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     壹 龍頭企業(yè)紛紛募集資金

     在新能源車(chē)和儲(chǔ)能行業(yè)快速發(fā)展之際，行業(yè)內(nèi)公司紛紛通過(guò)多種融資方式籌集資金。11月24日，某電解液龍頭企業(yè)公告定擬定增募資不超過(guò)55億元，計(jì)劃將其中的44億元用于年產(chǎn)10萬(wàn)噸新型電解質(zhì)鋰鹽項(xiàng)目，剩下的11億元用于補(bǔ)充流動(dòng)資金。值得注意的是，就在今年5月，該公司才剛剛完成一輪11.4億元的定增。動(dòng)力電池和隔膜龍頭企業(yè)也分別發(fā)布了巨額定增計(jì)劃。11月22日晚間，隔膜龍頭企業(yè)披露非公開(kāi)發(fā)行預(yù)案，公司擬定增募資不超128億元，用于新增鋰電池隔膜項(xiàng)目、鋁塑膜項(xiàng)目等項(xiàng)目及補(bǔ)充流動(dòng)資金。其中98億元用于擴(kuò)產(chǎn)，30億元用于補(bǔ)充流動(dòng)資金。11月15日晚間，動(dòng)力電池龍頭企業(yè)發(fā)布《關(guān)于調(diào)整向特定對(duì)象發(fā)行股票方案的公告》，把募集資金總額從不超過(guò)582億元下調(diào)到不超過(guò)450億元，主要用于擴(kuò)充產(chǎn)能。而一家A-H兩地上市的動(dòng)力電池龍頭企業(yè)年內(nèi)在H股兩次融資，分別獲得138億港元和299億港元的資金。不光是中國(guó)企業(yè)忙于擴(kuò)充產(chǎn)能，韓國(guó)在動(dòng)力電池領(lǐng)域一個(gè)主要參與者LG Energy Solution（LG新能源）計(jì)劃在2021年IPO，擬融資金額預(yù)計(jì)約100億美元。

     貳 資本投入強(qiáng)度大幅提升

     這些企業(yè)短期內(nèi)大規(guī)模擴(kuò)產(chǎn)，導(dǎo)致資本投入強(qiáng)度大幅度提升。以前述動(dòng)力電池龍頭企業(yè)為例，從2014年到2020年，其資本支出占銷(xiāo)售收入比例每年均在21-36%的區(qū)間。而隔膜龍頭企業(yè)從2018年開(kāi)始資本強(qiáng)度大幅度提升，從之前每年的資本支出占銷(xiāo)售收入比例不足9%大幅提升到60%上下。隨之而來(lái)的是自由現(xiàn)金流大幅下降，從2018年到2020年，其每年的自由現(xiàn)金流為-12到-16億人民幣。

     叁 產(chǎn)能會(huì)不會(huì)過(guò)剩？

     我們對(duì)比了傳統(tǒng)能源企業(yè)在高峰期的資本支出強(qiáng)度，發(fā)現(xiàn)該傳統(tǒng)能源龍頭企業(yè)在2004到2008年每年的資本強(qiáng)度一直保持在33-43%的水平，2009年資本強(qiáng)度下降到26%，之后逐漸下降，近幾年都在個(gè)位數(shù)的水平。因?yàn)檫^(guò)去10年傳統(tǒng)能源企業(yè)一直遭遇產(chǎn)能過(guò)剩的困擾。當(dāng)前的新能源會(huì)不會(huì)在大規(guī)模擴(kuò)產(chǎn)之后面臨同樣的產(chǎn)能過(guò)剩問(wèn)題呢？

     肆 市場(chǎng)仍缺乏方向

     A股縮量下跌，港股縮量上漲。市場(chǎng)仍處在缺乏方向的振蕩中，一些冷門(mén)股表現(xiàn)較好。美股因感恩節(jié)休市。歐洲股市上漲，盡管疫情仍在加劇。

I . Capacity expansion

Companies in new energy sector recently has expanded capacity aggressively as the sector is at a booming stage. A leading producer of LiPF6 announced that it would raise capital at RMB 5.5 billion via private placement with RMB 4.5 billion to expand production capacity of 10-tonne electrolyte lithium salt and the remaining RMB 1 billion to supplement working capital. 

Before that the leading player in EV cell also announced that it would adjust down fund raised from RMB 58.2 billion to no more than RMB 45billion with a purpose to expand its EV cell production capacity. Another EV cell player with A and H dual listing has raised HK$ 13.8 billion and 29.9 billion respectively via two private placements recently. 

Also a renowned battery separator producer announced that it would raise no more than RMB 12.8 billion via private placement to increase production capacity. Not only Chinese players are busy in raising money to expand capacity. So do international players. LG Energy Solution, a leading EV cell player in South Korea is expected to raise US$ 10billion via IPO.

II. Capital expenditure intensity increased sharply

The capital expenditure intensity, which is capital expenditure in a year divided by revenue in that year, has increased sharply due to the fast capacity expansion for these companies in new energy sector. Take the example of the leading EV cell player in China, its capital expenditure intensity was at 21%-36% from 2014 to 2020. The battery separator player’s capital expenditure intensity was below 8% before 2018 but increased sharply to around 60% from 2018.

III. Would the production capacity become surplus?

We checked a leading coal miner’s capital expenditure intensity. It was at 33-43% from 2004 to 2008 and fell to 26% in 2009. From 2009 due to production capacity surplus this ratio fell continuously and was below 10% lately. We doubt that the new energy sector might face the same production surplus issue after this capacity expansion race.

IV. Market still lacks direction

A-share fell while HK stocks rose slightly. Volume was light in both markets. The US market closed due to the Thanksgiving holiday. The European market rose despite the spreading pandemic.

聲明：本市場(chǎng)點(diǎn)評(píng)由北京楓瑞資產(chǎn)管理有限公司（以下簡(jiǎn)稱“楓瑞資產(chǎn)”）“楓瑞視點(diǎn)”微信公眾號(hào)提供和擁有版權(quán)，授權(quán)上海海獅資產(chǎn)管理有限公司轉(zhuǎn)載。在任何情況下文中信息或所表述的意見(jiàn)不構(gòu)成對(duì)任何人的投資建議，楓瑞資產(chǎn)不對(duì)任何人因使用本文中的內(nèi)容所引發(fā)的損失負(fù)任何責(zé)任。未經(jīng)楓瑞資產(chǎn)書(shū)面授權(quán)，本文中的內(nèi)容均不得以任何侵犯楓瑞資產(chǎn)版權(quán)的方式使用和轉(zhuǎn)載。市場(chǎng)有風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，投資需謹(jǐn)慎。