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上周納斯達(dá)克引領(lǐng)全球股指上漲。全球16個(gè)主要國家和地區(qū)指數(shù)（包括主要發(fā)達(dá)國家和金磚五國以及亞洲主要國家和地區(qū)）除英國富時(shí)指數(shù)微跌外均上漲。從各國經(jīng)濟(jì)領(lǐng)先指標(biāo)看，大多超出市場預(yù)期。美國3月供應(yīng)管理協(xié)會(huì)制造業(yè)采購經(jīng)理人指數(shù)（PMI）達(dá)到1983年12月以來的新高，達(dá)到64.2。IHS Markit數(shù)據(jù)顯示，經(jīng)季節(jié)調(diào)整后，歐元區(qū)今年3月季調(diào)后制造業(yè)PMI終值意外略上修，由62.4調(diào)高至62.5，為1997年6月有紀(jì)錄以來最高水平，且已連續(xù)9個(gè)月擴(kuò)張。相比之下，雖然我國3月官方制造業(yè)PMI略超預(yù)期，但財(cái)新制造業(yè)PMI意外下跌到去年5月份的水平，盡管仍在擴(kuò)張區(qū)間。反應(yīng)我國經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇的動(dòng)能可能略顯不足。

反彈行情堅(jiān)守低估值。上周A股和港股均反彈。A股申萬28個(gè)行業(yè)中23個(gè)上漲，食品飲料、休閑服務(wù)和電子行業(yè)漲幅領(lǐng)先，而傳媒、非銀金融和商業(yè)貿(mào)易領(lǐng)跌。港股上周因受難節(jié)只有四個(gè)交易日，恒生12個(gè)綜合行業(yè)中2個(gè)下跌，分別為必需消費(fèi)和公用事業(yè)，醫(yī)療保健、科技和工業(yè)漲幅領(lǐng)先。我們認(rèn)為受經(jīng)濟(jì)景氣度帶動(dòng)，A股和港股有望繼續(xù)反彈，但不易對反彈過于樂觀。首先，核心資產(chǎn)的估值遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)沒有達(dá)到合理的水平。另外，從上周發(fā)布的2020年業(yè)績看，有些公司的業(yè)績稍微有一點(diǎn)低于預(yù)期，就會(huì)遭到市場拋售，也反應(yīng)市場對核心資產(chǎn)的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)偏好降低。其次，宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)好轉(zhuǎn)帶動(dòng)美國國債收益率繼續(xù)上行。市場目前預(yù)期到1.8-2%的水平。盡管國債收益率上行最陡峭的階段已經(jīng)過去，但是，未來如果上行幅度超出預(yù)期，對高估值個(gè)股仍有較大壓力。我們?nèi)匀徽J(rèn)為低估值個(gè)股會(huì)有較好表現(xiàn)，包括銀行、周期以及受益經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇的板塊。從這個(gè)角度而言，我們認(rèn)為港股將會(huì)比A股有更好的表現(xiàn)。主要原因是這些低估值股票在港股的估值更低，而且港股投資者更關(guān)注盈利恢復(fù)情況。而隨著全球經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇，這些板塊的盈利將會(huì)逐季增長。低估值和盈利持續(xù)增長的股票將會(huì)在今年占據(jù)優(yōu)勢地位。

美國3月非農(nóng)就業(yè)人數(shù)大超預(yù)期。受到服務(wù)業(yè)強(qiáng)勁復(fù)蘇的帶動(dòng)，美國3月非農(nóng)就業(yè)達(dá)到916,000，這是2020年8月以來的最高水平，遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)高于市場預(yù)期的675,000。失業(yè)率也下降到6%。受這一消息帶動(dòng)，美股大漲，道指和標(biāo)普均創(chuàng)出歷史新高，10年期美債收益率保持在1.71%。美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)面臨采取緊縮措施的壓力。

Nasdaq led the global stock market rally last week. Among global 16 major indexes including major developed countries and BRICs as well as major Asian stock markets, only FTSE Index in the UK fell slightly last week. All of the other stock markets rose boosted by better-than-expected economic data. The US ISM manufacturing Purchasing Manager’s Index （PMI） in March came in as 64.2, the highest since Dec. 1983. IHS Markit PMI for Europe in March was adjusted from the initial reading of 62.4 up to 62.5, the highest since June 1997. European PMI has been above the threshold 50 for nine months in a row. China’s official manufacturing PMI in March was also above expectation. Yet Caixin PMI, which mainly measures the situation of the middle- to small-scale enterprises, fell to the level of last May but maintained above 50, implying that China’s economy probably doesn’t rebound as strongly as expected.

Stick to low-valued stocks in rebounding stage.Last week both A-share and HK stock market rebounded after continuously falling for weeks. We believe that low-valued stocks would be good choices in market rebounding. Firstly, the so-called core assets’ valuation is still at hefty levels. Some stocks’ prices fell sharply recently as their 2020 earnings missed to some extent, reflecting that market has become picky for these core assets. Secondly, the US 10-year Treasury yield would continue to rise as economy recovers quickly. Market expects it to reach 1.8-2% in 2021.Further increase of the Treasury yield would still weigh on the high-valued stocks. We believe that HK stocks would perform better than A-share due to low valuation and strong earnings growth.

The non-farm payroll in March was far better than expected.DOW and SP500 reached record high. Fed is under pressureto take back liquidity as economy is on good course of recovery and inflation is going up. Market implies that the first rate hike would be at the end of 2023 rather than 2024, as guided by the Fed. Moreover, before Fed raises interest rate, it would cut back on bond purchasing scale first. Market expects that Fed would begin to taper in the 2nd half of this year. 

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