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       壹 低估值板塊

       我們認(rèn)為低估值板塊四季度的機(jī)會(huì)更大一些。而一些低估值板塊恰好也是年初至今大幅落后的板塊。A股申萬28個(gè)行業(yè)中年初至今11個(gè)上漲，16個(gè)下跌, 一個(gè)持平。漲幅居前的是采掘、鋼鐵、電氣設(shè)備、有色和化工，都是周期股或與新能源相關(guān)的板塊。跌幅居前的板塊為家用電器、非銀金融、傳媒、農(nóng)林牧漁、食品飲料和房地產(chǎn)。這些板塊或受到房地產(chǎn)政策影響，如房地產(chǎn)和家用電器，或者是因基本面變差而遭到拋棄，如傳媒、非銀金融和農(nóng)林牧漁，或者是抱團(tuán)股瓦解，如食品飲料。從估值看，銀行、建筑裝飾和房地產(chǎn)靜態(tài)市凈率最低，分別為0.63、0.92和0.94倍；這三個(gè)板塊的靜態(tài)市盈率也是最低的，分別為6.3、8.7和7.7倍。銀行板塊年初至今下跌3.9%，建筑裝飾板塊漲幅為9.6%。四季度在經(jīng)濟(jì)下行壓力加大和政策可能出臺(tái)的背景下，這些低估值板塊會(huì)更加受益于政策，應(yīng)該會(huì)有較好表現(xiàn)。

       貳 高估值板塊

       對(duì)于高估值的板塊，我們認(rèn)為還是要判斷未來的業(yè)績(jī)?cè)鏊佟Ｖ怨乐蹈呔褪穷A(yù)期未來的盈利增速會(huì)較高。如果盈利增速不達(dá)預(yù)期，則股價(jià)就會(huì)如上面提到的基本面變差的板塊持續(xù)下跌。我們?cè)谘芯恐幸舶l(fā)現(xiàn)A股還有很多個(gè)股盈利增速較好，估值也都處于歷史低位，值得配置。

       叁 港股

       關(guān)于港股，我們之前在港股到底有多慘？一文中指出，港股因歐美機(jī)構(gòu)投資者占市場(chǎng)的相對(duì)主導(dǎo)地位，受影響的因素較多。港股整體估值處在歷史低位。以恒生指數(shù)的靜態(tài)市凈率為1.1倍，處在2002年以來15.7%的分位；而恒生國企指數(shù)的靜態(tài)市凈率也是1.1倍，處在2002年以來34%的分位。隨著中美關(guān)系有所好轉(zhuǎn)，港股將更加受益。

       伍 周期股

       對(duì)于周期股，要看商品價(jià)格在高位能夠持續(xù)多長(zhǎng)時(shí)間。如持續(xù)的時(shí)間足夠長(zhǎng)，則周期股的股價(jià)還會(huì)有較好表現(xiàn)。對(duì)比本次周期股和2008年周期股的漲幅。相比2008年，周期股的股價(jià)漲幅仍然落后于商品價(jià)格上漲的幅度。

        陸 市場(chǎng)普漲

        港股和歐美股市均大漲。周四因美國債務(wù)上限問題延期到12月初，市場(chǎng)一片歡騰。同時(shí)，美國周四發(fā)布的上周申請(qǐng)失業(yè)救濟(jì)人數(shù)也好于預(yù)期。因?yàn)槭I(yè)救濟(jì)已經(jīng)到期，人們被迫出來尋找工作。美10年期國債收益率上漲到1.57%，瑞銀預(yù)計(jì)年底將會(huì)達(dá)到1.8%。市場(chǎng)關(guān)注周五美國股市開市前的9月非農(nóng)就業(yè)報(bào)告。如報(bào)告符合預(yù)期，則美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)縮減債券購買計(jì)劃將會(huì)如期進(jìn)行。

I. Low-valued sectors  

We believe that low-valued stocks would have more upside potential compared with those high-valued ones in 4th quarter this year. Among the 28 sectors in A-share 11 sectors rose while the remaining 16 sectors fell and one sector was flat. The low-valued sectors include bank, property and construction and decoration, which rose -3.9%, 9.6% and -11.3% year-to-date. In 4thquarter China’s economy would see lower year-on-year growth rate. Market expects that supporting policies might come out at some point in 4th quarter.The low-valued sectors including bank, property and construction and decoration all benefit from the likely supporting policies and could perform well.

II. High-valued sectors 

For those high-valued sectors the key is to see whether their earnings growth can maintain at a high speed. The reason that they enjoy high valuation is due to that their earnings growth are expected to be high. If it turns out not to be the case then it would be disastrous for stock prices.

III.Cyclical sectors 

Cyclical sectors would also perform if commodity prices can be maintained at high levels. Compared with 2008 when the last super cycle took place, this time stock prices increased less than commodity prices. Hence, stocks might still have room to go up. 

IV. HK market 

HK market is valued at low levels. The trailing-twelve-month price-to-book value of both Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng Enterprises Index was 1.1x, which put them at 15% and 33% percentile respectively from 2002. HK market is affected by a lot of factors. If Sino-US relationship could ease then HK market would benefit.

V. Global market rallied.

Market cheered the short-term debt ceiling deal in the US. Also the initial jobless claim last week in the US came in better than expected as people began to seek jobs actively. The non-farm payroll in September,which would be released on Friday before the US market opens, is the focus. A good non-farm payroll number would provide the green light for the Fed to take back liquidity. 10-year treasury yield continued to rise to 1.57%. The UBS predicted that it would reach 1.8% by the end of this year.

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