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      壹 酒價下跌

      周末有報道稱某高端白酒終端價格下降，因年初執(zhí)行的開箱售賣政策可能生變。該高端白酒因收藏者眾多，而整箱售賣的白酒比起單瓶酒更易儲存和易鑒別真假，因此整箱的單瓶價格比開箱售賣的單瓶價格高300元左右。該公司政策變化之快確實超出預期。但投機資金之前助推該高端白酒價格上漲也是酒價下跌的一個重要原因。

      貳 有些購買不是為了消費

      我們在“茅股”崩盤背后曾經(jīng)指出過，該高端白酒被購買后一部分并沒有進入消費，而是被儲存起來了。有一部分可能是真的存起來作日后消費之用，但還有一些是通過加杠桿購買的，購買者期望日后酒價上漲從而獲取較高收益。如果酒價下跌，則這些加杠桿的資金就不得不忍痛拋售，畢竟資金是有成本的。

      叁 蝴蝶效應

      而推動酒價下跌的原因可能與該高端白酒的基本面并無太大關(guān)系。據(jù)報道該白酒收藏者中的一些地產(chǎn)開發(fā)商因資金緊張而拋出大量存貨，從而推動百酒價格下降。所以，看上去似乎是因為一個行業(yè)出問題而波及了另一個不相干的行業(yè)。但經(jīng)濟中各個行業(yè)都有千絲萬縷的聯(lián)系，蝴蝶效應其實在經(jīng)濟中并不少見。在經(jīng)濟上行期，我們能看到一榮俱榮；經(jīng)濟下行期，就是一損俱損。

      肆 總體市場沒有泡沫

      投資人需特別警惕那些有泡沫的領(lǐng)域，這些領(lǐng)域通常是人群聚集的地方，在經(jīng)濟下行期也易發(fā)生風險事件。A股市場總體估值較低，不存在泡沫。上證指數(shù)在2021年10月29日（下同）的靜態(tài)市盈率為13.7倍，處于歷史上18.4%的分位；深成指靜態(tài)市盈率為26.9倍，處在歷史上58.4%的分位。深成指估值相對較高主要是因為創(chuàng)業(yè)板估值較高。創(chuàng)業(yè)板指靜態(tài)市盈率為63.3倍，處在歷史上80.2%的分位。從估值角度看，創(chuàng)業(yè)板指可能存在一定的風險。創(chuàng)業(yè)板指前十大權(quán)重股中部分個股3季度業(yè)績低于預期，如這些個股基本面持續(xù)不佳可能會拖累板塊表現(xiàn)。

      伍 美股上周表現(xiàn)佳

      上周全球16個主要國家和地區(qū)指數(shù)上周漲跌各一半。其中恒生指數(shù)下跌2.9%，跌幅最大；上證指數(shù)和深成指分別下跌0.3%和1%。3季報部分公司業(yè)績不及預期，導致A股和港股調(diào)整。納斯達克指數(shù)、法國指數(shù)和標普500分別上漲2.7%、1.4%和1.3%，表現(xiàn)最佳。美股業(yè)績超預期，推動股市上行。10月中國官方制造業(yè)采購經(jīng)理人指數(shù)繼續(xù)下滑至49.2，表明經(jīng)濟仍在下行中。

I. Liquor prices fell 

It was reported that prices of a high-end liquor went down sharply lately, which was partly due to that its company allowed the liquor to be sold inboxes. From the beginning of 2021 till now this company did not allow the liquor to be sold in boxes hoping to curb its prices. But due to that the liquor is more easily stored, sold and certified in boxes, a bottle of liquor in boxes costs RMB 300 more than those sold in bottles. 

II. Speculation is playing a key role

As we analyzed in “The crash of those high-flying stocks “茅股”崩盤背后” this high-end liquor is not only bought for consumption but also for speculation. Some investors even leveraged to buy the liquor in hope for the prices to  go up further and make money. With the prices down these investors likely were forced to sell the liquor as their leverages became a burden. 

III. Butterfly effect 

It was also reported that some property developers sold the liquor as they were faced with liquidity crunch. While this seems to be a butterfly effect it is not unusual in economy as all things link together. One sector rises with other sectors when economy goes up and vice versa when economy goes down. 

IV. No bubbles in broad market 

At this moment investors should take some caution in those areas with bubbles. There seems to be no bubbles in the broad market: Shanghai Composite Index is valued at trailing-twelve-month price-to-earnings ratio (TTWPE) of 13.5x and at 18.3% percentile in about 30 years. But Chinext Board is valued at 63.3x at 80.2% percentile in history, which looks risky. Some top-10 weighting stocks in Chinext Board missed on 3Q2021 earnings. If their fundamentals deteriorate further then Chinext Board might suffer Davis double-killing.

V. The US stocks performed the best  

Both A-share and HK stocks fell last week due to the weaker-than-expected earnings in 3Q2021.  Hang Seng Index in HK market fell 2.9% and was the worst-performing index among global 16 major stock indexes. The US stocks led the global markets due to better-than-expected earnings in 3Q2021. China official Purchasing Managers’ Index in October came in at 49.2%, reflecting that China’s economy is still sliding. 

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