精品网曝门白浆一区二区三区_国产精品线在线精品国语_亚洲国产三级在线观看看_日本在线一区二区三区免费观看_亚洲成a人片在线观看无遮挡_久久99精品久久久久婷婷_精品国产aⅴ_蜜臀av电影在线观看_欧美一区二区三区四区在线观看_狠狠色丁香婷婷久久综合考虑

      壹暫時的還是持久的？

      對于通脹是暫時的還是持久的，不同的人有不同的見解。在美國就可以分為贊成派和反對派兩大陣營。新債王杰弗瑞·岡拉克認為通脹是持久的，因為居住成本和工資會持續(xù)上漲。他預(yù)計明年通脹將不會低于4%。這比過去一年5.4%的通脹水平要低一些，但仍高于美聯(lián)儲的通脹平均目標2%。而創(chuàng)新女王凱瑟琳·伍德則認為通脹會在節(jié)假日結(jié)束后回落。她援引的例子是2008年全球金融危機之后美聯(lián)儲實行了量化寬松。她當(dāng)時也判斷通脹會來，但是并沒有。一個原因就是雖然錢放出來了，但是貨幣流通速度放緩了。這導(dǎo)致實際流通的錢并沒有增加。

      貳 貨幣流通速度持續(xù)放緩

      美國M2流通速度在2008年1季度為1.94，那是全球金融危機發(fā)生之前，而到2019年底則下降到了1.44。新冠危機之后美聯(lián)儲大幅放水，貨幣流通速度在2020年2季度下降到了1.1的水平，之后一直維持在這一水平。我國的情況與美國類似。我國貨幣乘數(shù)在2008年全球金融危機之后趨勢性走高，從2008年初的3.82上升到2018年年底的5.52，2019年進一步上升到6.13。隨著新冠危機的爆發(fā)，我國央行也在2020年2季度釋放了流動性，貨幣乘數(shù)在2020年7月份上升到7.15，之后在這一水平上下波動至今。貨幣乘數(shù)與流通速度成反比例關(guān)系。貨幣乘數(shù)上升意味著流通速度降低，反之亦然。

      叁 科技推動通脹下行

      中美兩國貨幣流通速度下降具體原因比較復(fù)雜，對此的很多討論都沒有定論。但杠桿率的提升可以算作一個因素。科技是推動通脹下行的力量，新型支付工具提升了貨幣流通速度。人工智能的成本以每年40-70%的速度下降，這種驚人的科技力量將推動通脹水平持續(xù)走低。對于新債王而言，通脹上升而利率無法及時跟上，則實際利率將維持在負區(qū)間。這對債券投資并非好事情。而在凱瑟琳的眼中，任何不能創(chuàng)新的企業(yè)都是通縮的來源，是價值陷阱。只有科技進步才能創(chuàng)造價值。如果將工資和居住成本等看成是影響通脹的看得見的力量，那科技就是影響通脹的隱藏的力量。

      肆 美股新高

      A股和港股下跌。美股再創(chuàng)新高。美聯(lián)儲下周將宣布縮減債券購買規(guī)模。法國巴黎銀行分析師預(yù)計在通脹高漲的背景下，美聯(lián)儲明年夏季將會緊急加息，到年底加息四次，每次25個基點。當(dāng)前美股估值沒有反應(yīng)這一可能性。

I. Transient or lasting? 

The discussions on whether inflation is transient or persisting has been on and on. Different people have different opinions. Jefferey Gundlach, billionaire bond investor, believed that inflation in consumer prices likely will remain elevated through 2021 and stay above 4% through at least 2022 due to rising shelter costs and wages. But Cathie Wood,the famous innovation investor, believed that from her own experience inflation would not come. She thought that inflation would come off in 2008-09 when the Fed started quantitative easing. But she was wrong. Instead, velocity-the rate at which money turns over per year - declined, taking away its inflationary sting.

II. Velocity still is falling. 

Velocity of M2 in the US was 1.94 in 1Q2008 and fell to 1.44 by the end of 2019. As the Federal Reserve printed a lot of money after the COVID-19 crises the velocity of M2 fell to 1.1 in 2Q2020 and maintained at this level from then on. The same happened in China. China’s M2 multiplier was 3.82 at the beginning of 2008 and rose to 5.52 by the end of 2018. It further climbed to 6.13 in 2019. In 2020 the People’s Bank of China released liquidity to deal with the COVID-19 crises. And M2 multiplier rose to 7.15 in July 2020 and has been up and down around this level since then. Velocity and money multiplier are inversely correlated. The rising money multiplier means that velocity of money is becoming smaller and smaller.Some owes the slowdown of money turning over to gearing ratio increase. 

III.Technology pushes inflation down

But technology improvement promotes money turn over faster such as the new payment instruments including Wechat payment and Alipay, etc. Furthermore, the cost of intelligence artificial will decrease at 40-70% per year. This would also push inflation down.If we consider shelter costs and wages etc as the obvious power to influence inflation, then technology is a hided power to have an impact on inflation.

IV. The US stocks reached record levels

Both A-share and HK stocks fell.The US stocks rallied to another record levels boosted by major technology companies’ better earnings. 

聲明：本市場點評由北京楓瑞資產(chǎn)管理有限公司（以下簡稱“楓瑞資產(chǎn)”）“楓瑞視點”微信公眾號提供和擁有版權(quán)，授權(quán)上海海獅資產(chǎn)管理有限公司轉(zhuǎn)載。在任何情況下文中信息或所表述的意見不構(gòu)成對任何人的投資建議，楓瑞資產(chǎn)不對任何人因使用本文中的內(nèi)容所引發(fā)的損失負任何責(zé)任。未經(jīng)楓瑞資產(chǎn)書面授權(quán)，本文中的內(nèi)容均不得以任何侵犯楓瑞資產(chǎn)版權(quán)的方式使用和轉(zhuǎn)載。市場有風(fēng)險，投資需謹慎。