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      壹 房地產(chǎn)板塊大幅上漲

      受政策利好刺激，房地產(chǎn)板塊周四上漲5.85%，漲幅在A股28個行業(yè)中第一，其次是建筑材料和非銀金融，分別上漲5.42%和3.26%。房地產(chǎn)和建筑材料板塊很多公司都上漲了10厘米或者20厘米。

      貳 政策可能不盡如預(yù)期

      市場在歡呼房地產(chǎn)政策放松，但盤后一個關(guān)于某市放松房地產(chǎn)限購的傳聞被證偽。同時，遼寧省住房城鄉(xiāng)建設(shè)廳近日會同相關(guān)部門聯(lián)合印發(fā)《遼寧省持續(xù)整治規(guī)范房地產(chǎn)市場秩序行動方案》，重點整治未依法依規(guī)取得土地即開工建設(shè)，未按期動工或中止開發(fā)建設(shè)導(dǎo)致住宅項目用地構(gòu)成閑置土地，房屋存在滲漏、開裂、空鼓等突出質(zhì)量問題，未按房屋買賣合同約定如期交付，實際交付房屋與樣板間或銷售宣傳資料嚴重不一致等行為。這說明地方政府對房地產(chǎn)企業(yè)仍然采取比較嚴厲的監(jiān)管政策，也說明政策并不如市場期望的那樣寬松。

      叁 估值會提升

      我們判斷當前政策力度僅是讓房地產(chǎn)企業(yè)能夠活下去，離全面寬松可能還有很長的一段路要走。同時，當前放松政策并不會對房地產(chǎn)企業(yè)的基本面產(chǎn)生立竿見影的效果。因為現(xiàn)金流緊張，年底房地產(chǎn)企業(yè)不會積極參加土地拍賣。另外，房地產(chǎn)企業(yè)的銷售和新開工等數(shù)據(jù)在今年4季度和明年1季度也會面臨一定的挑戰(zhàn)，很可能會同比持續(xù)負增長。市場前期因政策等因素對房地產(chǎn)及相關(guān)板塊如建材家居等極其悲觀，導(dǎo)致這些板塊的估值回落到比較低的水平。我們認為寬松政策有助于房地產(chǎn)及相關(guān)板塊估值的提升，隨后板塊應(yīng)等待業(yè)績底的確認。

      肆 雙十一銷售情況良好

      阿里巴巴發(fā)布消息稱從11月1日到11日0時45分，已有382個品牌在天貓雙11的成交額超過1億元。京東也在推特上表示，從10月31日晚到11月11日，雙十一的銷售額達到人民幣3111億元。因為國家對互聯(lián)網(wǎng)企業(yè)的整治，今年雙十一沒有大規(guī)模的宣傳活動。同時，消費者也比較理性，而有些商品可能平時購買更劃算。網(wǎng)購已成為中國消費者一個重要的購物渠道，有沒有雙十一消費者都會在網(wǎng)上買東西。

      伍 美國通脹可能已到頂點

      周三美股科技股反彈。美國10月消費者價格指數(shù)漲幅超預(yù)期，但可能是頂點。作為消費者價格指數(shù)的領(lǐng)先指標，干散貨運價指數(shù)在今年10月7日達到5650的十年多的歷史高點后，持續(xù)下跌。目前已下跌50%，達到6月以來的低點。

I. Property sector rallied 

A-share rallied on Thursday boosted by easing policies targeted property sector. Property sector rose 5.82%, the best-performing sector in A-share. Building material and non-bank financials were the second and third best-performing sector. Each rose 5.42% and 3.82% respectively. 

II. Policies might not be that favorite 

While market sentiment was boosted by policy, the news that some city loosened property purchasing policy proved to be a fake one. Moreover, Housing and Urban-rural Development Office of Liaoning Province issued “The action plan to continue the comprehensive improvement of housing markets in Liaoning Province” on Wednesday with an aim to punish those property developers that do not buy lands legally, do not build houses as regulated, and whose houses built have quality issues etc. This shows that local governments still regulate property developers strictly. 

III. Valuation would improve 

Nevertheless, the liquidity easing from central government would help improve the valuation levels of property developers and those related sectors such as building material sector etc.These sectors have suffered serious valuation contraction over the last couple of months due to regulation from both central and local governments. But the fundamentals of the property sector would still be faced with challenges in 4Q2021 and 1Q2022. The sales volume and new projects might decline year-on-year. Also property developers are not expected to buy land actively in the coming land auction due to their capital shortage and cash flow issues. It takes time for property developers to see their earnings bottom out.

IV. The inflation in the US might peak

Both A-share and HK stocks rose. The US tech stocks rebounded. Some analysts believed that the final two months of 2021 could see inflation ease as the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) has declined by 50% from its October peak and recently hit its lowest level since June, tracking a decline in global shipping rates. The US consumer price follows BDI closely.  

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