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市場(chǎng)在告訴我們什么？周二A股和港股均泥沙俱下。A股28個(gè)行業(yè)全部下跌，但是低估值板塊跌幅較少，包括房地產(chǎn)、建筑材料和交通運(yùn)輸?shù)?.2-0.4%。而高估值板塊包括休閑服務(wù)、食品飲料和醫(yī)藥生物跌幅在3.6-4.8%。港股12個(gè)行業(yè)均下跌，其中跌幅較少的是金融和綜合業(yè)，跌幅較大的是科技和原材料行業(yè)。市場(chǎng)對(duì)周二的下跌有各種猜測(cè)，其一是央行周二在7000億中期便利借貸到期后只續(xù)作了6000億，外加100億的逆回購(gòu)。這說(shuō)明央行在7月15日的降準(zhǔn)只是置換到期的中期借貸便利，并不是寬松的開(kāi)始。這與市場(chǎng)預(yù)期的貨幣寬松有所不同，疊加周一發(fā)布的經(jīng)濟(jì)數(shù)據(jù)全面低于預(yù)期，市場(chǎng)因此大跌。當(dāng)然中美關(guān)系以及媒體報(bào)道的嚴(yán)查市場(chǎng)黑嘴等消息也對(duì)市場(chǎng)構(gòu)成沖擊。但是這些就是市場(chǎng)大跌的理由嗎？我們認(rèn)為根本原因還是一些板塊和個(gè)股缺乏安全邊際。所謂安全邊際，就是買(mǎi)入的股票價(jià)格要與其內(nèi)在價(jià)值有一定的差值，這個(gè)差值就是安全邊際。安全邊際大，所能承受的股價(jià)下跌的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)也較大。所謂內(nèi)在價(jià)值，根據(jù)《證券分析》一書(shū)的作者本杰明·格雷厄姆，通常由資產(chǎn)、收益和股息等事實(shí)和可以確定的前景決定的，也即由企業(yè)的發(fā)展前景以及其所能創(chuàng)造的收益和股息率所決定。格雷厄姆其實(shí)在20世紀(jì)20年代的早期就開(kāi)始提倡內(nèi)在價(jià)值和安全邊際的理念。由于未來(lái)充滿(mǎn)變數(shù)，因此投資者是自身對(duì)抗未來(lái)的不確定性，因此應(yīng)該以低于內(nèi)在價(jià)值的成本進(jìn)行投資。內(nèi)在價(jià)值這一理念發(fā)展到現(xiàn)在，投資人將企業(yè)在可預(yù)見(jiàn)的未來(lái)所能創(chuàng)造的自由現(xiàn)金流作為確定內(nèi)在價(jià)值的依據(jù)。高估值板塊的企業(yè)未來(lái)所能創(chuàng)造的自由現(xiàn)金流折現(xiàn)在是否能夠超過(guò)當(dāng)前股價(jià)存在較大不確定性。這意味著這些股票的安全邊際很低或者是沒(méi)有的。因此，在面對(duì)未來(lái)經(jīng)濟(jì)存在下行壓力可能會(huì)造成企業(yè)盈利下行而政策又不能如預(yù)期及時(shí)出手的情況下，高估值板塊的下跌雖是意料之外，卻也在情理之中。投資要投的是具有較高安全邊際的股票。否則，就是投機(jī)或者是賭運(yùn)氣。

美股下跌。7月零售數(shù)據(jù)環(huán)比增速下降1.1%，市場(chǎng)預(yù)期下跌0.3%。Delta病毒對(duì)美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)的負(fù)面影響逐漸體現(xiàn)。美元指數(shù)創(chuàng)出今年以來(lái)的新高，達(dá)到93.144，據(jù)3月底的高點(diǎn)93.286僅一步之遙。美元指數(shù)上漲帶動(dòng)大宗商品價(jià)格全線下跌。

What does the market tell us? Both A-share and HK stocks tumbled on Tuesday. In A-share leisure service, food and beverage and medicine and healthcare sector fell the most at 3.6-4.8% while property, construction material and transportation fell the least at 0.2-0.4%. In general, those high-valued stocks fell more than thelow-valued ones. Some investors owed the sharp drop of stocks to that the People’sBank of China renewed Medium-term Lending Facility at a smaller amount than that due on Tuesday. This together with the lower-than-expected economic data in July crushed the stock market. Others thought that geopolitical tensions made investors decrease their risk preference. Yet the root could be that these stocks lack safety margin. Safety margin is a concept that was brought up by Benjamin Graham in the early 1920’s. Benjamin Graham is famous for his book “Security Analysis” and being the tutor for the legendary investor Warren Buffett. Graham believed that stock investors were faced with great uncertainties and should buy a stock at a price that should be lower than intrinsic value of the stock,which is determined by the growth prospects of the company. Nowadays intrinsic value refers to the discounted free cash flow that a company can create in a foreseeable future. The stock prices of those high-valued might be a little lower or even higher than their intrinsic value. Hence,when the economy might slow down and policies might not be brought up timely these stocks would be faced with earnings slowdown and valuation contraction. Investing in a stock with a high margin of safety is the right way to invest. Otherwise,it is speculation.

The US stocks fell sharply. Retail sales in July fell1.1% month-on-month, higher than 0.3% expected. Delta variant was negatively impacting the US economic recovery. The US dollar index reached above 93 and wasonly one step away from the high reached at the end of March. Commodity prices fell across the board. Investors are concerned that Delta variant would weigh heavily on the economy.

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