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        貳 幅度也許有限

       當(dāng)然匯率不僅與貨幣流動(dòng)性相對(duì)強(qiáng)弱有關(guān)，也受到兩國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的相對(duì)強(qiáng)弱影響。從經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的角度看，美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)很有可能在3季度達(dá)到此輪增長(zhǎng)的頂點(diǎn)，此后將會(huì)下行。而中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)在今年3月份達(dá)到增長(zhǎng)的頂點(diǎn)，此后就開(kāi)始下行。從庫(kù)存周期的角度看，美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)的下行周期通常在12個(gè)月。因此，明年3季度大概率是美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)的最低點(diǎn)。而從歷史看，中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)下行周期通常持續(xù)一到兩年，因此經(jīng)濟(jì)增速的最低點(diǎn)最快有可能在明年2季度觸及，最晚有可能在2023年達(dá)到（具體請(qǐng)參見(jiàn)2021年A股投資展望，其中對(duì)中美兩國(guó)的庫(kù)存周期有比較詳細(xì)的論述）。所以，未來(lái)中美兩國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)都可能處在下行階段中。綜合考慮，美元上行的幅度可能是有限的，意味著人民幣貶值的空間也不會(huì)很大。

        叁 中國(guó)支持性政策不斷出臺(tái)

        近期國(guó)家出臺(tái)各種政策以支持經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展。社融增速可能在年底之前同比增速會(huì)持續(xù)下行，但廣義貨幣同比增速觸底應(yīng)該是大概率事件。雖然未來(lái)隨著經(jīng)濟(jì)增速再下臺(tái)階，廣義貨幣有可能會(huì)再次突破8%的最低同比增速水平，但這應(yīng)該是一個(gè)平緩的過(guò)程，近期不會(huì)看到。政策支持下，經(jīng)濟(jì)應(yīng)不會(huì)太差，股市還有很多機(jī)會(huì)。

       肆 美股和A股今年表現(xiàn)差異較大

       進(jìn)入9月份，各家投行紛紛下調(diào)標(biāo)普500年底前的目標(biāo)價(jià)，認(rèn)為在新冠疫情的沖擊下，美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)將會(huì)走弱，美股年底前或面臨10%左右的調(diào)整。但年初以來(lái)我國(guó)資本市場(chǎng)與美股的表現(xiàn)差異巨大，美股如調(diào)整對(duì)A股和港股市場(chǎng)的沖擊應(yīng)是有限的。

       伍 上周市場(chǎng)綜述

     上周A股和港股在全球漲幅居前。上證指數(shù)和深成指分別上漲4.2%和3.4%，在全球16個(gè)主要國(guó)家和地區(qū)指數(shù)漲幅居第2和第3位。美股道指連續(xù)下跌5天。

I.The US dollar would appreciate 

Market now expects that the Federal Reserve would announce taper at the FOMC on Sept 22nd this year and begin to implement it before the end of this year. In the mean time many analysts predicted that the People's Bank of China would cut bank reserve rate in October to boost the slowing economy. So China and the US would diverge in monetary policy with the US to strengthen it while China to loosen it. In this case the US dollar would appreciate and the RMB would depreciate. In “This time could be different(這次也許不一樣)” we have pointed out that due to the high inflation the real interest rate in the US might be maintained at low levels. Hence, the US dollar would not appreciate as much as previous. 

II.But not that much

But how much the US dollar appreciates and the RMB depreciates also depends on the economy growth rate of the US and China. China’s economy reached its peak level in March this year and the US economy is expected to reach the top in 3Q2021. After that both China and the US economy would come down for some time. In the US the economy slow-down in an inventory cycle usually takes 12 months, i.e., the US economy would likely reach its lowest point of growth rate in 3Q2022. And China’s economy would take one or two years to get to the bottom, which is 1H2022 or early 2023. In short economy growth rate does not support a very strong US dollar as well as a very weak RMB. 

III. A-share would not go down with the US stocks

Moreover, China has implemented many policies to stimulate economy. The broad monetary supply(M2)  growth rate has been at a very low level and would not go further lower in the near term. Fiscal policies are becoming more accomodative. Recently many houses in the US downgraded SP 500 price target at the end of this year due to Delta variant and the likely taper.Yet year-to-date the US and China stock markets performed quite differently. We do not expect that the US market correction would have a negative impact on both A-share and HK stock markets.

IV. A-share and HK stocks led the global markets last week

Both A-share and HK stocks rose last week. Among the 16 major indexes globally Shanghai Composite Index and Shenzhen Composite Index were ranked at the second the third in terms of rise range. 

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