng)濟(jì)的影響就不大。全球經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇的不平衡也可以緩解下半年的通脹壓力以及量化寬松退出的壓力。

Both A-share and HK stocks rose on Friday. Last week (the same below) 19 out of 28 sectors rose in A-share with electric equipment,bio-medicine and food and beverage rising the most. 8 out of 12 sectors in HK rose with healthcare, raw material and tech sector rising the most. Energy, financials,utilities and property sector fell. North-bound and south-bound capital saw net inflow of RMB 21.02 billion and  HK$ 24 billion respectively.  The sharp rise of COVID-19 new cases in India promoted healthcare sector in both A-share and HK market to rise.

Three digit price-to-earnings ratio (PE) and 100x return. In 2000 there were 9 big-cap companies with three-digit PE in the US stock market. They were Cisco, Oracle, America Online,Nortel Networks, Sun Microsystems, EMC, JDC Uniphase, Qualcomm and Yahoo. By the time the network bubble went off, America Online, Nortel Networks and Sun Microsystems went bankruptcy. Yahoo delisted in 2016. The remaining five companies suffered big retreat of stock prices during 2000 and 2002. Some of them saw their stock prices cut by 99%. But if investors hold them till now, they get big returns. In A-share an investor bought a medicine company’s stock in 2008. She forgot to sell it until recently and only found that the stock rose 100x. This stock was valued at 50x plus PE in 2008 when the investor bought it and remains at this level now. Hence, the stock price was pushed up mainly by earnings growth. This is a case in point for value investment. That the internet bubble burst was due to faulty business model. In 2000 internet companies’ income mainly come from advertisement, which subjected to economic cycle. Moreover, ignorance and to blindly follow so-called professionals also helped build the bubble. Investment requires independent judgment and to stick to value investment principles. But it is easier said than done.

The US stocks rose. Investors were optimistic as vaccination rollout went on well.

聲明：本市場(chǎng)點(diǎn)評(píng)由北京楓瑞資產(chǎn)管理有限公司（以下簡稱“楓瑞資產(chǎn)”）“楓瑞視點(diǎn)”微信公眾號(hào)提供和擁有版權(quán)，授權(quán)上海海獅資產(chǎn)管理有限公司轉(zhuǎn)載。在任何情況下文中信息或所表述的意見不構(gòu)成對(duì)任何人的投資建議，楓瑞資產(chǎn)不對(duì)任何人因使用本文中的內(nèi)容所引發(fā)的損失負(fù)任何責(zé)任。未經(jīng)楓瑞資產(chǎn)書面授權(quán)，本文中的內(nèi)容均不得以任何侵犯楓瑞資產(chǎn)版權(quán)的方式使用和轉(zhuǎn)載。市場(chǎng)有風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，投資需謹(jǐn)慎。

周四A股下跌，港股上漲。隔夜美股大漲對(duì)A股并沒有任何帶動(dòng)，A股全天振蕩下行，小幅收跌。成交金額較前一交易日略所降低。申萬28個(gè)行業(yè)中17個(gè)上漲，漲幅居前的為鋼鐵、通信和電子，跌幅居前的為銀行、休閑服務(wù)和商業(yè)貿(mào)易。港股前一交易日大跌后，周四小幅上漲，成交量與前一交易日持平。恒生12個(gè)綜合行業(yè)中9個(gè)上漲，能源、金融和公用事業(yè)下跌。而醫(yī)療保健、原材料和科技行業(yè)領(lǐng)漲。北上資金凈流出10.6億人民幣，南下資金凈流入58.9億港幣，較前一交易日增加40%。

