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壹 白酒股的邏輯發(fā)生改變

      周四各種茅集中崩盤，崩盤的背后是邏輯的變化。以某著名白酒公司為例，其酒的零售價(jià)格今年以來持續(xù)上漲，近期已達(dá)到3000元每瓶，但股價(jià)從2季度開始與持續(xù)上漲的酒價(jià)背離。這背后就是擔(dān)憂老百姓的消費(fèi)能力不足以支撐這么高的酒價(jià)。因此，當(dāng)周四有媒體報(bào)道其批發(fā)價(jià)調(diào)降200元時(shí)，其實(shí)是契合了市場(chǎng)的擔(dān)憂。同時(shí)，由于該酒的開瓶率一直較低，意味著很多酒其實(shí)并沒有被消費(fèi)，而是儲(chǔ)存起來了。因此當(dāng)價(jià)格下跌時(shí)，這些儲(chǔ)存起來的酒很有可能出現(xiàn)在市場(chǎng)中，加劇價(jià)格的下跌。之前上漲的邏輯是酒價(jià)持續(xù)上漲，由于供給受限，因而需求無法得到有效滿足。下跌的邏輯變成了價(jià)格越跌，供應(yīng)越多。

      貳 醫(yī)藥股的邏輯

     而醫(yī)藥茅的崩塌也是邏輯發(fā)生了變化。以某著名創(chuàng)新藥企業(yè)為例。其股價(jià)上漲的時(shí)候市場(chǎng)認(rèn)為其管線足以支撐起比當(dāng)前大幾倍的市值，估值應(yīng)參照美股輝瑞的市值。但當(dāng)集采失利后，市場(chǎng)發(fā)現(xiàn)創(chuàng)新藥再好，也需要降價(jià)進(jìn)入集采才能獲得較高的市場(chǎng)份額。藥茅下跌的時(shí)候開始跟輝瑞比市盈率，發(fā)現(xiàn)輝瑞長(zhǎng)期以來也就20倍左右的市盈率。

     叁 實(shí)質(zhì)是預(yù)期變了

     為什們上漲時(shí)一套邏輯而下跌時(shí)又一套邏輯呢？無論對(duì)于白酒還是醫(yī)藥，其實(shí)這些所謂的好賽道都存在風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，只不過當(dāng)市場(chǎng)上漲的時(shí)候，投資人要么視而不見，要么就是選擇性的忽略掉這些風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。因此，股價(jià)只反應(yīng)了最樂觀的預(yù)期。而當(dāng)股價(jià)下跌時(shí)，市場(chǎng)才猛然發(fā)現(xiàn)原來風(fēng)險(xiǎn)這么多，而且隨著股價(jià)越跌越深，風(fēng)險(xiǎn)不但沒有減少，反而一個(gè)又一個(gè)新的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)冒出來。其實(shí)，也是因?yàn)楸^預(yù)期開始后，風(fēng)險(xiǎn)逐漸地被注意到了。所以，投資需要理性判斷，不能過度樂觀也不宜過度悲觀。不過，一般人都很難做到這一點(diǎn)。所以，投資最終就是挑戰(zhàn)自己。

      肆 投資者有可能對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)過于悲觀

     衡量經(jīng)濟(jì)數(shù)據(jù)是高于預(yù)期或者低于預(yù)期的程度的花旗意外經(jīng)濟(jì)指數(shù)近期達(dá)到-37。這是疫情發(fā)生以來首次跌入負(fù)區(qū)間。這主要是因?yàn)镈elta病毒。市場(chǎng)擔(dān)心Delta病毒將加劇通脹，進(jìn)而影響消費(fèi)需求。經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家對(duì)美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)2021年的增長(zhǎng)預(yù)測(cè)從6月份的6.5%下調(diào)為6%。相應(yīng)地，由于Delta病毒的沖擊，經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家也下調(diào)了對(duì)中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)增速的預(yù)期。但好消息是，經(jīng)濟(jì)意外指數(shù)已經(jīng)處在歷史上20%的分位，即80%的時(shí)間該指數(shù)都高于當(dāng)前水平。這意味著未來的經(jīng)濟(jì)數(shù)據(jù)大概率會(huì)超預(yù)期。周五杰克森年會(huì)將在線上舉行，市場(chǎng)關(guān)注美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)任何關(guān)于收縮債券購(gòu)買計(jì)劃的細(xì)節(jié)。年會(huì)前市場(chǎng)情緒謹(jǐn)慎，全球股市普跌。

I. Logic behind the liquor stock

On Thursday good-track stocks fell sharply, reflecting that logic has changed for these stocks. Take the example of a famous spirit stock, its liquor price rose from the beginning of this year to RMB 3000 per bottle recently. Yet its stock prices went south after Chinese New Year festival as market was concerned that consumption volume would become less due to the high liquor price. Moreover, given that many bottles of the liquor are not consumed but stocked for prices increase, they would come into the market with liquor prices coming down. When stock prices rose, the logic is that its supply was limited and liquor prices could rise continuously. And when stock prices fell, more and more supply would come out.

II. An example of a pharmaceutical company

A famous innovative pharmaceutical company was faced with the same dilemma. When its stock price was going up, market expected that its strong pipeline of innovative drugs would support a much bigger market cap if taking Pfizer as valuation benchmark. But after its drugs failed to enter the national centralized purchase list market found that innovative drugs should not be given such a high valuation. Then compared with the 20x price-to-earnings ratio of Pfizer the pharmaceutical company was highly valued. 

III. Expectation has changed

In fact, whether in the case of the liquor company or the pharmaceutical company the risks mentioned above have alwaysbeen there. But when the stock prices are rising market omit them. And when stock prices fell, market began to pay attention to these risks. So when investing it is wise to remain not so optimistic and pessimistic.

IV. Market might be over-concerned about economic growth prospects

Due to Delta variant economists downgraded the US GDP growth rate in 2021 from 6.5% to 6%. China’s GDP growth rate in 2021 was also downgraded by economists. But The Citi Economic Surprise Index, a score that measures the degree to which economic data is beating or missing estimates, has fallen into negative territory for the first time since pandemic. This implies that market might be over-concerned about economic growth prospects. Global markets were cautious ahead of the Jackson Hole annual meeting, which would take place on Friday virtually. 

聲明：本市場(chǎng)點(diǎn)評(píng)由北京楓瑞資產(chǎn)管理有限公司（以下簡(jiǎn)稱“楓瑞資產(chǎn)”）“楓瑞視點(diǎn)”微信公眾號(hào)提供和擁有版權(quán)，授權(quán)上海海獅資產(chǎn)管理有限公司轉(zhuǎn)載。在任何情況下文中信息或所表述的意見不構(gòu)成對(duì)任何人的投資建議，楓瑞資產(chǎn)不對(duì)任何人因使用本文中的內(nèi)容所引發(fā)的損失負(fù)任何責(zé)任。未經(jīng)楓瑞資產(chǎn)書面授權(quán)，本文中的內(nèi)容均不得以任何侵犯楓瑞資產(chǎn)版權(quán)的方式使用和轉(zhuǎn)載。市場(chǎng)有風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，投資需謹(jǐn)慎。