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       壹 股市長(zhǎng)牛的基礎(chǔ)

      美國(guó)二戰(zhàn)之后股市長(zhǎng)牛的基礎(chǔ)是科技創(chuàng)新?！秳蛎绹?guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)史》第三卷分析了美國(guó)二戰(zhàn)后的科技創(chuàng)新。一個(gè)很重要的推動(dòng)者是美國(guó)二戰(zhàn)時(shí)期最著名的科學(xué)家和工程師之一和“曼哈頓計(jì)劃”的提出者范內(nèi)瓦·布什。他在1945年的報(bào)告《科學(xué)：永無(wú)止境的領(lǐng)域》中指出基礎(chǔ)研究是經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的最終源泉，提倡建立獨(dú)立的聯(lián)邦管理機(jī)構(gòu)，負(fù)責(zé)所有國(guó)防和非國(guó)防領(lǐng)域的基礎(chǔ)研究方面的投資，建議基礎(chǔ)軍事研究的發(fā)展方向是民用研究。

       貳 美國(guó)聯(lián)邦政府大力投入基礎(chǔ)研究

      二戰(zhàn)后，美國(guó)聯(lián)邦在國(guó)家研發(fā)總投資中占比巨大。1945到1969年，當(dāng)時(shí)世界上除美國(guó)外最大的四個(gè)工業(yè)國(guó)家--德國(guó)、法國(guó)、英國(guó)和日本在研究與開發(fā)上的累計(jì)總投資為11.3萬(wàn)億美元，而美國(guó)為25.6萬(wàn)億美元。1995年，聯(lián)邦政府投入到基礎(chǔ)研究中的資金占總投資的58%。

        叁  大學(xué)在基礎(chǔ)研究中發(fā)揮重要作用

        大學(xué)作為基礎(chǔ)研究項(xiàng)目的承擔(dān)者的重要性也提升了。統(tǒng)計(jì)顯示，1996年美國(guó)大學(xué)承擔(dān)了美國(guó)61%的基礎(chǔ)研究項(xiàng)目。而新興的小型公司在戰(zhàn)后美國(guó)創(chuàng)新體制中發(fā)揮了重要作用。這主要是因?yàn)榇髮W(xué)、政府和不少私營(yíng)企業(yè)建立的大型基礎(chǔ)研究部門孕育了技術(shù)創(chuàng)新，這些技術(shù)隨著研究人員創(chuàng)立公司并將其商業(yè)化而走向社會(huì)。這種現(xiàn)象在生物技術(shù)、計(jì)算機(jī)和微電子領(lǐng)域特別明顯。這些新興公司的發(fā)展也離不開完備的私人融資體制，美國(guó)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)資本從20世紀(jì)50年代開始就對(duì)從事新興技術(shù)的公司進(jìn)行投資。

       肆 我國(guó)研發(fā)投入有提升空間

     對(duì)比美股，A股的長(zhǎng)牛也離不開科技創(chuàng)新。2020年，我國(guó)在研發(fā)的投資為2.44萬(wàn)億人民幣，占GDP比例在2.4%。2019年，發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家中研發(fā)占GDP比例最高的為韓國(guó)，為4.6%，其次為德國(guó)和日本，占比為3.2%，美國(guó)的占比為3.1%。但我國(guó)在基礎(chǔ)研究方面的投入占比較低。2020年，我國(guó)在基礎(chǔ)研發(fā)的投入為1504億人民幣，占總體研發(fā)投入的比例為6.2%，而美國(guó)這個(gè)比例約為15%。因此，我國(guó)無(wú)論在總體研發(fā)和基礎(chǔ)研究的投入上都有較大提升空間。而中小公司也會(huì)在科技創(chuàng)新中發(fā)揮重要作用，專精特新小巨人是經(jīng)濟(jì)長(zhǎng)青的基礎(chǔ)和股市長(zhǎng)牛的一個(gè)重要支柱。

       伍 市場(chǎng)綜述

       A股上漲，美股大漲。美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)九月議息會(huì)議結(jié)束，宣布縮減債券購(gòu)買計(jì)劃將很快就會(huì)來(lái)到。市場(chǎng)預(yù)期聯(lián)儲(chǔ)11月份縮減債券購(gòu)買計(jì)劃，12月份實(shí)施。

I. The foundation of a long bull market

The long bull markets of the US stocks were supported by technology innovation. In the Cambridge Economic History of the United States (Volume III), authors analyzed the innovation of the US after World War II. Vannevar Bush, who is one of the most famous scientists and engineers in the US during WWII and brought up Mahhattan Plan, pointed out in his “Science: The endless frontier” that basic study is the source of economic growth and suggested to set up an independent agency to shoulder the investment in both military and civil basic study. He also suggested that basic study in military should be applied to civil use. 

II. The federal government invested big in basic study

After WWII, the federal government invested huge in basic study. From 1945 to 1969 the most avanced nations in the world at that time including France, Germany, the UK and Japan invested a total of US$ 11.3 trillion. As a comparison the US invested US$ 25.6 trillion. In 1996 the federal government contributed 58% of the total investment in basic study. 

III. Universities played a key role in basic study

Universities rose as a key role in basic study. In 1996 universities took up 61% of all of the basic study activities. Small companies contributed a lot to innovation, especially in medicine, electronic and computer sector. The reason is that those researchers in the universities brought their study results to commercial use by setting up small companies. Venture capital helped these start-ups a lot. 

IV. China's R&D investment has room to increase 

China’s research and development was 2.4% of GDP in 2020. Compared with 4.6% of South Korea, 3.2% of Germany and Japan and 3.2% of the US in 2019 our R&D has room to further increase. Moreover, our investment in basic study was only 6% of total R&D in 2020, compared with 15% of the US. We expect that the specialized, fined, peculiar and innovative little giants in China would also contribute to innovation and economic growth, just as their counter parties in the US. A long bull market with science as the solid foundation in A share would not be too far away. 

V. Market summary  

A share rose while the US stocks rallied.The September FOMC concluded and the Fed announced that tapering would come soon. Market expects the Fed to announce it in November and begin to execute it in December. 

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