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壹 抱團(tuán)股再次崩塌

      上周抱團(tuán)股的崩塌再次讓投資人損失慘重。今年以來A股市場抱團(tuán)股屢次大幅調(diào)整。春節(jié)之后因?yàn)槊纻找媛噬仙约把胄惺站o流動(dòng)性導(dǎo)致估值高企的抱團(tuán)股發(fā)生大跌。此次調(diào)整在3月中旬趨于緩和，之后抱團(tuán)股重拾上漲態(tài)勢，同時(shí)新能源和光伏賽道崛起，資金再次緊密抱團(tuán)新賽道。6月底、7月初以來，隨著政府對一些互聯(lián)網(wǎng)企業(yè)的管控加強(qiáng)，A股開啟第二波調(diào)整。首當(dāng)其沖的還是抱團(tuán)股。截止2021年8月20日，貴州茅臺(tái)從6月初的高點(diǎn)下跌了33.6%，從2月春節(jié)之后的高點(diǎn)下跌了41%。其他抱團(tuán)股也有較大幅度的調(diào)整。持有這些抱團(tuán)股的基金凈值也有較大回撤。我們之前曾經(jīng)多次提示抱團(tuán)股其實(shí)并沒有投資價(jià)值，因?yàn)槠涔乐狄呀?jīng)完全反應(yīng)了所有的利好。股價(jià)的方向只能是下跌，而不是上漲。

       貳 抱團(tuán)股仍面臨風(fēng)險(xiǎn)

      當(dāng)前市場上很多熱門板塊都存在估值高的問題。雖然持有這些板塊的基金短期賺錢了，業(yè)績也不錯(cuò)，但其實(shí)隱含著很大的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。一方面，政策信號(hào)已經(jīng)很明確，賺錢要公平。以壟斷地位賺錢未來可能會(huì)面臨政策的打壓。而很多抱團(tuán)股之所以享受高估值，一個(gè)主要原因就是市場給予的壟斷估值溢價(jià)。另一方面，隨著美國逐漸收緊流動(dòng)性，這些成長股的估值也會(huì)面臨壓力。同時(shí)，中國經(jīng)濟(jì)增速在2季度達(dá)到同比高點(diǎn)之后，在3、4季度將會(huì)逐季走低。這些對企業(yè)盈利也會(huì)造成壓力。而央行可能在美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)收緊流動(dòng)性的過程中也會(huì)保持克制，避免造成人民幣的過大波動(dòng)。這也意味著不能指望國內(nèi)流動(dòng)性的放松很快到來，高估值股票因此面臨較大風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。

       叁 投資要賺業(yè)績提升的錢

       要想在今年規(guī)避這種虧損，其實(shí)是需要投資人想清楚投資要賺什么錢：是賺估值提升的錢，還是業(yè)績提升的錢。估值提升需要流動(dòng)性的配合，而業(yè)績提升就是要尋找基本面優(yōu)秀的企業(yè)。作為專業(yè)投資人士，尋找基本面優(yōu)秀的企業(yè)從而賺取業(yè)績提升的錢才是其價(jià)值所在。以資金優(yōu)勢抬升企業(yè)估值，即使短期股價(jià)上漲了，長期看也是不可能持續(xù)的。白酒醫(yī)藥等抱團(tuán)股去年和今年的截然相反表現(xiàn)很好的詮釋了這一點(diǎn)。對于今年新的抱團(tuán)股投資人也要小心，以避免重蹈覆轍。

        肆 市場綜述

       上周全球指數(shù)普跌。港股恒生指數(shù)在全球16個(gè)主要國家和地區(qū)指數(shù)中跌幅最大，5.84%；其次法國CAC40指數(shù)、臺(tái)灣指數(shù)和深成指，分別下跌3.91%、3.77%和3.68%。上證指數(shù)2.53%，下跌幅度居中。關(guān)注美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)在下周的杰克森年會(huì)上是否就削減債券購買表態(tài)。

I. Group-holding stocks tumbled again

Last week group-holding stocks tumbled again, which happened several times this year. The first is after Chinese New Year festival. Due to thefast-rising treasury yield in the US and that the People’s bank of China withdrawing liquidity, group-holding stocks fell sharply until mid-March. Then from late June and early July due to that government brought measures to crack down internet sector and tutoring sector, group-holding stocks fell again.  Until last Friday Kweichow Moutai fell 33.6%from its high in early June and 41% from its high in mid-Feb. 

II. To earn money from companies' earnings growth

The fall of group-holding stocks has created big losses for those funds holding them. To avoid such big losses,one needs to think clearly what money he or she should earn in investment, i.e.,to earn money from valuation improvement or from earnings growth. To earn money from valuation improvement it requires liquidity improvement. While to earn money from earnings growth it requires to find good companies. As professional investor it should be his or her duty to find good companies that can deliver strong earnings growth. In this way the professional investors can add value to those who trust them with money to manage. It is not sustainable to earn money from liquidity improvement. The sharp contrast of group-holding stocks' performance this year and last year illustrates this point well. New group-holding stocks in new energy and chip sector emerged in A-share from mid-March. These stocks might repeat what happened to liquor sector.

III. A summary of global markets last week

Hang Seng Index fell 5.89% last week and the worst-performing index among the 16 global major indexes. Shenzhen Composite Index fell 3.68%,the fourth worst-performing index globally. Global central banks will convene online for Jackson Hole annual meeting this week. Market is paying attention to whether the Federal Reserve chairman Powell would disclose any details on taper.

聲明：本市場點(diǎn)評由北京楓瑞資產(chǎn)管理有限公司（以下簡稱“楓瑞資產(chǎn)”）“楓瑞視點(diǎn)”微信公眾號(hào)提供和擁有版權(quán)，授權(quán)上海海獅資產(chǎn)管理有限公司轉(zhuǎn)載。在任何情況下文中信息或所表述的意見不構(gòu)成對任何人的投資建議，楓瑞資產(chǎn)不對任何人因使用本文中的內(nèi)容所引發(fā)的損失負(fù)任何責(zé)任。未經(jīng)楓瑞資產(chǎn)書面授權(quán)，本文中的內(nèi)容均不得以任何侵犯楓瑞資產(chǎn)版權(quán)的方式使用和轉(zhuǎn)載。市場有風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，投資需謹(jǐn)慎。