增長率陷阱。增長率陷阱是杰里米·西格爾在其著作《投資者的未來》中提出的概念。所謂增長率陷阱就是投資者對(duì)成長型股票支付過高的價(jià)格，導(dǎo)致投資收益下降。在增長率陷阱中，投資者追求激動(dòng)人心的新產(chǎn)品、新技術(shù)，購買熱門股票和投資于快速發(fā)展的國家。但事實(shí)證明，新興的產(chǎn)業(yè)和公司不僅不能為投資者帶來豐厚的回報(bào)，而且他們的收益也比不上那些傳統(tǒng)企業(yè)。根據(jù)西格爾的研究，對(duì)于長期投資者而言，股利至關(guān)重要。股利再投資是長期股票投資獲利的關(guān)鍵因素。最近媒體報(bào)道一個(gè)長達(dá)85年的被動(dòng)投資基金獲得了5000多倍收益，年化收益為10.58%，其中一個(gè)關(guān)鍵因素就是股利再投資。成長型股票都是低股利甚至不發(fā)放股利的公司。其次，股票的長期收益并不是由實(shí)際利潤增長情況所決定的，而是取決于實(shí)際的利潤增長與投資者預(yù)期的利潤增長之間的差異。這就是通常提到的預(yù)期差。對(duì)高成長股票，預(yù)期往往較高，一旦預(yù)期落空，股價(jià)就會(huì)在戴維斯雙殺下大幅回落。巴菲特曾用一句話回應(yīng)追逐熱門股票：去火星探險(xiǎn)是激動(dòng)人心的，不過讓別人去吧。

歐央行對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)的支持將會(huì)延續(xù)到明年。歐元區(qū)到夏季將會(huì)有70%的人口接種新冠疫苗，1季度經(jīng)濟(jì)環(huán)比4季度下跌，但預(yù)計(jì)2季度經(jīng)濟(jì)將會(huì)強(qiáng)勁增長，通脹也會(huì)上升。歐央行預(yù)計(jì)2021年的通脹水平為1.5%，低于2%的政策目標(biāo)。歐洲央行內(nèi)部有聲音提出削減債券購買，期望3季度歐央行削減債券購買規(guī)模，但也有分析師認(rèn)為直到2022年歐央行才有可能開始削減債券購買計(jì)劃。

美股下跌。經(jīng)濟(jì)數(shù)據(jù)好于預(yù)期，但資本利得稅將翻倍沖擊股市。

A-share fellslightly and HK stocks rose on Thursday. 17 out of 28 sectors rosein A-share with iron and steel, telecom and electronic leading the market. Bankand leisure service fell. 9 out of 12 sectors in HK rose with healthcare, raw material and tech sector rising the most. Energy, financial and utilities sector fell. North-bound capital saw net outflow of RMB 1.06 billion. South-bound  capital net inflow of HK$ 5.89 billion, up 40% from that on Wednesday.   

Growth rate trap. Growth rate trap is a concept that Jeremy Siegel brought up in his book “The future for investors”. Growth rate trap refers to that investors pay high premium to high-growth stocks and this results in low return in the future. In growth rate trap investors chase those hot technology and products and buy high-growth sectors and countries. According to Siegel these hot stocks and sectors cannot provide the same return as the traditional sectors. Dividend reinvestment is a key for long-term return. But high-growth companies usually pay little dividend. Moreover, investment return does not depend on the real growth rate but on the difference between real growth rate and the expected growth rate. For those high-growth stocks the expectation is usually high. In case that the growth rate does not meet expectation stock prices would suffer Davis double-killing.

The US stocks fell. The initial jobless claimlast week was 547,000, better than expected. The news that Biden is considering to raise capital gain tax from 20% to 39.7% for income above US$ 1 million sent stocks to fall swiftly. European stocks rose as the European Central Bank would continue to support economy until 2022. It is expected that 70% European would get vaccinated by summer. While economic growth in Euro-region fell quarter-on-quarter in 1Q2021 due to the pandemic, economy would grow faster in 2Q2021 with the pandemic under control. 

