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      壹 漲價(jià)傳導(dǎo)到消費(fèi)終端

      今年投資人聽(tīng)到最多的一個(gè)詞恐怕就是“漲價(jià)”。水泥企業(yè)漲價(jià)之后化工企業(yè)漲價(jià)，漲價(jià)的理由都是原材料上漲。進(jìn)入四季度，我們看到價(jià)格壓力終于傳導(dǎo)到消費(fèi)品，消費(fèi)品企業(yè)開(kāi)始漲價(jià)，從醬油到調(diào)味料，從啤酒到食用油。

      貳價(jià)格壓力傳導(dǎo)需要時(shí)間

      這背后對(duì)應(yīng)的月度同比漲幅處在歷史高點(diǎn)的生產(chǎn)者價(jià)格指數(shù)向消費(fèi)者價(jià)格指數(shù)的傳遞。但是由于豬肉價(jià)格仍在相對(duì)低位，消費(fèi)者價(jià)格指數(shù)的同比漲幅仍然較低。我國(guó)9月份消費(fèi)者價(jià)格指數(shù)同比上漲0.7%，為4月以來(lái)的最低同比漲幅，主要是受到豬肉價(jià)格下跌的拖累。而生產(chǎn)者價(jià)格指數(shù)同比漲幅為10.7%，為1996年有數(shù)據(jù)以來(lái)的最高值。價(jià)格上漲通常需要半年時(shí)間從生產(chǎn)端轉(zhuǎn)到終端消費(fèi)者。因此，年初以來(lái)的原材料價(jià)格上漲現(xiàn)在傳導(dǎo)到了消費(fèi)品企業(yè)。

      叁 漲價(jià)不一定帶來(lái)凈利潤(rùn)的提高

      漲價(jià)對(duì)企業(yè)不一定是有益的。如果企業(yè)所處行業(yè)的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)格局比較好，漲價(jià)通常不會(huì)對(duì)產(chǎn)品的銷量產(chǎn)生負(fù)面影響。因此，漲價(jià)就會(huì)增加企業(yè)的凈利潤(rùn)。而如果企業(yè)所處的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)格局較差，則漲價(jià)通常會(huì)導(dǎo)致銷量下降，導(dǎo)致企業(yè)得不償失。曾經(jīng)有一家衛(wèi)生用品生產(chǎn)企業(yè)，在紙漿價(jià)格大幅上漲后提高衛(wèi)生紙價(jià)格。但是衛(wèi)生紙這種產(chǎn)品同質(zhì)性較高，品牌效應(yīng)較低，因此漲價(jià)導(dǎo)致其產(chǎn)品銷量的下降。

      肆 必需消費(fèi)品漲價(jià)通常比較成功

      必需消費(fèi)品通常提價(jià)會(huì)產(chǎn)生積極的效果，主要原因是這些產(chǎn)品的品牌力較強(qiáng)，消費(fèi)者也不會(huì)在意價(jià)格的小幅提升。而且這些企業(yè)漲價(jià)的形式也是多種多樣的，可以通過(guò)換包裝（如從大包裝換到小包裝）或者開(kāi)發(fā)出新產(chǎn)品等方式變相提高產(chǎn)品價(jià)格。對(duì)于客戶是企業(yè)的生產(chǎn)企業(yè)，他們的產(chǎn)品價(jià)格通常隨著原材料價(jià)格的變動(dòng)而變動(dòng)。因此，對(duì)于這些企業(yè)而言，漲價(jià)是有周期的。但對(duì)必需消費(fèi)品企業(yè)而言，漲價(jià)通常能夠持久。這背后主要是由于隨著個(gè)人可支配收入的提高，消費(fèi)者尋求更有品質(zhì)的生活。

      伍 美國(guó)公司漲價(jià)能力更強(qiáng)

      A股和港股下跌。A股28個(gè)行業(yè)中6個(gè)上漲，22個(gè)下跌。其中休閑服務(wù)、鋼鐵和采掘跌幅居前。而國(guó)防軍工、農(nóng)林牧漁和汽車(chē)漲幅居前。港股連續(xù)6天下跌。疫情加劇增加了投資人對(duì)中國(guó)4季度經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的擔(dān)憂，同時(shí)某地產(chǎn)商爆出債務(wù)問(wèn)題也打擊了投資者的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)偏好。但A股總體市場(chǎng)沒(méi)有泡沫，下行空間有限。3季報(bào)顯示美國(guó)上市公司基本都能夠傳導(dǎo)原材料上漲的壓力，業(yè)績(jī)超預(yù)期。美股再創(chuàng)新高。

I. Price increase in consumer sectors 

The most frequently mentioned words in 2021 should be price increase. Price increase has happened in various sectors. Before 4Q2021 price increase happened in mid-stream sectors such as petrochemical sector and cement sector etc. Now when it comes to the 4th quarter price increase happened in consumption sectors such as soy sauce, beer, etc. 

II. It takes time for price increase to be transmitted 

The reason is that Producer’s Price Index rose 10.7% year-on-year (yoy) in October, the fastest increase from 1996 when the data began to be released. Consumer’s Price Index rose 0.7% yoy in October due to the continuously falling swine prices. It usually takes half a year or 9 months for the price increase to be transmitted from producers' side to consumers' side. As raw material prices began to increase at the beginning of this year now the price increase has transmitted to consumers products. 

III. Results might differ

The results of products’ price differ from companies. Those companies in a relatively good competitive landscape would enjoy price increase as their products’ sales volume would not be hurt by price increase. For those companies that in very competitive sectors products’ price increase would hurt sales volume. As a result companies would be faced with less profit after products’ price increase. This happened to a well-known hygiene products producer more than 10 years ago. The company raised its toilet paper prices pressured by high-flying paper pulpprices. But toilet paper products do not differ too much from one brand to another. And the price increase pushed consumers to buy other brands at lower prices.

IV. Consumer stables companies usually enjoy price increase 

In general consumer stables can enjoy price increase due to their strong brand names. The rising disposable income of consumers make them look for better quality of life and support price increases of stables.

V. The US companies can transmit raw material prices pressure well 

Both A-share and HK stocks fell.Market is concerned about the economy prospects and cyclical fell sharply. But A-share’s valuation in general has no bubbles, which means that the broad market does not have much room to fall. The US stocks reached another record high boosted by better-than-expected 3Q earnings.

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