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      壹 房地產(chǎn)政策有所放松

      A股和港股周三都探底回升，A股收盤微跌，港股收盤恒生指數(shù)上漲0.74%。周三戲劇性的V型反轉(zhuǎn)主要是由于房地產(chǎn)板塊的崛起。11月9日，中國銀行間市場交易商協(xié)會舉行房企代表座談會，部分房企有計劃近期在銀行間市場注冊發(fā)行債務融資工具。這意味著房地產(chǎn)企業(yè)境內(nèi)發(fā)債的相關政策會有所松動，近期將會有房企在公開市場發(fā)債融資，同時，銀行等機構投資者也會通過債券投資等方式重新為房企“輸血”，防止房企資金鏈進一步惡化。盤后有一則有關按揭額度放松的消息流傳，但隨后被銀行方面否認。

      貳 通脹超預期

      周三北上資金凈流出118億人民幣，為7月26日以來單日凈流出最大金額。7月26日當日北上凈流出128億人民幣。北上資金為什么在時隔近4個月后又大幅流出呢？可能是與10月份的生產(chǎn)者價格指數(shù)的同比漲幅有關。10月生產(chǎn)者價格指數(shù)同比上漲13.5%，為歷史最高水平。但10月以來，隨著國家對煤炭價格的不斷調(diào)控，上游資源類產(chǎn)品價格持續(xù)下跌。我們認為10月份PPI同比漲幅很可能就是高點。因此，外資的凈流出很可能是膝跳反射，不具有持續(xù)性。

      叁 流動性邊際改善

      周三收盤發(fā)布的10月份社融和信貸數(shù)據(jù)顯示流動性邊際改善。10月社融增量比去年同期多1970億元，扭轉(zhuǎn)了過去三個月同比下滑的趨勢；同時新增信貸也同比多增1364億元，逆轉(zhuǎn)過去兩個月的下滑趨勢。因為專項債發(fā)行和居民中長期貸款的改善，這應歸功于730 政治局會議之后一系列的糾偏動作。A股從9月觸及高點以來持續(xù)下跌2個月。未來A股如何走應取決于經(jīng)濟下滑程度和政策出臺力度二者的合力。

      肆 美國通脹超預期

      美國10月消費者價格指數(shù)（CPI）創(chuàng)出30年新高。10月CPI同比上漲6.2%，超市場預期?？鄢茉春褪称返暮诵腃PI上漲6.2%，為1990年11月以來的最高月度漲幅。燃料油、能源、二手車價格都大幅上漲，推動了消費者價格指數(shù)的上漲。超預期的通脹意味著美聯(lián)儲加息的步伐可能要快于市場預期。目前市場預計明年將會有兩次加息，有44%的概率加息三次。高于預期的CPI促使美股回落，科技股全面下跌，黃金價格上漲，國債收益率上漲。同時，上周美國申請失業(yè)救濟人數(shù)也降低到了疫情發(fā)生以來的最低水平，顯示美國經(jīng)濟持續(xù)在復蘇。

I.Property sector rallied 

Both A-share and HK stocks made a U-turn on Wednesday. At closing A-share fell just slightly from Tuesday’s closing prices while Hang Seng Index rose 0.74%. The property sector’s rally contributed to the U-turn. A couple of good news pushed the sector higher. National Association of Financial Market Institutional Investors convened a meeting of property developers on November 9th, 2021. It was reported that some national property developers owned by central government were allowed to issue debt in interbank market and banks would buy bonds of property developers again. These measures would prevent property developers from capital strain rupture. 

II. Liquidity was easing to some extent

Moreover, the aggregate social financing (ASF) in October showed that liquidity was easing to some extent. ASF in October increased by RMB 197 billion year-on-year (yoy), reversing the down trend over the last three months. Also new loans increased by RMB 136.4 billion, reversing the down trend over the last two months. The liquidity expansion should be owed to the increased special project debt issuance and the residents’ medium- to long-term loans increase. These changes came after July 30th Politburo meeting. 

III. PPI grew higher than expected

North-bound capital saw the largest daily outflow at RMB11.8 billion, only lower than that on July 26th which saw net outflow of RMB 12.8 billion. The outflow of north-bound capital was triggered by October Producer price index (PPI),which rose 13.5% year-on-year and was the largest monthly increase in history. We believe that PPI should peak in October as government has taken various measures to control coal prices since October. The coal prices halved from its peak level. As such north-bound capital would come back later. A-share has corrected for two months since mid-September. How it performs in the future would be determined by policies and economic trend.

IV. The inflation in the US 

The US October consumer price index rose 6.2% yoy. It was the largest monthly increase yoy from Nov. 1990. The US stocks fell and tech stocks crashed. Gold prices rallied and treasury yield rose as well. Currently market has priced in two interest rate hikes in 2022.

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