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      壹 熱門公司業(yè)績(jī)低于預(yù)期

      本周A股跌幅較大，究其原因是上市公司3季報(bào)低于預(yù)期。3季報(bào)還有兩天就全部披露結(jié)束。截止10月28日，一些基金持倉(cāng)的熱門股3季度業(yè)績(jī)大幅低于市場(chǎng)預(yù)期。比如某新能源汽車龍頭企業(yè)，3季度收入同比上漲21.98%，但扣非凈利潤(rùn)同比下跌67%，主要原因應(yīng)是上游原材料價(jià)格上漲導(dǎo)致毛利率下降。該公司3季度毛利率為12.97%，較去年同期毛利率20.75%下降了7.78個(gè)百分點(diǎn)。這種征收不增利的現(xiàn)象在中游制造業(yè)比較普遍。另外一家鋰電池龍頭企業(yè)3季度收入同比增長(zhǎng)125.9%，而凈利潤(rùn)僅同比增長(zhǎng)23.7%。

      貳 原材料漲幅巨大

      生產(chǎn)鋰電池的原料今年以來(lái)漲幅巨大。華東地區(qū)工業(yè)級(jí)碳酸鋰價(jià)格去年底為5萬(wàn)元每噸，當(dāng)年上漲12.6%。而2021年10月28日，華東地區(qū)工業(yè)級(jí)碳酸鋰價(jià)格上漲到180600元每噸，較去年底上漲了261%。碳酸鋰占鋰電池原材料成本的50%，而鋰電池又占電動(dòng)車成本的50%。因此，碳酸鋰價(jià)格的上漲推動(dòng)了鋰電池和電動(dòng)車成本的上漲。除了碳酸鋰，其他動(dòng)力電池原材料也漲幅巨大，比如鈷的價(jià)格從2020年底的279,000元一噸上漲到400,000元一噸，漲幅高達(dá)43%。

      叁 周期性因素

      除了原材料價(jià)格上漲之外，導(dǎo)致企業(yè)業(yè)績(jī)低于預(yù)期的還有周期性因素。比如某機(jī)械龍頭企業(yè)，三季度實(shí)現(xiàn)營(yíng)業(yè)收入205.9億元，同比下降13.14%；實(shí)現(xiàn)歸屬于上市公司股東的凈利潤(rùn)為24.93億元，同比下降35.32%。公司認(rèn)為凈利潤(rùn)下滑主要受國(guó)內(nèi)下游需求走弱以及去年高基數(shù)影響。隨著國(guó)內(nèi)經(jīng)濟(jì)進(jìn)入下行周期，今年以來(lái)挖掘機(jī)銷量持續(xù)同比負(fù)增長(zhǎng)。

      叁 制造業(yè)大而不強(qiáng)

      2019年我國(guó)制造業(yè)占GDP比例為27.2%，中游制造業(yè)受到原材料成本沖擊較大，且不易傳導(dǎo)。同樣是面臨原材料上漲的沖擊，美國(guó)制造業(yè)企業(yè)的業(yè)績(jī)?nèi)匀混n麗。以上述機(jī)械行業(yè)的美國(guó)龍頭企業(yè)為例，其2021年3季度收入和凈利潤(rùn)分別同比上漲21.8%和96.9%。3季報(bào)在一定程度上反應(yīng)了我國(guó)制造業(yè)離高端化仍有一定距離，大而不強(qiáng)。

      肆 超預(yù)期的行業(yè)

      也有一些公司的業(yè)績(jī)超預(yù)期，如上游原材料行業(yè)和大金融行業(yè)。原材料行業(yè)受益于產(chǎn)品價(jià)格上漲；而銀行業(yè)業(yè)績(jī)?cè)鏊佥^快，一方面是去年業(yè)績(jī)的低基數(shù)，另一方面受益于財(cái)富管理、信用卡等手續(xù)費(fèi)收入的增長(zhǎng)。展望未來(lái)，熱門板塊因業(yè)績(jī)不及預(yù)期有可能進(jìn)行調(diào)整，但一些冷門板塊如銀行等可能會(huì)受到資金的青睞，表現(xiàn)強(qiáng)于大勢(shì)。

      伍 美大型科技公司業(yè)績(jī)不及預(yù)期

      A股和港股連續(xù)第三天下跌。煤炭板塊持續(xù)大跌。美股上漲，標(biāo)普500 和納斯達(dá)克創(chuàng)出歷史新高。亞馬遜和蘋果3季報(bào)都不及預(yù)期，股價(jià)在盤后交易時(shí)間大跌。

I. Some companies' earnings came in lower than expected 

A-share has corrected recently due to that some companies’ 3rd quarter earnings came in lower than expected. Take the example of a leading new energy vehicle producer. Its revenue in 3Q2021 rose 21.98% year-on-year (yoy) while net profit excluding one-time items fell 67% yoy. Its gross margin in 9M2021 fell from 20.75% in 9M2020 to 12.97% in 9M2021, down 7.78 percentage point. A leading electric battery manufacturer also saw its revenue in 3Q2021 up 125.9% yoy but net profit only rose 23.7% yoy. 

II. High-flying raw material costs

The reason is due to high-flying raw material costs. Lithium carbonate price was RMB 50k per ton at the end of 2020 and now rose to 180.6k per ton, up 261%. Lithium carbonate takes 50% of raw material cost in making an electric battery while an electric battery takes 50% of total costs in manufacturing an electric vehicle. Along with lithium carbonate, other raw materialsin making an electric battery also rose fast. The prices of cobalt, which is also an essential raw material in making electric batteries, rose from RMB 279k per ton at the end of 2020 to 400k per ton now, up 43%.

III. Cyclical factor

Another reason is that cyclical sectors are faced with downward pressure when economy is going down.Take the example of a leading machinery player in China. Its revenue and net profit was down 13.14% and 35.12% yoy respectively in 3Q2021 due to the cyclical downward trend in demand for its products and the high base in 3Q2020. 

IV. Big yet not strong

In 2019 manufacturing sectors took 27.2% of China’s GDP. Earnings in 3Q2021 of listed companies reflect that our manufacturing sectors are not as strong as expected and find it difficult to pass the rising costs to end-users. 

V. Sectors that earnings beat

There are some sectors that earnings came in better-than-expected such as raw material sector and banking sector. Raw material sector benefited from the rising raw material prices. The banking sector’s earnings rose on a low base in 3Q2020. Moreover,its non-interest income rose fast due to the asset management businessesflourish. But these sectors are not hot sectors in A-share.

VI. The American big tech companies' earnings missed

Both A-share and HK stocks fell. SP 500 and Nasdaq rose to record high. But both Amazon and Apple’s 3Q2021 earnings missed and stocks down in extended trading hours. 

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