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       壹 通脹對政府還債是有好處的

       美國上世紀(jì)經(jīng)歷了兩次大規(guī)模的通脹，一次是20世紀(jì)40年代末，一次是60年代，發(fā)展到70年代成為有名的滯漲。通脹其實(shí)對政府償還負(fù)債和利息都有很大幫助。根據(jù)《劍橋美國經(jīng)濟(jì)史》第三卷，1950年美國聯(lián)邦債務(wù)占國民生產(chǎn)總值的比重為89.7%，占財(cái)政收入的比重為334%，而利息支付占財(cái)政收入的比重為11%。而通脹相當(dāng)于向聯(lián)邦債務(wù)的債權(quán)人以及聯(lián)邦債券的持有者征收了高稅率。通脹高企意味著名義收入快速增長，因此個人需要按照更高的稅率納稅。美國利用這些多征收的稅支付了朝鮮戰(zhàn)爭和越南戰(zhàn)爭的開支。同時，快速上漲的通脹使實(shí)際利率降到很低的水平，有時甚至達(dá)到負(fù)利率區(qū)間。由于較低的實(shí)際利率，聯(lián)邦政府的利息占財(cái)政收入的比例在40年代下降到14%以下。之后持續(xù)下降，到80年代維持在10%以下。

       貳 關(guān)注利息負(fù)擔(dān)而不是債務(wù)總額

       新冠疫情之后，美國政府大規(guī)模放水導(dǎo)致通脹高企。這些通脹對美國支付巨額債務(wù)利息無疑也是有很大幫助的。由于實(shí)際利率有可能長期為負(fù)（具體請參見這次也許不一樣），美國政府需要支付的利息負(fù)擔(dān)可以說是微不足道。美國財(cái)政部長耶倫在其任命的聽證會上就指出：不要考慮負(fù)債總額，要看利息負(fù)擔(dān)。利息負(fù)擔(dān)的一個衡量指標(biāo)是國債利息占GDP的比例。耶倫指出，由于低利率，當(dāng)前美國的利息負(fù)擔(dān)并不比2008年時候高。美國國債自2008年金融危機(jī)發(fā)生后直到新冠疫情之前已經(jīng)從10萬億美金上漲到20萬億美金。美國政府依據(jù)現(xiàn)代貨幣理論解決新冠危機(jī)，以國家信用印鈔票。截止2020年底，美國國家總負(fù)債上漲到26.9萬億美元。正如加州大學(xué)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)教授羅伯特·溫特布勞所言：美元是我們的貨幣，但卻是你們的問題。

       叁 美元確實(shí)是新興市場的問題

       近期，因美聯(lián)儲要縮表，新興市場國家不斷加息，以應(yīng)對國內(nèi)由于美元放水導(dǎo)致的通脹壓力以及美元流動性縮減造成的資本外流壓力。資本外流沖擊對我國沖擊有限，但是通脹確實(shí)是對我國經(jīng)濟(jì)和民生都造成了影響。如何解決通脹也是我們面臨的一個難題。

        肆 也許是貝爾斯登時刻，而非雷曼時刻

       A股上漲，美股連續(xù)第二天大漲。美聯(lián)儲縮減債券購買計(jì)劃符合市場預(yù)期，同時對中國某地產(chǎn)公司的擔(dān)憂也大大緩解。市場意識到這也許是貝爾斯登時刻，但不是雷曼時刻。

I.High inflation means less debt burden

The US experienced mass-scale inflation in the 1940s and1960s. The inflation in the 1960s later led to stagflation in the 1970s. Inflation is actually good for governments to pay principal and interest as high inflation means higher taxes for those debtors of the government debt and holders of treasury. According to the Cambridge Economic History of the United States (Volume III), the US federal debt was 89.7% of GNP and 334% of fiscal revenue and the interest to be paid was 11% of fiscal revenue in 1950. Due to the high inflation the real interest was quite low and some times even negative. The ratio of interest to be paid to fiscal revenue came down to 14% in the 1940s. It kept going down to below 10% by the 1980s. Moreover, high inflation means that personal nominal income would rise fast to higher tax rate in progressive income tax system. The higher tax revenue supported both Korea War and Vietnam War. 

II. The key is interest burden not the total debt scale

In this COVID-19 crises, the US printed a lot of money, which caused inflation worldwide. But real interest rate would be maintained at very low levels due to the high inflation (details can be found in our previous article "這次也許不一樣". Yellen,the Minister of Finance, pointed out in her nomination testimony to the congress that the ratio of interest to be paid to fiscal revenue is the key in evaluating debt burden and debt scale was not important. Before COVID-19 crises the US federal and local government debt has doubled since 2008 global financial crises from US$10 trillion to 20 trillion. It shot up to US$26.9 trillion by the end of 2020. 

III. The US dollar is the developing nations' issue

Just as the economic professor from California University Robert Winterblau said: the US dollar is our currency but your issues. Recently developing countries have increased interest rates to defend both igh inflation and capital outflow as the Fed is going to take back liquidity. Capital outflow might not be an issue for China. But how to deal with the high inflation is a dilemma for us.

IV. Not another Lehman Brother

A share rose slightly while the US stocks rallied for a second day.Market realized that Evergrande might be another Bear Stearns but not another Lehman Brother.  The Fed’s tapering was also in line with expectation.

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