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      壹 周一A股和港股調(diào)整

      周一A股和港股并沒有延續(xù)上周的強(qiáng)勁走勢雙雙調(diào)整。A股創(chuàng)業(yè)板跌幅居前，有可能是受到北京證券交易所開市的影響。房地產(chǎn)板塊也在上周大幅上漲后調(diào)整，A股和港股房地產(chǎn)板塊分別下跌0.9%和0.8%。但是，A股與房地產(chǎn)相關(guān)的建材、家電和家居板塊均延續(xù)上漲態(tài)勢，這些板塊在很大程度上與存量地產(chǎn)帶來的更新需求有關(guān)。受到房地產(chǎn)板塊走勢拖累，這些板塊的估值也達(dá)到較低水平。

      貳 十月經(jīng)濟(jì)數(shù)據(jù)喜憂參半

      10月份經(jīng)濟(jì)數(shù)據(jù)顯示工業(yè)生產(chǎn)和消費(fèi)均超市場預(yù)期。10月份社會消費(fèi)品零售總額數(shù)據(jù)同比增長4.9%，與2020年兩年平均增速為4.6%，高于市場預(yù)期。但4.6%的同比增速仍是1995年有數(shù)據(jù)以來的最低水平。工業(yè)增加值同比增速為3.5%，與2020年兩年平均為5.2%，仍處在歷史較低水平。投資方面，基建投資增速同比轉(zhuǎn)正，但是因缺乏優(yōu)質(zhì)基建項(xiàng)目，對未來基建投資增速的回升市場沒有很高的預(yù)期。1-10月房地產(chǎn)開發(fā)投資同比增長7.2%，較1-9月份增速8.8%回落?？紤]到目前房企的資金緊張狀況，預(yù)計(jì)未來半年到一年房地產(chǎn)開發(fā)投資有可能會持續(xù)回落，對經(jīng)濟(jì)也會造成拖累。制造業(yè)投資向好，1-10月份制造業(yè)投資同比增長14.2%，兩年平均為4.45%，恢復(fù)到2019年3月的水平。綜上，10月的經(jīng)濟(jì)數(shù)據(jù)有喜有憂。但是，工業(yè)增加值、消費(fèi)及制造業(yè)投資超預(yù)期能否持續(xù)到年底可能存疑。

      叁 刺激政策有可能出臺

      考慮到未來房地產(chǎn)市場仍有下行壓力，政府可能會考慮出臺政策措施，從而保持經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的穩(wěn)定性。有可能受益于政策刺激的板塊包括消費(fèi)、制造業(yè)投資相關(guān)板塊等。

      肆 標(biāo)普500每股收益與中國GDP的相關(guān)性為90%

      根據(jù)美國銀行策略分析師，中國占標(biāo)普500上市公司收入比例平均為5%，但在有些上市公司可能會高達(dá)60%。中國中產(chǎn)階級的人口超過美國總?cè)丝凇γ绹径?，中國市場空間巨大。同時(shí)，這些公司利用中國的低制造成本取得了較快的盈利增速。過去30年，標(biāo)普500上市公司利潤率擴(kuò)張的80%來自于全球化。當(dāng)前中國經(jīng)濟(jì)放緩并沒有完全反應(yīng)到美股的估值上。來自中國的銷售收入占比排名的前50家標(biāo)普500公司，其當(dāng)前估值高于歷史平均估值一個標(biāo)準(zhǔn)差，因?yàn)檫@些公司的盈利增速要快于其他美國的跨國公司以及本土公司。

I. Both A-share and HK stocks corrected on Monday

Chinext Board fell the most, likely due to the opening of Beijing Stock Exchange. Property sector fell 0.9% and 0.8% respectively in A-share and HK market respectively after last week rally.But construction material, home appliance and furniture sector rose. These sectors are correlated with existing homes and their valuation has been pressed to very low levels due to market concern on property sector. 

II. The October economic data came in mixed 

Industrial value-added and retail sales were above expectation but still at low levels in history. Industrial value-added grew 3.5% year-on-year(yoy) in October. Combined 2020 and 2021 industrial value-added grew 5.2% yoy,which is still at a relatively low level in history. Retail sales grew 4.9% yoy. Combined 2020 and 2021 retail sales grew 4.6% yoy, which is the lowest level from 1995 when the data began to be released. Manufacturing investment grew 14.2% from January to October 2021. Combined 2020 and 2021 manufacturing investment grew 4.45% yoy, which was the level in March 2019. Property investment grew 7.2% from January to October 2021, down from 8.8% in September. 

III. There might be stimulus measures 

Given the capital constrains of property developers, property investment might see declining growth rate in the next 6-12 months. We judge that government would bring up with more stimulus measures, given the down pressure due to the property sector’s slowdown. Consumption and manufacturing should benefit from these policies.

IV. The US stocks correlate with China economy 

China accounts for an average of 5% of SP 500 companies’ sales and more than 60% for some. According to Bank of America the correlation between SP 500 earnings per share and China economy is 90%. Also more than 80% of margin expansion for the SP500 is due to globalization over the last 30 years. Currently those companies ranked at the top 50 based on their revenue from China are valued at one standard deviation higher than their historical average and also higher than other multinationals and domestic companies in the US.

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