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價值就在這里。彼得·林奇在《戰(zhàn)勝華爾街》中寫道：在選擇投資領(lǐng)域時，我總是青睞那些蕭條的而不是繁榮的產(chǎn)業(yè)。在一個即使有增長也極為緩慢的蕭條產(chǎn)業(yè)中，弱者出局而幸存者得到更大的市場份額。如果一家公司在一個停滯不前的市場上獲得的份額持續(xù)增加，而另一家公司則在一個激動人心的市場上為避免份額的減少而竭力掙扎，那么前者的境況無疑要比后者好得多。周一，地產(chǎn)和銀行等傳統(tǒng)板塊大幅上漲。這些板塊之前大幅調(diào)整，很多投資人認(rèn)為這些板塊的發(fā)展前景暗淡，不具有投資價值，因此棄之如敝履。其實(shí)這些板塊的估值已經(jīng)達(dá)到歷史最低點(diǎn)。比如房地產(chǎn)板塊，其靜態(tài)市盈率估值處在2000年以來的0.18%的分位，意味著當(dāng)前時點(diǎn)估值是20年最低。房地產(chǎn)板塊的市場集中度很低。“三條紅線”政策其實(shí)是幫助地產(chǎn)行業(yè)去產(chǎn)能，而大房企的競爭優(yōu)勢在政策高壓下反而能夠凸顯，有利于他們提升市場份額。銀行板塊作為一個高杠桿行業(yè)，以市凈率估值更合理。而它的靜態(tài)市凈率也處在2000年以來0.18%的分位，跟地產(chǎn)板塊一樣，處在20年來的最低點(diǎn)。房地產(chǎn)公司的股東近期一直在出手增持，認(rèn)為股價很便宜，這也說明房地產(chǎn)公司的盈利是有保證的，不會大幅下滑。而銀行板塊因?yàn)槿ツ甑淖尷麑?shí)體造成了業(yè)績的低基數(shù)，今年上半年的業(yè)績應(yīng)該會比較靚麗。估值處在歷史底部以及基本面有保證，銀行和房地產(chǎn)的股票大概率已經(jīng)見底。彼得·林奇的話翻譯過來就是再暗淡的行業(yè)也會有勝出者，而這些夕陽行業(yè)的勝出者遠(yuǎn)比朝陽行業(yè)的落伍者更值得投資。對于這些低估的板塊，套用一句當(dāng)下流行的話：買與不買，價值都在這里。

A股和港股上漲。中國7月的消費(fèi)者價格指數(shù)和生產(chǎn)者價格指數(shù)的同比增速均超出市場預(yù)期。因國家收儲，豬肉價格止跌回升；同時，暑期各種服務(wù)類價格上漲帶動CPI漲幅超預(yù)期。PPI價格由大宗商品價格帶動超預(yù)期。PPI和CPI剪刀差繼續(xù)擴(kuò)大，反應(yīng)下游利潤率有可能進(jìn)一步受到壓制。美股中的復(fù)蘇股受到新冠疫情加劇的影響而回落，帶動標(biāo)普500和道指下跌，納指上漲。市場等待美國7月份的通脹數(shù)據(jù)，CPI和PPI將分別在本周三和周四發(fā)布。

There is investment value in property and bank sector. Peter Lynch wrote in his famous book “Beat the street” that  he prefers to buy those companies in declining sectors rather than in promisingsectors. The reason is that those companies that can win more market share in a declining sector usually perform better in stock market than those in a promising sector face with cutthroat competition. Both property and bank sector belong to declining sectors. Investors do not want to invest in these two sectors as their growth prospects seem to be bleak. Yet their valuation is at a 20-year low level. Property sector is valued at trailing-twelve-month price-to-earnings ratio (TTW PE) of 7.15x, which is at 0.36% percentile from 2000 after Monday’s rally. Bank sector is a leveraged sector. Hence, price-to-book value is (PB) appropriate for this sector. Its TTW PB is valued at 0.64x, which put it at 0.18% percentile from 2000. It was reported that some property companies bought their stocks as they deemed their stocks very cheap. Hence, the market concernabout these companies’ earnings growth in 2021 should be alleviated to a great extent. Banks delivered a lackluster earnings growth in 2020 due to that they were required to give out part of their profits to the industrial enterprises.So this year their earnings growth should be stronger given a low base in 2020.Investing in the leading players in both property and bank sector is actuallyto invest in good companies at bargain prices. You might not like this kind of investment.But there is deep value.

Both A-share and HK stocks rose. Both consumer priceindex (CPI) and Producer price index (PPI) in July in China came in higher than expected. The higher CPI was driven by service prices while PPI was driven by commodity prices. CPI and PPI divergence widened in July, implying that downstream and manufacturing firms would be faced with margin pressure. COVID-19 pandemic is worsening in the US, dragging down those recovery stocks. DOW andSP500 fell while Nasdaq rose. Market is waiting for CPI and PPI to come out on coming Wednesday and Thursday. 

聲明：本市場點(diǎn)評由北京楓瑞資產(chǎn)管理有限公司（以下簡稱“楓瑞資產(chǎn)”）“楓瑞視點(diǎn)”微信公眾號提供和擁有版權(quán)，授權(quán)上海海獅資產(chǎn)管理有限公司轉(zhuǎn)載。在任何情況下文中信息或所表述的意見不構(gòu)成對任何人的投資建議，楓瑞資產(chǎn)不對任何人因使用本文中的內(nèi)容所引發(fā)的損失負(fù)任何責(zé)任。未經(jīng)楓瑞資產(chǎn)書面授權(quán)，本文中的內(nèi)容均不得以任何侵犯楓瑞資產(chǎn)版權(quán)的方式使用和轉(zhuǎn)載。市場有風(fēng)險，投資需謹(jǐn)慎。