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      壹 股市泡沫危害更大

      資產(chǎn)泡沫在歷史上從不曾缺席。歐洲早期的三大泡沫--英國南海公司泡沫、法國密西西比股市泡沫和荷蘭郁金香泡沫以及2000年互聯(lián)網(wǎng)泡沫等都在歷史上產(chǎn)生過深遠的影響。相對而言，商品泡沫中受影響的投資人范圍較小，其對經(jīng)濟沖擊的程度較??；而股市泡沫通常涉及的人群較廣，價值毀滅的程度更深更廣，一般來說股市泡沫破滅通常伴隨著經(jīng)濟危機的發(fā)生。

      貳 郁金香泡沫

      以歐洲早期三大泡沫為例，荷蘭的郁金香熱是最早的非理性資產(chǎn)泡沫實例之一。在1635年之前，郁金香球莖的價格已經(jīng)持續(xù)上漲了很多年。1635到1636年，荷蘭郁金香合同上漲幅度是5900%。1637年5月暴跌99%。和泡沫通常的情況一樣，郁金香狂熱吞噬了荷蘭廣泛的人群。在鼎盛時期，一些郁金香球莖的價格一度超過了一套豪華住宅的價格。

      叁 南海公司泡沫

      南海公司成立于1711年，英國政府承諾其壟斷與南美西班牙殖民地的所有貿(mào)易。投資者預計東印度公司的成功會重演，搶購南海公司的股票。隨著董事會們在南海（現(xiàn)在的南美）大肆宣揚難以想象的財富，公司的股票在1720年上半年上漲了約8倍，從1月的128鎊上漲至6月的1050鎊。隨后幾個月暴跌，引發(fā)了一場嚴重的經(jīng)濟危機。

      肆 密西西比股市泡沫

      而法國密西西比股市泡沫是最具現(xiàn)代特點的泡沫。這個泡沫的始作俑者是約翰·勞。他認為在就業(yè)不足的情況下，增加貨幣供給可以在不提高物價水平的前提下增加就業(yè)機會并增加國民產(chǎn)出。一旦產(chǎn)出增加之后，對貨幣的需求也會相應跟上來。在實現(xiàn)了充分就業(yè)之后，貨幣擴張能夠吸引外部資源，進一步增加產(chǎn)出。約翰勞將其理論付諸實踐，成功地將其所擁有的印度公司的股票成為法國貨幣發(fā)行的抵押品。但是，大量貨幣發(fā)行導致了嚴重的通貨膨脹，而印度公司的股票價格也隨之暴跌。泡沫的歷史再次印證了黑格爾所說：人類從歷史中得到的唯一教訓就是從不曾從歷史中學到任何教訓。

      伍 港股續(xù)跌，美股續(xù)漲

      A股上漲，港股下跌。周期股表現(xiàn)領先。受到輝瑞新冠特效藥消息影響，航空股、博彩股表現(xiàn)出色，而醫(yī)藥股表現(xiàn)低迷。中國人民銀行推出利率為1.75%額度估計在1萬億人民幣的碳減排支持工具，有利于提高市場總體流動性。美股受到1萬億美金基建計劃的消息刺激繼續(xù)上漲，卡特彼勒、約翰迪爾等基建股表現(xiàn)領先。

I. Stock bubbles are more dangerous 

Asset bubbles happened from time to time in history. Some asset bubbles are very famous such as the three bubbles in earlier Europe and the internet bubbles in 2000. Less people are affected in commodity bubbles than in stock bubbles. The latter usually would evolve into economic crises. 

II. Tulip bulb bubble

Take the example of the three bubbles in earlier Europe. The tulip bulb bubble is the earliest one. The prices of tulip bulb rose for many years before 1635. But the contract of tulip bulb rallied 5900% from 1635 to 1636. But in May 1637 it fell 99%. The mania of tulip bulb was so out of rage that at one time a tulip bulb cost a mansion. 

III. The British South Sea Company 

The British South Sea Company was set up in 1711 and got monopoly of the British trade with South America. Investors thought that this company would replicate the success of East India Company and poured their money into this company’s stock. The stock rose 8 times in 1H1720 but fell sharply in 2H1720. This caused an economic crisis in the UK. 

IV. Mississippi Bubble

The France Mississippi Stock Bubble happened due to John Law. He considered that increasing money supply would improve employment without causing inflation when economy was in subemployment. And when employment improves output would increase and so do demand for money  supply. When economy is in full employment investment would come back and output would increase further. He then succeeded in issuing money in France on the base of his company’s stock. But contrary to Law’s theory the massive moneysupply caused serious inflation. His company’s stock price fell sharply. The bubbles in history tell us a simple lesson: the only lesson that human learned from history is that they never learn any lessons.

V. The US stocks continued to rise 

A-share rose while HK stocks fell. Non-ferrous metal rose the most while medicine stocks fell the most due to the COVID-19 drug invented by Pfizer. The People’s Bank of China would issue carbon-emission support facility at 1.75% with an estimated amount of RMB 1 trillion. The US stocks continued to rise due to the infrastructure bill passed over the weekend. Infrastructure stocks rallied such as John Deere and Caterpillar.

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