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        壹 康波是什么？

        在上世紀(jì)二十年代，前蘇聯(lián)學(xué)者尼古拉·康德拉季耶夫提出，在資本主義經(jīng)濟(jì)生活中存在著45~60年的長(zhǎng)期波動(dòng)。這種長(zhǎng)期波動(dòng)被人們稱為康德拉季耶夫周期，也稱康波，它通常對(duì)應(yīng)著技術(shù)創(chuàng)新。一位已故著名經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家曾經(jīng)說過“人生發(fā)財(cái)靠康波”的名言，使康波深入人心。

        貳 康波在中國(guó)宋代

        《白銀資本》的作者德國(guó)人貢德·弗蘭克研究發(fā)現(xiàn)其實(shí)在中國(guó)宋代就存在康波。從930年到1250年共320年間，中國(guó)一共經(jīng)歷了4個(gè)連續(xù)的康波，分別對(duì)應(yīng)著印刷術(shù)和造紙術(shù)，這都是中國(guó)人的創(chuàng)新。

        叁 中國(guó)是創(chuàng)新主導(dǎo)國(guó)

        雖然有學(xué)者認(rèn)為宋代之后技術(shù)創(chuàng)新轉(zhuǎn)移到了歐洲，但弗蘭克認(rèn)為事實(shí)并非如此。第5個(gè)到第12個(gè)康德拉季耶夫周期分別對(duì)應(yīng)著黑海貿(mào)易、威尼斯大帆船艦隊(duì)、胡椒、幾內(nèi)亞黃金、印度香料、波羅的海-大西洋貿(mào)易。第13 和14個(gè)周期分別對(duì)應(yīng)著種植園和美洲-亞洲貿(mào)易。在5-14個(gè)康德拉季耶夫周期中，弗蘭克認(rèn)為第6-14個(gè)周期除了幾內(nèi)亞黃金和波羅的海-大西洋貿(mào)易，其余的康波都與中國(guó)有關(guān)。歐洲的創(chuàng)新是歐洲人爭(zhēng)取從亞洲的經(jīng)濟(jì)活動(dòng)中心謀取好處的漫長(zhǎng)努力的反應(yīng)，是中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)滲透發(fā)揮的作用。康波中有主導(dǎo)國(guó)和創(chuàng)新的提法。無疑，中國(guó)在宋代始的幾個(gè)世紀(jì)都應(yīng)該是世界創(chuàng)新的主導(dǎo)國(guó)。第6個(gè)周期開始于1250年，第14個(gè)周期開始于1688年，結(jié)束于1740年。因此，中國(guó)至少在17世紀(jì)之前都是世界的經(jīng)濟(jì)和貿(mào)易中心。

        肆 衰落是暫時(shí)的

       由于中國(guó)在瓷器、絲綢和茶葉市場(chǎng)上的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)優(yōu)勢(shì)，直到19世紀(jì)初中國(guó)還保持貿(mào)易順差。瓷器的英文CHINA也就是中國(guó)的意思，也在一定程度上印證了中國(guó)當(dāng)時(shí)的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)優(yōu)勢(shì)。弗蘭克認(rèn)為由于中國(guó)的生產(chǎn)效率、人口增長(zhǎng)速度和制度優(yōu)勢(shì)使得其在歷史上長(zhǎng)久保持世界中心的地位。中國(guó)在19世紀(jì)和20世紀(jì)的衰落只是歷史長(zhǎng)河中的短暫一瞬，終將重新引領(lǐng)世界。

      伍 市場(chǎng)綜述

      A股上漲，港股下跌。港股科技股下挫，因政府要求美團(tuán)等平臺(tái)企業(yè)保障勞動(dòng)者權(quán)益。周期股領(lǐng)漲兩市。美股道指和標(biāo)普500上漲，結(jié)束了連續(xù)5個(gè)交易日的下跌。美國(guó)新冠7天平均新增病例環(huán)比前一周下跌。但上周五發(fā)布的8月份生產(chǎn)價(jià)格指數(shù)同比上漲8.3%，為2010年10月以來的最高漲幅。周二晚將會(huì)發(fā)布8月份消費(fèi)者價(jià)格指數(shù)數(shù)據(jù)。

I. What is Kondratiev cycle? 

Kondratiev cycle was brought up by Russia famous economist Nikolai Kondratiev. It refers to a long economic cycle that can last up to 40-60 years and is usually caused by technology innovation. A reknown economist in China ever said that one can only make a fortune by relying on Kondratiev cycle. 

II.Kondratiev cycle in China

Gunder Frank, a Germany economist, wrote in his popular book “Reorient-Global Economy in the Asian Age” that Kondratiev cycles had existed in China since the Song Dynasty. From 930 to 1250 there were four Kondratiev cycles in China,which corresponded to printing and paper-making technology innovation. The following 5th to 12th Kondratiev cycle corresponded to trade in Black Sea, Venetian galleon, pepper, Guinea gold, perfume in India, and trade between Baltic Sea and the Atlantic. The 13th and 14th Kondratiev cycle was caused by plantation and trade between the America and Asia. 

III. China had long been the centre of innovation

Frank considered that except Guinea gold and trade between the Baltic Sea and the Atlantic, the other Kondratiev cycles were related with China. So he refuted the idea that innovation centre shifted to Europe after the Song Dynasty and believed that China has remained as the world economic center until the 18thcentury. China has enjoyed competitive advantage in production efficiency,population growth and advanced rules and arrangements. As a matter of fact China had maintained its competitive advantage in china, silk and tea and enjoyed trade surplus until early 1900s. Frank believed that China has long been the center of the world economy and innovation and considered that the setbacks in the 19th and 20th century as a short-term phenomenon. He expects China to come back soon. So do we.

IV. Market summary

A-share rose while HK stocks fell.Internet platform companies such as Meituan fell sharply on Monday as government required these companies to provide social security welfare to their employees. DOW and SP 500 rose, snapping a five-day losing streak. The average 7-day COVID-19 new cases last week fell week-on-week.

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