聲明：本市場(chǎng)點(diǎn)評(píng)由北京楓瑞資產(chǎn)管理有限公司（以下簡稱“楓瑞資產(chǎn)”）“楓瑞視點(diǎn)”微信公眾號(hào)提供和擁有版權(quán)，授權(quán)上海海獅資產(chǎn)管理有限公司轉(zhuǎn)載。在任何情況下文中信息或所表述的意見不構(gòu)成對(duì)任何人的投資建議，楓瑞資產(chǎn)不對(duì)任何人因使用本文中的內(nèi)容所引發(fā)的損失負(fù)任何責(zé)任。未經(jīng)楓瑞資產(chǎn)書面授權(quán)，本文中的內(nèi)容均不得以任何侵犯楓瑞資產(chǎn)版權(quán)的方式使用和轉(zhuǎn)載。市場(chǎng)有風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，投資需謹(jǐn)慎。

周三A股探底回升。受隔夜美股下跌影響，A股和港股均跳空低開。A股申萬28個(gè)行業(yè)中9個(gè)上漲，漲幅居前的為醫(yī)藥、銀行和休閑服務(wù)，跌幅居前的為鋼鐵、汽車和公用事業(yè)。港股主要指數(shù)跌幅在1.7-1.8%之間，恒生12個(gè)綜合行業(yè)全部下跌，其中能源、科技和非必需消費(fèi)跌幅居前。北上資金凈流出10.6億人民幣，南下資金凈流入42億港幣，南下資金在港股市場(chǎng)大跌時(shí)抄底。

該恐懼還是該貪婪？不論市場(chǎng)在頂點(diǎn)還是底點(diǎn)，恐懼和貪婪是投資者一直要面對(duì)的問題。正如諾貝爾經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)獎(jiǎng)得主耶魯大學(xué)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)教授羅伯特·席勒所言：股市如戰(zhàn)場(chǎng)，投資者要做到知己知彼，但知己不易，知彼更難。投資者必需掌控自己的沖動(dòng)，也需要洞察他人的沖動(dòng)。當(dāng)其他人恐懼時(shí)貪婪，當(dāng)其他人貪婪時(shí)恐懼。如何判斷其他人是恐懼還是貪婪？有很多指標(biāo)可以跟蹤，比如股價(jià)的回落程度、成交量以及基金的發(fā)行進(jìn)度等。上面的分析其實(shí)都是和行為金融學(xué)緊密相關(guān)。相較于有效市場(chǎng)假說中的假設(shè)所有人都是理性的，在行為金融學(xué)中既有理性參與者，也有有限理性參與者。韭菜一茬一茬地被割，就是因?yàn)橐徊ㄓ邢蘩硇詤⑴c者被趕出市場(chǎng)，另一波有限理性參與者又進(jìn)入了市場(chǎng)。做理性參與者需要逆向思維，跟人性對(duì)抗。一個(gè)被廣為傳播的股價(jià)曲線中，投資者往往在股價(jià)最高點(diǎn)最樂觀，在股價(jià)最低點(diǎn)最悲觀。當(dāng)投資者覺得不錯(cuò)的股票價(jià)格下降了，會(huì)不舍得賣出，想等到價(jià)格升了再賣，結(jié)果價(jià)格持續(xù)下跌，就更不舍得了，解套遙遙無期，而理性的行為則應(yīng)該是及時(shí)止損。行為金融學(xué)也發(fā)現(xiàn)不常查看其投資組合的投資者會(huì)經(jīng)歷更少的痛苦，從而能減少情緒帶來的影響，防止做出糟糕的決策——研究結(jié)果表明，如果投資者按月查看自己的投資組合， 而不是每天都得查看一遍，他們將會(huì)減少38%的損失。在投資者的行為偏差中，還包括過度依賴以往股票的表現(xiàn)來推斷未來的價(jià)格走勢(shì)等。投資線性外推往往是危險(xiǎn)的。具體到當(dāng)前市場(chǎng)，是該恐懼還是貪婪呢？我們認(rèn)為總體市場(chǎng)的熱度較春節(jié)前有較大幅度的降溫，無論是從成交量還是基金的發(fā)行來看。很多個(gè)股短期回落幅度也較大。因此當(dāng)前至少不需要過于恐懼，部分個(gè)股存在明顯低估，可以貪婪的。

