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       壹 今年前三季度財(cái)政和貨幣政策偏緊

      央行發(fā)布的《2021年第三季度貨幣政策報(bào)告》和10月份房地產(chǎn)企業(yè)開(kāi)發(fā)貸數(shù)據(jù)似乎給希望政策寬松的投資人一些安慰。但是，市場(chǎng)上對(duì)是否會(huì)有持續(xù)的政策寬松以及是否會(huì)有由此而來(lái)的跨年行情有較大爭(zhēng)議。因?yàn)楹暧^杠桿率在2020年為應(yīng)對(duì)疫情而上升，今年無(wú)論財(cái)政政策還是貨幣政策都是偏緊的。

       貳 貨幣政策

      2021年前三季度貨幣政策力度指數(shù)為44.3，與上半年的44.4相比有所下降，與2020年同期的55.2相比明顯偏小。貨幣政策力度指數(shù)的下降，主要是因?yàn)閿?shù)量型貨幣政策工具收緊略有偏快，M2和社融存量同比增速都下降較快。

        叁 財(cái)政政策

        2021年前三季度財(cái)政政策力度指數(shù)為47.8，與一季度的46.1和上半年的46.7相比略有升高，這主要是因?yàn)榍叭径鹊某嘧致矢哂谝患径群蜕习肽甑某嘧致?。但是，不管是與疫情之下的2020年相比，還是與疫情之前的2018年和2019年相比，2021年以來(lái)財(cái)政政策力度都相對(duì)偏小。從子指標(biāo)來(lái)看，財(cái)政政策力度偏小主要是受到財(cái)政支出進(jìn)度偏慢和財(cái)政收入增速相對(duì)偏快兩方面因素的影響。

       肆 2018年底的跨年行情

      雖然4季度經(jīng)濟(jì)可能在3季度低基數(shù)基礎(chǔ)上環(huán)比上行，但明年1、2季度的經(jīng)濟(jì)壓力還比較大。因此，政府出臺(tái)政策也會(huì)相機(jī)抉擇。在政策支持下，股市的跨年行情也有可能。通過(guò)分析2018年10月到2019年4月份的市場(chǎng)反彈，我們發(fā)現(xiàn)有利好因素刺激的板塊會(huì)持續(xù)走強(qiáng)。2018年10月到2018年4月，A股全部28個(gè)行業(yè)均取得正收益，其中漲幅居前的板塊為農(nóng)林牧漁、綜合、計(jì)算機(jī)、通信和房地產(chǎn)；而漲幅居后的行業(yè)為銀行、鋼鐵、采掘、公用事業(yè)和建筑裝飾。上漲居前的板塊估值在2018年10月都處在歷史較低水平。農(nóng)林牧漁板塊的上漲主要來(lái)自生豬價(jià)格的上漲；綜合板塊則是其中的一些公司業(yè)績(jī)持續(xù)超預(yù)期。而漲幅落后的行業(yè)鋼鐵和采掘是周期性行業(yè)，銀行、公用事業(yè)和建筑裝飾也是因?yàn)槭袌?chǎng)對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)的悲觀預(yù)期。

      伍 當(dāng)下買什么？ 

      因此，當(dāng)下如果有跨年反彈行情，我們認(rèn)為還是從景氣度和估值兩方面選擇板塊會(huì)比較穩(wěn)妥。當(dāng)下，處在歷史估值較低水平的行業(yè)有醫(yī)藥、電子和輕工制造等板塊。盡管經(jīng)濟(jì)可能走弱，這些低估值板塊中有一些未來(lái)仍會(huì)保持景氣度，值得配置。

I. Tight policies 

The 3Q2021 China Monetary Policy Report along with the news that loans to property developers grew month-on-month in October gave market signs that easing policies are on the way. While some doubt that this easing policy can sustain, others believe that government would continue to loosen monetary and fiscal policy. Well, that could be true. 

II. Monetary policy 

According to the People’s University of China in 9M2021 both monetary and fiscal policy in China were stringent. The monetary policy intensity index in 9M2021 was 44.3 versus 44.4 in 1H2021 and 55.2 in 2020 due to that the year-on-year growth rate slowed down for both M2 and Aggregate Social Financing. 

III. Fiscal policy 

Fiscal policy intensity index was 47.8 in 9M2021 versus 46.1 in 1Q2021 and 46.7 in 1H2021. But it was smaller than in 2020 and 2019 due to the slower fiscal expenditure and faster fiscal income. While 4Q2021 could see economy grow quarter-on-quarter due to the lower base in 3Q2021,economy in 1Q2022 and 2Q 2022 could be faced with challenges due to high base in 2021. Hence, we believe that easing policies could come out at appropriate timing.

IV. Sectors performance in late 2018 market rebound

We analyzed the rebound of A-share in late 2018 and early 2019 and found out that those sectors with low valuation and promising prospects outperformed. From October 19th 2018 to April 8th 2019 all of the 28 sectors in A-share rose. The top-performing sectors were farming and fishery, conglomerate, computer, telecommunication and property sector. For farming and fishery sector the rising swine prices gave it a strong boost. Conglomerate sector rallied due to that some stocks in the sector delivered earnings growth better than expected continuously. The sectors lagged behind included bank, mining, iron and steel, construction and decoration and utilities.These sectors, while being valued at low valuation levels, actually reflected the pessimism of market to the broad economy. Now pharmaceutical, electronic and light industrial sector etc are at their historical lows, among which some have a bright future despite the slowing economy.

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