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        壹 消費(fèi)的增長(zhǎng)來(lái)自收入驅(qū)動(dòng)

       消費(fèi)增長(zhǎng)是由個(gè)人收入水平增速所決定的。截止2020年6月份我國(guó)城鎮(zhèn)居民人均可支配收入的累計(jì)同比增速為11.4%，與截止2020年6月份累計(jì)同比增速1.5%相加，可得2020和2021兩年累計(jì)收入同比增速的平均值為6.45%。這個(gè)增速是2003年有統(tǒng)計(jì)數(shù)據(jù)以來(lái)的最低值。

        貳 疫情沖擊

        這其中一個(gè)因素是疫情的影響。疫情對(duì)居民收入增速造成較大影響主要表現(xiàn)在其對(duì)第三產(chǎn)業(yè)的沖擊。根據(jù)國(guó)家統(tǒng)計(jì)局，2020年我國(guó)有3.58億人從事第三產(chǎn)業(yè)。任何一個(gè)行業(yè)中，80%都是中小企業(yè)，20%是大企業(yè)。據(jù)此可得約2.86億人在第三產(chǎn)業(yè)中的中小企業(yè)工作，占我國(guó)總就業(yè)人口7.5億人的1/3強(qiáng)，分布在餐飲、住宿、旅游、娛樂(lè)等行業(yè)。疫情沖擊下，很多中小餐館、住宿旅游及其他服務(wù)性行業(yè)的從業(yè)人員都不得不因?yàn)橐咔槎媾R較長(zhǎng)時(shí)間的暫時(shí)性失業(yè)，導(dǎo)致收入水平下降。

       叁 高收入人群不受疫情影響

       跟發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家一樣，疫情下中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)也存在明顯的K型復(fù)蘇現(xiàn)象：即高收入人群的收入基本沒(méi)有受到疫情的影響，反而因?yàn)橘Y產(chǎn)價(jià)格收益如股市投資等而使收入水平持續(xù)提高，一個(gè)表現(xiàn)是在奢侈品市場(chǎng)。2020年，受疫情影響，全球奢侈品市場(chǎng)萎縮了23%，但中國(guó)奢侈品消費(fèi)卻比2019年上漲了48%，占全球奢侈品消費(fèi)的1/3。

        肆 大眾消費(fèi)和奢侈品消費(fèi)未來(lái)走向

       未來(lái)，我國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)潛在增速將會(huì)逐步下行，預(yù)計(jì)到5%以下的水平。經(jīng)濟(jì)下行的過(guò)程中，低收入人群仍然是受沖擊最大的。如何使低收入人群的收入水平保持一定的增速而不被落下，是近期政策的一個(gè)焦點(diǎn)。我們認(rèn)為這些政策將會(huì)有助于消費(fèi)的恢復(fù)，尤其是大眾消費(fèi)。而中國(guó)的奢侈品消費(fèi)可參照日本的經(jīng)驗(yàn)。日本奢侈品消費(fèi)在1995年達(dá)到頂峰，人均消費(fèi)達(dá)到1996美元，占全球奢侈品消費(fèi)的68%。隨后，日本消費(fèi)開(kāi)始趨于理性化和去品牌化。2018年，日本占全球奢侈品消費(fèi)的10%。我國(guó)2021年取代日本成為全球最大的奢侈品消費(fèi)市場(chǎng)。2021年以來(lái)，A股和港股市場(chǎng)的消費(fèi)板塊都有較大幅度的調(diào)整，而近期有走強(qiáng)的跡象。這種走強(qiáng)能否持續(xù)還是看居民的消費(fèi)水平能否支撐。

       伍 市場(chǎng)綜述

       A股下跌，港股上漲。A股周期股全線下跌，而消費(fèi)板塊上漲。港股科技股跌幅較大。美股漲跌互現(xiàn)，道指上漲而科技股下跌，因美國(guó)10年期國(guó)債收益率持續(xù)上漲。

I. Consumption growth is driven by disposable income

Urban disposable income per capita growth rate in China grew 11.4% year-on-year by June 2021. In 2020, urban disposable income per capita grew 1.5% year-on-year. Combining the growth rate of 2020 and 2021 urban disposable income per capita grew 6.45% on average for these two years. This is the lowest from 2003 when the data was released for the first time.

II. The pandemic hit the lower-income population hard

The COVID-19 pandemic has hit hard on some groups of people,especially for those in the third industry. There was a population of 358million people working in the third industry. For any sector 80% are small and medium-sized enterprises. Based on this, there were a total of 286 people working in the small- and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). They work in leisure and service, catering, travelling, etc sectors. SMEs in these sectors were hit hard by the pandemic as the latter caused them to stop businesses from time to time. 

III. Higher-income population is not affected by the pandemic

Yet for those high-income population they are not affected by the pandemic at all. Moreover, due to their investment in stock markets or other assets their income actually increased during the pandemic. This is reflected in the luxury consumption. In 2020 luxury consumption fell 23% globally while it rose 48% in China. China took one-third market share of global luxury consumption. Going forward China’s economic growth rate would come down to around 4-5%. During this process the growth rate of personal disposable income would come down as well. 

IV. The trend of luxury and mass consumption in the future 

How to maintain the growth rate of those lower-income population has become the policy focus. This would benefit mass consumption products. Luxury consumption reached peak levels in 1995 in Japan when it took 68% market share worldwide. After that consumers became more rational and consumed no-brand goods. What happened in Japan might give some clues about luxury consumption trend in China in the future.

V. Market summary

A share fell sharply while HK stocks rose slightly.Consumption stocks rose while cyclical stocks fell across the board. The US markets were mixed with 10-year treasury yield rising.

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