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     壹 美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)擬加快縮減債券購買規(guī)模

     美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)主席鮑威爾在周二國會(huì)作證時(shí)指出應(yīng)該把通脹暫時(shí)的這個(gè)詞換成是持久的，并指出將會(huì)在12月14-15日的議息會(huì)議上討論加快縮減債券購買。美股市場(chǎng)隨之大跌。我們之前在楓瑞視點(diǎn)微信公眾號(hào)中發(fā)表過多篇文章探討通脹是否持續(xù)性以及美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)能否退出量化寬松的政策，包括《你在哪個(gè)陣營？美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)能退出寬松貨幣政策嗎？市場(chǎng)不相信美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)能夠退出寬松貨幣政策等。

     貳 奧密克戎對(duì)市場(chǎng)的沖擊未知

     事實(shí)證明，通脹可能會(huì)較長時(shí)間保持在高位，這將會(huì)給美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)退出政策帶來較大壓力。從這個(gè)角度看，鮑威爾的突然鴿轉(zhuǎn)鷹是可以理解的。只不過在奧密克戎壓境的背景下，令市場(chǎng)有點(diǎn)難以接受。當(dāng)然，在美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)本月議息會(huì)議之前，關(guān)于奧密克戎的情況可能會(huì)變得更清晰，包括當(dāng)前疫苗是否能夠應(yīng)對(duì)該病毒以及傳染性是否足以讓全球重回到2020年3月的隔離狀態(tài)中。如果奧密克戎能夠比預(yù)期好，則美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)加快回收流動(dòng)性是理所當(dāng)然的。但是，回收流動(dòng)性對(duì)美股的沖擊也要不容小覷。

     叁 美股估值處在高位

     當(dāng)前美股的估值處在歷史高位。以美股市值比GDP這個(gè)股神巴菲特經(jīng)常采用的指標(biāo)看，現(xiàn)在的估值是215%，為歷史上的最高水平。1929年，在市場(chǎng)崩盤之前股票市值對(duì)GDP的比例為100%。2000年，這個(gè)比值最高為150%。在新冠疫情發(fā)生之后，美股的估值一直處在較高水平，所以高估值不意味著股市調(diào)整。但是如果經(jīng)濟(jì)基本面變差，則股市將會(huì)有較大幅度的調(diào)整。所以，投資者一方面要關(guān)注奧密克戎的消息，另一方面就是關(guān)注美國經(jīng)濟(jì)是否有下行的壓力。我們從庫存周期判斷，美國經(jīng)濟(jì)有可能在3季度達(dá)到此次復(fù)蘇的高點(diǎn)，之后將會(huì)面臨回調(diào)。如果此判斷成立，則美國股市有可能會(huì)在近期就面臨調(diào)整。

     肆 美國股票和國債收益率下跌

     港股和A股反彈。房地產(chǎn)、金融等價(jià)值板塊漲幅領(lǐng)先，而光伏等賽道行業(yè)調(diào)整。因隆基宣布降低硅片價(jià)格，光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)鏈面臨壓力。美股開盤上漲，但隨著在加利福尼亞發(fā)現(xiàn)第一例奧密克戎病例的消息傳出，股市隨之下跌，旅游股跌幅居前。該病例11月22日從南非回到美國，已打了兩劑疫苗，當(dāng)前癥狀溫和，無需入院。美國防疫專家福喜指出該病毒更易于傳播，發(fā)生疫苗逃逸。美國10年期國債收益率下跌到1.41%。

I. The Fed would discuss faster taper 

The Federal Reservechairman Powell said that inflation was not transient and that the Fed planned to discuss faster tapering on the upcoming FOMC on Dec. 14-15th. We have discussed inflation in previous articles published in our official wechat Maple Insight. Our conclusion is that inflation is persisting rather than transient. Amidst the rising risk from Omicron market is surprised that the Fedcould hasten tapering. According to pandemic experts it would take another two weeks for them to learn more about Omicron. By that time the Fed could also determine whether they should go ahead with faster tapering or not.

II. Valuation is at high level

It is noteworthy that liquidity withdrawing would make the US equity face pressure, especially at current valuation levels. The US equity market cap to GDP ratio at this moment is 215% versus 100% at the peak level in1929 and 150% before the 2000 internet bubble crash. The valuation of equity inthe pandemic era has been high and would not cause the stock market to fall unless that economy goes down. 

III. 3Q2022 might the peak of the US economy

We deem that 3Q2021 might be the peak of the US economy in this recovery and from 4Q2021 on the US economy would come down gradually. The US stocks might be faced with headwind in the near term. We need to pay attention to any downward pressure from economy and at the same time towatch any development from Omicron.

IV. The first case emerged in the US

Both A-share and HK stocks rose. Financials and property sector rose the most while photovoltaic sector fell due to that the leading player lowered silicon chip prices. The US stocks fell sharply as the first case of Omicron was found at San Francisco. The patient has been fully vaccinated. He has mild symptoms and does not need to be hospitalized. The travelling stocks fell sharply. The10-year treasury yield fell to 1.41%. WHO said that 23 countries have found Omicron cases and expected the number to grow. WHO suggested that the tools to prevent the transmission of other variants would also apply well to Omicron.

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