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       壹 港股大跌與香港地產(chǎn)商

      港股周一大跌，因受到香港地產(chǎn)和內(nèi)地金融地產(chǎn)行業(yè)的拖累?！堵吠浮吩缜耙鋈恢饕禺a(chǎn)開發(fā)商和一位知情本鋼特區(qū)政府顧問，本港開發(fā)商被告知，要運(yùn)用資源及影響力維護(hù)國家利益，更要回饋社會，協(xié)助解決住房短缺問題。

       貳 住宅供應(yīng)增加是大趨勢

      香港大地產(chǎn)商都囤積了大量土地。截止2019年底，香港五大地產(chǎn)商的土地儲備總計為660萬平米，占香港私人住宅用地面積的38.8%。香港住宅供應(yīng)增加將是未來的大趨勢。摩根·斯坦利今年4月曾發(fā)表報告稱供應(yīng)是壓抑樓價上升及令住屋可負(fù)擔(dān)的最有力工具，三個潛在解決供應(yīng)的方案為農(nóng)田轉(zhuǎn)換、填海和增加地積比。其中農(nóng)田轉(zhuǎn)換近期已有所加快，如新地收購了古洞新發(fā)展區(qū)首塊公開招標(biāo)農(nóng)地(歷時15年規(guī)劃)。

       叁 香港樓市或下跌

      摩根·斯坦利預(yù)估對地產(chǎn)商的最差情景為政府公布積極的供應(yīng)目標(biāo)，如由目前每年供應(yīng)3.5萬個增至超過10萬個，則香港樓價至明年底估計或會下跌20%。其基本情景假設(shè)為今年樓價會上升9%，明年則升5%。如果樓市下跌，則地產(chǎn)商的利潤也會承壓。香港本地開發(fā)商周一股價跌幅都在10%左右。

       肆 外資怎么看某內(nèi)地房地產(chǎn)公司

      瑞銀估計該房地產(chǎn)公司債務(wù)規(guī)模在3130億美金，其中190億美金為境外債券。貝萊德、瑞銀和匯豐是該房地產(chǎn)公司最大的境外債券持有者。周一匯豐的信貸違約掉期上升了16%。市場擔(dān)憂該公司債務(wù)問題會傳染到全球市場，甚至認(rèn)為將會影響美聯(lián)儲的貨幣政策。也有分析師認(rèn)為該公司債務(wù)只是中國的問題，政府會采用債轉(zhuǎn)股等方式解決。彭博社報道，部分銀行已經(jīng)為該公司的倒閉做好了準(zhǔn)備，通過計提壞賬準(zhǔn)備等。凱投宏觀分析師認(rèn)為從中國政府處理包商銀行和2015年股災(zāi)和貨幣貶值事件中可以看出，中國政府會允許短暫的金融混亂，但最終都會出手平息大規(guī)模的債務(wù)拖欠。

       伍 市場綜述

      周一歐美市場也大幅下跌，也側(cè)面反應(yīng)了投資者對風(fēng)險傳染的擔(dān)憂。美聯(lián)儲的議息會議結(jié)果將會在周三出爐，市場在不安中等待其是否會開啟縮減債券購買計劃的消息。截止上周五，美股已連跌三周，有分析師認(rèn)為當(dāng)前為買入良機(jī)。

I. HK market crashed

HK market crashed on Monday. One reason is that HK local property developers were told to contribute to the welfare of society and could not maintain their monopolistic positions. This means that they would not have the high margin as previously. All of the HK property developers' stocks fell at around -10%. 

II. Housing supply is to increase 

Both analysts from JP Morgan and Morgan Stanley believed that the best way to contain the high housing prices were to increase supply. The property developers have a big land reserve. By the end of 2019 the five largest property developers have a land reserve at 660 square meters,which is 38.8% of the total land supply for private housing market. The increase of housing supply is certain in the future.

III. Housing prices to fall

Morgan Stanley estimated that if government can increase property supply from current 35,000 to 100,000 the housing prices would drop 20%. But the base case scenario they assume is that housing prices would increase 9% this year and then 5% in2022. 

IV. International investors view a Chinese property company differently

UBS estimated that the property developer had US$313 billion debt with US$19 billion off-shore bond. Blackrock,UBS and HSBC are the largest off-shore bond holders of the company. HSBC’s Credit Default Swap, a derivative that measures risk of default, rose 16% on Monday. Some analysts worried that the debt issue would spread to the US and even make the Fed delay tapering. Others believed that this would be strictly a China issue.

V. Still no consensus so far 

Capital Economics thought that Chinese government would allow temporary crisis in financial conditions but would intervene in case of large-scale default.They judged this from both Baoshang Bank and the drop of equities and RMB currency in 2015. There is no consensus on this issue. Market is waiting for news on restructuring in the coming weeks. The European and the US market also crashed. Investors wait for the results of the FOMC, which will conclude on Wednesday

聲明：本市場點(diǎn)評由北京楓瑞資產(chǎn)管理有限公司（以下簡稱“楓瑞資產(chǎn)”）“楓瑞視點(diǎn)”微信公眾號提供和擁有版權(quán)，授權(quán)上海海獅資產(chǎn)管理有限公司轉(zhuǎn)載。在任何情況下文中信息或所表述的意見不構(gòu)成對任何人的投資建議，楓瑞資產(chǎn)不對任何人因使用本文中的內(nèi)容所引發(fā)的損失負(fù)任何責(zé)任。未經(jīng)楓瑞資產(chǎn)書面授權(quán)，本文中的內(nèi)容均不得以任何侵犯楓瑞資產(chǎn)版權(quán)的方式使用和轉(zhuǎn)載。市場有風(fēng)險，投資需謹(jǐn)慎。