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I. China's economy might slow down more than expected in 2H2021 

China’s economic growth might face some head wind in 3Q and 4Q this year due to power shortage. Morgan Stanley pointed out in a recent report that production cut due to power shortage could cost 1 percentage point of GDP growth rate in 4Q this year. It is necessary for governments to adjust policies or cut carbon emission in a more systematic way. 

II. Due to carbon emission

Morgan Stanley estimated that from September to December due to the efforts to cut carbon emission raw steel production volume would fall 9% year-on-year. 7% aluminum production capacity would become idle and 29% of cement production capacity would be affected negatively. Paper and glass production would be affected very soon. Morgan Stanley believed that the infrastructure investment, which is taken as an anti-cycle tool when economy is going down, would not go smoothly due to the shortage of raw materials and power. In September there were at least five provinces that limited power supply. The reason is that China has implemented energy consumption quota. Yet due to the booming export demand some provinces have been lagging far behind the required energy consumption quota. With the year-end in sight they had to cut power supply to satisfy the requirement. Some analysts in China also pointed out that China’s economic growth in 3Q might fall below 5% and 4Q might be around 4%. 

III. Debt ceiling 

At the same time the US economy would reach its peak levels in 3Q this year and slow down from 4Q. Moreover, the debt ceiling might force governments to shut down temporarily. In 2013, debt ceiling caused the governments to close down and 800,000 employees were unemployed for morethan 2 weeks. This would have a negative impact on the US economy.

IV. Treasury yield shot up

Both A share and HK market rose.A-share cyclical stocks stopped falling while liquor stocks corrected after the rally on Monday. HK tech stocks rallied. The US stocks fell sharply as 10-year treasury yield went up to 1.53%. Tech stocks fell the most. The US dollar index rose above 93, the first time from November last year. 

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