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      壹 食品在消費(fèi)者價(jià)格指數(shù)中占比最高

      近期蔬菜價(jià)格上漲，有的蔬菜單價(jià)已經(jīng)超過豬肉價(jià)格。這會(huì)不會(huì)對(duì)消費(fèi)者價(jià)格指數(shù)產(chǎn)生上行壓力？在我國消費(fèi)者價(jià)格指數(shù)中，食品占比20.9%，是消費(fèi)者價(jià)格指數(shù)中占比最高的項(xiàng)目。食品中占比最高的項(xiàng)目是畜肉類，占比5.42%；而其中豬肉占比最高，占消費(fèi)者價(jià)格指數(shù)的比例為3.31%。鮮菜是食品項(xiàng)目中占比第二高的，比例為2.48%。

      貳 中美消費(fèi)者價(jià)格指數(shù)構(gòu)成差異

      中國和美國的消費(fèi)者價(jià)格指數(shù)構(gòu)成有較大差異。美國的消費(fèi)者價(jià)格指數(shù)中占比最高的是住房價(jià)格，占比41.02%，主要指租房價(jià)格，其含義跟我國消費(fèi)者價(jià)格指數(shù)的居住價(jià)格是一致的。其次是交通，占比為16.87%。食品價(jià)格占比第三，為15.25%。中美兩國消費(fèi)者價(jià)格指數(shù)中食品占比差異是經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展水平所決定的。美國人均可支配收入食品的支出占比不到10%，而我國則接近30%。因此，食品對(duì)我國消費(fèi)者價(jià)格指數(shù)的影響較大。

      叁 鮮菜上漲的原因

      鮮菜作為食品中第二大權(quán)重項(xiàng)，其對(duì)消費(fèi)者價(jià)格指數(shù)也有較大影響。近期蔬菜價(jià)格的上漲一方面是因?yàn)樵牧蟽r(jià)格的上漲傳導(dǎo)到了蔬菜種植端，種子和化肥成本上漲增加了種植成本，而油價(jià)上漲也增加了運(yùn)輸費(fèi)。另一方面，個(gè)別省份接連遭受水災(zāi)，很多葉子菜被雨水泡了爛在地里，造成蔬菜大量減產(chǎn)。今年天氣降溫也早于往年，造成蔬菜生長緩慢。最后，北方蔬菜退市，也推動(dòng)了蔬菜價(jià)格上漲。蔬菜價(jià)格上漲推動(dòng)消費(fèi)者價(jià)格指數(shù)上漲時(shí)有發(fā)生。

      肆不會(huì)對(duì)貨幣政策產(chǎn)生影響

      2020年12月也是因?yàn)樽匀粸?zāi)害、低溫和運(yùn)輸成本增加導(dǎo)致蔬菜價(jià)格上漲，使得“白菜價(jià)”不再是便宜的代名詞。蔬菜價(jià)格上漲短期將會(huì)推升消費(fèi)者價(jià)格指數(shù)，但隨著蔬菜供應(yīng)增加，蔬菜價(jià)格就會(huì)從高位回落。蔬菜價(jià)格真正回到低位恐怕需要到明年2月份，考慮到冬季蔬菜供應(yīng)少于其他季節(jié)，疊加春節(jié)之前食品價(jià)格均會(huì)趨勢(shì)性上漲。我們認(rèn)為蔬菜價(jià)格上漲也不會(huì)對(duì)央行的貨幣政策產(chǎn)生較大影響。一個(gè)是因?yàn)檫@是一個(gè)短期現(xiàn)象；另外，央行應(yīng)該更關(guān)注核心消費(fèi)者價(jià)格指數(shù)，而后者不包括食品價(jià)格。核心消費(fèi)者價(jià)格指數(shù)與居住成本相關(guān)度較大。

      伍 房地產(chǎn)稅長期利好股市

      房地產(chǎn)稅將會(huì)打壓投資性需求，推動(dòng)資金從房地產(chǎn)市場轉(zhuǎn)入股票市場，長期利好股市。美股連漲3周，道指和標(biāo)普均創(chuàng)出歷史新高。標(biāo)普5003季度業(yè)績預(yù)計(jì)增長35%。本周大的科技公司包括臉書、谷歌等報(bào)告3季報(bào)業(yè)績。

I. Vegetable prices have been on a soar recently

Some worry that the rising vegetable prices would cause monetary policy to become stringent. We believe this would not happen. Among China’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) foods take the biggest weighting at 20.9%. Meat takes the largest weighting among foods at 5.42% while swine takes the largest weighting at 3.31%. Vegetable takes the second largest weighting among foods at 2.48%. 

II. China and the US CPI weightings are different 

The weighting of China’s CPI is different from that of the US. In the US CPI the largest weighting is residential cost, which mainly refers torental cost. Its weighting is 41.02%. The second largest weighting is transportation costs at 16.87%. Foods take the third largest weighting at 15.25%. The reason of the differences lies in the economic levels. In the US consumer only spends less than 10% of their disposable income on foods compared with close to 30% in China. 

III. Several factors caused vegetable prices to rise 

The vegetable prices increase in China was due to several factors.The first is the rising costs of planting and transportation costs as oil,chemical fertilizer and seeds costs rose with the raw material prices increase.The second is floods in some provinces, which caused vegetables to be flooded and supply shortage. The third one is fast-falling temperature, which made vegetables grow more slowly. The last one is that vegetable supply in the northern part of China came to a close. 

IV. It is not a concern

Rising vegetable prices would push up CPI. But this happens from time to time.The most recent one was last December, when rising transportation costs, low temperature and natural disaster caused vegetable supply shortage. We expect the high vegetable prices to come down with supply increase. But it might maintain at a relatively high level until Feb.2022 as food prices would be on a rising trend before the Spring Festival. China’s monetary policy seems to follow core CPI more closely, which excludes food and energy prices.

V. Property tax would be levied in China

Property tax would push out investment demands for property, which is beneficial for stock markets in the long run. 

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