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      伍 美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)此次縮減債券的影響將不如2013年大

      上周五美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)主席鮑威爾支出美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)將在年底之前實(shí)施縮減債券購(gòu)買計(jì)劃。此次美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)縮減債券購(gòu)買對(duì)發(fā)展中市場(chǎng)的股市影響將會(huì)小于2013年。一方面，發(fā)展中市場(chǎng)今年的經(jīng)濟(jì)基本面好于2013年，另一方面，美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)通過不斷地延遲退出寬松政策的腳步，使得市場(chǎng)消化了大部分沖擊。而2013年的縮減恐慌一定程度上是美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)與市場(chǎng)溝通不夠造成的。

I. The long-bulls of the US stocks 

There are three long bulls for the US stocks after the World War II, which lasted from 1949 to 1956, 1990 to 2000 and 2009 to 2020. SP 500 rose 3.72, 5.83 and 5.09 for these three bulls respectively.  The bull market from 2009 to 2020 is the longest bull in the history. We found that earnings growth drove 90%+ of the bull while the remaining 10% came from valuation improvement. FAANG stocks,which include Facebook, Apple, Amazon, Netflix and Google, have been valued at trailing-twelve-month price-to-earnings ratio of 20-30x most of the time during the bull market from 2009 to 2020. 

II.Economic structure supports the bull market

The US stock market are not affected by  inventory cycle as much as China’s A-share market. This is because that manufacturing only takes 12% of the US GDP compared with China’s more than 30%.The low point of inventory cycle coincides with the relatively low point of the US stock market, which then picks up steam and go up again. Consumption and service take 80% of the US economy. From 2009 and 2020 non-manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index of Institute of Supply Management, which gauges the situation of consumption and service sector, remained above the threshold of 50 most of the time. This index touched low point of 37.6 and 41.8 respectively in Nov. 2008 due to the global financial crises and April 2020 due to COVID-19 crises. The prosperity of consumption and service sector supports the long-bull of the US stock market. 

III. The US economy leads the world economy

The low point of inventory cycle in the US usually means the low point of the global stocks due to that the US economy is the engine of the global economy. We have discussed this in "The outlook of A-share in 2021”（2021年A股投資展望）in details. 

IV. A-share would not be affected by the US economy greatly

A-share used to be affected by the US inventory cycle badly as China’s economy relied on export to a great extent. However, going forward we expect the impact to become smaller and smaller. The first is that China has changed its economic development towards domestic circulation, meaning that it would not rely on export as much as it used to be. The second is that Chinese companies have moved up along the value chain, meaning that they would not be hit as hard as previously when the US economy runs into trouble.

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