周二A股和港股均上漲，A股量能繼續(xù)提升，港股量能略有下降。A股申萬28個行業(yè)中17個上漲，比周一增加兩個行業(yè)，其中電氣設(shè)備、國防軍工和醫(yī)藥生物漲幅領(lǐng)先，商業(yè)貿(mào)易、紡織服裝和通信跌幅居前。抱團股全面上漲。港股周二是期指結(jié)算日，12個行業(yè)中10個上漲，僅能源和金融行業(yè)下跌，漲幅居前的是醫(yī)療保健、工業(yè)和綜合業(yè)。北上資金凈流入38億人民幣，南下資金凈流入32.6億港幣。貴州茅臺2020年收入和凈利潤分別增長11%和13%，每股派發(fā)股利19.293元，50%的股息支付率，但只有0.9%的股息率。股息率較低因為估值較高。
對市場不悲觀。A股經(jīng)過連續(xù)五周下跌后，上周有所反彈。本周開始的兩個交易日股市繼續(xù)上漲，但成交量一直處在較低水平。1季度是全年GDP同比增速的高點，但是不同企業(yè)的業(yè)績走勢不會完全跟GDP增速一致。去年全年受疫情影響的行業(yè)今年業(yè)績會走出逐季提高的趨勢。部分抱團股的估值仍處在歷史較高水平，我們認(rèn)為仍有下調(diào)的空間。由于去年是結(jié)構(gòu)性行情，抱團股上漲，而大多數(shù)股票股價沒有表現(xiàn)。所以，今年抱團股估值下調(diào)也不會對其他股票產(chǎn)生較大影響。我國經(jīng)濟向好，好企業(yè)會層出不窮，部分抱團股的走勢不代表整體市場走勢。
通脹是轉(zhuǎn)瞬即逝的嗎？市場對通脹是否能夠如美聯(lián)儲主席鮑威爾和財長耶倫所預(yù)計的那樣短暫升高表示懷疑。上周五公布的美國2月核心個人支出平減指數(shù)同比上漲1.4%，低于市場預(yù)期的1.5%。該數(shù)據(jù)暫時緩解了市場對通脹的擔(dān)憂。10年期國債收益率也隨之下降到1.67%。一直看漲股市的資深策略分析師亞蒂尼認(rèn)為，3、4、5月份通脹由于基數(shù)的原因會走高，可能達到2.5-2.8%的水平，但這只是反應(yīng)基數(shù)效應(yīng)。如果到了3季度，通脹仍然保持這樣的高位，那就是一個真正的問題。雖然通脹是一個風(fēng)險，但他認(rèn)為美國經(jīng)濟將會強勁增長，帶動企業(yè)盈利增速超預(yù)期。他預(yù)測標(biāo)普500年底目標(biāo)價為4300，對照周二收盤價有8%的上漲空間；2022年底目標(biāo)價為4800。
美股微跌。十年期國債收益率上升壓制科技股。美國年初以來IPO達到100多起，融資額創(chuàng)出歷史新高，對美股的走勢形成壓制。
Both A-share and HK stocks continued rally on Tuesday. 17 out of 28 sectors rose in A-share with electric equipment, military defense and healthcare leading the market. Most of the group-holding stocks rallied. Only 2 out of 12 sectors in HK market fell, which were energy and financials. Healthcare, industrial and conglomerate sector rose the most. North-bound and south-bound capital saw net inflow of RMB 3.8 billion and HK$3.26 billion respectively. Kweichow Moutai released 2020 earnings results with revenue and net profit up 11% and 13% respectively. It announced dividend of RMB 19.29 per share, which is 52% dividend payout ratio and 0.9% dividend yield. The dividend yield is not high due to the stock’s high valuation.
It’s no need to be pessimistic about the stock market. The first two trading days saw timid trading volume in A-share despite that the market rose. While some group-holding stocks still enjoy hefty valuation, they would not affect other stocks with solid fundamentals and low valuation. It is worth reminding that in 2020 only group-holding stocks rose while other stocks’ prices remained timid. Some companies were affected by the pandemic throughout 2020. In 2021they would see both earnings and valuation improvement. Their stock prices would not be affected by the continuous correction of some group-holding stocks.
Would inflation be transient? Market doubts that inflation would be transient as expected by Fed Chairman Powell and the Minister of Treasury Yellen. According to long-time bull Ed Yardeni inflation might touch 2.5-2.8% over March and May simply because of the low base in 2020. He remained bullish on stocks and set his year-end target for SP 500 at 4400, which is about 8% up potential from Tuesday close and 2022 price target at 4800.
The US stocks fell slightly. 10-year treasury yield touched 14-month high and Tech stocks were pressured.
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