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     壹 降準(zhǔn)預(yù)期落空 

      雖然中國(guó)3季度經(jīng)濟(jì)數(shù)據(jù)低于預(yù)期，市場(chǎng)普遍預(yù)期的降準(zhǔn)并沒有發(fā)生。我國(guó)10年期國(guó)債收益率也再次回到了3%以上的水平，反應(yīng)市場(chǎng)對(duì)寬松政策的預(yù)期落空之后的估值修正。有很多分析師對(duì)此做出了解讀，有的認(rèn)為當(dāng)前的經(jīng)濟(jì)不振的主要原因不是需求側(cè)，而是供給側(cè)。而降準(zhǔn)是對(duì)需求側(cè)進(jìn)行刺激，因此不是對(duì)癥下藥。有的認(rèn)為當(dāng)前流動(dòng)性并非不充裕，而是實(shí)體需求不足，降準(zhǔn)不一定能對(duì)實(shí)體經(jīng)濟(jì)的需求產(chǎn)生較大提振作用。

     貳 推繩子

    我們傾向認(rèn)為在長(zhǎng)期債務(wù)周期的后期，經(jīng)濟(jì)進(jìn)入低增長(zhǎng)、資產(chǎn)低回報(bào)階段，央行難以將刺激性政策轉(zhuǎn)化為支出的增加。這個(gè)階段如果貨幣發(fā)行過多，可能會(huì)發(fā)生流動(dòng)性陷阱，同時(shí)通脹走高，經(jīng)濟(jì)不得不進(jìn)入痛苦的通脹性去杠桿。這種現(xiàn)象被稱作“推繩子”。一個(gè)典型例子是德國(guó)魏瑪共和國(guó)在上世紀(jì)二十年代所經(jīng)歷的惡性通貨膨脹。當(dāng)時(shí)每個(gè)德國(guó)人口袋中可能都裝有幾十億馬克，甚至有段時(shí)間一個(gè)面包就需要 2000 億馬克，而一周的養(yǎng)老金都買不來一杯咖啡。由于紙幣價(jià)值每秒鐘都在變化，商家都不再將售價(jià)標(biāo)示出來。家庭主婦用紙幣生火做飯，兒童用紙幣疊城堡。在魏瑪共和國(guó)的通脹性蕭條中，每輪央行印鈔之后，越來越多的貨幣不是進(jìn)入實(shí)體經(jīng)濟(jì)，而是投入到實(shí)物資產(chǎn)（如黃金）和外幣。股市短期表現(xiàn)較好，但是在債務(wù)危機(jī)中總體是下跌的。

     叁 我國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)增速將會(huì)企穩(wěn)

     魏瑪共和國(guó)的通脹性蕭條在中國(guó)當(dāng)然不會(huì)發(fā)生。我國(guó)消費(fèi)領(lǐng)域通脹水平較低，而生產(chǎn)領(lǐng)域通脹有望見頂回落。四季度中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)仍會(huì)趨勢(shì)性向下。但貨幣政策總體上是中性偏寬松的，財(cái)政政策會(huì)持續(xù)發(fā)力。明年1季度基建項(xiàng)目的啟動(dòng)將會(huì)帶動(dòng)經(jīng)濟(jì)企穩(wěn)。中長(zhǎng)期中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)將會(huì)回到潛在增速水平，這個(gè)水平是3%、4%還是5%取決于中國(guó)勞動(dòng)生產(chǎn)率的提升程度，也就是取決于中國(guó)科技發(fā)展水平。我們對(duì)短期股市不悲觀，對(duì)長(zhǎng)期股市保持樂觀，相信科技創(chuàng)新將推動(dòng)A股長(zhǎng)牛。

     肆 外資流入A股和港股

     A股和港股上漲。人民幣對(duì)美元走強(qiáng)，距6月初的高點(diǎn)一步之遙。受人民幣走強(qiáng)影響，外資流入A股和港股。A股農(nóng)林牧漁、食品飲料和醫(yī)藥生物漲幅居前，港股工業(yè)、必需消費(fèi)和醫(yī)療保健行業(yè)漲幅居前。兩市周期股和房地產(chǎn)股回落。美股延續(xù)上漲態(tài)勢(shì)，上市公司3季度業(yè)績(jī)持續(xù)超預(yù)期。美國(guó)10年期國(guó)債收益率上漲到1.65%，為五月以來的最高水平。

I. Reserve ratio cut did not happen 

While 3rd quarter GDP growth rate fell in short of expectation in China market reacted to this set of data in a calm way. But many investors are bewildered as to why the reserve ratio cut for banks has not happened yet. Some analysts believed that this was because that economy slowed down in 3rd quarter due to the supply chain disruption. This can’t be solved by cutting reserve ratio. Others thought that given the low demand liquidity injected would not come to the real economy. 

II. Push the string

Our view is that at the later stage of a debt cycle economy slows down and return on investment also comes down. At this time when central bank injects liquidity it would be met with liquidity trap and risks higher inflation. This phenomenon is also called “push the string”. 

III. Weimarer Republik

A case in point is Weimarer Republik inthe 1920s. The nation suffered hyperinflation, in which a piece of bread might cost up to several billion Deutsche Mark. While central banks printed money very fast the money did not get into the real economy rather than go to buy gold or foreign currency. 

IV. China's economy would stabilize in 1Q2022

We do not expect hyperinflation to happen in China,though. The inflation in consumer side would maintain at relatively low levels in the next 6 months. While producer-side inflation has been above expectation it would see turning point soon. Economy might continue to slow down in 4thquarter. But monetary policy would maintain neutral to easing stance and fiscal policy would play a key role in supporting economy. We expect China’s economy to stabilize in 1Q2022 with infrastructure spending coming up and remain optimistic for stock market. For the long-term China’s economy would be determined by productivity improvement. This mainly comes from technology and innovation,which would support a long bull market.  

V. RMB went strong

A-share and HK stocks rose. RMB went strong against the US dollar and was close to the high point last June. International investors poured money into both A-share and HK market. The US stocks continued to rise as companies’ 3rd earnings beat expectation. 10-year treasury yield rose to 1.65%, the highest from last May.  

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