精品网曝门白浆一区二区三区_国产精品线在线精品国语_亚洲国产三级在线观看看_日本在线一区二区三区免费观看_亚洲成a人片在线观看无遮挡_久久99精品久久久久婷婷_精品国产aⅴ_蜜臀av电影在线观看_欧美一区二区三区四区在线观看_狠狠色丁香婷婷久久综合考虑

     壹 兩家財(cái)務(wù)造假的公司

     近期因某家上市公司的財(cái)務(wù)欺詐導(dǎo)致投資人遭受?chē)?yán)重?fù)p失。但在嚴(yán)刑峻法下，投資人的損失可以大部分獲得賠償。另外一家以預(yù)制膜起家的企業(yè)在2015年至2018年分別虛增利潤(rùn)總額23.81億元、30.89億元、39.74億元和24.77億元，四年累計(jì)虛增利潤(rùn)總額119.21億元?？鄢撛隼麧?rùn)，該公司連續(xù)四年凈利潤(rùn)實(shí)際為負(fù)。該公司實(shí)際控制人鋃鐺入獄，而股票也在下跌近90%以后退市。投資人也遭受?chē)?yán)重?fù)p失。

     貳 一個(gè)財(cái)務(wù)指標(biāo)

     投資人應(yīng)該非常關(guān)心如何回避這些造假的企業(yè)？我們通過(guò)研究發(fā)現(xiàn)有一個(gè)財(cái)務(wù)指標(biāo)比較有效，就是營(yíng)運(yùn)資金占銷(xiāo)售收入的比例。所謂營(yíng)運(yùn)資金就是應(yīng)收賬款+存貨+預(yù)付賬款減去應(yīng)付賬款+預(yù)收賬款+合同負(fù)債。營(yíng)運(yùn)資金實(shí)質(zhì)上是維持企業(yè)運(yùn)營(yíng)的生命線(xiàn)。只要有營(yíng)運(yùn)資金，企業(yè)就能夠活下去。對(duì)于一些運(yùn)營(yíng)好的企業(yè)，比如有些在消費(fèi)、計(jì)算機(jī)或者工程機(jī)械行業(yè)的企業(yè)，營(yíng)運(yùn)資金可能是負(fù)值。即企業(yè)只需要開(kāi)動(dòng)設(shè)備，就有供貨商提供原材料，企業(yè)等生產(chǎn)出產(chǎn)品收回貨款后再支付供貨商的賬款就可以。因此，這些企業(yè)的運(yùn)營(yíng)如同印鈔機(jī)一般創(chuàng)造利潤(rùn)。但是，對(duì)于一些運(yùn)營(yíng)較差的企業(yè)，營(yíng)運(yùn)資金占銷(xiāo)售收入的比例往往很高。

     叁 70%是個(gè)預(yù)警信號(hào)

     我們研究發(fā)現(xiàn)，無(wú)論是近期披露的造假企業(yè)還是前述以預(yù)制膜起家的企業(yè)，當(dāng)營(yíng)運(yùn)資金占比提升到銷(xiāo)售收入的70%的時(shí)候，企業(yè)的運(yùn)營(yíng)就難以為繼了。這背后的道理就是一個(gè)企業(yè)如想創(chuàng)造一元錢(qián)的銷(xiāo)售收入，需要投入7毛錢(qián)的營(yíng)運(yùn)資金。因?yàn)樾枰度刖S持企業(yè)運(yùn)營(yíng)的資金太多了，因此，往往在這個(gè)財(cái)務(wù)指標(biāo)達(dá)到70%之后就會(huì)爆出企業(yè)造假的消息。企業(yè)可以在三張財(cái)務(wù)報(bào)表上分別造假，但是很難在現(xiàn)金流上造假。而三張報(bào)表之間都存在勾稽關(guān)系，通過(guò)將資產(chǎn)負(fù)債表和利潤(rùn)表相結(jié)合，就比較容易發(fā)現(xiàn)問(wèn)題。

