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      壹美元上漲

      近期美元和人民幣同步上漲引起很多投資者的關(guān)注。截止11月16日，美元指數(shù)上漲到95以上，創(chuàng)下2020年7月以來(lái)的新高。年初至今，美元指數(shù)上漲6.2%。美元上漲主要是受到加息預(yù)期的推動(dòng)。當(dāng)前市場(chǎng)期待明年7月份美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)第一次加息。回顧2013年的第一次縮減債券規(guī)模，美元指數(shù)也是在加息預(yù)期升溫后開(kāi)始直線上漲。具體請(qǐng)參見(jiàn)這次也許不一樣。

      貳 歐洲和日本量化寬松政策持續(xù)

      此次美元指數(shù)上漲與歐元和日元走弱也有一定關(guān)系。不同于美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)回收流動(dòng)性的舉措，歐央行和日本央行都表示將會(huì)持續(xù)支持經(jīng)濟(jì)，量化寬松無(wú)止境。歐央行早前更是提到了2011年的歐債危機(jī)中所犯的提早收回支持經(jīng)濟(jì)的錯(cuò)誤，表示絕不會(huì)再次犯下相同的錯(cuò)誤。日本央行總裁黑田東彥強(qiáng)調(diào)，央行已準(zhǔn)備好維持大規(guī)模的刺激措施。自去年疫情以來(lái)，日本央行便開(kāi)足馬力買(mǎi)入日本股市，推動(dòng)股指一路上行，日經(jīng)225指數(shù)最大漲幅已超過(guò)88%。11月12日，日經(jīng)新聞報(bào)道，日本政府計(jì)劃實(shí)施規(guī)模超40萬(wàn)億日元（約合人民幣2.24萬(wàn)億元）的新一輪經(jīng)濟(jì)刺激計(jì)劃，這一規(guī)模接近日本2020年4月創(chuàng)紀(jì)錄的新冠援助方案。

      叁 與經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇進(jìn)程有關(guān)

      在2008年全球金融危機(jī)之后，美、歐、日三個(gè)發(fā)達(dá)經(jīng)濟(jì)體的經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇進(jìn)程就以美國(guó)最快，日本次之，而歐洲最慢。此次新冠危機(jī)，從三個(gè)經(jīng)濟(jì)體目前的情況看，仍然是美國(guó)表現(xiàn)最佳。美元指數(shù)中歐元和日元占比是最大的兩個(gè)貨幣，分別為57.6% 和13.6%。鑒于歐洲和日本持續(xù)的寬松政策和相對(duì)緩慢的經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇進(jìn)程，未來(lái)歐元和日元承壓而美元走強(qiáng)是大概率事件。

      肆 人民幣走強(qiáng)

      近期，人民幣兌美元匯率持續(xù)上漲，達(dá)到6.38，為2021年6月以來(lái)的最高水平。人民幣匯率上漲應(yīng)與10月份的經(jīng)濟(jì)數(shù)據(jù)表現(xiàn)超預(yù)期有關(guān)，具體請(qǐng)參見(jiàn)如果經(jīng)濟(jì)增速放緩...。同時(shí)，近期中美關(guān)系不斷出現(xiàn)改善信號(hào)，外資對(duì)中國(guó)資產(chǎn)的熱情重新點(diǎn)燃。這也是人民幣匯率走強(qiáng)的原因之一。

      伍 喝酒吃藥行情

      A股繼續(xù)調(diào)整，港股上漲。醫(yī)藥和消費(fèi)板塊表現(xiàn)較好，喝酒吃藥行情再現(xiàn)。而周期行業(yè)和前期熱門(mén)板塊跌幅較大。北京交易所股票在經(jīng)歷周一的大幅上漲后，周二大多調(diào)整。港股連續(xù)6個(gè)交易日上漲，前期備受打擊的醫(yī)藥、科技和教育板塊漲幅領(lǐng)先。美國(guó)10月零售數(shù)據(jù)超預(yù)期，顯示盡管通脹水平很高，但消費(fèi)者依然在消費(fèi)。美股上漲。

I. The US dollar was strong

Recently both RMB exchange rate against the US dollar and the US dollar index rallied. The US dollar index was above 95 on Tuesday and rose 6.2% year-to-date. The recent rally of the US dollar index was mainly driven by the expectation of interest rate lift in 2022. Currently market expects the Federal Reserve to raise interest rate in July 2022. In the first taper in 2013 and 2014 the US dollar index began to rally in the mid-2014 when market began to price in the interest rate lift expectation. 

II. The European Central Bank would maintain its supporting policies 

Moreover, the US withdrew liquidity earlier than Europe and Japan. The US dollar index is composed of 57.6% Euro and 13.6% Japan Yen and other currencies. The Euro and Japan Yen are the largest two components of the US dollar index. Recently the European Central Bank has reiterated its support for economy and said that it would not repeat the mistake made in 2011. In 2011 due to that the European Central Bank exited from quantitative easing policy earlier than expected, the Euro economy fell into depression again after the 2008 global financial crises.

III. So would Japan

The Japanese Bank also expressed the opinion that it would inject liquidity into economy if needed without hesitation. Moreover, Japanese government brought up with a new stimulus package valued at Japanese Yen 40 trillion (RMB 2.24 trillion). Given the quantitative easing policy of Europe and Japan, the Euro and Japanese Yen would be faced with downward pressure and the US dollar would strengthen. 

IV. RMB strengthen is supported by economy 

The RMB against the US dollar has been strong recently and reached 6.38 on Tuesday, which was the level in June 2020. It should be due to the better-than-expected economy datain October. Also international investors showed enthusiasm to Chinese assets.

V. Spirits and medicine sector rose in A-share

A-share fell while HK stocks rose. The spirits and medicine sector led A-share and HK market. HK stocks rose for six days in arow. The US retail sales in October came in higher than expected, which shows that despite the high inflation the US consumers still spent. The US stocks rose due to the better economic data. 

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