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       壹 上一輪超級周期

      大宗商品的超級周期是指大宗商品價格長期且大范圍的持續(xù)上漲。從上世紀初至今一共有4輪大宗商品的超級周期。最近這輪大宗商品的超級周期起始于1999年，在2008年達到最高點。之后開始了長達12年的下跌，直到2020年4月達到此輪周期的最低點。以CRB大宗商品指數(shù)衡量，CRB指數(shù)在此輪周期的上行階段累計上漲了3倍多一點，而在下行階段下跌了67%。各種商品在超級周期的上漲階段漲幅不一。原油上漲了14倍，銅上漲了6.6倍，黃金也上漲了6.6倍。但原油是2008年達到歷史高點的，而銅和黃金則是在2011年，2011年是大宗商品價格的次高點。

     貳 中國因素推動

    上一輪大宗商品的上漲主要是由于中國加入WTO之后，受益于全球化紅利，制造業(yè)投資和需求強勁增長。同時，國內(nèi)房地產(chǎn)和基建需求旺盛。這些因素一起推動了一輪大宗商品的上漲。

     叁 對此輪周期的爭議

     去年4月大宗商品價格創(chuàng)出10年左右新低之后開啟強勢上漲。一些分析師認為大宗商品超級周期卷土重來。但也有一些分析師持與之不同的觀點，認為大宗商品價格的上漲只是貨幣推升和結(jié)構(gòu)性短缺情況下的短期現(xiàn)象。由于新能源轉(zhuǎn)型還需要持續(xù)數(shù)年，其對大宗商品所產(chǎn)生的額外需求不足以推動一輪超級周期。

     肆 也許是不一樣的周期

     那么這次有沒有超級周期呢？目前為止，還看不到全球?qū)Υ笞谏唐沸枨蟮膹妱旁鲩L。但隨著各國經(jīng)濟復(fù)蘇，對大宗商品的需求也在溫和復(fù)蘇。同時，大宗商品價格在經(jīng)過數(shù)年的下跌之后，產(chǎn)能已經(jīng)去化到較低的水平。而疫情對大宗商品的供給又產(chǎn)生了抑制作用。因此，我們判斷此輪大宗商品的價格取決于邊際供給和需求的變化。這可能是此輪大宗商品超級周期（如有）區(qū)別于以前超級周期的地方。

      伍 市場綜述

      A股上漲，港股下跌。港股互聯(lián)網(wǎng)企業(yè)因被約談而大幅下跌，帶動整體市場大幅調(diào)整。港股當前估值處在歷史較低水平，我們認為投資價值已經(jīng)顯現(xiàn)。具體請參見現(xiàn)在可以開始和港股做時間的朋友。中國8月消費者價格指數(shù)同比低于預(yù)期，因生豬價格繼續(xù)回落。而生產(chǎn)者價格指數(shù)同比上漲超預(yù)期。市場對滯漲擔憂加劇，黃金股票在數(shù)據(jù)公布后上漲，大宗商品股票全天領(lǐng)漲A股和港股。因投資人擔憂經(jīng)濟增長前景，美國股票連續(xù)第四天下跌。但上周初次申請失業(yè)救濟人數(shù)回到2020年3月時的水平，顯示就業(yè)恢復(fù)良好。

I. The last super cycle 

The super cycle of commodities refers to that commodity prices rise for a long period and across the board. There have been four super cycles of commodities since the beginning of last century. The most recent super cycle started in 1999 and reached the peak levels of prices in 2008. CRB commodity index rose more than 300% over this period and then began a 12-year decline until April 2020, when it finally reached the lowest point of this cycle and fell 67% in total. All of the commodities rose during the rising period of the super cycle but at different range. Oil rose 1500% from 1999 to 2008 when it reached the highest price at US$147 per barrel. Copper and gold rose 600% respectively but reached the highest point in 2011, which saw the high of CRB Index only second to the peak in 2008.

II. China drove the last cycle

This recent super cycle was driven by China demand. In 2001 China joined WTO and began to take part in global trade and manufacturing. This promoted investment in manufacturing. Moreover, with the economy booming demand for infrastructure and property also rose fast. All of these helped a super cycle of commodity. 

III. Likely a different cycle 

Currently we do not see the strong demand for commodity as that in the last super cycle. However, with 10-year plus commodity prices decline, commodity production capacity has been cut off to relatively low levels. Moreover, pandemic disrupted commodity production from time to time. Yet with the economy recovery from the pandemic going on the demand for commodity is increasing at a moderate rate. So this time if there is a commodity super cycle, it would be determined by the marginal changes of supply and demand. This might be the difference of this super cycle from the previous ones. 

IV. Market summary

A share rose while HK stocks fell. HK stocks fellsharply as gaming and media companies were summoned by government. We have pointed out that HK stocks are valued at low levels from history. And it might be a good timing to bottom fish in the HK market. The US DOW fell for the fourth day in a row as investors worried about Delta variant. The European Central Bank announced that it would slow the pace of pandemic bond-buying program in 4Q2021. 

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