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      壹 長(zhǎng)期利率下降

      著名經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家辜鴻銘在《大衰退—宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)的圣杯》中指出：企業(yè)陷入資產(chǎn)負(fù)債表衰退時(shí)，需用資金還債。長(zhǎng)此以往，企業(yè)對(duì)債務(wù)產(chǎn)生厭惡，會(huì)患上“債務(wù)抵觸綜合證”。這意味著即使企業(yè)已經(jīng)償還了債務(wù)，也不會(huì)去借債。當(dāng)企業(yè)用原本還債的資金進(jìn)行投資時(shí)，需求回升了，但是因?yàn)榻鑲枨蟛蛔?，所以利率下降。這就造成名義國(guó)內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值的增速超過長(zhǎng)期利率。

      貳 下降趨勢(shì)持續(xù)很長(zhǎng)時(shí)間

      美國(guó)曾經(jīng)在1929年大蕭條之后和2000年互聯(lián)網(wǎng)泡沫破滅后出現(xiàn)過這種現(xiàn)象。而一旦國(guó)內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值的增速超過長(zhǎng)期利率，則需要很長(zhǎng)的時(shí)間才能逆轉(zhuǎn)這種關(guān)系。以美國(guó)1929年經(jīng)濟(jì)大蕭條為例，直到1959年長(zhǎng)期利率才回到大蕭條之前的水平，也就是花費(fèi)了整整30年的時(shí)間。日本在上世紀(jì)90年代的經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退之后，也面臨長(zhǎng)期利率持續(xù)低迷的狀況。

      叁 量寬并不是好對(duì)策

      辜鴻銘指出當(dāng)經(jīng)濟(jì)面臨資產(chǎn)負(fù)債表衰退時(shí)，采用單純的量化寬松政策是錯(cuò)誤的應(yīng)對(duì)方法。他舉例子說(shuō)明：如果一個(gè)病人服藥病沒好，就把藥量增加10倍，那病也不會(huì)好。從日本的情況看，無(wú)論是量化寬松1、2還是安倍的三支箭都沒有給經(jīng)濟(jì)帶來(lái)實(shí)質(zhì)的改善。日本經(jīng)濟(jì)增速持續(xù)處在低位，長(zhǎng)期利率也持續(xù)下行，30年國(guó)債收益率近幾年已經(jīng)下降到1以下，處在歷史最低水平。辜鴻銘認(rèn)為應(yīng)對(duì)資產(chǎn)負(fù)債表衰退應(yīng)采用積極的財(cái)政政策，亦即當(dāng)企業(yè)縮小債務(wù)規(guī)模的同時(shí)，政府必需擴(kuò)大債務(wù)規(guī)模。這其實(shí)和達(dá)利奧所說(shuō)的寬松去杠桿是一致的。

      肆 我國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)增速仍會(huì)相對(duì)較高

      當(dāng)前，我國(guó)房地產(chǎn)企業(yè)類似資產(chǎn)負(fù)債表衰退：一方面償還債務(wù)，一方面對(duì)土地拍賣不積極。從日本和美國(guó)的經(jīng)歷可推斷，我國(guó)長(zhǎng)期利率可能會(huì)就此下行，且下行較長(zhǎng)時(shí)間。但中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)和美日相比具有較強(qiáng)的韌性，因此經(jīng)濟(jì)增速仍然能夠保持在相對(duì)較高的水平。同時(shí)，我國(guó)在貨幣政策方面一直非?？酥疲窃谪?cái)政政策方面發(fā)力。這種應(yīng)對(duì)措施有助于企業(yè)修復(fù)資產(chǎn)負(fù)債表。

      伍 上周周期領(lǐng)跌

      A股和港股上周繼續(xù)下跌，在全球16個(gè)主要國(guó)家和地區(qū)的指數(shù)中表現(xiàn)落后。休閑服務(wù)、鋼鐵、采掘和化工跌幅居前。美政府推出1萬(wàn)億美金的基建刺激計(jì)劃，10年期美國(guó)國(guó)債收益率下行。10月非農(nóng)就業(yè)數(shù)據(jù)超預(yù)期，美股連續(xù)7個(gè)交易日上漲。

I. Long-term interest rate goes down 

In his famous book “The Holy Grail of Macroeconomic Lessons from Japan Great Recession” Richard Koo pointed out that when enterprises are in balance sheet recession, they would use all of their free money to pay back debt and would become reluctant to borrow money in the long run. Once enterprises pay back debt, they would use the free money to invest and GDP would go up with demand coming back. But long-term interest rate would come down as demand for loans would still be maintained at low levels. 

II. The down trend would go for a long time 

As a result, GDP growth rate would be higher than long-term interest rate. This happened in the US in the Great Depression in 1929 and internet bubbles in 2000. Take the example of the Great Depression long-term interest rate did not come back to pre-depression levels until 1959, i.e., it took 30 years to reverse the down trend of interest rate. Japan was also faced with low interest rate from the depression in the 1990s. 

III. Fiscal policy is the right way

Richard considered active fiscal policy as the right way to deal with balance sheet recession rather than quantitative easing. What happened in Japan illustrated that whether quantitative easing one, two or the three arrows of Abe did not improve economy substantially. Japan’s economy has been at low growth rate for years. So is long-term interest rate.

IV. A different recession

China’s property sector is at similar situation of balance sheet recession. While long-term interest rate would go down China’s GDP growth rate would be at relatively high-levels compared with the developed nations. Moreover, China adopts active fiscal policy to stimulate economy, which as mentioned above is the right way to help businesses to repair their balance sheets and stimulate demand.

V. Cyclical sectors fell the most

Both A-share and HK stocks fell last week and lagged behind the sixteen global major indexes. The cyclical sectors fell the most while fishery and farming,electronics and telecommunication sector rose the most. The US infrastructure bill valued at US$ 1 trillion passed in the congress and the 10-year treasury yield came down. The non-farm payroll data in October came in better than expected. The US stocks rose for 7 trading days in a row.  

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