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      壹 別人家的股市

      我們在2021年8月發(fā)表了別人家的股市。自8月以來，別人家的股市表現(xiàn)越來越好，而A股和港股則表現(xiàn)持續(xù)落后。在全球16個主要國家和地區(qū)的指數(shù)中，有6個國家和地區(qū)指數(shù)年初以來漲幅超過20%，法國、俄羅斯、印度SENSEX30、標普500、納斯達克和中國臺灣地區(qū)分別上漲28.8%、27.4%、25.7%、25.2%、23.9%和20.2%。4個國家的指數(shù)上漲超過10%但低于20%，德國DAX、道瓊斯、英國富時100和澳大利亞標普200指數(shù)分別上漲18.4%、18.1%、13.4%和11.9%。上漲低于10%的是日經(jīng)225、韓國綜合指數(shù)、深成指、上證指數(shù)，分別上漲8.2%、3.7%、1.9%和1.7%。恒生指數(shù)和巴西股指是僅有的兩個下跌的股指，分別下跌5.8%和12.3%。

      貳 上漲有上漲的理由

      發(fā)達國家股市漲幅較高，一方面是發(fā)達國家一直保持著支持經(jīng)濟的寬松政策，對股市提供了流動性支持。具體可參見為什么美元和人民幣同步走強？另一方面，發(fā)達國家的經(jīng)濟周期慢于我國經(jīng)濟周期。今年前三季度，歐美日的經(jīng)濟仍處于庫存周期上行期，企業(yè)業(yè)績增速喜人，支撐股市上漲。但3季度以后，發(fā)達國家的經(jīng)濟周期也會逐漸進入下行期，這意味著股市也可能會面臨下行壓力。但是，這種下行也要視經(jīng)濟走勢。近期，美國通過了1.2萬億美金（約7.7萬億人民幣）的基建法案，而日本也將推出價值2.4萬億人民幣一攬子支持經(jīng)濟計劃。因此未來即使經(jīng)濟下行，可能也會較平緩。俄羅斯股市走強應與原油價格上漲緊密相關，而印度股市走強則是強有力的貨幣政策支撐。

      叁 對A股和港股無需過度悲觀

      A股走平，港股小熊市，主要是因為我國相對嚴謹?shù)呢泿耪吆拓斦咭约敖?jīng)濟進入下行周期。7月份以來的一些政策變化也引發(fā)了市場風險偏好的降低。我們預判經(jīng)濟應該在明年1-2季度企穩(wěn)，之前預期的刺激政策也會隨著經(jīng)濟的下行壓力增加而逐漸出臺。因此，當前估值水平下，我們認為對市場不應該過于悲觀。

      肆 美股調(diào)整

      A股縮量上漲，港股縮量下跌。A股26個行業(yè)中，19個行業(yè)上漲，7個行業(yè)下跌。新能源板塊領漲，銀行、食品飲料和農(nóng)林牧漁跌幅居前。因勞動力短缺和材料成本上升，美國10月新屋開工數(shù)下跌0.7%，折年率降至152萬套。受經(jīng)濟數(shù)據(jù)低于預期影響，美股調(diào)整。股神巴菲特據(jù)報道連續(xù)四個季度凈賣出股票。

I. Other people's stock market 

We published “Other people’s stock market”別人家的股市 in August 2021. From then on major stock market indexes continued to diverge. Among the 16 global major stock indexes 6 rose above 20% year-to-date (the same below). They are France,Russia, India Sensex30, SP500, Nasdaq and China Taiwan, which rose  28.8%、27.4%、25.7%、25.2%、23.9% and 20.2% respectively. Four stock indexes rose between 10-20%. They are Germany DAX, Dow Jones, FTSE100 and Australia SP200, which rose 18.4%、18.1%、13.4% and 11.9%.  Fourstock indexes rose less than 10%. They are Nikkei 225,  South Korea, Shenzhen Composite Index and Shanghai Composite Index, which rose 8.2%、3.7%、1.9% and 1.7% respectively. There are only two stock indexes falling. They are Brazil and Hang Seng Index, which fell 12.3% and 5.8% respectively. 

II. The reasons behind the rally

That developed nations performed well this year was due to both supporting monetary policy and economic cycle. Their economies are on an upward stage of an inventory cycle before 3Q2021. Yet from 3Q2021 developed nations would go on the downward stage of an inventory cycle. Hence, their stock markets might be pressured in the future. Russia stocks performed well due to the rising oil prices. India stock market was boosted mainly by easing monetary policy. 

III. No need to be too pessimistic 

The lackluster performance of A-share and HK stocks was caused by stringent monetary and fiscal policy partly. Also China’s economy was on a downward stage of an inventory cycle. Moreover, some regulations from July decreased market risk preference to some extent. We are optimistic that supporting policies would come out eventually with the economy activities cooling down further. Hence, one should not be too pessimistic about China's stock market.

IV. The US stocks corrected

A-share rose while HK stocks fell with contracted volume.The October housingstarts in the US came in lower than expected due to high building material costs and labor shortage. The US stocks corrected. It was reported that Warren Buffett has been selling stocks this year.

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