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 壹 投資價(jià)值四要素

      在《大錢(qián)細(xì)思》一書(shū)，喬爾·帝林哈斯特指出：影響投資價(jià)值的主要有四個(gè)要素，即盈利能力、生命周期、成長(zhǎng)性和確定性。他指出，從宏觀層面看，利潤(rùn)豐厚的公司，在經(jīng)營(yíng)確定性較強(qiáng)的情況下，行業(yè)的周期性越弱，存活的時(shí)間越長(zhǎng)。成長(zhǎng)性也非常重要，歷史上許多公司在缺少盈利驅(qū)動(dòng)后，價(jià)值都?xì)w為零。他認(rèn)為：除了規(guī)模較小的非耐用消費(fèi)品行業(yè)，大部分公司很難兼具確定性和成長(zhǎng)性。

       貳 將不安全邊際最小化

      他同時(shí)認(rèn)為巴菲特是將“不安全邊際”最小化以應(yīng)對(duì)不確定性。如果你將不要賠錢(qián)的投資原則放在第一位，那么減少不安全邊際就是你需要重點(diǎn)考慮的事情。發(fā)掘價(jià)值首先要辨別公司的盈利能力。如果篩選的公司盈利能力強(qiáng)，則要看這種盈利能力能夠持續(xù)多久。不同行業(yè)情況是完全不同的。如果一家公司沒(méi)有替代品，也沒(méi)有競(jìng)爭(zhēng)者，那么它往往可以獲得較高回報(bào)。像自然壟斷型的公司包括電力和燃?xì)獾?，但這些公司的產(chǎn)品價(jià)格通常會(huì)受到政府管制。這些公用事業(yè)公司的生存和業(yè)務(wù)確定性要高于追求高利潤(rùn)。

       叁 消費(fèi)品公司和高科技公司

       品牌消費(fèi)品公司在過(guò)去半個(gè)世紀(jì)的利潤(rùn)率要高于其他任何行業(yè)。具備上述提及的四個(gè)要素中的三個(gè)，即盈利能力、生命周期和確定性，但成長(zhǎng)性往往不足。高科技公司一般是盈利能力強(qiáng)、成長(zhǎng)性高，但是他們一般生命周期短，同時(shí)面臨較大不確定性，包括是否被新的技術(shù)取代。在變化迅速的行業(yè)，公司只有通過(guò)不斷創(chuàng)新才能生存下來(lái)。他最后指出：投資是具有挑戰(zhàn)性的活動(dòng)，在過(guò)程中投資者需要避免不切實(shí)際的期望。

       肆  看看A股市場(chǎng)

       喬爾所說(shuō)的這些判斷投資價(jià)值的標(biāo)準(zhǔn)同樣適用于A股。結(jié)合估值來(lái)看，A股市場(chǎng)那些盈利能力高、生命周期處在朝陽(yáng)階段，短期成長(zhǎng)性和確定性都很強(qiáng)的公司估值都較高。而對(duì)于那些走下坡路的行業(yè)，估值很低，因?yàn)槌砷L(zhǎng)性不足。但是，A股市場(chǎng)一個(gè)比較矛盾的現(xiàn)象是：盈利確定性高的行業(yè)估值太高，而成長(zhǎng)性不足的行業(yè)估值又太低。如果這些盈利確定性高的行業(yè)或者公司的盈利一旦低于預(yù)期，公司股價(jià)就會(huì)遭受較大打擊；而成長(zhǎng)性不足的公司一旦業(yè)績(jī)?cè)鏊偬嵘?，則會(huì)有估值的提升。

      伍 市場(chǎng)綜述

      周一A股和港股均上漲。騰訊展開(kāi)回購(gòu)，港股科網(wǎng)股大幅上漲。A股軍工股和周期股漲幅居前。美股全面上漲，納斯達(dá)克指數(shù)創(chuàng)出歷史新高。因美國(guó)FDA批準(zhǔn)輝瑞的兩劑疫苗，疫苗股、經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇股和周期股大幅上漲。

I. How to find investment values? 

In his popular book “Big money thinks small” Joel Tillinghast pointed out that from macro point of view one should observe four aspects to find investment values. These include profitability, business cycle, growth and certainty. He further pointed out that for those companies with high profitability the ups-and-downs would become smaller if they can maintain high profitability with a high certainty. Apart from some small non-durable consumer goods companies most companies can’t have both growth and certainties. 

II. To decrease uncertainty of safety margin

Warren Buffett tried to decrease uncertainty of safety margin to the least by buying stocks at a big discount. If an investor puts principal safety as the top priority, then he or she should consider how to decrease uncertainty of safety margin. 

III. Utilities, consumers and high-tech companies

The first thing to find value is to see whether the company can make a profit. If a company can earn a lot of money, then it is necessary to see whether it can sustain this profitability for a long time. The situation differs from sectors. If a company does not have competitors then it can earn a lot of money. Utilities company usually are in this situation. Yet their products prices are regulated. This means that their earnings’ certainty is higher than profitability. Consumer stables have higher profitability, less volatility and certainty. Yet their growth isusually low. High-tech companies have high growth rate and high profitability.But their certainty is usually low and often faced with big volatility. In a fast-changing world, high-tech companies are often substituted by new technologies. 

IV. What happened and will happen in A-share 

What Joel mentioned also apply to A-share. However, in A-share there is a conflict. For those companies with high profitability and certainty their valuation is at extremely high levels. Yet for those companies with low profitability their valuation is at extremely low levels. This could change dramatically if high profitability companies deliver less earnings than expected or low profitability companies deliver earnings higher than expected.

V. A summary of global markets 

Global markets rallied. Tencent announced share buyback. FDA approved twodoses of vaccine of Pfizer, boosting vaccine stocks in the US.

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