美股大漲。市場(chǎng)全方位上漲。國債收益率回落到1.55%，原材料價(jià)格上漲，而美元弱勢(shì)，市場(chǎng)處在剛剛好的完美階段。

A-share bottomed out while HK stocks tumbled on Wednesday. Due to that the US stocks fell overnight both A-share and HK stocks jumped low. In A-share 9 out of 28sectors rose with healthcare, bank and leisure service rising the most and ironand steel, auto and utilities falling the most. In HK all of the 12 sectors fellwith energy, raw material and discretionary consumption falling the most. North-bound capital saw net outflow of RMB 106 million. South-bound capital saw net inflow of HK$4.2 billion. South-bound capital bottom fished when HK market fell sharply.

Should we fear or be greedy? Whether the market is on the top or at the bottom, to fear or be greedy is always a question for investors. Just as Nobel laureate Robert Shiller pointed out, the stock market is like a battlefield and an investor should know him- or herself as well as other investors. However, it is rather difficult to know ourselves and it is even more challenging to know other investors well. Investors should keep herd instinct under control and observe others’ herd instinct clearly. When other peoplefear you should be brave and when other people are brave you should fear. The above analyses are associated with behavioral finance. In behavioral finance, some people are rational while others are not that rational. Investors are being played for a sucker one after another mainly because that they are not that rational. Investors are always most optimistic when the stock prices are at their top and the most pessimistic when stock prices are at the bottom. Now should we fear or be greedy in A-share? Several indicators to follow including fundraising, trading volume and how big stock prices fall, etc showed that A-share hascooled down quite a lot compared with what happened before the Chinese New Year.We should not fear too much. Some stocks are valued at low levels and worth being greedy.

The US stocks rallied.  Market fired on all cylinders. 10-year Treasury fell to 1.55% together with a soft US dollar creates goldilocks for the market. 

聲明：本市場(chǎng)點(diǎn)評(píng)由北京楓瑞資產(chǎn)管理有限公司（以下簡稱“楓瑞資產(chǎn)”）“楓瑞視點(diǎn)”微信公眾號(hào)提供和擁有版權(quán)，授權(quán)上海海獅資產(chǎn)管理有限公司轉(zhuǎn)載。在任何情況下文中信息或所表述的意見不構(gòu)成對(duì)任何人的投資建議，楓瑞資產(chǎn)不對(duì)任何人因使用本文中的內(nèi)容所引發(fā)的損失負(fù)任何責(zé)任。未經(jīng)楓瑞資產(chǎn)書面授權(quán)，本文中的內(nèi)容均不得以任何侵犯楓瑞資產(chǎn)版權(quán)的方式使用和轉(zhuǎn)載。市場(chǎng)有風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，投資需謹(jǐn)慎。

周二A股調(diào)整。申萬28個(gè)行業(yè)中10個(gè)上漲，漲幅居前的為綜合、農(nóng)林牧漁和鋼鐵，跌幅居前的為通信、紡織服裝和汽車。滬深兩市成交量較前一交易日略有回落。港股恒生12個(gè)綜合行業(yè)中8個(gè)上漲，非必需性消費(fèi)業(yè)、金融業(yè)和綜合領(lǐng)漲，原材料、能源和工業(yè)下跌。北上資金凈流出5億人民幣，南下資金凈流入53.9億港幣。

