壹 護(hù)城河是指什么？
1999年，沃倫巴菲特在《財富》雜志發(fā)表了一篇文章，談到了護(hù)城河，并指出“被寬闊的、長流不息的護(hù)城河所保護(hù)的產(chǎn)品或服務(wù)能夠?yàn)橥顿Y者帶來烽火的回報”。企業(yè)的護(hù)城河包括無形資產(chǎn)（品牌、專利和監(jiān)管牌照）、成本優(yōu)勢、顧客粘性、規(guī)模效應(yīng)和進(jìn)入壁壘等方面。
貳 護(hù)城河五要素
無形資產(chǎn)和成本優(yōu)勢都比較好理解。顧客粘性在很大程度上是指顧客使用產(chǎn)品的轉(zhuǎn)換成本。如果轉(zhuǎn)換成本很高，一般顧客很難轉(zhuǎn)換。比如一些手機(jī)零部件生產(chǎn)企業(yè)，通常在手機(jī)品牌商開始設(shè)計產(chǎn)品時就參與進(jìn)來，這種情況下被換掉的概率較低。當(dāng)然也不排除表現(xiàn)不太好的被淘汰的可能性。規(guī)模效應(yīng)就是指增加新的客戶對企業(yè)帶來的額外生產(chǎn)成本是遞減的。通常，規(guī)模越大，企業(yè)的生產(chǎn)成本越低。當(dāng)然規(guī)模效應(yīng)是有邊界的。比如養(yǎng)奶牛的牧場可能幾千頭是合適的規(guī)模。萬頭牧場所帶來的環(huán)境污染以及對草場的壓力就會大很多，所以，規(guī)模大反而不經(jīng)濟(jì)，適度最好。進(jìn)入壁壘通常是指巨額的資本投入或銷售費(fèi)用的投入。比如芯片行業(yè)的投資動輒上千億美金，這就帶來了很大的進(jìn)入壁壘。
叁 護(hù)城河被打破了？
如果一家公司能夠通過競爭優(yōu)勢，維持至少10年賺取超額收益的能力，則該公司擁有比較寬廣的護(hù)城河。但護(hù)城河不是靜態(tài)的，而是動態(tài)發(fā)展的。年初至今，一些擁有寬廣護(hù)城河的公司跌幅較大。他們的護(hù)城河被打破了嗎？護(hù)城河其實(shí)沒有被打破，但某些方面確實(shí)變得不那么具有競爭力了。比如一家醫(yī)藥公司，其研發(fā)費(fèi)用占收入的比例一直保持在雙位數(shù)，研發(fā)能力保持在市場前列。但是，由于藥品集采失利，研發(fā)能力無法體現(xiàn)到盈利上，導(dǎo)致企業(yè)的業(yè)績低迷，被投資者拋售。再比如一家食品飲料公司，其品牌優(yōu)勢明顯，但是由于產(chǎn)品價格高企導(dǎo)致客戶粘性下降，市場擔(dān)心這會影響未來的成長性。因此，有了護(hù)城河并不是一勞永逸，企業(yè)還需要不斷地努力以保持護(hù)城河的寬度和深度。否則，就有短期股價大幅調(diào)整的風(fēng)險。
肆 全球股市上漲
A股和港股在消費(fèi)醫(yī)藥股帶領(lǐng)下大幅反彈，美股因勞動節(jié)休市。8月份中國經(jīng)濟(jì)數(shù)據(jù)即將發(fā)布，值得關(guān)注。
I. What is the moat?
In 1999 Warren Buffett published a famous article in Fortune magazine, in which he pointed out that a company with a broad moat that can last for a long time can make a lot of money for investors. The so-called moat of a company includes intangible assets such as brands, patents and supervision rules, cost advantage, viscosity of customers, scale effects and entry barriers.
II. Five elements of a moat
Intangible assets and cost advantage are easy to understand. A type of viscosity of customers refers to the high costs for a customer to shift to another producer or service provider. A case in point is in mobile components and parts producers. They usually participate in the mobile phone design of mobile brands from the beginning and adjust their production accordingly. Mobile brands would face big cost to shift to other components and parts producers. Scale effects are also familiar to investors. Yet scale effects have boundaries. It is not the truth that the bigger the scale the better the results. Take the example of raising milk cows, a couple of thousands milk cows have scale effects. But 10 thousand orabove would cause environmental issues and put a pressure to the grasslands. A type of entry barriers refer to big capital expenditure. This is especially true in foundry sector, in which US$ 100 billion capital expenditure is not unusual.
III. The moat can change
The moat is not static but changes from time to time. Year-to-date stock prices of some companies with broad moats have fallen sharply, implying that their moats are not strong in some aspects. Take the example of an innovative drug producer it has maintained its research and development cost to its sales ratio at double digits for years and enjoy competitive advantages in innovation drugs. However, due to that it lost in bids to national mass procurement of drugs its innovation advantage can not be turned into profits. In summary a company should make efforts to maintain its moat as long as possible.
IV. Global stock markets rose
A share and HK stocks rose.Healthcare and food and beverage sector led the rally. The US stock market closed for Labor Day holiday.
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