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周四A股和港股均上漲。A股申萬28個(gè)行業(yè)中25個(gè)上漲，比周三增加14個(gè)，其中鋼鐵、休閑服務(wù)和家用電器漲幅領(lǐng)先，銀行、公用事業(yè)和采掘下跌。滬深股通因港股周五受難節(jié)休市暫停。A股成交量再次回到不足7000億人民幣。港股12個(gè)行業(yè)中10個(gè)上漲，科技、醫(yī)藥和消費(fèi)行業(yè)領(lǐng)漲，公用事業(yè)和地產(chǎn)下跌。周四是港股通節(jié)前最后一個(gè)交易日。南下資金連續(xù)第五天凈流入，金額為40.5億港幣，較前一交易日提升311%。央行在國新辦新聞發(fā)布會(huì)上表示我國貨幣政策不受美國影響，未來我國貨幣政策要穩(wěn)字當(dāng)頭，保持人民幣幣值對內(nèi)和對外的穩(wěn)定。

3月財(cái)新PMI低于預(yù)期。3月財(cái)新PMI為50.6%，環(huán)比下跌0.3個(gè)百分點(diǎn)，連續(xù)4個(gè)月放緩。盡管仍然處在擴(kuò)張區(qū)間，但是已經(jīng)回到2020年5月份的水平。受外需恢復(fù)影響，新出口訂單2021年來首次回到擴(kuò)張區(qū)間。3月購進(jìn)價(jià)格指數(shù)錄得2017年12月以來最高值。受成本上升推動(dòng)，出廠價(jià)格指數(shù)升至2016年12月以來最高值。受訪企業(yè)表示，價(jià)格上漲抑制了需求的進(jìn)一步恢復(fù)。展望未來一年，制造業(yè)企業(yè)普遍相信產(chǎn)出將會(huì)繼續(xù)增長，樂觀度較2月略有放緩，但仍為過去七年以來的較高水平。

美股未來大幅上漲的可能性降低。1季度道指、標(biāo)普和納斯達(dá)克指數(shù)分別上漲7.7%、5.8%和2.7%。1季度大幅上漲之后，未來美股漲幅有限。首先，經(jīng)濟(jì)改善的斜率放緩。盡管美國經(jīng)濟(jì)仍在恢復(fù)，但未來可能會(huì)看到個(gè)人收入、采購經(jīng)理人指數(shù)以及GDP數(shù)據(jù)改善幅度放緩。其次，股市估值為22倍的動(dòng)態(tài)市盈率，處在歷史較高水平。最后，盈利增速難超預(yù)期。美國上市公司的收入增速一般是GDP增速的兩倍。2021年美國經(jīng)濟(jì)增長預(yù)計(jì)在7%，則上市公司的收入預(yù)計(jì)增長14%。目前市場預(yù)期的收入增速為9%。較高的收入增速也意味著較高的盈利增速，股票也將會(huì)持續(xù)上漲。但是，盈利上調(diào)的廣度（即上調(diào)盈利的公司數(shù)）已經(jīng)達(dá)到2010和2018年的最高點(diǎn)。前兩次高點(diǎn)之后，下調(diào)盈利的公司家數(shù)迅速增加，抑制了股市整體走勢。

美股上漲，標(biāo)普首次站上4000點(diǎn)。上周首次申請失業(yè)救濟(jì)人數(shù)高于市場預(yù)期。美國3月ISM制造業(yè)PMI錄得64.7，創(chuàng)1983年12月以來新高。

Both A-share and HK stocks rose on Thursday. 25 out of 28 sectors rosein A-share with iron and steel, leisure service and home appliance leading the market. Bank, mining and utilities sector fell. Trading volume fell to below RMB700 billion for the second time year to date. 10 out of 12 sectors in HK rose.Tech, healthcare and consumption sector rose the most. Utilities and property sector fell. Shanghai- and Shenzhen-connect trading halted as HK market closes on Good Friday. South-bound capital net inflow was HK$ 4.05 billion, the fifth-day net inflow in a row.  

March Caixin PMI came in below expectation. The Caixin/Markit Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) in March dropped to 50.6 last month — the lowest level since April 2020 — from February’s 50.9, missing analyst expectations for an uptick to 51.3. New order index rose above 50, the threshold for expansion and contraction, for the first time in 2021 as overseas demand picked up. Purchasing price index and producer price index rose to their highest level since Dec 2017 and Dec 2016 respectively. Yet firms remained strongly optimistic about the business outlook over the next year due to hopes of an end to the pandemic, a rebound in overseas demand and plans to expand capacity, the survey showed.

The upside potential might be limited for the US stocks. DOW, SP500 and Nasdaq rose 7.7%, 5.8% and 2.7% respectively. Significant gains are less likely going forward. Chief US equity strategist of Morgan Stanley believed that the economy will likely see slowing rates of change in personal income, purchasing managers indexes and GDP. Moreover, SP 500 trades at 22x price-to-earnings of 2021,which is at the high levels in history. Market is most likely to bounce up and down at current levels.

The US stocks rallied. ISM manufacturing PMI in March came in at 64.7, the highest since Dec. 1983.

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