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      壹 對(duì)Taper 的擔(dān)憂

      A股近期走勢(shì)平平，遠(yuǎn)不及美股和港股走勢(shì)靚麗。我們認(rèn)為一個(gè)原因是市場(chǎng)對(duì)美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)縮減債券規(guī)模有所擔(dān)心。美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)預(yù)計(jì)將在11月4日議息會(huì)議結(jié)束后的新聞發(fā)布會(huì)上宣布縮減債券購(gòu)買規(guī)模，并從12月份開(kāi)始實(shí)行。近期美國(guó)國(guó)債收益率持續(xù)走高，從9月份最低的1.28%上漲到1.65%，短短一個(gè)多月的時(shí)間上漲了37個(gè)基點(diǎn)。美國(guó)國(guó)債收益率上漲對(duì)A股投資人造成一定的壓力，但并沒(méi)有阻斷北上資金投資A股的熱情。截止10月21日，北上資金本月凈流入84.5億人民幣，延續(xù)了年初至今每月都凈流入的狀態(tài)。

      貳 對(duì)業(yè)績(jī)的擔(dān)憂

      另外一個(gè)原因是對(duì)業(yè)績(jī)的擔(dān)憂。截至2021年10月20日，A股已披露上市公司預(yù)告數(shù)量為1103家，其中周期板塊表現(xiàn)較好，有色金屬、采掘、化工、鋼鐵行業(yè)已披露上市公司2021Q3利潤(rùn)同比增速為191%、115%、222%、156%。而食品飲料、商業(yè)貿(mào)易、農(nóng)林牧漁表現(xiàn)欠佳，業(yè)績(jī)同比增速分別為-275%、-129%、-249%。由于預(yù)披露的公司業(yè)績(jī)同比增速或者超過(guò)50%，或者低于50%，一些景氣行業(yè)預(yù)披露的公司代表行業(yè)最好的業(yè)績(jī)，整體行業(yè)的業(yè)績(jī)?cè)鏊賾?yīng)沒(méi)有預(yù)披露的業(yè)績(jī)高；而景氣度較低的行業(yè)的業(yè)績(jī)可能也比披露的好。市場(chǎng)預(yù)期3季報(bào)業(yè)績(jī)?cè)鏊賹?季度的高位回落。受上游原材料價(jià)格上漲的影響，中游制造業(yè)毛利率受到擠壓的現(xiàn)象比較普遍。

      叁 擔(dān)憂需要時(shí)間緩解

      我們認(rèn)為上游價(jià)格有可能較長(zhǎng)時(shí)間保持在高位，周期股的業(yè)績(jī)同比增速也會(huì)在3季度和4季度保持在較高水平。因此，中游制造業(yè)可能毛利率會(huì)持續(xù)承壓。而下游消費(fèi)行業(yè)因受到經(jīng)濟(jì)不景氣的影響，業(yè)績(jī)很可能在低位徘徊。所以，A股目前面臨的問(wèn)題就是經(jīng)濟(jì)下行期，高景氣的行業(yè)恐怕難以維持欣欣向榮，而景氣度較低的行業(yè)也需要時(shí)間實(shí)現(xiàn)業(yè)績(jī)的反轉(zhuǎn)。這有可能是市場(chǎng)徘徊不前的另一個(gè)原因。而這個(gè)問(wèn)題需要時(shí)間去解決。

      肆 美股再創(chuàng)新高

      A股和港股下跌。金融和房地產(chǎn)板塊走強(qiáng)。高層認(rèn)為恒大的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)不會(huì)外溢，給市場(chǎng)提供了信心。美國(guó)上周申請(qǐng)失業(yè)救濟(jì)人數(shù)好于預(yù)期，標(biāo)普500連續(xù)7天上漲，創(chuàng)出歷史新高。因特斯拉業(yè)績(jī)超預(yù)期，科技股上漲。美股過(guò)去20年，通脹和利潤(rùn)率水平是成正比的。有知名策略分析師認(rèn)為不應(yīng)該擔(dān)憂通脹擠壓利潤(rùn)率水平。不過(guò)如此高的通脹水平?jīng)]有對(duì)利潤(rùn)率水平構(gòu)成壓力可能也是因?yàn)榱鲃?dòng)性非常充裕。

I. concern about taper 

A-share lagged behind HK market and the US stock market after the National Day holidays. One concern might be taper. The Federal Reserve is expected to announce taper on Nov. 4thand execute in December.The US 10-year Treasury Yield rose from 1.28% in September to 1.65%, i.e., up 37 basis points in one month plus. Yet north-bound capital has maintained net inflow in October so far at RMB 8.45 billion. This year north-bound capital maintained net inflow for every month. 

II. Concern about earnings growth 

The second reason might be concerns about 3rdquarter earnings. By October 20th there were 1105 companies in A share that pre-disclosed 3rd quarter earnings. Cyclical sectors performed well. 3rd quarter earnings in non-ferrous metals, mining, petrochemical, and iron and steel rose 191%、115%、222% and 156% year-on-year (yoy) respectively. While food and beverage, commercial trade, farming and fishery performed poorly. Their earnings grew -275%、-129 and -249% yoy. Pre-disclosure rules only require those companies whose earnings grow more than 50% or decline more than 50% to pre-disclose.Hence, the sector earnings growth might not be that good for cyclicals and bad for those saw big earnings decline.  3rd quarter earnings growth rate is expected to slip from the high growth rate in 2nd quarter. And margin pressure is not unusual, making market nervous.

III. SP 500 reached record high

A-share and HK stocks fell.Financials and property sector rallied as supervising agency considered that Evergrande was a separate case and would not cause risk to spread out. The US initial jobless claim last week was better than expectation. SP 500 reached record high. As Tesla earnings came in better than expected tech stocks rallied. A well-known strategist pointed out that over the last 20 years profit margin of SP 500 correlated positively with inflation. Hence, it is no need to worry about high inflation. Yet that the high inflation can be transmitted might be due to abundant liquidity to some extent.

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