     肆 美國(guó)債收益率上升

     A股上漲，港股下跌。鋼鐵板塊漲幅居前。因鐵礦石空頭減少，鐵礦石大幅上漲。港股下跌，因擔(dān)憂(yōu)美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)主席鮑威爾在第二個(gè)任期將會(huì)加緊回收流動(dòng)性。周二美國(guó)10年期國(guó)債收益率上升到1.66%，投資人對(duì)此感到擔(dān)憂(yōu)，美國(guó)科技股繼續(xù)調(diào)整。我們之前分析過(guò)，美國(guó)10年期國(guó)債收益率上漲空間是有限的，因美國(guó)當(dāng)前的巨額債務(wù)。詳情請(qǐng)見(jiàn)美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)能退出寬松貨幣政策嗎？雖然美國(guó)總統(tǒng)拜登釋放了5000萬(wàn)桶石油儲(chǔ)備，但是美國(guó)石油協(xié)會(huì)認(rèn)為這對(duì)市場(chǎng)的影響可能僅僅是短暫的，油價(jià)上漲。歐洲股市因疫情嚴(yán)重而承壓。

I. Two companies that made financial fraud

Recently a listed company causedinvestors to incur big losses due to financial fraud. These investors could becompensated by the company’s owner, related managers and directors along withauditing firm and legal firm. Other investors are not that lucky. A listedcompany with its main business in precursor film increased its net profit falselyby RMB 2.381 billion, 3.089 billion, 3.974 billion and 2.477 billion respectivelyfrom 2015 to 2018. The aggregated net profit increased falsely was RMB 11.921billion.The owner of the company was sentenced to be in jail for years. The company’s stockwas delisted after it fell close to 90%. Its stock investorssuffered big losses.

II. A financial ratio

Sohow to check out whether a company is making financial fraud is very importantfor stock investors. We have found out a financial ratio which is likely to behelpful. It is working capital divided by sales in the same year. Workingcapital is the sum of account receivables, inventory and prepaid account minus thesum of account payable, deposit received and contract liability. The workingcapital is the life line of a company to some extent. As long as a company has moneyfor working capital, it can survive.

III. 70% is the threshold

Wefound out that if the ratio of working capital divided by sales in the sameyear reaches 70%, it would not be far from the point that the company wasrevealed financial fraud. This is true in both companies mentioned above. The 70%of the ratio means that a company has to invest RMB 0.7 for RMB 1 sales, whichis not sustainable. This financial ratio combines items in both balance sheetand income sheet. As items in the three financial sheets of a company has articulation,it is easier to find out problems if combining items in two or three sheets.

IV. The US 10-year treasury yield rose

A-share rose while HK stocks fell. Marketis concerned that in the second term the Fed chairman Powell would hasten withdrawingliquidity. The US 10-year treasury yield rose to 1.66% on Tuesday from 1.54% last Friday. Bank and energy stocks rose while tech stocks continue to fall for a second day.

聲明：本市場(chǎng)點(diǎn)評(píng)由北京楓瑞資產(chǎn)管理有限公司（以下簡(jiǎn)稱(chēng)“楓瑞資產(chǎn)”）“楓瑞視點(diǎn)”微信公眾號(hào)提供和擁有版權(quán)，授權(quán)上海海獅資產(chǎn)管理有限公司轉(zhuǎn)載。在任何情況下文中信息或所表述的意見(jiàn)不構(gòu)成對(duì)任何人的投資建議，楓瑞資產(chǎn)不對(duì)任何人因使用本文中的內(nèi)容所引發(fā)的損失負(fù)任何責(zé)任。未經(jīng)楓瑞資產(chǎn)書(shū)面授權(quán)，本文中的內(nèi)容均不得以任何侵犯楓瑞資產(chǎn)版權(quán)的方式使用和轉(zhuǎn)載。市場(chǎng)有風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，投資需謹(jǐn)慎。