美股再通脹交易。上周四，美國商務(wù)部發(fā)布了3月份的零售額，季調(diào)之后達(dá)到創(chuàng)紀(jì)錄的7.4萬億美金。華爾街資深人士亞蒂尼認(rèn)為最近在政府發(fā)放疫情資助支票后，2.5億美國人總計(jì)有8000億美金的現(xiàn)金在賬上，足以夠他們?cè)诟鞔笊虉?chǎng)、超市掃貨。3月份的零售銷售額較一年前的4月份的最低點(diǎn)上漲了50%。3月零售額數(shù)據(jù)出臺(tái)后，亞特蘭大聯(lián)儲(chǔ)預(yù)計(jì)美國1季度GDP季調(diào)之后增長8.3%，之前為6%。杰富瑞證券的全球策略分析師戴仕文將2021到2022年的全球經(jīng)濟(jì)增長比喻成100米接力賽，接力棒從中國手中傳到美國手中，然后是英國、日本和歐洲一起拿下接力棒。由于庫存水平偏低以及供應(yīng)鏈的各種問題，他認(rèn)為美國經(jīng)濟(jì)增長遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)沒有達(dá)到頂峰。但是企業(yè)盈利增速有可能已經(jīng)到頂，一方面原材料價(jià)格上漲，另一方面拜登政府加稅，二者對(duì)企業(yè)盈利都會(huì)造成壓力。3月份美國生產(chǎn)者價(jià)格指數(shù)同比上漲4.2%，創(chuàng)下47年來最大漲幅。綜合各種因素，戴仕文建議堅(jiān)持再通脹交易，小盤股優(yōu)于大盤股，經(jīng)濟(jì)增長和通脹將會(huì)使利率曲線更為陡峭，銀行和消費(fèi)金融公司將會(huì)受益，推薦受益于經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇周期性股票。

A股再通脹交易表現(xiàn)較弱。年初以來，A股申萬28個(gè)行業(yè)中14個(gè)上漲，14個(gè)下跌。其中鋼鐵、采掘和輕工制造領(lǐng)漲，分別上漲28%、9%和8%，國防軍工、非銀金融和通信領(lǐng)跌。港股年初以來12個(gè)行業(yè)中，11個(gè)上漲，僅有必需消費(fèi)行業(yè)下跌。其中原材料、綜合和能源領(lǐng)漲，分別上漲23.4%、23.2%和19.6%。相比之下，A股與再通脹交易相關(guān)的周期性行業(yè)漲幅較小，主要原因是大資金仍然布局在所謂好賽道上?？紤]到好賽道的高估值，對(duì)其的盈利預(yù)期也在高位，未來很有可能下降；其股價(jià)也面臨下行風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。而對(duì)周期股的盈利增速預(yù)期較低，盈利增速和股價(jià)都存在上行風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。

美股連續(xù)第二天下跌。奈飛新增用戶數(shù)低于市場(chǎng)預(yù)期，股價(jià)大跌，帶動(dòng)納指下跌。市場(chǎng)因新冠病例數(shù)持續(xù)上升對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇產(chǎn)生質(zhì)疑。

A-share fell slightly with smaller trading volume. 10 out of 28 sectors rose with conglomerate, farming and fishery and iron and steel sector rising the most. Telecom, textile and auto sector fell the most. In HK 8 out of 12 sectors rose with discretionary consumption, financial and conglomerate rising the most. Raw material, energy and industrial fell the most. North-bound capital saw net outflow of RMB 500 million. South-bound capital saw net inflow of HK$5.39 billion.

Reflation trade in the US stock market. Last Thursday the Commerce Department in the US reported that retail sales in March rose to a record seasonally adjusted US$7.4 trillion, which was 50% increase from last April. Afterthe latest stimulus checks to households, about 250 million Americans have received checks that added up to roughly US$ 800 billion in cash available for them to buy anything they want in supermarkets and department stores. After March retail sales data the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta raised 1Q2021 GDP growth rate from 6% to 8.3%. While economic growth is strong companies’ earnings might peak under the pressure of rising input costs and the likely tax rate increase by Biden administration. March producer price index rose 4.2% year-on-year, the largest gain in 47 years. Sean Darby from Jefferies recommended reflation trade including banks and cyclicals.

Reflation trade in A-share performed poorly.  Year-to-date reflation trade in A-share rose much less than in HK market. While a lot of money is still piling in the so-called“Good tracks”, these stocks’ earnings growth might miss given the high expectation. And the cyclicals that benefit from economic recovery might deliver earnings above expectation, which remains at low levels.

The US stocks fell for the second day in a row. Market worried that surging new cases of COVID-19 might stall economic recovery. 

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