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壹 第一重--買什么股票？

      我們認(rèn)為A股市場(chǎng)的迷茫主要來自于三個(gè)方面。首先，是買什么股票的迷茫。在經(jīng)濟(jì)下行期，找到景氣板塊不是很容易。所以，資金持續(xù)涌入一些熱門板塊，造成這些板塊的估值處在較高水平，有可能隨時(shí)面臨調(diào)整的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。近期，這些人們板塊確實(shí)有了一定幅度的回調(diào)，在一定程度上也驗(yàn)證了高估值板塊存在的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。而傳統(tǒng)板塊隨著股價(jià)持續(xù)的低迷估值確實(shí)到了較低的水平，但是基本面短期看還沒有明確的催化劑。A股市場(chǎng)的一些機(jī)構(gòu)半年要考核一次。如果這些低估值板塊在半年內(nèi)無法表現(xiàn)，一定會(huì)拖累業(yè)績。去年的熱門賽道今年也遭遇大幅下跌，但是估值并沒有到低估的程度。所以，買什么呢？這是第一重迷茫。

       貳 第二重--市場(chǎng)向上還是向下

       其次，對(duì)未來整體市場(chǎng)走勢(shì)的迷茫。近期，A股成交量巨大，但股指并沒有什么表現(xiàn)。有分析認(rèn)為部分原因是機(jī)構(gòu)調(diào)倉導(dǎo)致。不論原因如何，如果根據(jù)以往的經(jīng)驗(yàn)，成交量放大一定會(huì)伴隨股指的上漲。而這一次卻與以往不同。未來整體市場(chǎng)的方向是向上還是向下？這是第二重迷茫。

       叁  第三重--經(jīng)濟(jì)怎么樣？

       最后，對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)的迷茫。8月份的領(lǐng)先經(jīng)濟(jì)指標(biāo)包括官方制造業(yè)和非制造業(yè)采購經(jīng)理人指數(shù)以及財(cái)新制造業(yè)和非制造業(yè)采購經(jīng)理人指數(shù)均低于預(yù)期。雖然疫情的沖擊是一部分原因，但是經(jīng)濟(jì)趨勢(shì)下行也是明確的趨勢(shì)。市場(chǎng)關(guān)心的一方面是此次經(jīng)濟(jì)下行的幅度會(huì)達(dá)到多少；另一方面，支持性政策何時(shí)出臺(tái)以及政策的力度會(huì)有多大。這些都影響投資者對(duì)板塊的配置以及個(gè)股的選擇。此為第三重迷茫。

       肆 投資未來

       重重迷茫之下如何選擇好的投資機(jī)會(huì)呢？首先，投資人要清楚投資是投資未來。選擇低估值并且未來基本面有催化劑的品種是不錯(cuò)的選擇。即使參與熱門賽道，也要選擇基本面扎實(shí)并且估值有業(yè)績支撐的股票。適用于成長股的一個(gè)估值方法是PEG，即市盈率與公司業(yè)績?cè)鏊俚谋戎?。一般這個(gè)業(yè)績?cè)鏊倏梢赃x取過去三年的年平均利潤增速。如果PEG大于1，股票的估值較較高。反之，股票具有投資價(jià)值。

      伍 縮減債券購買似乎漸行漸遠(yuǎn)

       美國8月份非農(nóng)就業(yè)數(shù)據(jù)大幅低于預(yù)期。市場(chǎng)降低9月美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)宣布縮減債券購買計(jì)劃的預(yù)期，而期望在11或12月份宣布縮減債券。但如果美國疫情一波一波又一波，何時(shí)能夠開啟縮減債券恐怕會(huì)變得遙遙無期。

I. The first haziness 

There is three-type haziness among investors. The first is that investors are confused about what to buy. Those sectors in hot good-tracks are valued at hefty levels and are faced with risks of falling sharply at a sudden. As a matter of fact some stocks in chips and new energy sector did correct over the last couple of weeks. Those in traditional sectors are valued at historical low levels. However, with the economy going down it might take some time for these sectors to perform. 

II. The second haziness 

The second is that which direction the general market would go, up or down. Recently trading volume is huge. Yet different from the previous periods stock index did not move much. Some analysts owe this to that institutional investors are transferring positions from high-valued sectors to low-valued sectors. No matter what caused this phenomenon, investors want to wait until market chooses its direction and then buy stocks. 

III. The third haziness 

The last but not the least is that investors are confused about the economy direction. While the overall economy is on a downwards trend,investors want to know how much it would come down and when the supporting policies could come out and at what scale. 

IV. To invest in the future 

The triple haziness implies big uncertainties of stock market. It is undoubtedly very challenging to do investment amid uncertainty. We suggest investors to remember that investment is to invest in the future. And it would work well in any kind of situations to buy those undervalued stocks with fundamentals to improve in the future. For those who love growth stocks, a valuation matrix might help you. This is called PEG,which is price-to-earnings ratio divided by compound annual growth rate of earnings over the last two years. If PEG is bigger than 1, then the stock lacks investment value. If it is lower than 1, then the stock has investment value.

V. Taper is endless to come

August non-farm payroll in the US came in much lower than expected. The probability that the Fed would announce taper in November or December has increased. However, if the pandemic in the US goes on one wave after another,  it might be difficult for the Fed to taper in the foreseeable future.

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