壹 價值股表現(xiàn)好于成長股
8月份以來，A股和港股都經(jīng)歷較大跌幅。但價值股表現(xiàn)較好，尤其是非周期類的價值股包括銀行、房地產(chǎn)、大基建等板塊。而曾經(jīng)火熱的賽道股都大幅調(diào)整。展望3、4季度，我們認(rèn)為隨著國內(nèi)經(jīng)濟(jì)下行壓力加大，以賽道股為代表的成長股將會面臨盈利增速下調(diào)的壓力，同時估值也會下調(diào)。反觀價值股，大多數(shù)具有順政策周期的特性。3季度我們預(yù)期財政政策將會更加積極，具體表現(xiàn)在專項(xiàng)債的發(fā)行將會提速。而4季度如果內(nèi)外需皆下行，則貨幣政策將會開始寬松節(jié)奏。在財政政策和貨幣政策作用下，價值股將會有較好表現(xiàn)。
貳 賽道股還能不能買？
一些去年曾經(jīng)火熱的賽道股從今年春節(jié)后開始調(diào)整，至今板塊跌幅在30-40%。有朋友因此咨詢這些板塊的股票可不可以介入。當(dāng)有人還惦記這些板塊的時候，基本上可以說明這些板塊的跌幅并沒有到位。另外，這些板塊當(dāng)前估值也并不便宜，疊加盈利的可能下跌，可以預(yù)期他們的股價還將持續(xù)調(diào)整。
叁 為什么價值股開始表現(xiàn)？
當(dāng)板塊跌到底部的時候，一個特征就是沒有人記得還有這個板塊。也正是因?yàn)闆]人記得了，所以板塊到底了。比如大基建板塊。這個板塊從去年新冠疫情發(fā)生以來有過幾次如煙花般短暫而絢麗的表現(xiàn)，之后就歸于沉寂。而板塊估值無論A股還是港股都處在歷史最低水平。類似這樣的價值股還很多。從估值看，港股的更便宜。很多兩地上市的股票，港股的估值比A股低至少20%以上。其中很多板塊和個股的業(yè)績是不錯的。
肆 價值股為什么不招人待見
投資者不愿意投資的原因是因?yàn)檫@些價值股處于傳統(tǒng)行業(yè)，已經(jīng)過了業(yè)績的高速增長期。跟科技和新能源等這些一說起名字都讓人無比激動的行業(yè)相比，傳統(tǒng)行業(yè)讓人似乎一眼就望到了盡頭，激發(fā)不起投資的勁頭。但是，真正好的投資就是乏味的投資。令人激動的投資最后往往是成長陷阱。隨著美聯(lián)儲逐步回收巨額流動性以及美債利率的走高，這些幾倍市盈率、零點(diǎn)幾倍市凈率的股票在未來有很大可能跑贏幾百倍市盈率、十幾二十倍市凈率的賽道股。
伍 市場綜述
A股和港股在金融股帶領(lǐng)下上漲。美聯(lián)儲7月份議息會議紀(jì)要公布，如市場預(yù)期開始討論縮減債券購買計劃。紀(jì)要提到：大部分人同意開始縮減債券購買計劃，因通脹已經(jīng)達(dá)到預(yù)期的水平。而隨著經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇，就業(yè)也將逐漸達(dá)到政策目標(biāo)。美聯(lián)儲最早有可能在本月下旬召開的杰克森年會上正式公布縮減債券購買計劃。美國7月新屋開工數(shù)環(huán)比下跌7%，大幅低于市場預(yù)期。美股因新冠疫情肆虐連續(xù)第二天下跌。
I. Market style might shift to value stocks
Both A-share and HK stocks dropped sharply from July. Yet value stocks outperformed. Value stocks include bank, property, infrastructure stocks, etc. In contrast, the hot track-stocks fell sharply during this period. These hot track stocks might face earnings growth pressure in 3Q and 4Q this year with economy likely slowingdown.
II. Value stocks to be on the tailwind of policies
Value stocks might be on the tailwind of accommodative policies. In 3Q fiscal policy would become more proactive. A case in point would be that the special purpose debt would hasten issuance to boost infrastructure investment.In 4Q if both domestic and international demand dwindles monetary policy would ease again.
III. Value stocks are at historical low valuation levels
Most of these value stocks are at historical low. For those dual-listed valuation in HK market is at least 20% cheaper than in A-share. Apart from cyclical value stocks other value stocks have not performed since the pandemic. Yet their earnings growth is not bad at all. Take the example of bank sector, some mid-sized banks delivered more than 20% year-on-year earnings growth.
IV. Good investments are just boring
Compared with tech and new energy sector, these traditional stocks sound boring. But good investment is just boring. Those that can make investors excited usually turn out to be growth trap.With the Federal Reserve to take back liquidity and the US treasury yield to rise along with that growth stocks would be under pressure and value stocks would perform well.
V. Summary on global markets
Financial sector led the rally in A-share and HK market. The US stocks fell for a second day as Delta variant surged and weighed on cyclical stocks. The Federal released its July meeting minutes,which indicated that most participants agreed that the Fed should dial back asset purchase scale. The Fed noted that economy reached its goal on inflation and was close to be satisfied on employment. Housing starts in July fell 7% month-on-month, which was well below expectation. Recently economic data in theUS were disappointed due to Delta variant. Another possible reason is that the US economy might reach its peak levels.
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