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       壹 股指多上漲

     上證指數(shù)年初至上周五10月15日（下同）上漲2.7%，從2月18日的高點(diǎn)下跌2.3%。創(chuàng)業(yè)板指年初至今上漲10.6%, 從2月18日高點(diǎn)下跌4%?？苿?chuàng)50年初至今下跌2.5%，其高點(diǎn)在2021年8月6日達(dá)到，從高點(diǎn)至今下跌15%。

       貳 翻倍股

      指數(shù)總體上漲，但個(gè)股是分化的。年初至今有2012只股票下跌，但大幅下跌的股票并不多，只有47只個(gè)股跌幅在50%以上。2099只股票上漲，578只個(gè)股漲幅在50%以上。其中432只個(gè)股漲幅超過100%。這些翻倍股大多在鋰電池、半導(dǎo)體、新能源和光伏等熱門板塊，反應(yīng)資金對(duì)這些板塊的追捧。除個(gè)別股票外，大多市盈率估值都是三位數(shù)的水平。少量翻倍股估值不高，有可能會(huì)延續(xù)漲勢(shì)。

      叁 腰斬股

     而下跌50%以上的股票可以分為幾種情況：一是遭受政策沖擊的股票，如教育股；二是債務(wù)率較高經(jīng)營(yíng)一度陷入危機(jī)的房地產(chǎn)股；三是去年的大牛股。這些股票在47只股票中占比接近1/2，占比最高。比如某醬油股，去年上漲63%，今年下跌52%；某手套股，去年上漲9倍多，今年下跌68%；某復(fù)合調(diào)味料股，去年上漲83%，今年下跌73%。最后一類是今年被ST的股票。如從2月高點(diǎn)算，下跌幅度超過50%的股票一共32只，其中大部分與年初至今下跌50%以上的個(gè)股重合。少部分不一樣的股票有的是受到個(gè)別房地產(chǎn)企業(yè)的影響或自身風(fēng)險(xiǎn)暴露。簡(jiǎn)而言之，今年的腰斬股最有可能是去年的翻倍股。一方面高估值意味著對(duì)這些股票的期望很高，而難以達(dá)到；另一方面有些股票上漲純粹是炒作的結(jié)果，注定不會(huì)長(zhǎng)久。

      肆 中國(guó)3季度經(jīng)濟(jì)數(shù)據(jù)

      3季度中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)數(shù)據(jù)低于預(yù)期，一方面受到疫情和限電的干擾，另一方面經(jīng)濟(jì)仍處在下行趨勢(shì)中。低于預(yù)期的經(jīng)濟(jì)數(shù)據(jù)并沒有對(duì)A股和港股構(gòu)成較大壓力，A股和港股均探底回升，反應(yīng)市場(chǎng)對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)下行預(yù)期較充分。但美股道指因中國(guó)低于預(yù)期的經(jīng)濟(jì)數(shù)據(jù)而下跌，歐洲股指也普跌。雖然美債10年期收益率上漲到1.6%y以上，但科技股仍大幅上漲。納指和標(biāo)普連續(xù)4天上漲。美股3季度凈利潤(rùn)預(yù)計(jì)同比上漲30%。根據(jù)上周各大銀行，美國(guó)消費(fèi)者支出能力強(qiáng)勁，支持美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)持續(xù)復(fù)蘇。預(yù)測(cè)美股調(diào)整的摩根斯坦利策略分析師認(rèn)為市場(chǎng)比預(yù)期的韌性強(qiáng)。

I. Stock Indexes rose  

Shanghai Composite Index rose 2.7% year-to-date (October 15th , the same below) and fell 2.3% from its February high. Chinext Index rose 10.6% and fell 4% from February high. STAR 50 Index fell 2.5% year-to-date and fell 15% from its August high.

II. Stocks that rose more than 100%

While indexes rose broadly, individual stocks performed differently. Year-to-date there were 2012 stocks falling and 2099 stocks that rose. 47 stocks fell more than 50% and 578 stocks rose more than 50%. Also 432 stocks rose more than 100%,which were in lithium battery, photovoltaic, and other new energy-related sectors and semi-conductor sectors. Most of these stocks were valued at more than 100x price-to-earnings ratio, reflecting that market expectation for them are high. 

III. Stocks that fell more than 50%

Those stocks falling more than 50% fell into several categories. The first is that was targeted by policies, such as tutoring stocks. The second is property companies that were in big debt and ran into difficulties in operation. The third is those that rose more than 50% last year. This category comprises of the largest group as about half of the 47 stocks fell into this category. The last group is those stocks that were specially treated. 32 stocks fell more than 50% from February high. Most of them were stocks that fell 50% year-to-date. Some stocks were different due to their own risk exposure. 

IV. Risks associated with high-flying stocks

In summary, stocks that rose more than 100% could fall sharply the following year. The reason is that expectation for them is so high that they could not deliver. Also some stocks rise purely due to speculation. In this case their stock rally would be doomed to fade sometime later.    

V. Market summary

China 3rd quarter economic data came in lower than expected.But both A-share and HK stocks bottomed out, reflecting that market has priced in the slower economic growth. But DOW Index in the US and European stocks fell as investors were concerned about China’s economic growth rate. While the 10-year treasury yield rose above 1.6%, tech stocks rallied. SP 500 and Nasdaq rose for 4 days in a row, boosted by the higher-than-expected earnings growth in 3Q.

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