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       壹 美國8月通脹回落

        美國8月份的消費者價格指數(shù)同比和環(huán)比漲幅均低于預(yù)期: 同比上漲5.3%，預(yù)期5.4%；環(huán)比上漲0.3%，預(yù)期0.4%。7月份消費者價格指數(shù)環(huán)比上漲0.5%，8月的環(huán)比漲幅較7月份也是回落的。但消費者價格指數(shù)的回落可能受到疫情的影響，因為飛機票價和酒店住宿價格分別較7月份下跌9.1%和3.3%。這也意味著一旦疫情好轉(zhuǎn)，這些價格很可能再度上漲。

       貳 美國消費領(lǐng)域通脹更重要

      上周五發(fā)布的美國生產(chǎn)者價格指數(shù)同比漲幅超市場預(yù)期。作為一個消費占GDP比重高達(dá)80%的國家，市場對美國消費者價格指數(shù)的關(guān)注程度遠(yuǎn)高于生產(chǎn)者價格指數(shù)，制造業(yè)在美國經(jīng)濟中占比僅為12%。

       叁 我國生產(chǎn)領(lǐng)域通脹影響更大

       作為一個制造大國，原材料上漲對我國經(jīng)濟產(chǎn)生重大影響。因此，生產(chǎn)者價格指數(shù)的漲幅為政府和市場所關(guān)注。上周公布的我國8月生產(chǎn)者價格指數(shù)的同比漲幅達(dá)到2008年8月以來最高水平，從環(huán)比看還有加速上升的態(tài)勢。我國消費者價格指數(shù)的漲幅當(dāng)然也很重要。但一方面由于我國消費者價格指數(shù)在相當(dāng)程度上是豬指數(shù)，而豬肉價格從今年年初以來持續(xù)下跌。因此，消費者價格指數(shù)同比漲幅一直保持在較低水平。另外，由于貨幣政策的松緊程度一定程度上受到消費者價格指數(shù)的制約。歷史上看，只要消費者價格指數(shù)同比漲幅超過3%，貨幣政策就會傾向于收緊。

       肆 原材料價格可能長期保持高位

       近期，有研究表明鋁的供應(yīng)在未來五年不可能有大幅度改善，電解鋁的價格有可能長時間保持在較高水平。周二澳大利亞鋰精礦拍賣價格大幅超出市場預(yù)期，也再次點燃了新能源電池板塊的行情。種種跡象表明，幾乎所有上游原材料都受到供應(yīng)方面的制約，價格會較長時間維持在較高水平。原材料價格上漲向下游傳導(dǎo)需6-9個月的時間?？紤]到上游原材料價格從今年年初開始就處在較高水平，消費者價格指數(shù)的上漲可能為期不遠(yuǎn)了。因此，通脹的回落也許僅是暫時的，上漲可能是長期的。

       伍 市場綜述

      A股和港股均下跌。前期表現(xiàn)強勢的周期股領(lǐng)跌，醫(yī)藥消費等白馬股上漲。澳門博彩股連續(xù)第二天下跌，因政府要加強對該行業(yè)的監(jiān)管。盡管通脹回落，美股仍收跌。標(biāo)普500指數(shù)連續(xù)第六個交易日收低于開盤價，這是2020年2月以來的首次。

I. August inflation in consumer-side rose less than expected in the US 

The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) in August came in lower than expected. CPI rose 5.3% year-on-year while 0.3% month-on-month versus 5.4% and 0.4% expected. In July CPI rose 0.5% month-on-month. Part of the fall was due to airfare and hotel prices, which fell 9.1% and 3.3% month-on-month respectively.In the US consumption takes up to 80% of GDP. Hence, inflation in consumer sectors has a big impact on the overall economy. Manufacturing is only 12% of the US GDP. Hence, inflation in producers’ side is not as important as in consumer side. 

II. Inflation in producer-side in China has a bigger impact

China is different from the US. Manufacturing takes more than one-third of GDP. Hence, inflation in producers’ side has a big impact on our economy. China’s Producers Price Index in August came in higher than expected at 9.5% year-on-year. It was the largest increase from August 2008. Yet due to supply constraints upstream raw material prices would be at high levels for years. China’s CPI is related with swine prices closely. Swine prices have been falling since the beginning of this year. As a result CPI has been maintained at a low level. CPI affects monetary policies. A rule of thumb is that once CPI rises higher than 3% year-on-year China’s monetary policy would strengthen. So now it is not the time to worry about monetary policy. 

III. The inflation is to be transmitted from producers to consumers

It is estimated that price increase would be transmitted from producer-sideto consumer-side in 6 to 9 months. Raw material prices rose to high levels at the beginning of this year. Hence, in 3Q we would see cost pressure in consumer products producers. So the fall of inflation might only be temporary while the rise of inflation would last for a long time.

IV. Market summary

A-share and HK stocks fell.Cyclical stocks tumbled.Macau gaming stocks fell for the second day in consecutive as government might impose more rules in this sector for its better development. The US stocks fell across the board. The SP 500 closed lower than its opening for the sixth trading day in a row, the first time from February 2020. The US 10-year treasury yield fell below 1.3% despite that the Fed might taper soon. 

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